UPDATED SUNDAY 11 AM .. Hurricane Irma. Islands First. Then Bahamas. Then FL or Carolinas or ??? Hurricane History For CV Hurricanes That Dipped WSW... 1938 Hurricane and Current Models. HUGO... Memories of Matthew but HUGER..

Valid at 11 AM

I will have a new post after 5 PM

Again compare this with ....

earlier cords below.

Impt points in discussion.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/030849.shtml

Final cords at 11 AM Sunday.

Wind Probs now show South Florida.

Also far out in Bahamas...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT1+shtml/031451.shtml?

Again they change every 6 hours.

Note I will update here until we get Recon Info.
And next model runs with a new post.
Check back often.
Compare and contrast.
Prepare and watch the forecast.

Sunday 5 AM
Compare contrast w above.

Please read examples of long tracking hurricanes that dipped WSW as examples to learn from where Irma may go at the end of this blog. I will update with a NEW blog including info from Recon and next model runs later today. Much to read here and more so remember that it's a long ways away and over Labor Day Weekend you can think on what you need and stock up on some basics you would use anyway such as batteries, tuna (hand can opener), peanut butter, canned goods, favorite snacks, OTC medication as well as updating Rx medications this week. Think on where you would go IF you needed to evacuate. This advice is valid from South Florida (less likely to get a direct hit but still in it) to up the coast from Brunswick Islands in Georgia to Outer Banks. It can and may go further North and far inland but for now worrying on the Islands and then FL and the Bahamas. Then I worry on Carolinas. I have priorities. And stay updated with your favorite weather sources as well as always the NHC.  Note Irma is still losing latitude as seen in the 5 AM below.  It may sound old school but watching advisory details is the best way to totally, organically understand what is going on vs reading through thousands of tweets and every person on Facebook who thinks they know but didn't look at the latest satellite image or last model run. NHC... Spaghetti Models...and check back here often.

Note moved .5 South from last night.

and far west.

Major Hurricane Again.

Category 3

Despite dealing with dry air.

Feeling the warmer water.

You noticing a trend here?

It's not a good trend.

Compare and contrast with Saturday Night

West at 15 MPH

110 MPH

973 MB

18.5N 44.6W

Looking impressive.

I want you to look carefully at that lead band.
Very often hurricanes show you...
...where they will go in the long term.
Expansion of SW side problematic.
Especially for the Islands.

And the new map correlates from NRL

So if we are worried on Carolinas..

Why is Cuba in it?

Well OTS Atlantic also in it.

Dips affect track.

Sometimes a dip is eliminated by an immediate pull to the NNW through the Islands and so you can't tell the whole story by a dip. But think of it as a plot device that sets the characters up later for more drama. It puts more places in play...or in the map. Last night's model run of the EURO showed a closer call for the Islands and wasn't very good for people living in the Carolina or the Mid Atlantic. It scares the hell out of people in Florida and then like many hurricanes before it (Matthew/Floyd) it scrapes along the Florida Coast and then slams into the SC/NC coast. That is not a track in stone but we are getting closer to wet cement.  Every day we get closer to better figuring out the final destination of Irma; remembering she can surprise us. Hugo was expected to make landfall further up the coast. Hazel moved faster than expected. Matthew was supposed to turn away from the coast and not affect North Carolina but it's never ending moisture feed flooded Eastern NC to wash away memories of Floyd and be replaced by the name Matthew when someone says "NC Flooding" so... expect surprises. Andrew was supposed to "catch the trof" and be a Carolina problem, until the trof fizzled and the High built in...

Later today Recon will go into the storm. After that they will send the Gulfstream Jet to sample the environment out and ahead of where Irma may go. AFTER THAT... the models will have that info in them when they run their future runs and we will know way more about the actual future of Irma whereas currently we have speculation and innuendo. Everyone in Miami is sure they are going to get Irma, people in Charleston and Wilmington are concerned and worried and even people in New England have a bad feeling in their gut. Oh that includes the Del Marva, DC, NJ, NY... Long Island and well...what were they thinking naming a hurricane Irma? 

