Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, June 08, 2020

Cristobal a Stormy Story Still Unfolding. Where's Dolly? Will Dolly Be a Deja Vu Storm in GOM? African Waves.... A Look at Hurricane History. Matthew, Florence, Sandy and the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane. Miami Beach History & Architecture




Cristobal inland and still traveling.
Has a passport to Canada...
..and no govt official can keep him out.

I'll do an End Game Post on Cristobal....
...when it's oveer. 
Because the story is far from over.

As for the Tropics today...
..what are we looking at?
Tropical Possibilities.


That's high latitude trouible for June.
June too soon but is it in 2020?
Below is the SW Carib.
Models show a Deja Vu storm forming...
...and moving up into the GOM AGAIN.
Is that Dolly? 
Say it ain't Deja Vu Dolly?


Time will tell.

In motion below.





Yes there is in area the Atlantic there is a yellow area.
NHC walking back it's chances so ...
....not gonna talk on it now.

But further out in the Atlantic is a Wave off Africa.
A wave departing Africa higher up...
..where they are supposed to be.
Where they need to be to develop.
5 degrees is too far South.
10 degrees and we have possibilities.

We will talk on that later.
Today I'm looking back a bit at history.
Why????
Because history repeats.
And we learn from history!

These images from Tropical Storm Cristobal isnpired today's Hurricane History part of the blog.

Currently Cristobal is moving up through the center of the Country, still in the South but on his way Northbound carrying with it the potential for severe weather and localized flooding. Honestly, that has been it's legacy as it's distant weather pounded Central Florida with thunderstorms and tornadoes and localized flooding in the delta regions of Louisiana along the barrier islands of Mississippi. People seem surprised because it was "only a Tropical Storm" and a pretty minimal one intensity wise but a wet, tropical storm can carry with it a whole lot of water.


Steve means lousy as in intensity.
But in watery misery for those cleaning up...
...it was a messy, crappy storm.
Not intense, but size wise huge and wet.


That's sand not sea foam.

I saw this picture from post Tropical Storm Cristobal coverage and it amazed me that people were amazed that this could or would happen. If you live in a beach town and the tropical wind brings in a tropical storm or hurricane it's common to have your streets near the beach covered in sand; adding especially if the storm has come a long ways to your door to deliver you that sand. It's often not how intense a hurricane is, but on the contrary, how far it has traveled to get to your destination.



Sand covered the boardwalk in Long Beach, NY after Sandy a once Major Hurricane going extratropical tore up the boardwalk and flooded homes, businesses and left a mess after traveling a long distance from the Deep Caribbean.



You have to think of a hurricane as a living breathing thing, that has traveled huge distances carrying with it a dome of water and moving endlessly until it can't travel anymore on the ocean and then it rams itself up onto your door like a wrecking ball. A storm such as Matthew or Florence will do more water damage than a storm that blows up immediately and makes landfall suddenly. Again, I said "water damage" vs strong winds or severe weather. Matthew made landfall as a Caegory 1 Hurricane in South Carolina as it's explosive water footprint stomped far inland into North Carolina a mere ghosts of it's intensity when it churned off the coast of South America as a Major Hurricane. The water pushed inland, far inland filling up every river basin in North Carolina covering farms, homes and towns as it flung itself onto land unable to make that turn away as the Hurricane Center had often predicted earlier that it would before going out to sea. Matthew's wet legacy just kept on coming, like a big, huge train unable to stop on a dime the way a fast sports car would be able to and that is common in such hurricanes. Nothing new under the Tropical Sun as they say.

Hurricane Florence, two years later, drenched the same region of the Carolinas with flooding rains and tremendous water damage as a mere shadow of itself, no longer a Cat 3 or 4 or 5 hurricane but one filled with rain, water and endless misery.

Matthew's track below.
Quite the traveler.


A wave that developed just before the Islands.
Sat on just off coast of South America...
...and had no problems with land interaction.

Below is Florence.
The Hurricane that refused to die.
A fish storm that kept swimming.
All the way across the ocean.


