Hurricane History. Long Read. Watch the Videos.. Listen to the WIND... Hurricanes & The Florida Keys. Often What Happens in Florida Doesn't Stay in Florida ... It Ends up In NC NJ NY NE...

Can you name that Hurricane?

There really is nothing new under the sun and that is especially true when we are discussing weather in the tropics. In truth tropical storms as well as the Big Daddy of tropical systems the Hurricane do visit far away beaches in New England and on Long Island but what starts in the tropics doesn't always stay in the tropics. And whatever has happened in the past will repeat itself in the future with some minor variation so if you don't learn from history you really are doomed to have your little island paradise blown away by the next Major Hurricane. 

Now days we track online and follow the hurricanes on our Smart Phones yet as much as we have changed the way we follow hurricanes with incredible satellite imagery and models that get better at nailing down the track the hurricane remains the same. Rain, wind, squalls moving in tandem in a storm that is spinning like a top traveling across an ocean looking for a place to make landfall. Sometimes a weak tropical wave battling wind shear and dry SAL manages to pull itself together just enough to attain named status while the NHC debates downgrading it to depression status. A few days later it pulls together once past the SAL and the wind shear and develops rapidly changing direction suddenly and taking aim at South Florida and the Miami area from the East. The picture above is from a book that talked on the Great Labor Day Hurricane yet it could just as easily have been talking about Hurricane Andrew. 

Above was 1935

Below was 1960

Hurricane Donna made landfall in Marathon in the Florida Keys before going on to hit multiple cities in her long race to victory that ended up with people in New York getting hit by the same hurricane that made landfall in the Florida Keys. Before the Florida Keys it threatened the islands and flirted with Cuba, but for this blog's purpose we are focusing on the Florida Keys. In 1935 the Labor Day Hurricane made landfall close to Donna's landfall point but a bit further to the North around Long Key. Hurricane Betsy in 1965 made landfall in the Upper Keys though if you check it out online you may read it hit Louisiana. The point here is that history is often local from the perspective of the person viewing the history. I typed "Hurricane Donna Florida Keys" into the browser and hit images and multiple images appeared including one of a lady standing in what looks like her winter coat on the high steps of her front porch and I thought "no that's wrong" as Google found "Hurricane Donna" but Hurricane Donna was also New York's hurricane to remember. 

In Miami people worried on Hurricane Betsy and they prepared the same way we do now days even though that was a half a century ago. Yes, our satellite imagery is better and we have models that though they argue often give us a better handle on changing steering currents. We sample the air around the storm and well I'd like to think if we had the tools in 1965 that we have now we would have been able to forecast Betsy's loops. Then again maybe not as hurricanes by their very nature are erratic and difficult to pin down. That is why people spend lifetimes studying Atlantic Hurricanes as if they are looking for lost treasure or the Holy Grail. The real Holy Grail is Intensity Forecasting, the kind that would predict Hurricane Aletta's sudden intensification to Category 4 from seemingly out of nowhere. 

Before Hurricane Irma ever took aim on the Florida Keys after flirting with the Cuban coast history books are filled with the same scenario with regard to multiple hurricanes that did the same thing. Yes, each is different in some way but the track of a hurricane moving slowly blocked to it's North by a strong Bermuda High slowing down as it approaches and waiting patiently for the Bermuda High to give it's a pass and move a bit to the East so that like the old "Open Sesame" story the Hurricane suddenly lifts NW or WNW towards the Florida Keys.  Back then we didn't have the models we have now and yet even today the same drama holds tight as we hear the models show Hurricane Irma will make landfall near Miami and then Homestead and then the Florida Keys and only in the rear view mirror to we learn there is a place named Cudjoe Key. But to people on Big Pine Key it hit their key and others will look back and say it hit the "Lower Keys" and someone in Key West who lost their roof when part of an old banyan tree fell onto it will tell their grandchildren about the time Hurricane Irma hit Key West. In the part of the Florida Keys where people are trying to put their lives back together while filling out miles of forms they would probably ask Hurricane who when hearing someone ask on Hurricane Georges. Irma is still the Hurricane of the Hour in the Florida Keys.

Cyclone Jim above in Georges.

Hurricane Irma below.

We have changed the way we track and the way we forecast even at times forecasting development before the first bands of a storm begin to come together. Our models hit the mark sometimes and other times an old time forecaster who knows climo and hurricane history does a better job than the models. Sometimes the models are wonderful, sometimes they are crappy but the one commonality is the Hurricane brings the possibility of death and destruction with it as it moves towards landfall. And, a long tracking Hurricane such as Donna makes landfall many times and takes the trouble from the tropics all the way up the Mid Atlantic into NY and beyond. Let's hope this year is not a Sandy sort of year as there are already many parallels to 2012 weather wise. Again it's hard to remember that far back but Hurricane Sandy slammed into Cuba and from their perspective it was their storm not New York and New Jersey's storm.  You don't need to speak Spanish to understand the story shown below in the video after Hurricane Sandy hit Cuba showing people up in NY a preview of what they were to expect. 

