Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, September 07, 2017

Updated: 11 AM HURRICANE WATCH POSTED SFL Keys - IRMA 175 WNW at 16 MPH On the Way to South Florida.. Still Going Strong 180 MPH Cat 5. People Evacuate or Hunker Down. Jose Following Behind In Irma's Tracks Into the Islands Perhaps? Katia Moving SW to Mexico. Lee Forms After That. Busy 2017 Hurricane Season to Remember

Wind Map.

Irma makes her move.

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Big news is official Hurricane Watch for S FL
In Cuba they extended TS Warnings.

3 Day very reliable.
5 Day moves about a lot.
11 AM Cone.
Updated at 5 PM.

AGAIN... that cone follows the EYE.
The cone below shows when TS winds arrive.
It can be a day ahead of the timing above.

Understand much like Hurricane Matthew last year.
The approach to the coast parallel to the coast.
Makes it almost impossible to forecast...
..exactly if a city will get the eye.
Prepare as if you expect the eye.

Link is interactive. Use it.

The cone above changes again at 5PM
It might not but they redraw it at 5PM

Note BOTH times shown above.

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11 AM Discussion.
Winds down some...good.
Otherwise no major change.
Just more of the same.
Warm water, some shear eventually.
Front passes, then short wave grabs it.
You can read it here:

Models pulling right but...
...not all of them.

Part of her circulation is over Hispaniola.
Specifically the Dominican Republic.
Moving steadily WNW.

Long loops.
Shows where it's been.
Strength, moisture it's hauling.

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Note when the eye goes over land it closes up some.
Pops back over water.
Closes again over Hispaniola.
Subtle ... I'll take any weakening at all.

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You can see this above on Dvorak.
Intensity held in check close to land.
SW side over land smaller.

You can also see the front that moved down..
...through Carolinas.

More obvious on the WV Loop.

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How to prepare your home:

Gas App:
Use it and then stop using your car.
Do NOT waste gas.
You may not be able to replace it.


8 AM same intensity and forward motion.
New coordinates


And this is the story of the day.

People evacuating.
Big wide view below.
As Irma makes her move..
.. many are moving out of her way.

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You can see Irma.
You can see the High behind her.
You can see the cold front.
UP above the cold front.
Idaho.. digging dark line.
That's the "short wave" I wrote about
Irma should lift...
...but where?

Earliest arrival of TS winds.
Tropical Storm Force Winds.
Why TS winds?
Because that's when things get sketchy.
The real trouble begins.
You'll have strong early bands before that.
But the real show begins then.

My kids deal with this Saturday morning.
I deal with this Monday morning.
That can speed up in future forecasts.
Irma keeps moving a bit faster.
Check that graphic often.
Note it speeds up close to Miami.
Not a wide margin of error.

Newest cities in wind probs.

Again I-95 traveling North inland.
Inland cities perhaps.
Raleigh... Charlotte.

Irma may be a coastal cruiser.
But she is forecast to go deep inland.
She won't be a Cat 4 or Cat 5.
But still brings down trees.
Power Outages for a long time.
Too huge a geographic area.
Takes longer to put it back.
There is the graphic below that shows this.

The trend has been to the right.
Last night Savanna was in the cross hairs.
This morning that moves up to SC.

That big blue view I love below.
It's from last night.
Irma moved a bit WNW.
But you see the story here.
Busy season as forecast.

Statistic... Longest Cat 3 on record.

This is the link below for the whole list of cities in the Wind Probs that it seems I obsess on, but I do so for a reason. The wind probabilities go out in advance of the  movement of the cone. Sometimes you go to sleep in the wind probs, wake up and you are not in them anymore. But it gives you an early heads up as to what is possible and what may be coming down the way. Sort of a chance to run to Publix, Kroger or Aldi and stock up on your "must haves" before the cone edges into your neighborhood and everyone runs to the store. It gives you a chance to think seriously on what you will or won't do. And, obviously I'm talking for people in Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina... up all the way into Virginia, Maryland and that includes our nation's capital Washington, DC. Del Marva is on the list at some point until we see which way Irma leans. Hmnn as I type this Jim just said "even Raleigh" so I started this paragraph before he started talking fast. Cantore talks faster than me, but not my much.

This morning's discussion is written very well. I advise you to read it for yourself. Basically it's an extrapolation of the last discussion with current model analysis added in. Irma is moving under a huge ridge being steered for now by the Bermuda High. The oldest hurricane story in the book in September. A short wave feature is supposed to move down and help grab the storm and pull it North. How fast it grabs it, where it grabs it and the angle of movement North is still up for grabs. Will it go NNW or N very hard to say for sure and each degree can mean the difference of the eye wall over West Palm Beach or it staying just off shore.

