Major Hurricane Irma and the Models. Hurricane History Lesson on the 1960s.

Tropics Friday Morning Above.

Harvey on the move...

Cat 3 Irma moving West.

Possibly Jose behind her.

Close up look at Irma.

Note presence of dry air to it's North

Beautiful storm.

Looks more like a Cat 2 above.

Cat 2 Canes are most beautiful.

I'm talking structure wise...

Putting Irma in perspective.

Now we see the wider picture.

Again look at the dry air to it's North.

(little white dots to newbies)

Still a long way to go.

And Irma could go a variety of places.

Keep it in perspective.

Models below.

Nice product Mike added to his site.

GFS and EURO together at last.

http://spaghettimodels.com/

From :

http://weathernerds.org/

Basically everyone from the Yucatan to the Carolinas in the longer term need to keep an eye on Irma. Beyond that time period in extra long range the East Coast of the US. In the short term the islands really need to pay close attention. Because of the forecast dip to the WSW or even just South of West in reality Irma ends up lower than she would otherwise. Because the High pressure is forecast to dig in, push down on Irma her response is to adjust her forward motion and move a bit more to the south of due west.  This is not so rare in long tracking CV hurricanes. They have a slight motion south of due west, when the high expands. Hurricane Dora in 1964 is an excellent example of how a hurricane responds to the movements of High Pressure. Early on Dora took a slight dip WSW as High Pressure pressed down on her. She kept cruising along and then the High took an unfortunate trip further West and pushed Dora into the Jacksonville area for a rare hit on Jax. Eventually it went out to sea with an obvious front. Dora went down in history for many things; one being a long tracking storm since it's departure from Africa to the North Florida area. 

Note that's a similar bend left as Andrew.

This is an an example of why we watch the High.

As much as we pray for cold fronts.

We watch every fluctuation of the High.

The placement of the High this week...

...will be mirrored by Irma's movements.

This leads us back to the models and Hurricane Irma. The models change and update every six or twelve hours depending on the model. Some models update faster and some make us wake and bite our fingernails waiting to see if there will be some change when they finally strut their stuff late at night when only the more dedicated wait up to see what they will show us on the last model run. And what they show us can change on the next model run. To quote Shakespeare...do not swear by the models, they change constantly especially far out when a storm is closer to Africa than Puerto Rico. And, I use PR as an example as it may be dealing with Irma in some way down the line. There is no hard and set line on Irma's final track; at some point there may be a line on it in Vegas where people will bet on anything. I'm not a gambler, other than once in a blue moon buying a lotto ticket, but if I was I would not bet the farm on Irma making it to the East Coast as percentage wise most hurricanes that form where Irma has formed go out to sea. But it's the ones that do not that live in infamy and in our collective memories.

Some decades are known for extreme hurricane action and Hurricane Dora lived in the Swinging 1960s when hurricanes happened often in America as they found a way to make it across the pond and into landfall history.  The map below is the year of 1964 and you can discern many things from that map. One is that many originated near Africa and most of those went out to sea. Dora did not go out to sea until after taking a rare track across an area that usually feels safer than most along the Florida coast. Cleo made a similar lower track across the Atlantic first tasting blood in the Caribbean leaving a high death toll. It also is a storm to watch historically with regard to the long range projections for Irma. The track is shown below as well. Again you will see the movement of the High is shown by the actual track of Cleo as if she simply traced the high as she moved about.

Cleo.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Cleo

This is why many storm chasers, trackers and forecasters talk on the 1960s. It was a decade to remember from Donna in 1960 to Camille in 1969. It's been quiet times in the tropics of late as El Nino was on the scene and reigned as King for a several years. We tend to forget in quiet years that hurricanes along the East Coast happen. We look back at Sandy as if it was a long time ago and a benchmark of sorts. Many think those days of multiple landfalls are gone and most hurricanes will simply form and go quietly out to sea. Wrong; it's just the way our minds work and we remember the recent past more than we remember the whole spread of hurricane history. 

The crazy 1940s where some sort of hurricane was expected to form and drench South Florida every year. My father went to the UM and lived on Miami Beach often and every year he had to evacuate for a summer hurricane. One year the University insisted students living on Miami Beach not stay and offered them rooms near the airport by some sort of zoo their students used. The storm caused massive flooding inland and after that he stayed in his rented room on Miami Beach happier than deal with inland flooding. We will talk about that famous 1940s hurricane in another blog soon as some have pointed to it as an analog storm for Irma.

Back to Irma.

She's dancing out there today.

That loop deserves the right sound track.

This is the issue.

Not the models.

But the forecast strength.

Note discussion below:

The 5 Day Forecast.

140 MPH.

WOW.

If that doesn't wake you up you're not alive.

It's stronger than caffeine.

Often the NHC changes like the models.

So don't bet on it but...

... wow. 

