Crowd Sourcing & Civilian Volunteers After Hurricanes One of the Stories of 2017.

One of the nice things about keeping the Jewish Sabbath, as I do, is that it gives me some time offline to catch up on reading things that I meant to read yet got lost in the busy every day pace of my world both on and offline during the rest of the week. Facebook feeds swallow up time faster than water rising in Hurricane Sandy. On Shabbos with a cup of tea and a snack I can rest on the comfortable sofa and read everything from saved articles such as the one above to leafing through encyclopedias to do some reading up on something. The article above was sent out in a year end review of 2017 and caught my attention as aside from being Hurricane related it told the story I heard before of a friend's brother who helped in the rescue of a sweet older woman. The nephew of the man in the rescue is a cute little boy who talked a blue streak to me this past Sukkos in his Sukkoth about the flooding in Houston where his Grandparents and family lived. I remembered when this was happening in real time I felt that this should be the real story of 2017. The way the Network of Social Media was used by Civilian Volunteers to help save people in real time during Hurricane Harvey. Maybe it just says something larger than life about the people of Texas .... but I like to think that it's human nature rising to the top doing good deeds to make the world a better place.

2017 Hurricane Season.

Crowd Sourcing to save lives.

Civilian Volunteers

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/cajun-navy-races-from-louisiana-to-texas-using-boats-to-pay-it-forward/2017/08/28/1a010c8a-8c1f-11e7-84c0-02cc069f2c37_story.html?utm_term=.48feccfab9ff

I get tired of politics and agendas sometimes. There was a time we liked a little spin with our news but these days the spin is enough to make you dizzy before you barely get to the first commercial on the news.  If I was going to name the Person of the Year it would be the EVERYDAY PEOPLE who VOLUNTEERED and helped in the aftermath of hurricanes this year. The Cajun Navy that mobilized instantly using various social media platforms to get into flooded regions and get people out of homes that were going under water rapidly. Groups such as Chabad in Houston that were dealing with their own homes being flooded going out on search and rescue missions to help where help was needed. The sheer scope of the historic flooding in Hurricane Harvey put a huge dent into the normal fast response we expect after a hurricane. When such a large area is affected in disasters such as Katrina and Andrew the system begins to break down. But this year in particular the civilian responders jumped in when flood waters had already swallowed up their homes and the people of Houston got into their boats, trucks and waded personally into the water to help save lives in any way they could and they deserve an award. 

If you read the story of the 77 year old woman in Houston you will find out she called her son in England to tell him that flood waters had entered her 2nd flood apartment and she didn't know what to do. He called a friend in Chabad locally in England to ask if they knew someone in Houston and of course someone did and .....they put out a plea on the community WhatsApp group and immediately my friend in Raleigh's brother who lives in  Houston went out with a few volunteers to rescue the woman. More wonderfully, his wife Baila insisted she stay by them in their home for a month until she could figure out where to go and what to do as their home thankfully only had some ceiling leaks and minor damage. Stories such as this one were repeated across the area in real time as people called family, friends and clergy asking for help and again because of social media groups such as WhatsApp the message was put out in real time to a large amount of people. 

Social Media and Crowd Sourcing to me... was the game changer. Often older people trapped in homes with their ceiling falling in on them or flooding rising into their homes feel panicked and don't know where to go ... other than trying 911 and waiting to be added to the list or they call their family. 

http://lubavitch.com/news/article/2076153/Emerging-From-the-Flood-Waters-True-Kindness.html

This really begain in 2016 during Hurricane Matthew a man taking video with a drone led to the rescue of someone's brother who was watching in real time as flood waters were rising fast into his home.  During the 2017 Hurricane Season this style of self sacrifice and good will took that story to a much larger, wider level.

Amazingly a man and his dog were both saved.

Social Media being a game changer.

http://abc11.com/weather/drone-social-media-help-save-man-dog-trapped-in-flood/1550720/

The victory of human nature over Mother Nature this past summer was one of the beautiful stories to come out of the tragic flooding in Harvey and the devastation across a wide area from Irma. Many places were hit hard this year and abroad from Puerto Rico to small islands few remember the name of are still reeling while we go about our every day life in America celebrating the coming of 2018. What will 2018 bring this Hurricane Season? It's safe to say more of the same ..... unless something major breaks the pattern of Mother Nature on a rampage. This year's epic Hurricane Season has given way to epic, record breaking cold temperatures as shelters and volunteers are racing to help those in need. Locally in Raleigh a volunteer group began giving out blankets and warm drinks to homeless people who didn't want to go into a shelter. You do what you can when you can to help who you can...