So hang onto your supper, don't obsess but seriously think what you would do should you end up in the 3 day cone to Irma. And, if you live out on a barrier island if you are in the 4 day part of the Cone figure out what you will do. Between here and there is guesses on her final intensity, forward speed and strong steering currents or iffy ones.

Hugo, JUST AN EXAMPLE, leaned towards South Carolina far out int he Atlantic. Hurricanes often lean into where they are going. Sometimes that's just convection being sheared off; other times it's an indication of where the storm is going. Note orientation of Hugo below (just an example) and watch the loop and see the similarities. Irma is IRMA not Hugo or Fran or Hazel or Dora or Sandy but there are commonalities that make it worth discussing.

Shows leaning in but...

Shows what steered Hugo far inland.

Next.

Why an image does not show the whole story.

A small warning to be careful online while surfing and trying to see where Irma is going. People are posting ONE image of a model run, a long model run, showing where they believe it will go. There is only ONE source and that source to believe is the http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. If you have a met you trust and have learned to trust over time please listen to them, read them, watch them but the NHC has the whole story not one image. Hypers looking to get many retweets and to share their scare are showing images that look as if it is hitting Haiti, Cuba, Florida, Charleston ... some have it going into the GOM based on only a few models that take it there. The whole loop is needed to view, not one image. An image may tell much but a loop shows the whole forecast scenario. AND AGAIN... that same model can change on the next model run and often does when you are this far out.

Looks terrifying for Miami....

Oh but then next image of loop.

Oh.... Goes UP the Coast..

Off shore for now.

SC/NC line.

Ouch far inland.

Over Virginia...

Why I am not happy.

Waiting for a trof to form and the jet stream to make it's move with the trof is like hoping a QB does a QB sneak and runs the ball in for a touchdown when he is not a scrambling QB. It's an iffy scenario currently with that dip the trof may or may not do. The High is more consistent though even that changes as Highs tend to breathe in and out, contract, expand and a Major Hurricane gets a vote sometimes as well. High builds aloft and that becomes a factor at times. With all that moisture hanging out off the East Coast it puts many places in play and any small variation in movement can mean staying off the Florida coast or scraping up the Florida coast much like Matthew did last year. So watch, wonder (vs worry), plan vs obsess and watch to see if it makes some landfall in the Islands. That will say much about what it will do later and the information from the recon and Gulfstream Jet says so much more than speculation a week away with ever changing models.

A look back at Hugo.

You can see the similarities.

IRMA TODAY.

Note how the bright reds race out ahead of her.

Talking West.. WSW of Irma.

Not good for the Islands.

Note the ever present convection ...

..From Yucatan to NC.

Does that go away..

..or not.

Make a big difference down the road.

In 3 days time we will be more sure of Irma.

Have a great day today.

Please keep reading.

I kept this post rich in Hurricane History here below.

Again..

Wide view.
From LATE last night.
Still VALID.
Historical Info Below.
As always go to Spaghetti Models
For the latest models.

http://spaghettimodels.com/

The question remains.

Where will Irma be in 5 days?

North part of cone?

South part of cone?

Center of cone?

Makes a big difference.

For now we watch.

Prepare as much as you can.

Read my blog ;)

As always NHC is bottom line.

nhc.noaa.gov

As the Magic 8 Ball says..

Ask again later.

These are the issues.

Things to watch.

1. Obviously Irma.

2. The Ridge to it's North.

3. A trof develops over US.

Models show a large trof forming later in the week that will impact Irma's final track, just as much as the huge High pressure ridge. If the trof forms and dips very far South it would have a pull on Irma. Should the trof retrograde backwards or split the forecast could get very messy and difficult. Should the trof push down and lean to the right it would obviously have a huge impact for all of us ... we are looking for the best case scenario here not the worst.  Irma is just entering this view above, the trof really has not formed but models forecast a strong trof. Such trofs in the past in this set up have had big influences on hurricanes taking this track anywhere from Hugo to 1938 Long Island Hurricane. Every variation of the alignment, strength and speed of the trof will resonate in a change in the possible track of Irma. And, of course the High itself.. when it pushes down on Irma then Irma moves faster in concert with the High. When the High slows, Irma slows. Where the High goes can make a difference between landfall and skimming the Outer Banks and curving out to sea. Or missing the Outer Banks and somehow becoming a Fish Storm. Got to tell you ... I don't think Fish is on the menu this week so that said, where and who gets to deal directly with Irma is the big question. For now the focus is on the Islands, specifically the Virgin Islands as they are the most NE islands closest to the cone. Cones change remember that. They don't melt, they just change so no cone is carved in stone but more penciled in until the next advisory.

