Cristobal a Stormy Story Still Unfolding. Where's Dolly? Will Dolly Be a Deja Vu Storm in GOM? African Waves.... A Look at Hurricane History. Matthew, Florence, Sandy and the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane. Miami Beach History & Architecture

Cristobal inland and still traveling.

Has a passport to Canada...

..and no govt official can keep him out.

I'll do an End Game Post on Cristobal....

...when it's oveer. 

Because the story is far from over.

As for the Tropics today...

..what are we looking at?

Tropical Possibilities.

That's high latitude trouible for June.

June too soon but is it in 2020?

Below is the SW Carib.

Models show a Deja Vu storm forming...

...and moving up into the GOM AGAIN.

Is that Dolly? 

Say it ain't Deja Vu Dolly?

Time will tell.

In motion below.

#MondayMorning #thoughts on the tropics #cristobal & where’s #Dolly? Will Dolly be a #Dejavu #storm? Definitely maybe https://t.co/XLVVLmtkcS #writing #weather #hurricane #history #miami #miamibeach #architecture pic.twitter.com/NGazgGTG0z

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) June 8, 2020

Yes there is in area the Atlantic there is a yellow area.

NHC walking back it's chances so ...

....not gonna talk on it now.

But further out in the Atlantic is a Wave off Africa.

A wave departing Africa higher up...

..where they are supposed to be.

Where they need to be to develop.

5 degrees is too far South.

10 degrees and we have possibilities.

We will talk on that later.

Today I'm looking back a bit at history.

Why????

Because history repeats.

And we learn from history!

These images from Tropical Storm Cristobal isnpired today's Hurricane History part of the blog.

Currently Cristobal is moving up through the center of the Country, still in the South but on his way Northbound carrying with it the potential for severe weather and localized flooding. Honestly, that has been it's legacy as it's distant weather pounded Central Florida with thunderstorms and tornadoes and localized flooding in the delta regions of Louisiana along the barrier islands of Mississippi. People seem surprised because it was "only a Tropical Storm" and a pretty minimal one intensity wise but a wet, tropical storm can carry with it a whole lot of water.

Steve means lousy as in intensity.

But in watery misery for those cleaning up...

...it was a messy, crappy storm.

Not intense, but size wise huge and wet.

That's sand not sea foam.

I saw this picture from post Tropical Storm Cristobal coverage and it amazed me that people were amazed that this could or would happen. If you live in a beach town and the tropical wind brings in a tropical storm or hurricane it's common to have your streets near the beach covered in sand; adding especially if the storm has come a long ways to your door to deliver you that sand. It's often not how intense a hurricane is, but on the contrary, how far it has traveled to get to your destination.

Sand covered the boardwalk in Long Beach, NY after Sandy a once Major Hurricane going extratropical tore up the boardwalk and flooded homes, businesses and left a mess after traveling a long distance from the Deep Caribbean.

You have to think of a hurricane as a living breathing thing, that has traveled huge distances carrying with it a dome of water and moving endlessly until it can't travel anymore on the ocean and then it rams itself up onto your door like a wrecking ball. A storm such as Matthew or Florence will do more water damage than a storm that blows up immediately and makes landfall suddenly. Again, I said "water damage" vs strong winds or severe weather. Matthew made landfall as a Caegory 1 Hurricane in South Carolina as it's explosive water footprint stomped far inland into North Carolina a mere ghosts of it's intensity when it churned off the coast of South America as a Major Hurricane. The water pushed inland, far inland filling up every river basin in North Carolina covering farms, homes and towns as it flung itself onto land unable to make that turn away as the Hurricane Center had often predicted earlier that it would before going out to sea. Matthew's wet legacy just kept on coming, like a big, huge train unable to stop on a dime the way a fast sports car would be able to and that is common in such hurricanes. Nothing new under the Tropical Sun as they say.

Hurricane Florence, two years later, drenched the same region of the Carolinas with flooding rains and tremendous water damage as a mere shadow of itself, no longer a Cat 3 or 4 or 5 hurricane but one filled with rain, water and endless misery.