Back to the Florida Keys..

In my mind Hurricane Donna and Hurricane Betsy were Miami hurricanes yet they just grazed by Miami toppling tall pines trees and depositing sand all over Collins Avenue or smashing out plate glass windows in resorts that once had beautiful ocean views. But what I do remember most is that Hurricane Donna was a slow mover that rattled Miami's nerves as the end game seemed as uncertain as did Hurricane Irma's end game. It's nice to say that the NHC nailed the forecast with Hurricane Irma but did they really? Yes and no is the answer as they nailed it would impact South Florida but the "Cone" got pulled back and forth by several hundred miles before we knew 100% who was getting the eye of Irma. And, trust me the EYE is the part that makes the difference as most of South Florida, West Florida and North Florida had impacts from Irma but no where was it as deadly and destructive as Cudjoe Key and Big Pine. And, by the way Big Pine Key is way bigger and more densely populated than Long Key where the 1935 Hurricane made landfall on what was basically a tent city where temporary workers were given jobs by FDR after camping out in DC begging for jobs. So, yeah score one for FDR he gave them jobs in Paradise but Paradise can turn really ugly when a hurricane or a volcano blows it's top. I'd still rather deal directly with a Major Hurricane than a Volcano and a lava flow crunching down and obliterating my house and red, shiny mustang convertible.

The book I read yesterday that I picked up in one of the Florida Key's best book stores was riveting in it's old school description of the approach of a hurricane as it was jam packed with great detail on Florida Keys history. Jam packed as in old history as in does anyone in Florida even remember buying Sea Grape Jam? Does anyone remember what Bud and Mary's looked like back when? Does anyone remember when the Keys were quiet and traffic on the Overseas Highway wasn't the way it is now? Sea Grape Jam or Jelly is what Scuppernong Jam is to people in North Carolina. It's a local delicacy you take back to the relatives who live Up North. May I suggest next time you decide to go to the Islamorada Fish House or any Fish Restaurant down in the Keys you stop at Hooked on Books Mile Marker 81.9 and browse the racks and sit a spell and look through the books and decide which one you want to buy. Spoiler Alert you will want to buy MANY of them but many are on the Used racks for half price or even a dollar. I picked up a signed autograph book by James W. Hall who was my Literature Professor at FIU teaching classes on a Graduate Level on American Literature. Once upon the time before AOL and the Internet my grammar was way better ;)

http://www.hookedonbooksfloridakeys.com

There are some interesting stories in the book.

Take Craig Key for instance.

Craig Key was a town on a highway.

The Overseas Highway

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Craig_Key

It's a small spot on the map.

It's shown below by the red dot.

Up close it's shown below.

No matter how good our models are and how great our forecast is the one thing you can count on is that a hurricane, especially a Major Hurricane, slams into a small island with the fury of Atomic Bombs, and the slamming into it goes on for however long it takes for the hurricane to move on. Sometimes a hurricane slows down and crawls and other times it moves fast like Hurricane Andrew. Either way it leaves behind a trail of broken dreams, destroyed homes, destroyed lives and sometimes a high death toll. Whether the hurricane causes flooding as we saw in Houston or it sand blasts an island the way Maria did, it's a natural disaster that we try to forecast and explain to the public beseeching people to follow evacuation orders and we hope for the best, pray like we never prayed and try somehow to make it through the night while listening to the howling of the wind. We hunker down and in that dark, scary, vitally alive night no one really cares whether the EURO was right or the GFS scored a quirky win. Maybe far away in some academic environment students are debating the models still from the safety of their dorm room in another part of the country and on message boards somewhere someone will try and defend the GFS or tout how good the EURO was with this hurricane vs the last one. But trust me in the dark of the night listening to the wind you pray to survive and pray you have a business to go to work to in the morning; no one gives a rat's ass about which model was right or wrong in the middle of a Major Hurricane.

Turn your speaker up all the way.

Imagine that sound for 2 or 3 hours.

Imagine that sound while the house is shaking.

Imagine that house while worrying there is flooding.

Just imagine.

Our models are better.

Our satellites are clearer.

Radar is better.

But....

A hurricane is still a hurricane in the end.

We slice and dice them.

We study them.

It's academic to some of us... 

..a passion for chasers.

We take the data.

We study the data.

But the Hurricanes still howl in the night.

From far away they are beautiful.

Our new tools are awesome.

Whether the Euro was right.

Whether the EURO was wrong.