Sometimes it really does take a village to help save a life. It's one thing to watch the story on the Nightly News or CNN Live and another to get a personal request in your WhatsApp feed that a woman down the block from you is about to drown in flood waters in her 2nd floor apartment and needs help. It only takes a few moments in real time in a busy WhatsApp feed to figure out who has a boat, who can find a few strong men (in the case of Chabad ...ex Israeli soldiers) to get to her and get her out to safety fast. 

Crowd Sourcing + Civilian Volunteers.

So that's my thought on the 2017 Hurricane Season. People helping people, giving time and supplies when needed or giving a donation online. It only takes a minute... it only takes a bit of time. The world has changed so fast that I can send a child money on an App in my phone faster than than I can edit this blog post and yes sometimes I get presents for my birthday just as fast. Fast can be good sometimes .. especially when flood waters are rising or someone's roof just blew away or someone watching their Twitter Feed recognizes their brother's house going under water and contacts the person who tweeted to get to their brother fast.

Something to think on...

With prayers for a safe, happy 2018 for everyone reading this and a request to dress accordingly this New Year's Eve. Flip flops may be find in Miami but if you are in New York City... bundle up it's going to be an epic cold New Year's Eve.

Besos BobbiStorm

http://www.chabad.org/library/article_cdo/aid/814118/jewish/Charity-Tzedakah.htm

https://www.npr.org/2017/12/28/574166438/in-houston-thousands-remain-displaced-as-harvey-recovery-continues

Last Day of the 2017 Hurricane Season

Palm trees grow back fast in South Florida.

Battered palm fronds hang down...

...while bright green growth grows back.

Life in the Miami after the 2017 Hurricane Season.

Coconut Grove to be specific.

So much to say and so little time ....  To explain I am in South Florida visiting my children and I was waiting for my daughter to give birth. First I attended a beach wedding a week or so ago for my son and  new daughter-in-law on St. George Island. Then I waited and waited for my daughter to give birth to a beautiful baby boy a few days ago. Sunday I'm involved in a baby shower for another baby who is due in January sometime (am I ever gonna leave Florida this winter I wonder?) and catching up with my South Florida kids. I'm short on time and far from the normal life of TWC and FOX/CNN back home in North Carolina. My younger kids use HULU, Netlfix and Roku so I it's been a long, long while since I saw Jim Cantore do a Water Vapor Loop....

I've spent much time interviewing various people from St. George to South Florida on how Hurricane Irma (and other storms) affected them as well as how the "hurricane season" in general affected them and how they will deal with the next hurricane season. Many have cleaned up and life is almost normal. Many are still arguing with insurance companies and trying to clean up trashed lawns, homes and lives. As always it's a matter of perspective. If you lost your prized oak tree that stretched across your whole yard and was witness to parties, BBQs and life you feel you lost a treasured friend and everything is so bright and nothing looks normal. If you had to remove a tree you disliked and prune the bushes life went on faster. Down in the Keys life is going on a bit slower.  Up in St. George I head some great stories I will talk on another time about how high the tide came in and how they just roll with the tide that usually flows under their elevated homes.

Ya... from SnapChat ;)

The other day after visiting my grandson in the hospital I went down to Coconut Grove with my son Levi to spend some of the day with him. I was specifically worried about him during Irma as Coconut Grove is prone to flooding and it's possible to have a sailboat land in your waterfront office. As his house is only a few blocks inland he could have lost his office and his house. Irma pushed the sailboats mostly towards the South and there was only minor damage in the parking lot. His office is awesome as Compass Realty offices usually are as they are modern, friendly and always busy with the ebb and flow of buying and selling homes any person would be lucky to own. The Real Estate Market takes a minor hit for a month or two and then bounces back fast; then again others are always looking to get deals on waterfront homes someone wants to sell. That's life.

That is life in South Florida. On the way to the hospital the other day I saw crews cutting old dead palm fronds from trees so that everything would look tropical, beautiful and as if most of South Florida wasn't terrified they would lose everything from a direct hit from a Category 5 Hurricane. Here and there you see a blue tarp on a roof or an empty space in a yard where a huge ficus tree was torn down. There are still some huge massive trees still down in Hollywood Florida on side streets ...though the main streets the tourists use are picture perfect.