Matthew's track below.

Quite the traveler.

A wave that developed just before the Islands.

Sat on just off coast of South America...

...and had no problems with land interaction.

Below is Florence.

The Hurricane that refused to die.

A fish storm that kept swimming.

All the way across the ocean.

After being an intense Major Hurricane.

It reached it's destination as a shadow of itself.

And yet parts of the Carolinas are still cleaning up from it.

Old picture of Collins Avenue covered in sand.

Beware those long traveling storms.

Almost a hundred years earlier.. 

The 1926 Great Miami Hurricane shown below.

Obviously this started from a wave off of Africa.

Ship reports showed there was a West Indies Cyclone moving WNW.

That's what they called it then...

 And it slammed into Miami as a strong Category 4 hurricane.

And aside from the intense winds, it was a very wet hurricacne.

The streets flooded, sand covered Miami Beach.

From the Ocean to the Bay it was covered with sand.

Locals had to dig out their Model T Fords.

http://docmgmt.miamibeachfl.gov/WebLink/DocViewM.aspx?id

=76141&page=1&dbid=0&cr=1

Wait for it to load, it's worth it ... because nothing like a real obituary of a hero of Miami beach.

A mere snippet of the story...

Rose Weiss, the "Mother of Miami Beach" attained that fame after practically single handledly forcing the dazed and confused survivors of the hurricane on Miami Beach to get out there and start cleaning the sand off the streets and cleaning up the mess the hurricane made. Rose walked up to Lincoln Road and into the offices of Carl Fisher where people had gathered, numb, in shock at the horrendous damage to their beautiful paradise and bullied everyone into getting out there and cleaning it up insisting Miami Beach would be better than it had been before. And, Rosie who grew up as child on Miami Beach was prophetic on that one as I don't even think that Carl Fisher could imagine how amazing Miami Beach would be in 2020.

Rose Weiss believed in Miami Beach, she knew it when it looked like this below from 1925 and it's still going strong. Buildings getting bigger, higher and really I love it but too many people for a mere mangrove Island in the Bay.

That's up near the Deauville.

A narrow part of the beach.

A place where the ocean meets the bay often...

...in a real hurricane!

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/fl-xpm-2001-11-04-0111020746-story.html

Anyone who has ever driven to Miami Beach...

...across the Julia Tuttle Causeway knows this building.

I worked in that building.

I practically lived in that building at times.

It's called the Giller Building.

My kid's pediatrician was in that building.

I once had an After Prom Party there.. really.

My son briefly had an office there but that's a movie.

Giller and Giller Architects had offices in their building.

A family that survived the 1926 Hurricane...

.... how I don't really know. 

Sounds impossible but true.

And then he helped design a city.

Miami Beach was a paradise once again.

The water covered Miami Beach.

The raging ocean covered Miami Beach.

People survived, Norman Giller survived!

Went on to become an Architect....

.... that designed the future Miami Beach.

Understand, the people who survived the hurricane survived it by climbing up above the first floor of apartment buildings and watching as the water met the bay and covered all of South Beach. To this day it amazes me anyone survived that especially when you consider there were waves and storm surge as the waters were not just high but calm, they were a raging ocean. I interviewed a friend of my Grandfather who as a young boy remembers climbing up to the 3rd floor of an apartment building on 3rd Street at the tip of South Beach and watching waves battering the building. He remembered his father leaving the building to walk over to the services for Yom Kippur and having to come back because "there was so much rain the streets were flooding" but it wasn't flooding from the rain but the incoming storm surge of a strong Category 4 hurricane that covered the whole of Miami Beach and yet somehow, miraculously I'd add, some people survived while others died. Many died during the eye when they tried to make their way back to the mainland and the back side of the hurricane swept them off the causeway to a watery grave. Sounds melodramatic but very true. The 1926 Miami Hurricane is called that because it was indeed the real Miami Hurricane as Andrew made landfall further to the South sparing Downtown Miami from a disaster one cannot even imagine.