After being an intense Major Hurricane.
It reached it's destination as a shadow of itself.
And yet parts of the Carolinas are still cleaning up from it.


Old picture of Collins Avenue covered in sand.

Beware those long traveling storms.
Almost a hundred years earlier.. 
The 1926 Great Miami Hurricane shown below.


Obviously this started from a wave off of Africa.
Ship reports showed there was a West Indies Cyclone moving WNW.
That's what they called it then...
 And it slammed into Miami as a strong Category 4 hurricane.
And aside from the intense winds, it was a very wet hurricacne.
The streets flooded, sand covered Miami Beach.
From the Ocean to the Bay it was covered with sand.
Locals had to dig out their Model T Fords.


Wait for it to load, it's worth it ... because nothing like a real obituary of a hero of Miami beach.

A mere snippet of the story...



Rose Weiss, the "Mother of Miami Beach" attained that fame after practically single handledly forcing the dazed and confused survivors of the hurricane on Miami Beach to get out there and start cleaning the sand off the streets and cleaning up the mess the hurricane made. Rose walked up to Lincoln Road and into the offices of Carl Fisher where people had gathered, numb, in shock at the horrendous damage to their beautiful paradise and bullied everyone into getting out there and cleaning it up insisting Miami Beach would be better than it had been before. And, Rosie who grew up as child on Miami Beach was prophetic on that one as I don't even think that Carl Fisher could imagine how amazing Miami Beach would be in 2020.

Rose Weiss believed in Miami Beach, she knew it when it looked like this below from 1925 and it's still going strong. Buildings getting bigger, higher and really I love it but too many people for a mere mangrove Island in the Bay.


That's up near the Deauville.
A narrow part of the beach.
A place where the ocean meets the bay often...
...in a real hurricane!




Anyone who has ever driven to Miami Beach...
...across the Julia Tuttle Causeway knows this building.

I worked in that building.
I practically lived in that building at times.
It's called the Giller Building.
My kid's pediatrician was in that building.
I once had an After Prom Party there.. really.
My son briefly had an office there but that's a movie.
Giller and Giller Architects had offices in their building.
A family that survived the 1926 Hurricane...
.... how I don't really know. 
Sounds impossible but true.
And then he helped design a city.
Miami Beach was a paradise once again.


The water covered Miami Beach.
The raging ocean covered Miami Beach.
People survived, Norman Giller survived!
Went on to become an Architect....
.... that designed the future Miami Beach.

Understand, the people who survived the hurricane survived it by climbing up above the first floor of apartment buildings and watching as the water met the bay and covered all of South Beach. To this day it amazes me anyone survived that especially when you consider there were waves and storm surge as the waters were not just high but calm, they were a raging ocean. I interviewed a friend of my Grandfather who as a young boy remembers climbing up to the 3rd floor of an apartment building on 3rd Street at the tip of South Beach and watching waves battering the building. He remembered his father leaving the building to walk over to the services for Yom Kippur and having to come back because "there was so much rain the streets were flooding" but it wasn't flooding from the rain but the incoming storm surge of a strong Category 4 hurricane that covered the whole of Miami Beach and yet somehow, miraculously I'd add, some people survived while others died. Many died during the eye when they tried to make their way back to the mainland and the back side of the hurricane swept them off the causeway to a watery grave. Sounds melodramatic but very true. The 1926 Miami Hurricane is called that because it was indeed the real Miami Hurricane as Andrew made landfall further to the South sparing Downtown Miami from a disaster one cannot even imagine.

But Hurricane Betsy covered Miami Beach with sand also as did Andrew and many other storms over time. Miami Beach is basically a barrier island that was just a spit of land covered by mangroves that Miami people rowed over to in their boats for a picnic on Sunday before rowing back before dark while admiring dolphins and manatees in the water that was once crystal clear all the way to the bottom. Oh what a time it was... 

Look at it now!
High up above Lincoln Road.
Where my father had offices.
Where my son the architect loves to hang out.