Seems we are back to worrying on escaped American Crocodiles who decide to take swim on Hollywood Beach rather than a newly named land falling hurricane. In Texas some are still displaced from homes flooded by Harvey and the Florida Keys are open for business but still cleaning up where Irma did her worst redecorating on Big Pine Key and some other nearby keys. Marathon is still cleaning up; Key Largo is looking better. The same goes for Naples.

The 2017 Hurricane Season has taught us a few things. For one... the predictions for a busy season were spot on and came true even though many doubted it was just a lot of hype. Next year many will take the Hurricane Season a lot more seriously and prepare in ways they never thought they would. In general to be honest life goes on in South Florida. The horribly hot summer has given way to balmy nights and tropical breezes. Music flows in the air along side walk cafes where a Russian plays beautiful music in front of restaurant more famous for it's chocolate desserts. Last night I saw a man playing the Accordian in a Dollar Tree Parking lot and to be honest he had more money in his Tupperware container than the guy at the upscale restaurant on Hollywood Boulevard. The ironies of life. To be honest the guy sitting on the milk cartoon in front of the Dollar Tree store played the most beautiful music I've heard in a long time.

And that's South Florida....... it surprises you. Like babies who come early or babies who come late... like an impulsive drive down to Coconut Grove or an incredible surprise dinner at Brickell Centre after wandering with my younger kids through the Pamm Art Museum in Miami. The storm surge that was shown running through the streets of Miami is gone and it appears as if it was an illusion on the TV ... special effects or something. In Houston you can tell as there are scars everywhere from the flooding.

And everyone wonders the same thing...

What will the 2018 Hurricane Season bring us.... more of the same or worse? We will retire many names this year but Miami, as always, got lucky and Maria slammed into the Islands and Irma went South into Cuba before bouncing off the coast into the Lower Keys. What will the 2018 Hurricane Season bring?

Something to think on...

Besos BobbiStorm

Ps... give me a few days to get back to normal and I'll be back to daily blogs again!!

TS Rina Forms in Atlantic. Hurricane Season NOT Over Yet.

Tropical Storm Rina forms from TD 19.

Cone shows where it goes.

Based on ASCAT passes TD 19 was upgraded.

It's up there in the Atlantic.

Not a threat to the US.

It's not down near the Bahamas ...

Oddly a steady stream of moisture moves into the Caribbean.

It may not look like much up there...

But it's a named storm.

They do that in November.

They pop out out of nowhere.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... That's foreshadowing... it's not over til it's over!

UPDATED SUNDAY 5PM - Jose. Maria. Lee. Triple Tropical Trouble... Odd Models, Deep Thoughts and Some Thoughts From South Florida ... Irma Recovery

Jose Cone at 5 PM

Maria 5 PM Cone.

Some Jose talk..

Discussion from NHC.

Important parts.

"meander or drift southward"

This is so typical Jose.

Impt note...

Widespread rains for Southern New England.

Long Island. NYC. NJ.

I said "RAIN"

Let me say this about Jose.

There has been much discussion.

On a Fujiwara dance with Maria.

Should that show up in the overnight  models..

ie EURO again.

I'll go into great detail.

But I'm not sold on it.

I am sold on Jose liking to loop.

Interaction between the 2 of them.

So stay tuned...

While Lee has been downgraded...

....he's still very visible.

With regard to Maria.

Small, intense hurricane.

Capable of ramping up fast.

Much discussion online.

What will Jose's winds do...

Sadly Islands going to get slammed.

Maria tracing Irma's track.

Barbuda will get nailed again.

No one living there now but...

..truly incomprehensible 

Cranky says it best.

Follow your local statements.

It's extremely important.

Go to NWS

Check your local area.

Check them again often.

http://www.weather.gov/

I do mean NWS...

Not Uncle Bob on Facebook

Discussion from this morning still valid:

Let's start with Maria.

She's a very good place to start.

Now take a look at our tropical trio.

Triple Cones for Sunday 

Problem forecasters have is a plenty.

It's like playing 3 level chess in the tropics.