But Hurricane Betsy covered Miami Beach with sand also as did Andrew and many other storms over time. Miami Beach is basically a barrier island that was just a spit of land covered by mangroves that Miami people rowed over to in their boats for a picnic on Sunday before rowing back before dark while admiring dolphins and manatees in the water that was once crystal clear all the way to the bottom. Oh what a time it was... 

Look at it now!

High up above Lincoln Road.

Where my father had offices.

Where my son the architect loves to hang out.

Me, standing on top of the world of Miami Beach.

You can take the girl out of Miami Beach...

...but you can't take Miami Beach out of the girl.

You know why?

I got the sand in my toes ;)

Have a wonderful day.

When I go long on the Miami Hurricane...

...know tropical waves are rolling off of Africa.

And I see hurricanes on the horizon.

So prepare, do what you need to do.

And we will follow them step by step.

Advisory by advisory.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Know that Twitter is mostly weather.

Instagram is weather and anything I love.

Don't say I didn't warn you,

Miami Hurricane History. Learn From History. Prepare Now. Make Plans Be #HurricaneStrong. How 2017 Could Be Like 1979 or 1926? ALL of Florida in Play This Hurricane Season As Well as Neighbors in Our Other States in Hurricane Country.

Today is July 7th and we are tracking a Tropical Depression that has stubbornly refused to die but all tropical systems have their own day in the sun and as I have said before all storms run out of rain eventually. July tropical systems are rare and yet they happen often though one forming out in the Atlantic before the Islands is pretty rare. West bound African Waves in July are usually followed by the die hard trackers and ignored by the long time meteorologists who know July is often too early for African Waves to form into anything that requires designation. In 1926 July was not too early and an early Hurricane formed from an African wave in what would go on to be a historic and memorable hurricane season.

The busy 1926 Hurricane Season is shown above.

Remember it began in July with a west bound tropical wave.

Sadly for Miami in 1926 there were more storms to follow.

A lot to say today even though nothing is immediately important regarding any one hurricane or tropical system. It is worth noting that a cone has been posted by the NHC for a storm that is forecast to fade away. That said some models do show some part of it coming back stronger later down the road. Only time will tell what happened with TD4 and the new wave that rolled off Africa that models are currently forecasting will develop into another named storm in July. Another post will be put up briefly to discuss TD4 and the one that follows that may get the name Don unless something not expected happens with TD4 or if the wave rolling off of Africa becomes another victim of Saharan Dust. Time will tell. Today I want to talk about some storms we can look at in the rear view mirror and we can learn from as history repeats especially if you live in the path of tropical trouble. And, Miami and most of Florida is always in the path of a potential storm and yet rarely gets a direct hit compared to say the Outer Banks in North Carolina. Miami is known as the Magic City and I truly hope that magic mojo we got going continues for a long time.

I'm a Miamian who was born and raised in Miami. My family has lived in Florida since the 1800s. I'm what you call a native born Floridian. I can also claim the title of being an official Conch as my ancestors were one of the earliest Jews to open up shop in Key West and were naturalized as "citizens of Key West" back before the "Turn of the Century" and I do mean the 1900s not the current century. They went through storms in Key West, Miami, the 1921 Hurricane in Tampa and many; so many it's hard to even name all the storms they lived through in Florida. My Uncle survived the 1926 Hurricane as a small child and talked often of stories you don't want to hear on a dark, moonless night with a strong breeze blowing. I know Miami and I know Hurricanes so that said... please read on and the take away message is to use the links posted at the bottom of this post to properly prepare for a Hurricane. And, this year with the new policies in place from the NHC you will have very early warning and I urge you IF warnings are posted for your piece of Florida Real Estate please take them seriously and act accordingly!