Me, standing on top of the world of Miami Beach.


You can take the girl out of Miami Beach...
...but you can't take Miami Beach out of the girl.
You know why?
I got the sand in my toes ;)

Have a wonderful day.
When I go long on the Miami Hurricane...
...know tropical waves are rolling off of Africa.
And I see hurricanes on the horizon.

So prepare, do what you need to do.
And we will follow them step by step.
Advisory by advisory.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Know that Twitter is mostly weather.
Instagram is weather and anything I love.
Don't say I didn't warn you,














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Monday, June 24, 2019

EPAC Tries. African Wave Tries to Flare Up. June too Soon? July Things Will Come Together. Water Vapor Loop Shows the Beginning of the Changes Coming.



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This is an old school Water Vapor Loop.
Over the next few weeks you will see changes.
Everything flows, folds and is always evolving.
We are beginning the signature we see before things begin.
Despite Saharan Dust westbound waves fight their way West.
Moisture from the South is pushing North.
Systems coming of the East coast punch East.
At some point it becomes a clash zone.
Then we finally see what the High wants to do.

allfcsts_loop_ndfd.gif (799×559)

Watch the High over the SE dance back and forth.
The small Low off the coast of the Carolinas...
...finally gets picked up and sent out to sea.
The High goes West.......
The High moves into the GOM.
The High goes who knows... 

Why this is so important is down the road when waves become viable candidates for names and fame and begin the process of waking people up and realizing we are going to have a hurricane season you better have a plan. Why and where will they go? They will go where the High Pressure allows them to go. Think of the High Pressure as the General in charge of the battlefield or the Aircraft Control Tower trying to watch them take off of Africa and attempt to make a landing at an airbase somewhere along the hurricane coast.  Do this down the road named storm make landfall in South Florida or skirt the Florida coast or make it into the Gulf of Mexico turning North somewhere is all up to the High Pressure and where it is on any given day. If the High takes up a short term residence in the Gulf of Mexico and breaks apart where will that break form and will it leave Florida open to a landfalling hurricane? Or will it stay strong like some Science Fiction Force Field and protect Florida but not Texas? It's all about the High. 


The devil is always in the details.
In the fine print.
The NHC puts out fine print every day.
And they put out maps.
Note the maps below in particular.


Nicely spaced out.
Tomorrow you see waves.
The Day after tomorrow you see waves.... but wait.
What's that Low doing there to the North.
A frontal boundary.
Watch that loop above again and see the High wiggle West.
It's an atmospheric dance.


You never know what you find on YouTube.
But you get the idea....
When one feature moves this way....
...another feature moves that way.

And the waves move like they are dancing in a Conga Line..



It's also about how strong these waves are and currently they are strong and well spaced apart. Note the discussion today from the NHC on their ongoing wave watch and tropical Atlantic conditions they put out every day. When the shear lessens as it does eventually and the SAL loses control and the MJO makes his moves on the dance floor .... watch out!



"land in Miami the air hot from summer rain"
Yeah this year's pattern concerns me.

This brings me to the reminder that's it's been unbearably hot in Miami the last few weeks and wet, wet and hot and the beautiful Atlantic Ocean is warming up as I type this and listen to Gloria sing and dance. You know that new video going around called Senorita? Love it. So Miami and a bit of LA all mixed together but remember.... it speaks of landing in Miami and feeling the heat. Over 70 Million people have watched this video that was just released. That's HOT!



Currently we have a beautiful wave.....
.... there too soon.
Will more like this one soon follow?
Later rather than sooner one will develop.
This one is trying despite the dry dust guy SAL.


Look at that bright red color down there.
What can that wave be thinking?


Things are evolving.

atl_ir4_sat_tropicalindex_anim.gif (640×480)

Maybe something close in spins up sooner rather than later.


Nah just waiting for it's ticket out of town.
But look at that new wave over Africa.



EPAC may be getting their first storm.
Usually you wait a week to ten days for the Atlantic.
I'd say before July 10th or around then we will be busier.
Until then...... shop like Barry or Chantal are coming to party.
Because trust me once they start forming.
2019 will never be the same.