In Puerto Rico it stayed just to the North of the island, though they went through the storm as we watched in real time on radar. The small islands it passed over will take a long time to be able to be inhabited again. Honest as I can get here. But the bigger islands like PR and now Hispaniola it has managed to crawl along North of the coastline. Can it continue that sort of track and stay just off shore South Florida or does our luck run out regarding Major Hurricanes and landfall? Obviously places like West Palm Beach that stick out the furthest East have a higher risk of an eye making landfall directly. Some models do take this west through the Keys and pull it up into the SouthWest coast making that turn back across Florida. Some models have pulled further to the East and miss a direct landfall, however Miami, Hollywood and WPB could still get Major Hurricane force winds and their associated damage with Irma's eye offshore. Irma is that BIG size wise and there isn't much in the way to keep her in check once she slides away from Hispaniola. It is worth noting that the Dominican Republic has large mountains and currently, maybe just briefly, you can see the Southwest side of Irma looks a bit ragged. I know it's hard to call a Major Category 5 Hurricane containing winds of 180 miles per hour "ragged" but I think they were a bit generous with the wind speed this morning erring on the side of caution.  We will get recon information throughout the day and see what they do at a 11 AM. I'll update at the top for the 11 AM so you can compare and contrast with the 5 AM information in the same post. Trust me the difference of 5 MPH seems little and it didn't impress me much when they downgraded Andrew 5 MPH but it's a trend and better for it to be winding down than winding up.

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That said regarding wind speed; when it leaves the North Coast of Hispaniola and it's coastal waters it will move over warmer water than it has traversed so far and some of the warmest water in the Atlantic. So whatever damage some small interaction with the coastline might do it will be fed high intensity fuel once back over the Bahamas. This hurricane story has been going on since before we have records of hurricanes or ship logs of ships that made it to safety through the storm. This is what happens in that part of the world; we often live in denial in the quiet times for a decade of two that it won't happen again. And then... come September it happens again. Each hurricane is similar and each hurricane is different and unique. The water off the coast of Miami Beach is currently 88 degrees. Irma will love that sort of high octane fuel. Not good for South Florida, even if it stays off the coast.

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Leaving you with this image below. It's the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season so far. The map is being worked on in real time and you can see the whole track of Irma since it left Africa; you can see the other tracks as well.

 Interesting image above.
2017 Hurricane Season so far.
Some see Lee forming soon..

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A few good Tweets online.
Obviously he buys the pulling E scenario.
Understand there are many.
But this thoughts are clear and concise.
Easy to read and to see.

I don't see any reason to disagree with the above.
He's showing the center of IRMA
Not weather far from it's eye.
Below shows you even if it stays offshore..
How the wind field could look

I say "could" because it's hard to be sure.

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I do believe Irma gets picked up.
It should be more clear in 24 hours.
The feature is up over Wyoming and Idaho.
Digging down and SE.
Don't look at the cold front.
Look beyond the front.
See the river of air over Nebraska... 
Pushing SE.
That is the a player.

I don't want to go long on Katia and Jose.
Katia is running away to Mexico.
Jose is following behind.
It is very possible sadly... will add insult to injury to the Islands.

90 MPH Jose.
May clip the islands.

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Cone below:

Jose may loop.
Stall, loop back.
End game is unsure.
But islands are in cross hairs again.

Below is the bottom line.
Most likely...
South Florida gets a landfall from a Cat 4
IF it does go inland over Florida.
All of FL could get Hurricane Force winds.

I know you are used to me arguing with the NHC ;) (not always obviously) and giving my own thoughts. It's just so close a call that it's impossible to tell where the extremely dangerous eye of Cat 5 Irma goes as it approaches Florida. While it is possible it goes through the Keys and up the SW coast of Florida history and current atmospheric synoptic features favor it turning at South Florida or just off shore and moving parallel to the coastline very similar to last year's Matthew. However, Irma is much bigger than Matthew. I'd favor the bend just off shore speeding up as it approaches Florida and then down the road it will have some interaction and it could weaken a drop from shear as it moves further North towards another landfall somewhere around South Carolina. And, I'll add that could be the SC/NC border or closer to Georgia. Just way too soon to tell. But the story is getting closer to having it's ending written. 

What can you do? Plan, prepare.. never panic and hunker down in safe spot if you stayed. Keep your family close, in one spot together in an interior room away from windows in the safest spot in your house. Let your family know where you are staying and conserve your phone power. Keep it at full power, at some point the electricity goes out. I remember one hurricane I was on the phone talking to a close friend who does hurricanes and he was telling me the lower pressures were close to me and the power went out... old PC computer sort of went dead. When the power goes out your phones should work for emergency calls to your family to tell them what is going on but do not waste that battery power it goes quickly. And, the cell phone towers could go down as well. Sorry but true.

Lastly............. I could show you pictures of Barbuda that was heavily damaged in Irma. It's there as an island but it's pretty much destroyed. I don't really want to show the pictures as I hope and pray that doesn't happen to South Florida... to Bal Harbor that I know well or South Beach or Hollywood Boardwalk or Bayside or the new beautiful Brickell Centre in downtown Miami but it may. The pictures are passed around online. It looks like a nuclear bomb went off... some concrete structures are partially standing. Take this hurricane very seriously and do not expect a miracle but please feel free to pray for one. And, give charity while you can to places who were destroyed and people in need at the Red Cross. 

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter. Follow me for more immediate updates or discussion. I'd love to play a nice Jimmy Buffett song today, but you need this information way more. Stay safe, stay strong! I'll update again at 11 AM at the top and I may add some links here throughout the day for helpful sites.

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At 4:28 AM, Anonymous How to Stop The Hurricane said...

It can be controlled using the only aid closest to us.


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