Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, May 23, 2017

Hurricane Forecasts 2017 - Will They Pan Out or Be a Bust? Average to Above Average Year? What Happened to the forecast El Nino?

Enjoy the quiet times....
...they won't last forever.

The only thing constant is change.
Weather changes day by day ....
9 Days Until June 1st and Hurricane Season.
Are you prepared? Mother Nature is always prepared!

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Let's talk Hurricane Forecasts for the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season. First off remember it's a forecast of future possibilities based on scientific study so understand forecasts are only verified in the rear view mirror. There are so many factors to consider and most of those factors have not shown up but are forecast in the long term by other forecasts. One piece of bad data can throw off the whole equation. You know the old saying "garbage in, garbage out" that we use for computer programs? Hurricane Forecasts are made by computer programs vs a Ouija Board or picking cards from a Tarot Deck. 

Before Stephen Colbert & Jimmy Kimmel ...
...there was Johnny Carson.

Times were not so politically correct...

But people laughed... and we knew it was a comedy routine. No one laughs if the forecasts officials put out do not pan out. So, many forecasts are drawn wide on purpose so the range is easier to hit. If you have ever played archery with me in Middle School you will understand that reference. I was better at the balance beam, baton and pinball then archery...

So that said here are some of the forecasts put out. Note they are vastly different from earlier forecasts that were put out when based on an El Nino forming and slowing down this coming season. That in itself shows how poorly previous models operated in predicting an El Nino that would ramp up fast. And, to be honest that is because there were many indications that an El Nino was forming and then.... something happened. With that knowledge it's worth remembering things can change again just as fast. Weather is fluid and follows it's own rules from year to year! El Nino is named El Nino for a reason as it historically appeared around the time of Christmas.

Mike from Spaghetti Models posted TWC forecast earlier.
There's a lot of great discussion on his Facebook page.
You might want to check it out...

Below is the "official forecast" from CSU

They update it throughout the season in real time.

Link to actual forecast is below:

Way back years ago when the Internet was young and we were all talking on the only real forum around we would discuss these reports in great detail. AOL Hurricane History Board became for me an educational experience in tropical meteorology. And in order to keep up I'd have to read the report very slowly and it forced me to understand things I knew intuitively but not in the proper meteorological terminology. If you have the time go through the report slowly and learn the many factors experts use to come to their forecast conclusion. You will learn much and view the whole process with more respect. For me personally I love the analog years that are used to view this coming season in the proper perspective. As a Hurricane Historian I love the details and it goes without saying, but I'll say it again... KNOWLEDGE IS POWER and HISTORY REPEATS.


You can use the site below to study those years.

Again the CSU forecast that is now dedicated to the memory of Dr. William Gray a pioneer, iconic figure in the world of tropical meteorology. He was awesome, amazing and a totally original person who knew tropical meteorology better than anyone else. His views were often controversial but he was a compelling genius with a deep soul and sparkle to him. 

And, again the CSU forecast is updated throughout the season as factors either form or disappear and new factors previously not  predicted appear. It's easy to get a rain storm on a summer day but it takes many different variables to get a hurricane spinning. 

Jim Williams who runs also puts in a tremendous amount of time researching different cities in his data base to predict where those spinning hurricanes may make landfall. He is less about how many then he is about where... though his research is different for a busy season vs a slow season. Again, so many variables. He is right way more often than he is wrong. Putting the link to his blog that shows how much work goes into his forecast process.

Places below that need to stay vigilant!

Although they use vastly different methods many of the places Jim picked were affected by storms in the analog years that Phil put in the CSU report. Something to think on...  

For example in 1965 Hurricane Betsy crossed the Florida Keys affecting both Marathon and Key Largo. If you had a sailboat docked near Key Largo back then... you would know what I mean.

Different angle of track but landfall location exactly.

The link to the youtube video is below:

Feel free to discuss it or ask questions on a tropical weather forum online if you aren't on Twitter or some other social media. Note that his map for 2017 is shown below. Also note that his map for 2016, also shown below, came close to showing Matthew's track and the areas nearby were impacted by Matthew.



Jim being extremely detail oriented posted this:

Compares and contrasts previous forecasts.

I'll make a forecast myself. Someone... somewhere... in Hurricane Country NEEDS to be knowledgeable about how to survive a hurricane as it's very likely we will have similar hurricanes this year to Matthew that forms and tracks close in along the coastline. In a world where you can't be safe from a terrorist attack at a concert or at the Boston Marathon you can be safe from a hurricane either by properly preparing or following evacuation routes. Knowledge is power and history does repeat. Stay #Hurricane Strong.

Life would be easy if you could just ask Alexa if you were going to have a hurricane hit your city this year, but trust me that's way above Alexa's pay grade... 

You are in denial if you think it's as easy as calling Miss Cleo and sadly Miss Cleo is no more so don't you bother calling that number.. unless you know how to reach her in the world beyond. Listen to the experts and as always be #HurricaneStrong.

Besos BobbiStorm
Follow me on Twitter at @bobbistorm and check back again soon!

Ps Take a look at Hurricane Betsy doing her thing in the Florida Keys...

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