She's great.
Miami girls know hot, humid and sexy.
Trust me... and they know to take hurricanes seriously
;)


Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps... did you really think you were going to get another video?
Go prepare. Make lists. Just do it.
If you don't and get slammed by a Cane....
...you will never ever be the same!!

Bottom Right on www.spaghettimodels.com
Lots of links.
Use them!
You got lots of music to listen to while using those links!









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Wednesday, August 22, 2018

Updated! Yellow X over Africa in the 2 Day, Yellow Circle Near Africa in E ATL in 5 Day. Tropics Come Alive in Late August As Per Climo.


Thursday Morning Update.


Grid below tells the story for today.



This is the main story.
A less strong Lane moving towards Hawaii.
Rain from Lane will be the big story.
Rain and possibly flooding.
Also Lane is moving slow now.
So there will be a prolonged period of heavy rain.
Hawaii is not as used to rain as say Miami.
Both tropical cities but different in many ways.

Main point to remember about Lane.
It is NOT Hurricane Maria.
It is not going to slam Hawaii like PR.
It is going to make an impact.

Hawaii is much like Key West in ways.
If the stores sell out of supplies.
It takes a long time to resupply the stores.
It is an Island in the ocean.
That is why they are pressing people to stock up.
Even without a huge hit ...
...supplies of necessities will be limited for a while.



I'm going to keep this fairly simple this morning. The wave that has yet to exit off of Africa is a long term, long range threat nothing that is going to develop immediately. That said it may not develop at all but we are watching it and it's a good reminder that September is around the corner and better to shop now for basics you need in case of a hurricane than a day or two before. Looking at the images above you see the story, looking up close tells the story with more definition. Note the slow movement between forecast points in the image directly above showing the prolonged period of heavy, tropical rains areas of Hawaii will feel even while Lane is slowly decreasing in actual wind intensity. Luckily Lane is weakening and should be spared a total direct hit but any large slow moving hurricane needs to be watched carefully that has huge amounts of weather as did Hurricane Matthew that had problems pulling away and turning as fast as the NHC originally forecast it would and it did make landfall in South Carolina. The huge amount of rain it carried with it a long ways spread out over the Carolinas once again flooding out the same regions that Hurricane Floyd swamped with rain. Different geography there as coastal Carolinas is a mix of marsh, swamp and river flood basins. Hawaii has mountains, hills and areas where the water can race down the hillside taking out major roads needed to resupply local stores. Something to think on...


At the most they will expect strong Tropical Storm force conditions.
Wet, strong Tropical Storm with huge rain totals.
A gusts to hurricane force possible.


As for the Wave near Africa.
Chances are down to 10%
Why? 
1 models likes it.
The other model does not like it.
GFS pulled it's support.
Euro hung with it.


It's a long term wait and see what happens.
One possible scenario is shown below.
They are a pay per service and they are good.
They also Tweet often so you can get good info there.




One train of thought is the wave develops closer in...
...down the tropical road.
Some models suggest goes W gets into GOM
Other models suggest it moves up along the E Coast.
Keep watching.

Sadly some of the sites we use are still down :(


Notice the red print at the top of the image above.
They are working on it.
Getting most back online.

Stay tuned I'll update later in the day with more information.
Until then.
We do what we got to do.

latest_wv_loop.gif (535×440)

Gone but not forgotten........

I'll admit I love that they upgraded the satellites yet they pulled the old ones that worked always and forever without ever a problem and now the new satellites do not work as well and when they go down you are stuck with broken links and half usable loops that make your eyes blurry and well it's annoying. I liked the old WV satellite loops. I want them back. It's not happening. It will never be the same I know, it' changes and things evolve and you got to get with the program but you got to fix what's broken.  As for me I'm high on weather and satellite loops and talking about weather with my friends and I'm trying not to be negative so going to go out and get some fresh air. I'm going to turn the music up and dance and get exercise and happy and I'll be back later.......  later gator.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter


Wednesday Blog if you haven't read it.
Keep reading.
Or heck read it anyway :)



First we have a yellow x in the 2 Day Forecast.
The X is over Africa as the wave has not yet come off.


