UPDATED! Invest 95L Forms. 11 PM Adjustment to Cone. State of Emergency for Florida for Cat 4 Irma West Bound... Steering Currents, Models and Forecast Discussion
11 PM.
Subtle changes.
5 PM Labor Day
State of Emergency for ALL Florida.
All counties.
Look at that eye.
Subtle changes.
Hurricane Watch up for PR & VI.
Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands.
Other islands too.
Read info below from NHC.
Salient part of the discussion is below.
Irma should slow forward speed on 4th and 5th day.
Irma is expected to turn tomorrow to WNW.
Broad trough over US...
Lifts NE leaving a weakness in the ridge.
And future forecast winds of 150 MPH.
I think they are a bit conservative.
We could have a Cat 5 briefly.
Note below HURRICANE winds..
...touching S FL.
Not for sure...
...strong chances.
Read map key.
Wind Probs going up the coast.
After FL Irma moves into Georgia.
Just some shown below as a guide.
You get the idea.
All of Florida has wind probs.
And the Models
From my friend Mike
spaghettimodels.com
Note watches and warnings at the top.
Mike does a spectacular job.
You can friend him...
..he does Live Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/mikesweatherpage/
During his Facebook Live broadcast tonight (he does them randomly throughout the day) people were saying he was scaring them. He was being honest. He is always honest (when he's not joking around) but about Hurricanes he's honest and on top of it. Knows his stuff. Shares his stuff. Glad.
I want everyone to remember one thing from my update tonight. Irma is very far away. It's only nearing 56 West. Hurricane Recon was just able to fly into it recently. It's far from the islands, though getting closer. If not for Harvey and it's associated flooding (it didn't make landfall in Houston...) Miamians would be laid back and waiting to see what happened. From Miami to the Florida Georgia Line Publix is running low on water. The stores are jammed and everyone is terrified and who wouldn't be after days of coverage of the FLOODING in Texas. Miami could have flooding, but the bigger problem here is catastrophic damage where ever the Major Hurricane Force winds make landfall. This is not Harvey, it's another type of hurricane. And, size wise it is forecast to grow in size and meaning a good part of Florida could get Tropical Storm force winds no matter where it makes landfall in Florida. And, there is still a chance the track could shift offshore to the East so watch the trend. The trend is more important than the actual five day cone when you are at the end of the cone or just outside the cone. You know the old saying "the trend is your friend' especially if it's trending further away from you.
Lot's of Real Estate in the NRL Map.
It's going to be a crazy week so everyone needs to pace themselves and pray we end up complaining everyone prepared and it stayed off shore vs it took down a good part of the infrastructure of your city. It's a problem when a large area has all it's schools destroyed (an example) and well.. Irma is not Harvey.
I'll update in the AM. Thank you everyone for your thoughts and prayers and donations you have given to charity to the survivors of the flooding in Texas and your thoughts in real time on Twitter.
Invest 95L formed in the Gulf of Mexico from the area we have been watching off and on; I have written about this area several times over the last week. How this might affect the picture is a good question. Understand, as Mike said on Facebook Live, everything down there is really juicy and there is much moisture from 95L up to Florida and beyond.
Sweet Tropical Dreams, Bobbistorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Feel free to keep reading if you have not done so earlier today.
5 PM Labor Day
State of Emergency for ALL Florida.
All counties.
Look at that eye.
Irma's cone.
The front to her North.
Category 4...
Earlier today
Later today as it transitioned to a Cat 4
I want to be clear here.
There is a State of Emergency for ALL counties in FL so they can properly prepare, get funds going, open up shelters and set up to help people later. Miami being in the Cone on the 5th day is not a assurance you will get a dead on hit by a Cat 4 but it means there is a strong possibility the Category 4 hurricane can be in that area. It can be to the right out at sea cruising up the GulfStream, it can be to the left closer to the Florida Keys or it can cruising up the Interstate. You need to prepare now because you may get Irma, IF you get Irma you will be glad you prepared. It's part and parcel of living in paradise.
Wind probabilities show most of Florida under the gun today from Hurricane Irma. A cone is up and Miami is in the cone at the end of the 5th Day. If you look carefully at the eye in the loop above you can discern that the eye is moving West now; due west, though it could wobble a bit here and there. The WSW movement seems to have ended and that's a big change if so. It is undergoing regular eye wall replacement cycles, the end result of those should be Irma grows in size. In strength Irma is a Category 4 Hurricane now as forecast previously. Every variation in degrees means the Islands get a dead on hit or are spared the worst of the wrath of Irma.