Bottom Line.... stay tuned. Watch the progress over the next few days before you lose any sleep on Irma and stay on top of your hurricane plans should your city move into this five day window. For now she is far away. Never forget history, we learn from history and sometimes it repeats or comes close to repeating. Double landfalls such as Betsy and Andrew across South Florida into Louisiana are rare but happen as a strong High breathes and expands outside it's normal boundaries and pushes a hurricane further west than most that go out to sea. With regard to Donna, it moved into the GOM and then back across Florida with a cold front. 

I'll be back later with another update later today. Thanks for reading and for sharing your thoughts on Twitter and being patient while I was dealing with ridiculously slow "free wifi" at JetBlue's terminal at JFK.  But it was a wonderful trip on many levels and a good chance to breathe a bit myself as I was up late and worried on Harvey as it moved towards the Texas coastline as I knew... we knew... this was not one that was simply going to go along and follow the more common track out of the BOC into Mexico.  Nope... and Irma may not go out to sea, even if most hurricanes where she is currently do go out to sea. 2017 seems to be one of those seasons.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... I'll be back later today with another update.

Sneaky African Wave With Yellow Circle as Another Nears South America. A Look Back at Hurricane Audrey and the Rule Breaking Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2017

Yes we are starting off with Africa this morning.

Going to try and keep today's post short and sweet, on the money as they say. There is a yellow circle in the far distant Atlantic off the coast of Africa again in June. This cannot be ignored and not for the reason you would normally think but solely for the reason that it is merely there. There shouldn't be yellow circles off of Africa in normal years in June, but there hasn't been anything normal about 2017 since Arlene formed in the Atlantic in April. And note I said "the Atlantic" vs some swirl in the Gulf of Mexico or off the coast of Florida but out in the Atlantic. Something to think on and discuss in depth after the season is over, however the pattern for an early Atlantic Hurricane Season was set back in April.

So let's look at Africa.

Several waves can be seen.

None dynamic but it's June.

June 2017

And the African Waves have been sneaky this year.

They are low this time of year.

That's within the framework of Climo.

Hurricane History since time began.

Early season waves tend to come off Africa at a lower latitude and that low ride hurts them as they have to lift a bit for them to really spin up as too close to the Equator you run into the dead zone for tropical formation. Bret was a rare spinner that low down close to the no go zone, however will more follow Bret this year that is the question. It's a two step dance, one part is staying away from the high dry air that sucks the energy out of fledgling tropical systems. On the other hand they can't go too far South or they lose their mojo. There's a thin line for development and it helps to have a wave with a lot of potential and not sure this wave has all that much potential. 

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitE/movies/splitE5.html  SAL loop.

A while back a beautiful wave came off of Africa, but it was ignored. No yellow circle and yet it's on it's way to Trinidad and Tobago. You can see this wave flaring up on satellite imagery below. Nice little compact, red circle in a pocket of moisture. Riding low as another wave comes off of Africa. And note there are numerous waves coming off of Africa as the ITCZ has stayed moist this year South of the region where SAL dominates in June and July. You can also see a front draped across the Northern part of the Sunshine State. Many have said this morning in NY feels like September not June. Get over it, it's an illusion and summer heat will return soon. But it's interesting to watch as the season unfolds as this season's tropical waves don't always follow the rules.

You can see this low riding wave below.

Looks like a bright, white mole moving West on the loop above.

You can also see a small cyclone named Dora in the Epac.

Small, quick lived fast moving Dora.

Hurricane Dora formed an eye.

And the eye opened up wide.

Dora moved West towards cooler water.

No shear but maybe the eye was too big?

Seriously it's now been downgraded.

Maybe it's the name.

Dora 2011 had a huge eye too.

However 2011 Dora was a strong, big Hurricane.

Both had huge eyes.

25 to 30 miles wide in 2017

While June is usually a good deal for cruises in the Caribbean it's usually unfriendly for tropical systems as the pieces of the puzzle fall into place a bit later in the season. You can see how unfriendly it is and yet we have a yellow circle with 20% chances in the 5 day and that's interesting. Interesting for how it may relate to later in July and August before we even get to Remember September. 

Look at all those waves swimming West.

Moisture in the Caribbean in June.

Fronts dangling across Florida.

Warm waters in the GOM and the Bahamas.

Epac squeezed out a small storm nothing more.

The signs point for this to be an above average year.

Where the hurricanes go is the question.

Northern Hemisphere.

Small pretty cyclonic signature in EPAC

And lots of moisture to work with for waves.

And no El Nino.

Waves lined up in the Atlantic.

Purple circles in the Atlantic.

Yellow 20% CV Waves.

Stay tuned....

....connect the dots!

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Follow me on Twitter for faster updates in real time.

Ps... Anniversary of Hurricane Audrey.

This old image was once new and amazing.

Audrey a rare June Hurricane.