Okay let's start at the beginning. The problems forecasters have currently is that there are three storms out in the Tropical Atlantic and they may at some point be interacting with each other. So now aside from the obvious array of intangibles they have to be fluid enough to figure out how each move one makes could influence the movement of the other. Not easy being a forecaster at the NHC this season as we zoom through the alphabet awaiting our next Major Hurricane. And did I mention there is one rolling of of Africa soon? Probably not but we are knee deep in indecision in the hurricane season. Yesterday the Euro, our best pitcher, through a curve ball into the mix and showed Jose and Maria doing a Fujiwara dance. The Tweet from below was 9 hours ago, but it shows where we were last night waiting for the next model run of the Euro. Predictably, it through the Fujiwara dance out, Jose edged closer to the coastline of the US. And, when I say coastline I mean those many multiple, metropolitan areas along the coast from NJ to Maine. Now everyone awaits the next Euro run. 

Hopefully the above scenario..

..is off the menu.

I'm more focused on Maria.

But many are worried on Jose.

The models pull him North.

Odd track after that....

This is out world Sunday Morning.

Jose, Maria, Lee.

''

https://www.facebook.com/larry.cosgrove

The above picture is from Larry Cosgrove.

Check him out on Facebook.

He's one of the best Mets I know.

I know a lot ...so that's huge.

Speaking of incredible meteorologists.

Jim juxtaposes his posts.

He's layers deep.

Maria is going to trace Irma's track for a bit.

It's not good news.

But I'm just being honest.

See the HWRF model.

That's just one model above.

But it's a close up so went with it.

Cone for Maria.

Updated at 11 AM and 5 PM.

Major Hurricane down the road.

There is so much uncertainty in the models when it comes down to the details. We know it's headed to Hispaniola. Will it track North or South or directly over Hispaniola? And amazingly the models don't show it falling apart after landfall. Much depends on the timing, the exact angle of approach as to how badly Hispaniola takes a hit and how much of a hit Hispaniola takes of Maria. I have the soundtrack from one of my favorite musicals West Side Story stuck in my head today. So yeah... I know that all of you in Florida want to know if Maria is coming here. It's logical to assume... that if she is retracing Irma's footsteps she has the same choreographer and after PR and Hispaniola she wants to perform in Miami but........it's too early to tell. And, if it makes you feel any better those up in the Carolinas may be worrying more than you. 

To many this is a classic Carolina track as Maria is forecast to begin to turn off the coast of Florida. I know... (hanging my head, hard to type this) you've heard that before. It's just a dance as old as time. Somethings are forever and Florida flirting with the danger of a hurricane is high up on that list and we are only at the beginning of the story. Mike below gives a good quick, overall of the situation so check him out on Facebook as well. Though most everyone reading here is on his Facebook. My kids kept telling me all day yesterday "Mike was right" on many different things... "it wasn't a very wet storm" was the main comment with some kid adding "Mike did say that" and at this point if they were kids again I'd ask Mike to tell them to clean up their room because I'm pretty sure they'd listen to him before me.. 

As for me.. I'm in paradise.

I woke up this morning to the moon...

...just before sunrise.

The oak tree that took a beating.

And the moon peeking through. 

A good set of graphics.

Shows the complexities.

Which scenario plays out.

Or does a third develop.

Good to follow on Twitter.

Great App.

http://hurrtracker.com/

The house here where my son lives came with shutters. Everyone has the same basic shutters and some of them are up currently and some have them down currently. It's a gamble some took to get sunshine into the house and watch the sunrise and set through their window over the lake. I guess we are all gamblers living in South Florida but usually we win and the hurricanes curve out to sea or and they are someone else's problem. As I said the other day how you choose to live and where you choose to live is the biggest decision you'll make in your life. 

Being my kids several went down to the Florida Keys to Marathon with their brother-in-law who seems to have taken up residence working with FEMA. They helped out, they looked around, they watched the sunset. As my 2 year old grandson was too young he and my daughter ended up in the hotel where it's safe and there is electricity (I'm guessing generator but it's safe) and they sent these pictures which say it all. This is who we are and why we live in Florida or along the coast. AGAIN... there were over 25 years between Hurricane Betsy and Hurricane Andrew. This does not happen every day. But this year it seems to be happening every day or every other day this 2017 Hurricane Season.  The links to the wind probabilities for Jose and Maria are below. Until your city is removed for more than one advisory from the wind probabilities watch the track of Jose and hope it stays out to sea. Spoiler alert places as far inland as Rocky Mt NC are on that list as is Nova Scotia... and a good part of the Atlantic Ocean.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT2+shtml/170849.shtml?