The end result is the same.

Destruction and death.

So during these quiet days of June when the EPAC is busy and the Atlantic is not it's a good time to think on what you will need to get through the 2018 Hurricane Season. Yes, there is talk of El Nino and there is talk of cool water near Africa. We have to worry on those storms that weakly make their way across the Atlantic battling shear and dry air who sometimes find a spot close in to become a Category 4 or Category 5 Hurricane. And, in a year like this it's important to remember over and over what starts in the tropics doesn't always stay in the tropics and the Mid Atlantic and the East Coast could be in trouble come September or October. We have come a long way from old black and white news reels with eerie science fiction sound effects but whether we watch old black and white news reels or color video the wind howls, the rain falls down endlessly as sheets of wind carry your neighbors roof one tile at a time down the street. 

There are some great books out there on hurricanes, some wild websites and some awesome old news papers online. Read through them, look at the pictures and remember in the end it's not about the models but about the hurricane. If the NHC puts up watches and warnings for your area do what they tell you to do like your life depends on it. Trust me ...your life does depend on it.

https://www.floridamemory.com/blog/tag/hurricanes/

Good sites to follow are:

www.spaghettimodels.com

www.hurricanecity.com

https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/news/historical-hurricanes/ Picture below from this site.

That's a lot of landfalling hurricanes along the East Coast.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... Some incredible books at that bookstore. Call them, order a few .... look online. Learn from the past because the past always repeats in some ways every day, every year ... every Hurricane Season.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2018/06/tropics-sunday-gfs-hot-euro-not-or.html a good shorter read that may make you think on your priorities.

Miami Hurricane History. Learn From History. Prepare Now. Make Plans Be #HurricaneStrong. How 2017 Could Be Like 1979 or 1926? ALL of Florida in Play This Hurricane Season As Well as Neighbors in Our Other States in Hurricane Country.

Today is July 7th and we are tracking a Tropical Depression that has stubbornly refused to die but all tropical systems have their own day in the sun and as I have said before all storms run out of rain eventually. July tropical systems are rare and yet they happen often though one forming out in the Atlantic before the Islands is pretty rare. West bound African Waves in July are usually followed by the die hard trackers and ignored by the long time meteorologists who know July is often too early for African Waves to form into anything that requires designation. In 1926 July was not too early and an early Hurricane formed from an African wave in what would go on to be a historic and memorable hurricane season.

The busy 1926 Hurricane Season is shown above.

Remember it began in July with a west bound tropical wave.

Sadly for Miami in 1926 there were more storms to follow.

A lot to say today even though nothing is immediately important regarding any one hurricane or tropical system. It is worth noting that a cone has been posted by the NHC for a storm that is forecast to fade away. That said some models do show some part of it coming back stronger later down the road. Only time will tell what happened with TD4 and the new wave that rolled off Africa that models are currently forecasting will develop into another named storm in July. Another post will be put up briefly to discuss TD4 and the one that follows that may get the name Don unless something not expected happens with TD4 or if the wave rolling off of Africa becomes another victim of Saharan Dust. Time will tell. Today I want to talk about some storms we can look at in the rear view mirror and we can learn from as history repeats especially if you live in the path of tropical trouble. And, Miami and most of Florida is always in the path of a potential storm and yet rarely gets a direct hit compared to say the Outer Banks in North Carolina. Miami is known as the Magic City and I truly hope that magic mojo we got going continues for a long time.

I'm a Miamian who was born and raised in Miami. My family has lived in Florida since the 1800s. I'm what you call a native born Floridian. I can also claim the title of being an official Conch as my ancestors were one of the earliest Jews to open up shop in Key West and were naturalized as "citizens of Key West" back before the "Turn of the Century" and I do mean the 1900s not the current century. They went through storms in Key West, Miami, the 1921 Hurricane in Tampa and many; so many it's hard to even name all the storms they lived through in Florida. My Uncle survived the 1926 Hurricane as a small child and talked often of stories you don't want to hear on a dark, moonless night with a strong breeze blowing. I know Miami and I know Hurricanes so that said... please read on and the take away message is to use the links posted at the bottom of this post to properly prepare for a Hurricane. And, this year with the new policies in place from the NHC you will have very early warning and I urge you IF warnings are posted for your piece of Florida Real Estate please take them seriously and act accordingly!

My goal this morning is to make people think and take this current hurricane season seriously. Yes ACE has been low and many believe TS Cindy should never been a "Tropical Storm" vs a "Subtropical" and it's easy to point out the A storm back that formed way before the season started... but don't ignore the obvious. We are tracking TD 4 that formed before 40 West in the first week of July from a viable CV Wave that came off of Africa in late June. June wasn't too soon this year and that should tell you something. If you live in Miami or New Orleans or Tampa or Charleston and do not have a hurricane plan for this coming year you obviously like to live by the seat of your pants and are an adrenaline junkie. Or you are totally living in denial and spending way too much time thinking on the August eclipse and not worrying on a busy Hurricane Season.