A good look back is below.

.

http://www.alabamawx.com/?p=31159

State of the Tropics in the Atlantic Basin Monday Morning While Hurricane Dora Dances In the Eastern Pacific.

Hurricane Dora is in the Epac moving WNW out to sea. Pretty hurricane and not expected to a problem for anyone and of course no one is really paying attention. Like in Real Estate it's all about location and Dora is in the wrong location for Atlantic Basin people. If we had a hurricane in the Atlantic moving WNW at 13 mph the islands might be in it's way. Just the way of the world in that we tend to ignore the hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific while counting 5, 6, 7 days until our side of the world becomes active again.

Pretty quiet on our side of the world.

There is some cloud clutter in the areas known to show June development in most years. Storms flare up and die out in the BOC and down in the cradle of the SW Caribbean near Panama storms pulsate and go flat just as fast. It's part of the ongoing process. SAL is strong in the Eastern Atlantic as if someone remembered suddenly to turn the switch on. There are waves but they are not overly exciting waves unable to do battle with cousin Sal. We ( a group of weather friends online) like to call him "cousin" because well you know how those difficult cousins are in any large family. Everyone's got one or two or three and you can't live with them and you can't live without em. With any luck they are loyal good friends as well as partners in crime but they have a tendency to take all the air out of the room at a family gathering by reminding everyone about the one thing no one wanted to be reminded of...

This blog should be subtitled...

"Don't stop believing..."

Note far to the right, down low is a wave that looks interesting. That's why we call this "wave watching" in that it starts with a wave. You thought I was gonna say "kiss" didn't you? And that wave has to catch the eye of the right people at the exact same time as the models suddenly close off Lows and show moisture congregating in all the right places with pressures dropping and well you know the rest of the story. Otherwise we spend most of our time studying old hurricanes to learn from the past to deal with the next big hurricane. Patterns, it's all about patterns. Whether we are talking about the news or the weather it's all about patterns. A friend put this image up this morning and in ways he's right especially as he knows waves of all kinds.

He's a smart guy that's a little crazy. He probably doesn't mind being called crazy as much as a "little" crazy as he does things in big ways. But, he's right patterns are known to produce tropical cyclones. When we are really bored suddenly in the tropics after so much food at the "All You Can Eat Tropical Buffet" we start to watch the Canadian model yelling at it a bit "hit me with your best shot, fire away!!!"

Luckily for us crazy types the Canadian never disappoints. 

That's about a week out so don't hold your breath!

The EURO took a vacation to a beach in Majorca.

Watch out for sharks ....by the way.

The GFS long range model shown above in an image taken from www.tropicaltidbits.com shows a nice, large African wave setting sail on a journey across the ocean. That is very long range as in after you ate too much watermelon and drank too much beer over July 4th weekend! It's after a week of intermittent, weak waves trying to form with high pressure areas popping up for no apparent reason and then suddenly the MOTHER LODE... a big, huge, healthy wave riding low trying to avoid SAL. Yes, there has been whispers and chatter on this wave and the beginning of the CV season starting off in early July. Whether you insist on calling it a Cape Verde wave or you try and be politically correct and call it a Cabo Verde wave an African wave that's viable by any name is akin to a perfect rose for people who spend hours tending their garden trying to coax that one long stem beauty into perfection. A long range model is akin to a run on sentence that needs to be edited down or left alone under the guise of "my writing style" and if you are still reading this you must like my writing as...there is nothing happening currently in the Atlantic Tropical Basin.

I could wax poetic on the area of convection near the BOC but I'm really more of an African 

Wave girl who likes to ride a really long wave. I don't want to hear one great song and then leave the party I want to dance all night. I want to wake up in the morning and watch sunrise, then walk the length of Simonton (which makes no sense to you unless you have done it) and then watch the sunset. I want a long tracker, real tropical cyclone vs some sacrificial tropical depression offered to ancient Mayan Gods who refuse to let the season begin without one very mediocre named tropical storm. Please let that one be Don as I'm not up to the nonstop jokes the media will make on Hurricane Don. Let's just not go there. Make Don a fish storm and let's let this be the year that the name Emily is finally retired!!

And that's the state of the tropic this Monday Morning. Keep watching. If anything pops up on the models in the short term that was not there last night or this morning I'll mention it. I'd be very shocked if we don't have a healthy wave with designation after July 4th weekend and so I suggest you all do your July 4th thing and enjoy the end of June and early July before we start rocking and rolling again. The period from July 7th to July 13th looks ripe for trouble. 

I could be right, I could be wrong but the guy who liked that song was a lot of fun to dance with all night long ;)

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter.

Follow me on Twitter 

Ps I'm not a big Billy Joel fan, really more an 80s girl but... 

... you might be the lunatic I'm looking for...

2 great names Billy and Joel

You can't go wrong with those two.