The 2 day above.


The five day has a yellow circle where something could form.
Low chances now so we will wait and see.
But it's the first time in a while we see...
...an X or circle over by Africa.




You can see the wave train I spoke about earlier today.

There is a sense of a spin there currently.

latest72hrs.gif (947×405)T

The satellite sites were having problems earlier today.
They are up but not 100% ready for prime time.
At least they are up and working.

Some things to think on.


Note the comment about the outage I mentioned today.
On Mike's www.spaghettimodels.com you can scroll down.
Hurricane Lane is at the top, keep scrolling down.


Areas highlighted that the NHC has put in yellow.
I also want to show you the SAL view.
Stretched thin.
Apparently SAL has to go back to school in September.
No more summer vacation in the East Atlantic.
Kind of on it's last legs, finally.


There have been many long range models, very long range models, that show something developing in this region and being a player down the road. Nothing WOW yet but something to make you raise your eye brows some. This is as expected as expected can be as we move towards Labor Day Weekend and the beginning of September. We watch Africa for any signs of vorticity because when a tropical wave comes off that has it's own small low embedded in it ... it has a higher chance for developing than when it comes off with a huge amount of convection but no "there" there.



Time to start paying attention.

As for Hurricane Lane it is trending towards the left.
That would be better for Hawaii.
Meanwhile they need to prepare in case it trends right.



This may or may not work.
It's a now live feed going into Lane by Recon.


Stay tuned for more information later today. Also check out the previous blog post on our very strong Category 4 Hurricane Lane in the Pacific and some discussion on how Hurricane Recon began.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2018/08/hurricane-lane-will-it-or-wont-it-hit.html






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Monday, July 09, 2018

Wrightsville Beach Day. Tropical Storm Chris Waiting on Upgrade to Hurricane. Expansive Storm the Opposite of Hurricane Beryl. Remnants of Beryl to Follow Chris. More Waves Rolling Off Africa.




Red Flag Warning 
Not so much for the waves or wind...
...but what a Rip Tide.
Strong, nonstop energy.
You can definitely tell a Tropical Storm is off the coast.


Those people look as if they are far out into the water, but they really barely standing in surf to their ankles. The waves are washing in strong and pulling out even stronger. You can stand on Johnnie Mercer Pier and watch this watery, stormy ballet for the inexpensive cost of $2 per adult. Best show in town and what a wonderful fishing pier. Go out to the end where the weather equipment is and the hard core fishermen out there all the time in almost any weather. There's an area closer in by the restaurant where you can sit and lick your Bunny Tracks Ice Cream Cone while watching the show below. Doesn't get much better than that. Oh, did I mention the air temperatures were cool after the "cold front" zipped through and with the clouds out most of the time it's a delightful break from the "feels like 104" temperatures most of the cities round these parts dealt with last week. Don't go INTO the water but feel free to shop around the store in the Pier, enjoy some beach snacks and play pinball if you are tired of being out on the beach. The view from the pier in any weather is a winner.


Note on days like yesterday the waves were breaking far from the shore.
Surfers were out but not as much as usual.
I was told the winds were problematic.
Old video as Hurricane Irene was about to pass by.


Surfers love Wilmington.
Hard not to love Wrightsville Beach nearby.

Not going to do model discussion today.
You know where to find the models.
Duh...


I'm going to write a bit today. 
So read or watch the pictures.
Some good videos.
Enjoy the music at the end.

Not going to long on discussion here about what will be with Chris because the reality is that at some point it will get picked up and go out to sea. It would have to be an epic forecast bust for this to come ashore and directly impact the coastline. Many storms have busted the forecast and taken a day trip to various parts of North Carolina in similar scenario, however it is not expected to do so. It is currently anchored or rather drifting a bit to the South while doing a loop. Understand water is warm there, warmer to the South but the problem Chris is having turning itself into the 2nd Hurricane of the 2018 Season is systemic to it's size and in contrast to small Tropical Storm Beryl that like a fast sports car was able to make those turns much faster than an 18 wheeler. 