Maria  probabilities below. Bad for the Islands. Still offshore USA.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT5+shtml/170847.shtml

Battered but beautiful the sun always rises and the sun always sets and it does so with more beauty, passion and inspiration than any place I've ever been. I'm a beach girl. I love the mountains and if you want both move to Santa Barbara or somewhere along the California coast. In truth many who could moved to the Virgin Islands to live near both and this morning despite the tremendous damage the view is beautiful.  Battered but beautiful still....

I'm going to update today if anything huge changes.

I will give a complete update tonight.

I got places to go...

...people to see.

On the road in South Florida.

Hoping Maria doesn't take this road.

Enjoying my family, friends and the view.

Bye for now Bobbi...

not really saying goodbye.

Keep reading on.

The letter below is from 1926.

It's a letter from after the 1926 Miami Hurricane.

The link translates it and explains it.

https://www.floridamemory.com/exhibits/floridahighlights/hurricane/

It's a dance as old as time.

Close up loops of Jose, Maria and Lee.

And the wide view.

Keep reading...

I'll update in length tonight.

Jose.

Still spinning.

Off the SE Coast.

Maria.

Beautiful spin.

Where she goes is the question.

Lee 

Less impressive for now.

Some thoughts tonight while waiting for a late night model to run to see if this model run is more logical and has clarity vs more questions concerning the fate of Maria and Jose. Lee is still out there to so do not forget him. By the time I finish this post and publish it we will have more information. These are just random thoughts.

I'm in Walnut Creek tonight at my son's house visiting with my children and seeing my step son who just got back into the country after being overseas for the last year and on his way soon to Arizona. I've got a lot of family obligations as well as my own work I am trying to get done documenting damage and gathering some stories from people in the path of Irma. My gosh... was it just last week we were dealing with Irma? And now we have Jose still.....Lee and Maria... add in some possible interaction between 2 of them it's going to be a long week.

We stopped in Savannah on the way down and interviewed a few people who live out near the "marsh" or as some refer to it as low country near Tybee Island. The ground around her home is muddy and hard filled with the remnants of debris that the sea deposited on her door step. The ocean water came in, flooded the marsh and cut off her cottage that is normally over the marsh so that she just saw what seemed like ocean in all directions. And, then it receded leaving mud.. and memories.

Very little real damage in Savannah though several store owners insist that River Street was flooded a bit. It was a beautiful night, a steady breeze and in the back of my mind I couldn't shake the thought that the beautiful breeze was not a harbinger of good news down the road. That strong high, holding on steering well formed tropical systems this way.

Jacksonville is cleaning up. I didn't go downtown, but around other parts of town. Many people I spoke to told me they still did not have electric and some I know were staying at hotel rooms nearby hoping to clean up soon. They seemed in shock. So much talk on the landfall being in Miami or Key West or Miami or Key West no one said much about Jacksonville being set up for historic flooding. They knew there was the possibility of flooding but not that sort of flooding and more so flooding while Irma was far to the Southwest near Naples.

As you drive down the state you see blown out billboards and signs here and there that once advertised car dealerships and generally mild tree damage. And it seems difficult to understand why so many people lost power in areas with such light damage. An investigation of that needs to be done from my perspective. I spoke to many people who just "had no power" yet very little tree damage, no flooding but no power up and down the state. It's as if the grid collapsed but that doesn't seem to make sense for places very far from landfall and the track of Irma.

Once down in Broward County you begin to see real tree damage though buildings and signs are fine. The closer you get to the coast the traffic lights are out yet... near my son's house in West Broward there is a temporary stoplight on the ground with a cop trying to watch out for problems; reminded me of the months after Andrew.

My best friend's son lives here also (big surprise huh) so she spent Shabbos here this week and we spent a good part of the day together talking hurricanes (big surprise huh...) sitting out by the lake, watching the birds, ducks and iguanas scatter about doing their thing. We walked around wandering through tree debris talking how it reminded us of our lives Post Andrew. Some houses have shutters up, some have them down but life goes on. The palm trees look better off than the oak trees that crack and break in the wind and those odd ornamental trees subdivisions put in ...... go down fast before making it to even prime time. Wind funnels through the houses at the corners of the block (especially when there are lakes in between the homes) and the wind takes down whole trees whereas trees in the middle of the block stay or fall randomly with mostly branches breaking. Everyone is mostly in a good mood. Though I heard way too many people complain "Irma was nothing" and I just stare at them. I glare at them and tell myself do not argue with fools, let you become like them.