The best two models are below.

Then there's the overall models.

For now Florida is in better shape to escape a hit.

But...that could change.

So much could change.

So many factors in play today and down the tropical road. Currently Irma is dealing with some dry air that is trying to wrap around her and she is still in marginally warm water. She is currently a small hurricane; she is forecast to grow in size to be a large hurricane. She has gone through 2 eye wall replacement cycles and her intensity is a very strong Cat 2. As she moves West and in this case just South of West or WSW she gets into even juicer water and the dry air should be less of an issue. Never say "should" yet the NHC uses that word often as nothing is certain so I'm going with it.

You can see this on the last image.

I'm going to leave you tonight with a link to a site that has all the different years and the tracks of the storms in those years. It's a link you need to use if you don't already use it. I love Wikipedia but really this is the mother lode of track and track info. The devil is always in the details and often it's name is either High Pressure or Trof and sometimes the Trof is a blessing and other times a curse.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/index.php It looks like this below. Pick out the year and then look for the individual storms as well as the whole season. It also gives coordinates and well it's a great resource. 

Then make books.

I have books.

Lots of them.

But maps books are great to flip through.

Leaving you with several images below.

Most of these long trackers dipped WSW.

Not all but most

They are no specific order.

In 1947 there was a long tracking storm unofficially known as "George" as it was before we officially named storms. It had a similar track. The hurricane prior to that storm hit the Texas area so that makes me watch that track carefully. It was the hurricane that Ft Lauderdale remembers as their "Big One". Amazingly later in the year another storm came out of the SW and hit the Miami area with record rainfall, massive huge amounts of rainfall and historic flooding. I'll talk about this more tomorrow. It gets special mention for coming after a hit on Texas and being a long, westbound tracker.  Hillsboro Inlet had winds of 155 mph at landfall, it went on to hit Louisiana... the second storm was seeded by Project Cirrus (before Project Storm Fury) and after going out to sea curved back and hit near Savannah. More on that tomorrow.

In 1949 the WPB area was hit with a very severe long tracking hurricane.

In 1952 a preseason storm formed and made landfall in February (much like our early start this year) and later a long tracking dipping hurricane made landfall in Beaufort, SC. Far inland there was huge flooding in Maryland, especially around Ellicot City. 

In 1960 the very famous Hurricane Donna formed in the CV Islands ... long tracker, no dip but relevant.

1964 Hurricane Dora formed near Africa, did a dip... went on to hit just south of Jax around St. Augustine. Hmnnn

1979, an analog year for this year, had Hurricane David a very long tracker with a small dip WSW and it followed a track similar to many the models show currently. 

In 1989 Hugo did the dip as well and tracked a long ways until it sniffed out a trof and the High went weak and end game was well we know ... a long tracking hurricane that after destroying the coastal area went far inland to Charlotte and beyond.

In 1996 Fran.... 

I didn't choose these storms to high light any specific area... no reason other than... they were long trackers and many of the did a WSW dip or went briefly just South of West. 

LASTLY......... there has been much talk about the 1938 Hurricane that went into Long Island and New England. Rarely do you have a long range forecast that mirrors in some way that set up and the ones we are seeing currently with the trof, high pressure, etc are making meteorologists ponder this possible scenario. Again some long range models show that after it tangos with the Carolinas it goes up towards DC, Del Marva, NY, NE and others recurve it out to sea... hopefully. Hope is good but preparation is better. The images below are from one of my many books. You can Google them or check out that link. First things first... Jim Williams at hurricanecity.com tonight is watching the Islands.  Specifically St. Martin shown below and the reality is that is where our focus is today not a week or more from now. Jim also has a great deal of Hurricane History for various places and storms so please use his site accordingly.

Enjoy my map images.

Google those storms.

Stay tuned.

Prepare. 

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps Video at bottom. Not a prediction.

Just some hurricane history.