They have been sampling the atmosphere around and out ahead of Irma as well as over the US to see the actual strength of the trof that could influence it later in the forecast period. That data is NOT in this cone, but will hopefully be in the next model runs and the 11 PM cone and discussion. It's great that we can do that and it gives us a better, more detailed handle on the complexities (and there are many) of the actual steering currents that tell us more where Irma will be in 4 days vs today which we can see on satellite imagery. The NHC is reminding people there can be a wide variance in the reliability of the 4th and 5th day part of the cone and I'll add that changes in real time depending on if Irma takes the middle of the cone or the North or South part of the Cone. Often the cone is moved based on the movement of Irma ... we use models but we also study the storm itself from many angles.
The main points they want you to take away, and I agree obviously, is first it deals with the Islands (both big and small ones possibly) then the Bahamas and then it takes aim it seems on South Florida. Whether South Florida gets a direct landfall or it stays just off shore and rides up the coast much like Matthew did last year --- it will impact South Florida and very possibly much of Florida. This makes it a difficult storm to "run away from" as many learned during Hurricane David. Many Miamians got in their car in 1979 and drove up to Orlando taking hotel rooms along the way and then Hurricane David veered NNW and rather than hit Miami head on people were forced to deal with David in small, poorly built motels off of I-95. Old timers will not do that again with a storm like Irma, though many will go to shelters if they need to leave their home if it is in an evacuation zone. Shutters are an absolute MUST with Irma and any Major Hurricane, so if you do not have shutters go to a friend nearby who does have good shutters.
Most everyone I know in Miami has already been to multiple stores today looking for what they need for supplies. Harvey was a wake up call and people will prepare accordingly.
Let's look at the models but remember that the models shift and wobble based on the actual movement of Irma (not the advisory) and they often read different important factors affecting Irma. Unfortunately or maybe fortunately they view them differently. It's up to the forecasters at the NHC to make the final call and extract the best cone they can put out with the best information for people in it's track.
Basic models still mostly show a turn.
A turn can mean 2 landfalls.
Maybe FL than SC.
Possible.
Too soon to be sure.
But the tracks are moving towards landfall.
Below is the GFS and the EURO
They ALL show a hard right turn.
Where and when is the mystery.
We will know in about 2 days..
GFS looks bad for FL and GA and SC.
Then NC deals with Irma.
The EURO pretty much does the same.
It's a matter of degrees where they differ.
Let's look at Irma.
Note the bulk of the storm is to the West of the EYE.
The storm bulges a bit WNW.
It may begin to gain a drop in latitude.
So what would that mean? If it goes up and over the islands than it has less island interaction and the strength of Irma could stay Major Hurricane all the way unto landfall. Even if it stays just off shore as many hurricanes before it have done, think Matthew, it will do massive damage especially if it grows in size as the forecast has shown. This is not a "small storm" size wise like Andrew was so the strong hurricane force winds will go out in all directions further as will unrelenting Tropical Storm force winds with hurricane gusts in them. Let's hope it moves quickly and does not stall or slow down. Time for those steering currents to grab Irma unlike what happened with Harvey where the steering currents collapsed. Below you will see a Gov product that shows Irma hovering over Cape Kennedy like a rocket looking to take off for cities to it's North. As I always remind you a hurricane is a Low pressure system and they seek out like minded Low pressure systems trying to stay away from High Pressure.
Melbourne Florida further up the coast...
...always does great discussion.
The very speed of Irma may tell the story.
If Irma slows she could miss the front.
She is forecast to make that turn.
All models show her making a turn.
A hard right turn.
Read my previous blog to see examples...
..of other hurricanes that did the turn.
You can see Irma.
You can see the High to the NE of her.
She is nearing the edge of the High.
An ULL to her NW
(looks like a small mirror image of Irma)
A trof coming down from Canada..
..digging.
I'll update tonight with more thoughts.
As well as discussion on the models.
I'm not a model hugger.
My site is Hurricane Harbor.
Mike's site is Spaghetti Models.
I watch the models.
But I've been burned by models too often.
When a hurricane is 3 days away...
I trust the models.
Check back later.
And thanks for talking with me on Twitter.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter.
Ps... PLEASE take Irma seriously.
Plan, Prepare and Pray.
All capitalized on purpose.
We only have to look back one year.
Look at that hard right turn.
Hurricanes do that.
I'm still worried on SC and NC.
From Sea Islands GA to OBX...
...people need to watch Irma carefully.
Florida first.....
Irma is looking for a beach...somewhere.
Labels: bobbistorm, Cat4, discussion, Florida, forecast, hurricane, Irma, matthew, models, spaghettimodels, weather
posted by BobbiStorm @ 2:30 PM
3 Comments:
Irma is hovering over "Cape Kennedy" - as a native Central Floridian it took me years to stop calling it that! :-)
Yeah I went with it... Old Florida family. I still want to write Isle of Pines vs Youth...
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