My youngest son, another son and a daughter who joined her husband (with the 2 year old) as he has has been down in the Keys with  FEMA tonight and all of them just keep repeating to me on Whatsapp  "it looks like a war zone" so apparently your attitude towards Irma depends on your location and your understanding that you got a "BRUSH" with a hurricane not THE hurricane and YES everyone lost power no matter if they had Tropical Storm force winds or Cat 1 winds. Understand, as a child growing up here no one lost power unless they had over 100 mph winds as a rule. Here and there an avocado tree takes out someone's electric but now days you can have a day of tropical storm force winds and lose electric. Density of population yes I know ... Or is it maintenance of the grid and the system. Good to know though those new poles FPL put in down in the Keys stood up to Irma  Did I mention my 2 year old grandson was in Marathon today? Still trying to process that ... Yeah he watched the sunset with his mother  while his father is working down there. Actually everyone except the son-in-law is back on the road to Miami tonight for a family birthday party. I have the greatest family, but not your normal family, but normal for our family.

So... yes life goes on. A big royal palm tree crashed into the side of a building on Hollywood Blvd taking out chunks of concrete and a decorative wrought iron balcony and people walk under it and the yellow tape to go in and out of the frozen yogurt shop. Life goes on...

In North Miami Beach it's trying to get the trees that are down off the roads that are still blocked in some areas; here they are hoping not to put up shutters again for Maria and in Marathon it's a different world and it's hard getting past Marathon to the Lower Keys right now as they are working their way down from Marathon and using the airport as a staging area it seems.

So may I remind you the hurricane season is not over. I said early in the season I wouldn't be surprised if we make it to the N storm. Now I'm wondering if we make it past Whitney. And, as I said Friday I believed it was possible for Maria to be a Major Hurricane.

Are the Carolinas on the menu next week for the Landfall Soup of the Day? Can we collectively pray that Florida is spared another landfall this year? It's been a crazy hurricane season. Always amazes me the attitudes people have... they were lucky, they were spared or they run around bitching and complaining the storm cost them money and time and blaming it for all the problems in their life when they live far from landfall and should be kissing the debris on the street thankful that all they lost was some food in the fridge, some trees and be grateful Irma did not hit South Florida with 185 mph winds. Others are very aware, not selfish or petty or shallow and happy to be out on a Saturday Night having a drink or listening to music or enjoying the tropical breeze. And, most of us know it's not over til it's over and it's not going to be over this year until after October I believe.

I'll update the rest of the day at the top when time permits. I'm on Twitter all day updating in real time so check me out there @bobbistorm on Twitter

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Updated: 11 AM HURRICANE WATCH POSTED SFL Keys - IRMA 175 WNW at 16 MPH On the Way to South Florida.. Still Going Strong 180 MPH Cat 5. People Evacuate or Hunker Down. Jose Following Behind In Irma's Tracks Into the Islands Perhaps? Katia Moving SW to Mexico. Lee Forms After That. Busy 2017 Hurricane Season to Remember

Wind Map.

Irma makes her move.



Big news is official Hurricane Watch for S FL
In Cuba they extended TS Warnings.

Cone.

3 Day very reliable.

5 Day moves about a lot.

11 AM Cone.

Updated at 5 PM.

AGAIN... that cone follows the EYE.
The cone below shows when TS winds arrive.
It can be a day ahead of the timing above.

Understand much like Hurricane Matthew last year.

The approach to the coast parallel to the coast.

Makes it almost impossible to forecast...

..exactly if a city will get the eye.

Prepare as if you expect the eye.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/145924.shtml?gm_track#contents

Link is interactive. Use it.

The cone above changes again at 5PM

It might not but they redraw it at 5PM

Note BOTH times shown above.

11 AM Discussion.
Winds down some...good.
Otherwise no major change.
Just more of the same.
Warm water, some shear eventually.
Front passes, then short wave grabs it.
You can read it here:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/071452.shtml?



Models pulling right but...
...not all of them.

Part of her circulation is over Hispaniola.

Specifically the Dominican Republic.

Moving steadily WNW.

Long loops.
Shows where it's been.
Strength, moisture it's hauling.



Note when the eye goes over land it closes up some.
Pops back over water.
Closes again over Hispaniola.
Subtle ... I'll take any weakening at all.



You can see this above on Dvorak.
Intensity held in check close to land.
SW side over land smaller.