My goal this morning is to make people think and take this current hurricane season seriously. Yes ACE has been low and many believe TS Cindy should never been a "Tropical Storm" vs a "Subtropical" and it's easy to point out the A storm back that formed way before the season started... but don't ignore the obvious. We are tracking TD 4 that formed before 40 West in the first week of July from a viable CV Wave that came off of Africa in late June. June wasn't too soon this year and that should tell you something. If you live in Miami or New Orleans or Tampa or Charleston and do not have a hurricane plan for this coming year you obviously like to live by the seat of your pants and are an adrenaline junkie. Or you are totally living in denial and spending way too much time thinking on the August eclipse and not worrying on a busy Hurricane Season.

Many killer hurricane seasons were loaded with junk Tropical Storms that never amounted to much, but the pattern was there and the like a pinball machine broken that keeps automatically shooting balls out of the chute one or two big ones make it into the record books. Look at 1992 a relatively weak year all in all yet Andrew is forever remembered by the numbers 1992. Weak season or busy season what you need to wonder on is not the eclipse that can be plotted and waited for (clear skies permitting) is the hurricane season of 2017. Heck you can chase an eclipse in real time the way we chase storms.. changing plans with the weather. IF a Hurricane has your hometown written on it's sleeve you can't pick up your house and runaway. Though a really strong hurricane could pick up parts of your house and distribute parts of it into neighbors yards.

Do you have a plan for the Hurricane Season? If not.. make one. And make multiple options. What you would do for a Cat 1 or Cat 2 hurricane is NOT what you would do for a Cat 4 Hurricane. And what you would do for a slow moving Tropical Storm that will flood your low lying backyard is not what you would do for a Cat 4 Hurricane moving WNW at 18 MPH around a strong High Pressure Ridge. You can pray for a miracle that it will turn and make landfall upstate like Hurricane David did but sometimes like Hurricane Andrew they just keep coming at you like a buzz saw moving closer and closer until it tries to blow your house down. Surviving a hurricane is often either a matter of shear luck or having executed a well developed plan. Thankfully the NHC does all it can to give you the earliest possible warning of real tropical trouble descending on your beautiful tropical town.

Now let's illustrate this with some Hurricane History.

1979 Hurricane David creates long lines and panic in the Miami Area as a Killer Hurricane that was deadly in the Islands takes aim at South Florida. Miami hadn't had a hurricane in a long time and there was a lot of denial as well as many new residents in the Miami area. Spoiler Alert.. David turned away and did make landfall further upstate. Unfortunately for many Miami residents who got in their cars and drove in traffic jams out of Miami that took cheap, poorly made motel rooms up the state near where Hurricane David made landfall. Oops. Their homes were safe but often their motel rooms were wet and they were terrified in unfamiliar surroundings but hey they had homes to go home to ...so Miami got lucky.



In 1992 another hurricane took aim at Miami and half the population went into sheer panic mode (as no one really had to make hurricane plans in years) and the other half shrugged insistent it would turn away like David did in back in 1979. Miami, understand please, goes through long dry periods without landfalls that make the inhabitants sure there is some protective force field around our part of Florida that sticks out into the ocean daring a hurricane to visit. OBX in NC gets hurricanes much more than Miami does and rarely does Tampa get a direct hit. But in any given year a hurricane can show up like an unwanted relative on your doorstep.

David was a hurricane that people watched on the Nightly News slam into the Islands and created panic way in advance of it's actual watches and warnings. There's something about those storms that taste blood in the Islands that make people upstream wake up and so they should as they often go on to do it again. Cleo, Hugo, David are three such storms that people took seriously early on because of the fury it unleashed onto the Islands before continuing on towards the SE coast of America.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1935/3/track.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1992/ANDREW/track.gif

Then you have hurricanes like Andrew that seemingly pop up out of nowhere from struggling Tropical Storms that choose a bad time for the USA to pull it together. Sort of in the same way that the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane suddenly intensified from weak tropical storm status to landfall as a historic Category 5 a few days later. I suppose with our new satellite imagery we would have been tracking the Labor Day Hurricane as a weak Invest forecast to intensify to strong Tropical Storm with one or two models showing crazy scenarios that were discounted early on and trusted later. With our new warning system in place there would have been watches and warnings issued way before it actually intensified over the Gulfstream and those vets would have gotten out of Long Key before the storm surge moved in and took the rescue train that was running late out to sea.



