Major Hurricane Irma and the Models. Hurricane History Lesson on the 1960s.

Tropics Friday Morning Above.

Harvey on the move...

Cat 3 Irma moving West.

Possibly Jose behind her.

Close up look at Irma.

Note presence of dry air to it's North

Beautiful storm.

Looks more like a Cat 2 above.

Cat 2 Canes are most beautiful.

I'm talking structure wise...

Putting Irma in perspective.

Now we see the wider picture.

Again look at the dry air to it's North.

(little white dots to newbies)

Still a long way to go.

And Irma could go a variety of places.

Keep it in perspective.

Models below.

Nice product Mike added to his site.

GFS and EURO together at last.

http://spaghettimodels.com/

From :

http://weathernerds.org/

Basically everyone from the Yucatan to the Carolinas in the longer term need to keep an eye on Irma. Beyond that time period in extra long range the East Coast of the US. In the short term the islands really need to pay close attention. Because of the forecast dip to the WSW or even just South of West in reality Irma ends up lower than she would otherwise. Because the High pressure is forecast to dig in, push down on Irma her response is to adjust her forward motion and move a bit more to the south of due west.  This is not so rare in long tracking CV hurricanes. They have a slight motion south of due west, when the high expands. Hurricane Dora in 1964 is an excellent example of how a hurricane responds to the movements of High Pressure. Early on Dora took a slight dip WSW as High Pressure pressed down on her. She kept cruising along and then the High took an unfortunate trip further West and pushed Dora into the Jacksonville area for a rare hit on Jax. Eventually it went out to sea with an obvious front. Dora went down in history for many things; one being a long tracking storm since it's departure from Africa to the North Florida area. 

Note that's a similar bend left as Andrew.

This is an an example of why we watch the High.

As much as we pray for cold fronts.

We watch every fluctuation of the High.

The placement of the High this week...

...will be mirrored by Irma's movements.

This leads us back to the models and Hurricane Irma. The models change and update every six or twelve hours depending on the model. Some models update faster and some make us wake and bite our fingernails waiting to see if there will be some change when they finally strut their stuff late at night when only the more dedicated wait up to see what they will show us on the last model run. And what they show us can change on the next model run. To quote Shakespeare...do not swear by the models, they change constantly especially far out when a storm is closer to Africa than Puerto Rico. And, I use PR as an example as it may be dealing with Irma in some way down the line. There is no hard and set line on Irma's final track; at some point there may be a line on it in Vegas where people will bet on anything. I'm not a gambler, other than once in a blue moon buying a lotto ticket, but if I was I would not bet the farm on Irma making it to the East Coast as percentage wise most hurricanes that form where Irma has formed go out to sea. But it's the ones that do not that live in infamy and in our collective memories.

Some decades are known for extreme hurricane action and Hurricane Dora lived in the Swinging 1960s when hurricanes happened often in America as they found a way to make it across the pond and into landfall history.  The map below is the year of 1964 and you can discern many things from that map. One is that many originated near Africa and most of those went out to sea. Dora did not go out to sea until after taking a rare track across an area that usually feels safer than most along the Florida coast. Cleo made a similar lower track across the Atlantic first tasting blood in the Caribbean leaving a high death toll. It also is a storm to watch historically with regard to the long range projections for Irma. The track is shown below as well. Again you will see the movement of the High is shown by the actual track of Cleo as if she simply traced the high as she moved about.

Cleo.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Cleo

This is why many storm chasers, trackers and forecasters talk on the 1960s. It was a decade to remember from Donna in 1960 to Camille in 1969. It's been quiet times in the tropics of late as El Nino was on the scene and reigned as King for a several years. We tend to forget in quiet years that hurricanes along the East Coast happen. We look back at Sandy as if it was a long time ago and a benchmark of sorts. Many think those days of multiple landfalls are gone and most hurricanes will simply form and go quietly out to sea. Wrong; it's just the way our minds work and we remember the recent past more than we remember the whole spread of hurricane history. 

The crazy 1940s where some sort of hurricane was expected to form and drench South Florida every year. My father went to the UM and lived on Miami Beach often and every year he had to evacuate for a summer hurricane. One year the University insisted students living on Miami Beach not stay and offered them rooms near the airport by some sort of zoo their students used. The storm caused massive flooding inland and after that he stayed in his rented room on Miami Beach happier than deal with inland flooding. We will talk about that famous 1940s hurricane in another blog soon as some have pointed to it as an analog storm for Irma.

Back to Irma.

She's dancing out there today.

That loop deserves the right sound track.

This is the issue.

Not the models.

But the forecast strength.

Note discussion below:

The 5 Day Forecast.

140 MPH.

WOW.

If that doesn't wake you up you're not alive.

It's stronger than caffeine.

Often the NHC changes like the models.

So don't bet on it but...

... wow. 

Bottom Line.... stay tuned. Watch the progress over the next few days before you lose any sleep on Irma and stay on top of your hurricane plans should your city move into this five day window. For now she is far away. Never forget history, we learn from history and sometimes it repeats or comes close to repeating. Double landfalls such as Betsy and Andrew across South Florida into Louisiana are rare but happen as a strong High breathes and expands outside it's normal boundaries and pushes a hurricane further west than most that go out to sea. With regard to Donna, it moved into the GOM and then back across Florida with a cold front. 

I'll be back later with another update later today. Thanks for reading and for sharing your thoughts on Twitter and being patient while I was dealing with ridiculously slow "free wifi" at JetBlue's terminal at JFK.  But it was a wonderful trip on many levels and a good chance to breathe a bit myself as I was up late and worried on Harvey as it moved towards the Texas coastline as I knew... we knew... this was not one that was simply going to go along and follow the more common track out of the BOC into Mexico.  Nope... and Irma may not go out to sea, even if most hurricanes where she is currently do go out to sea. 2017 seems to be one of those seasons.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... I'll be back later today with another update.