You can also see the front that moved down..
...through Carolinas.

More obvious on the WV Loop.




How to prepare your home:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wVsMkhtBFLM

Gas App:
Use it and then stop using your car.
Do NOT waste gas.
You may not be able to replace it.

http://www.gasbuddy.com/App

http://www.redcross.org/

'''

8 AM same intensity and forward motion.
New coordinates

MODELS

And this is the story of the day.

People evacuating.

Big wide view below.

As Irma makes her move..

.. many are moving out of her way.

You can see Irma.

You can see the High behind her.

You can see the cold front.

UP above the cold front.

Idaho.. digging dark line.

That's the "short wave" I wrote about

Irma should lift...

...but where?

Earliest arrival of TS winds.

Tropical Storm Force Winds.

Why TS winds?

Because that's when things get sketchy.

The real trouble begins.

You'll have strong early bands before that.

But the real show begins then.

Currently.

My kids deal with this Saturday morning.

I deal with this Monday morning.

That can speed up in future forecasts.

Irma keeps moving a bit faster.

Check that graphic often.

Note it speeds up close to Miami.

Not a wide margin of error.

Newest cities in wind probs.

Again I-95 traveling North inland.

Inland cities perhaps.

Raleigh... Charlotte.

Irma may be a coastal cruiser.

But she is forecast to go deep inland.

She won't be a Cat 4 or Cat 5.

But still brings down trees.

Power Outages for a long time.

Too huge a geographic area.

Takes longer to put it back.

There is the graphic below that shows this.

The trend has been to the right.

Last night Savanna was in the cross hairs.

This morning that moves up to SC.

That big blue view I love below.

It's from last night.

Irma moved a bit WNW.

But you see the story here.

Busy season as forecast.

Statistic... Longest Cat 3 on record.

This is the link below for the whole list of cities in the Wind Probs that it seems I obsess on, but I do so for a reason. The wind probabilities go out in advance of the  movement of the cone. Sometimes you go to sleep in the wind probs, wake up and you are not in them anymore. But it gives you an early heads up as to what is possible and what may be coming down the way. Sort of a chance to run to Publix, Kroger or Aldi and stock up on your "must haves" before the cone edges into your neighborhood and everyone runs to the store. It gives you a chance to think seriously on what you will or won't do. And, obviously I'm talking for people in Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina... up all the way into Virginia, Maryland and that includes our nation's capital Washington, DC. Del Marva is on the list at some point until we see which way Irma leans. Hmnn as I type this Jim just said "even Raleigh" so I started this paragraph before he started talking fast. Cantore talks faster than me, but not my much.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT1+shtml/070902.shtml

This morning's discussion is written very well. I advise you to read it for yourself. Basically it's an extrapolation of the last discussion with current model analysis added in. Irma is moving under a huge ridge being steered for now by the Bermuda High. The oldest hurricane story in the book in September. A short wave feature is supposed to move down and help grab the storm and pull it North. How fast it grabs it, where it grabs it and the angle of movement North is still up for grabs. Will it go NNW or N very hard to say for sure and each degree can mean the difference of the eye wall over West Palm Beach or it staying just off shore.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/071054.shtml?

In Puerto Rico it stayed just to the North of the island, though they went through the storm as we watched in real time on radar. The small islands it passed over will take a long time to be able to be inhabited again. Honest as I can get here. But the bigger islands like PR and now Hispaniola it has managed to crawl along North of the coastline. Can it continue that sort of track and stay just off shore South Florida or does our luck run out regarding Major Hurricanes and landfall? Obviously places like West Palm Beach that stick out the furthest East have a higher risk of an eye making landfall directly. Some models do take this west through the Keys and pull it up into the SouthWest coast making that turn back across Florida. Some models have pulled further to the East and miss a direct landfall, however Miami, Hollywood and WPB could still get Major Hurricane force winds and their associated damage with Irma's eye offshore. Irma is that BIG size wise and there isn't much in the way to keep her in check once she slides away from Hispaniola. It is worth noting that the Dominican Republic has large mountains and currently, maybe just briefly, you can see the Southwest side of Irma looks a bit ragged. I know it's hard to call a Major Category 5 Hurricane containing winds of 180 miles per hour "ragged" but I think they were a bit generous with the wind speed this morning erring on the side of caution.  We will get recon information throughout the day and see what they do at a 11 AM. I'll update at the top for the 11 AM so you can compare and contrast with the 5 AM information in the same post. Trust me the difference of 5 MPH seems little and it didn't impress me much when they downgraded Andrew 5 MPH but it's a trend and better for it to be winding down than winding up.