Then we come to the 1926 Hurricane that actually hit Miami dead on as a Category 4 hurricane that created a storm surge that washed over Miami Beach before marching down Flagler Street in downtown Miami testing it's new Bayfront park before the park was even finished.

I want you to look at the 1926 Hurricane Season carefully. For one there is a strong parallel in that a hurricane formed before the Islands in July. It had a different track from Bret and TD4 but the early formation and the strong high makes it worth remembering.

In July a Hurricane took aim at the fairly young city of Miami, yet much like Hurricane David it moved on up the coast and brushed Miami knocking down trees that needed trimming and taking down some poorly built boom time construction with it. People laughed it off as the Winter Season tourists were far away and the early residents used to hard jobs in year round tropical heat went about picking up debris and making the Magic City beautiful again. It was called by locals a "tree trimmer" storm and as it moved away Miami seemed magically safe and sadly future warnings in September were taken with huge bags of salt so to speak. 

In September another storm warning was posted and Hurricane Flags were hoisted and Miami was warned to watch out for a West Indies Cyclone. Miami Weatherman Richard Gray ran about begging people to take note of the storm that was on it's way. Some took it seriously but they were mostly old timers who remembered stories about the few storms that made landfall in South Florida and the Florida Keys. Most of the newcomers in the new city had no clue what would follow that golden dawn in the morning that was said to be the color of burnished copper. The word "clueless" would be an understatement here and it's worth remembering Miami was barely 30 years old as a city with very little hurricane history to remember. 

Compare and contrast those tracks.

Why did I go long with a post about Miami Hurricanes this morning rather than going long on small but tenacious Tropical Depression 4 and the new wave off of Africa? Because I want this to be a stand alone post I can refer to somewhere down the road if needed. And, most importantly I want you to take this particular year seriously. If we get lucky the Magical City of Miami will not get visited by a Hurricane. But, you can't rely on luck even if you can kiss the dice and wish for it often. You can prepare for a Hurricane vs say an Earthquake. Hurricanes happen but they don't JUST HAPPEN you have time to PREPARE and there are numerous sites online where you can find information relevant to your particular life.

Do you have more than one child in diapers? You need to stock up now when you see a sale and not use them until after the season is over in October or November? Buy LOTS of Baby Wipes both for use on the baby and for use when your water is questionable to use and you need to clean up without using up your treasure chest of water that you hopefully are putting away in case you get a visit from a West Indies Cyclone as they used to call them. And, if you get a visitor from the Bahamas lots of luck.

Do you take medicine on a regular basis? Get an extra new inhaler if you have asthma. Do you take Diabetes or Blood Pressure medication? Stock up on Over the Counter Allergy meds as trust me you will need them after the storm as the clean up has it's own unique problems. Buy lots of kleenex and paper products, you can be ecologically minded after the storm. If the storm moves on donate them to a homeless shelter that will use them.

Do you have pets? Do you have a plan? Buy extra pet food especially if you have a large dog..

Do you have elderly members of the family that need to be taken into consideration? Do you live near the beautiful bay or out in the far reaches of the suburbs?

Use these links please! Save them, refer to them and hopefully you will not need to use them.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/prepare/ready.php
http://www.publix.com/pages/publix-storm-basics
http://wsvn.com/news/be-ready-how-to-prepare-for-a-storm/

Please go to those sites, read the information as Hurricanes are one of the few natural disasters you can try and prepare for and as I said make contingent plans based on needing to evacuate from the proverbial BIG ONE vs a Category 1 Hurricane you will easily ride out safely IF you are prepared and knowledgeable in advance.

October Hurricanes that hit Miami from the SW are another sort of storm we will discuss later in September as this season is hot to trot and running a month ahead of track at least.

1979 had strong tropical waves early on...

...much like this year.

While TD 4 is still a work in process... 

This chart below will be filled in by October.

 Between now and then you can prepare for the worst.

Pray for the best, but prepare for the worst.

And I say pray vs "hope" as I know hurricanes.