Ever take a trip in a Winnebago? I haven't but know some people who have and they have to plot out the places they can go carefully, because there are some places they cannot go with a large, behomoth vehicle that you can barely park anywhere yet alone take on a high, sharp, twisting bridge. But out on the open road they look wonderful. Some people opt for the smaller kind and well to be honest some people pour their money into a boat and others pour their money into Motorhomes. Usually people who love the call of the open road, the romance of the trailer and many are afraid to fly. 


Seriously.
Think of Chris like a big ole Winnebago.
Big, fun, colorful.


It's harder for a big, huge, expansive circulation.
To ramp up into a hurricane.

But take a small, cute mustang.
Find a long, winding road.
Watch the small sports car do what...
...a large Winnebago could never do.




Because Beryl was so small it could evade the Saharan Dust in cooler water and do what a small, fast sports car could do. Huge, beautiful Chris looping off the Outer Banks and the Carolinas is so big, so large and it's wind field is having a problem contracting and maintaining extreme convection and the high winds it needs to become the hurricane it is forecast to do. This is a long term story, not for the feint of heart who need an immediate ending here. Move on if you are looking for a story told in a day or two. Watch the rescue of the Thai children stuck in the cave with their coach coming out by one one winding their way under water being led out by heroes risking their lives to get these kids to safety. Come back in a day or two Chris will be there. 


Discussion below:


Salient part in blue.


MOST IMPORTANT PART
LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS



Still forecast to be a HURRICANE.


Now let's talk about Beryl.
I know they killed it off right?
Right.
Well...not so right.
They killed it off but....
...they are still watching it's remnants.


Seems like Beryl likes Chris.
Beryl's remnants 40% currently...
...to redevelop.


For now "Beryl" is an open wave.
Note there is a very small swirl on some sat images left.
But it's easy to say it's dead in the water.
Not really.
Kicking up weather in the Islands.
Flaring up on radar bigger now ...
...than it was as a hurricane.


Actually Beryl's Remnants raining over PR
Below you can see our areas we are watching.
Chris off the Carolinas.
Remnants of Beryl in the Islands.
Tropical Wave coming off of Africa.
Moisture in the Caribbean.
Note how Beryl's Remnants are sucking up moisture..
..from the ITCZ
For now "Beryl" has a good fuel supply.

latest72hrs.gif (947×405)

Chris wants to be a hurricane.
Watch for baroclinic and extratropical in discussion.
Expansive Wind Field...

Note the tropics below.


In motion

hiatlsat_None_anim.gif (768×496)

Chris trying to pull it together.
Wearing pretty tropical colors today on NRL


Track from NRL.


Shaded area needs to watch carefully.
Track of Chris in red in the middle.

Below you can see Chris from up above.
You can't see Beryl's Remnants.


Turn the world around.
Maria in the West Pacific.
Moving towards China.


My youngest son is in China this week.
Enjoying Architectural wonders.
I'm home watching on Snapchat and WhatsApp

Yeah praying Maria finds a less populated spot to make landfall.
Then Shanghai or Beijing. 


What do you do about a problem named Maria?
Stop using that name please.
Trying not to think on that.

Let's go back to the beach.
Go, enjoy but stay out of the water.
Sit a spell.
Feel the waves on your toes.
Reach down and feel the water.
Life is good at the beach.


There's always that one guy.
Who needs to touch the water.
Feel it run through this fingers.


He and the others got swamped by a strong wave.
A little bit later. 
:)

It was a wonderful day at the beach.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

https://www.facebook.com/bobbi.storm.5


Ps... I'll update as we get more information from Recon.
This will be a Live Blog at some point today.
If and when Chris is updated to Hurricane.
Til then enjoy the music.


Oh and I have a friend with a birthday today.
This song is for him.
















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