That said regarding wind speed; when it leaves the North Coast of Hispaniola and it's coastal waters it will move over warmer water than it has traversed so far and some of the warmest water in the Atlantic. So whatever damage some small interaction with the coastline might do it will be fed high intensity fuel once back over the Bahamas. This hurricane story has been going on since before we have records of hurricanes or ship logs of ships that made it to safety through the storm. This is what happens in that part of the world; we often live in denial in the quiet times for a decade of two that it won't happen again. And then... come September it happens again. Each hurricane is similar and each hurricane is different and unique. The water off the coast of Miami Beach is currently 88 degrees. Irma will love that sort of high octane fuel. Not good for South Florida, even if it stays off the coast.

Leaving you with this image below. It's the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season so far. The map is being worked on in real time and you can see the whole track of Irma since it left Africa; you can see the other tracks as well.

 Interesting image above.

2017 Hurricane Season so far.

Some see Lee forming soon..

A few good Tweets online.

Obviously he buys the pulling E scenario.

Understand there are many.

But this thoughts are clear and concise.

Easy to read and to see.

I don't see any reason to disagree with the above.

He's showing the center of IRMA

Not weather far from it's eye.

Below shows you even if it stays offshore..

How the wind field could look

I say "could" because it's hard to be sure.

I do believe Irma gets picked up.

It should be more clear in 24 hours.

The feature is up over Wyoming and Idaho.

Digging down and SE.

Don't look at the cold front.

Look beyond the front.

See the river of air over Nebraska... 

Pushing SE.

That is the a player.

I don't want to go long on Katia and Jose.

Katia is running away to Mexico.

Jose is following behind.

It is very possible sadly...

...it will add insult to injury to the Islands.

90 MPH Jose.

May clip the islands.

Cone below:

Jose may loop.

Stall, loop back.

End game is unsure.

But islands are in cross hairs again.

Below is the bottom line.

Most likely...

South Florida gets a landfall from a Cat 4

IF it does go inland over Florida.

All of FL could get Hurricane Force winds.

I know you are used to me arguing with the NHC ;) (not always obviously) and giving my own thoughts. It's just so close a call that it's impossible to tell where the extremely dangerous eye of Cat 5 Irma goes as it approaches Florida. While it is possible it goes through the Keys and up the SW coast of Florida history and current atmospheric synoptic features favor it turning at South Florida or just off shore and moving parallel to the coastline very similar to last year's Matthew. However, Irma is much bigger than Matthew. I'd favor the bend just off shore speeding up as it approaches Florida and then down the road it will have some interaction and it could weaken a drop from shear as it moves further North towards another landfall somewhere around South Carolina. And, I'll add that could be the SC/NC border or closer to Georgia. Just way too soon to tell. But the story is getting closer to having it's ending written. 

What can you do? Plan, prepare.. never panic and hunker down in safe spot if you stayed. Keep your family close, in one spot together in an interior room away from windows in the safest spot in your house. Let your family know where you are staying and conserve your phone power. Keep it at full power, at some point the electricity goes out. I remember one hurricane I was on the phone talking to a close friend who does hurricanes and he was telling me the lower pressures were close to me and the power went out... old PC computer sort of went dead. When the power goes out your phones should work for emergency calls to your family to tell them what is going on but do not waste that battery power it goes quickly. And, the cell phone towers could go down as well. Sorry but true.

Lastly............. I could show you pictures of Barbuda that was heavily damaged in Irma. It's there as an island but it's pretty much destroyed. I don't really want to show the pictures as I hope and pray that doesn't happen to South Florida... to Bal Harbor that I know well or South Beach or Hollywood Boardwalk or Bayside or the new beautiful Brickell Centre in downtown Miami but it may. The pictures are passed around online. It looks like a nuclear bomb went off... some concrete structures are partially standing. Take this hurricane very seriously and do not expect a miracle but please feel free to pray for one. And, give charity while you can to places who were destroyed and people in need at the Red Cross. 

http://www.redcross.org/

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter. Follow me for more immediate updates or discussion. I'd love to play a nice Jimmy Buffett song today, but you need this information way more. Stay safe, stay strong! I'll update again at 11 AM at the top and I may add some links here throughout the day for helpful sites.