And I know Miami History.

I love Miami.

Nowhere like it... 

But sometimes those beautiful breezes from Biscayne Bay..

...can blow a strong, steady wind.

And Hurricane Flags are hoisted.

And watches are posted.

And cones are put out by the NHC.

Don't say I didn't warn ya.. 

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter.

Follow me on Twitter for updates in real time.

Check out #HurricaneStrong on Twitter or online.

And understand this year is said to be by many in the know similar to the year 1979. Let's hope it's not like 1926 that began in July with an Atlantic named storm before the Islands.

Cindy's Aftermath.Flooding, Tornadoes. Moving E and NE. EPAC Busier, Atlantic Takes a Short Break For You to Prepare for Hurricane Season. Hurricane History Miami, Tampa Due for a Real Direct Hit. Forecasting in 2017 vs 1917. Who Am I?

A look at Cindy's remnants in motion.

The exact location of Cindy's "center" above.

New Madrid area actually...

...sorry how my mind works.

As usual forecasting the worst weather in the weather mass formerly known as "messy Cindy" has not been easy for the NWS. They have erred on the side of caution with flood watches and warnings with some mention here and there for possible tornadoes and severe weather. Yesterday, out of nowhere and far from the "center" of Ex Cindy a tornado danced over Metro Atlanta. Not far away in Northern Alabama a tornado decided to visit a liquor store. Apparently it was picky as only some aisles saw debris while other aisles still had the bottles stacked as if nothing had happened.

This really does happen.
No walls left standing.

But some of the bottles upright as if a Twister wasn't just there....

Fairfield Alabama now on the map thanks to Cindy.

Pointing out two things here.

Above note the interior room structure remains..

Note the Mtns or high hills off in the distance.

There has been much discussion here as well as elsewhere as to the effect of topography and how it makes a bad situation worse if it's in the path of the remnants of a tropical cyclone in search of a frontal boundary. The issue of elevation intensifies the weather leading to possible flooding problems if rainfall is high or small random twisters starts to spin. And, the reason they tell you to go to an interior room in a tornado is you have a better chance of surviving.

After Hurricane Andrew people noticed similar patterns of wind flow that left some houses on a block barely touched while homes on the corners often were torn apart. A friend in Kendall had just bought a new bedroom set for her baby daughter. The wind entered the room and tore at things a bit, but nothing was broken. However the new furniture was scratched up by things unseen hitting it at high velocities. It then whooshed through the hallway into the next bedroom tossing everything about. The photos on the wall in the hallway were not even at an angle, as if nothing had happened. She and the baby spent the night of Andrew in a bedroom closet praying they would all survive. Her husband stayed outside with his back to the closet door hoping it would hold tight. The family photos just hung perfectly all through the hall where wind raced on it's way to destroying the back bedroom. Happens.

So Cindy is inland and her weather mass is moving North and East bringing potential problems with it and the NWS is doing a great job of warning everyone in it's path. Those watches and warnings along the Ohio Valley and the SE will move East over time so check in often with your best local source for weather news. nws.noaa.gov is the link for the NWS. Just enter your zipcode and I'm sure you know your zipcode so just do it if you live East of those warnings above as this whole mess moves East and North. Weather in Kentucky may get dicey later today! This is not just your every day cold front or summer weather moving through. And please make it move through faster as it's way too hot and humid in Raleigh today.

As for the rest of the tropics.

The Epac has an Invest.

As usual the Epac screams "my turn, my turn!!" 

... after an Atlantic storm dies out in June.

They seem to take turns sometimes.

There's a real scientific reason for it but ...

...let's just say energy moves about.

In the Atlantic you can see the curvature of a tropical wave.

Waves will be departing Africa that are more viable in a week or so.

Nothing is currently being shown by the models.

But models update often and so should you.

Always stay on top of the weather.

The tornado that formed over Atlanta...

..had no Tornado Watch.

See the map from yesterday below.

When the tornado was spotted...

..NWS put a Tornado Warning up immediately. 

Weather can happen like that...

Climate is always.

Weather can be like a one night stand...

As a writer I try to stay light here and explain the dynamics of tropical weather in a way that is easy for the lay person to understand. I don't tout my meteorological knowledge or education but let me say that it's extensive. From studying meteorology and geography in college to a point that it was obsessive to learning from people I have.. collaborated with online and in person while doing research at the NHC Library. And reading my whole life books on hurricane history that were then out of print and that are almost impossible to find today. I've been through numerous hurricanes, done storm chasing and been chased by a few too many hurricanes. Trust me it's way better to chase a hurricane than to be chased by one. Chasers move about with knowledge of both roads, weather conditions and other chasers. You cannot pick up a two story, 13 room home built four blocks from the Atlantic Ocean. You can do your best to protect it and you and pray the storm hooks to the right or left and leaves it in better shape than that ABC Liquor Store in Alabama. My house on Miami Beach in Hurricane Andrew was high and dry and in good shape. A block away a ladies roof took off and set sail in the wind landing in her neighbors back yard pool and the yard and partially on her house. 

As a writer I try to put this into a frame work you can understand rather than talking in academic language that if you understood you probably wouldn't be reading this blog. Or maybe you would as I have some friends in the world of academia who seem to enjoy reading my thoughts.

Bottom Line:

Weather can spin up fast and the NWS moves fast to stay on top of changes in real time to a forecast. Forecasters dealing with multiple models giving totally different solutions did the best they could and they did a very good job at the NHC with Tropical Storm Cindy. Kudos to the rule changes that allow for faster dissemination of information by way of watches and warnings before an actual center has shown itself. We can do that based on trust and reliance that we have now days in model forecasts for tropical development. We are lucky these days, in the old days people were not lucky they were caught without warnings often by Killer Hurricanes that suddenly swerved or made a turn where no ship could relay that information. 

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/sfl-1919-hurricane-story.html

We have been extremely lucky the last few decades as some areas were hit over and over by dangerous hurricanes in the past that have not been hit in recent times. Key West has been lucky that the worse they have seen was Wilma or Georges as the 1919 Hurricane was a big blow and then it went on to slam into Texas as well a a very bad hurricanes in 1910. Read the text above a few times and try to picture it in your mind. And understand the weather service back then did the best it could to protect the people in the path of storms, but there wasn't much lead time when they were wrong. Now we can warn people with a Tropical Storm Warning before the tropical storm is done forming.

Tampa is so overdue for a Major Hurricane pushing up into Tampa Bay that it makes some wonder if they paid off the devil. 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1921_Tampa_Bay_hurricane#tampa

Lastly no matter how many times we say September Remember it's been a long time since downtown Miami and the beautiful adjacent city of Miami Beach was hit by a Category 4 Hurricane. The last record we have of wind speed was before the anemometer was blown off the a rooftop of a hotel on Miami Beach. We have been very lucky and at some point our luck may run out. Trust me I hope not but I'm realistic and so should you be. Andrew hit Homestead directly Miami only felt it's destructive energy.

https://www.weather.gov/mfl/miami_hurricane

Read it and look through the pictures.

Be #Hurricanestrong go on...

We used to forecast by the barometer.

There are a lot more buildings there now...

...for ships at sea to be tossed into!

Trust me on this there is so much information online. At www.hurricanecity.com Jim Williams has a list of cities and he shows the history for most cities in Hurricane country. Miami is shown below. You learn from history so you can prepared for the tomorrow when a hurricane is coming straight at your town. Trust me. I said Cindy would hit the Sabine River area between Texas and Louisiana when asked by friends on Twitter over and over days before it made landfall there. I made it clear Cindy might move a bit more to the west or east but in that general region. And, I said that when other meteorologists insisted it would hook left into Mexico or aim at the coast of NW Florida. I know hurricanes and I know weather and on any given day weather can change fast and the NWS does their best to change the forecast. You have the final responsibility to stay on top of the weather.

http://www.hurricanecity.com/city/miami.htm

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter.
Follow me on Twitter for faster news and updates!