Many killer hurricane seasons were loaded with junk Tropical Storms that never amounted to much, but the pattern was there and the like a pinball machine broken that keeps automatically shooting balls out of the chute one or two big ones make it into the record books. Look at 1992 a relatively weak year all in all yet Andrew is forever remembered by the numbers 1992. Weak season or busy season what you need to wonder on is not the eclipse that can be plotted and waited for (clear skies permitting) is the hurricane season of 2017. Heck you can chase an eclipse in real time the way we chase storms.. changing plans with the weather. IF a Hurricane has your hometown written on it's sleeve you can't pick up your house and runaway. Though a really strong hurricane could pick up parts of your house and distribute parts of it into neighbors yards.

Do you have a plan for the Hurricane Season? If not.. make one. And make multiple options. What you would do for a Cat 1 or Cat 2 hurricane is NOT what you would do for a Cat 4 Hurricane. And what you would do for a slow moving Tropical Storm that will flood your low lying backyard is not what you would do for a Cat 4 Hurricane moving WNW at 18 MPH around a strong High Pressure Ridge. You can pray for a miracle that it will turn and make landfall upstate like Hurricane David did but sometimes like Hurricane Andrew they just keep coming at you like a buzz saw moving closer and closer until it tries to blow your house down. Surviving a hurricane is often either a matter of shear luck or having executed a well developed plan. Thankfully the NHC does all it can to give you the earliest possible warning of real tropical trouble descending on your beautiful tropical town.

Now let's illustrate this with some Hurricane History.

1979 Hurricane David creates long lines and panic in the Miami Area as a Killer Hurricane that was deadly in the Islands takes aim at South Florida. Miami hadn't had a hurricane in a long time and there was a lot of denial as well as many new residents in the Miami area. Spoiler Alert.. David turned away and did make landfall further upstate. Unfortunately for many Miami residents who got in their cars and drove in traffic jams out of Miami that took cheap, poorly made motel rooms up the state near where Hurricane David made landfall. Oops. Their homes were safe but often their motel rooms were wet and they were terrified in unfamiliar surroundings but hey they had homes to go home to ...so Miami got lucky.



In 1992 another hurricane took aim at Miami and half the population went into sheer panic mode (as no one really had to make hurricane plans in years) and the other half shrugged insistent it would turn away like David did in back in 1979. Miami, understand please, goes through long dry periods without landfalls that make the inhabitants sure there is some protective force field around our part of Florida that sticks out into the ocean daring a hurricane to visit. OBX in NC gets hurricanes much more than Miami does and rarely does Tampa get a direct hit. But in any given year a hurricane can show up like an unwanted relative on your doorstep.

David was a hurricane that people watched on the Nightly News slam into the Islands and created panic way in advance of it's actual watches and warnings. There's something about those storms that taste blood in the Islands that make people upstream wake up and so they should as they often go on to do it again. Cleo, Hugo, David are three such storms that people took seriously early on because of the fury it unleashed onto the Islands before continuing on towards the SE coast of America.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1935/3/track.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1992/ANDREW/track.gif

Then you have hurricanes like Andrew that seemingly pop up out of nowhere from struggling Tropical Storms that choose a bad time for the USA to pull it together. Sort of in the same way that the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane suddenly intensified from weak tropical storm status to landfall as a historic Category 5 a few days later. I suppose with our new satellite imagery we would have been tracking the Labor Day Hurricane as a weak Invest forecast to intensify to strong Tropical Storm with one or two models showing crazy scenarios that were discounted early on and trusted later. With our new warning system in place there would have been watches and warnings issued way before it actually intensified over the Gulfstream and those vets would have gotten out of Long Key before the storm surge moved in and took the rescue train that was running late out to sea.



Then we come to the 1926 Hurricane that actually hit Miami dead on as a Category 4 hurricane that created a storm surge that washed over Miami Beach before marching down Flagler Street in downtown Miami testing it's new Bayfront park before the park was even finished.

I want you to look at the 1926 Hurricane Season carefully. For one there is a strong parallel in that a hurricane formed before the Islands in July. It had a different track from Bret and TD4 but the early formation and the strong high makes it worth remembering.

In July a Hurricane took aim at the fairly young city of Miami, yet much like Hurricane David it moved on up the coast and brushed Miami knocking down trees that needed trimming and taking down some poorly built boom time construction with it. People laughed it off as the Winter Season tourists were far away and the early residents used to hard jobs in year round tropical heat went about picking up debris and making the Magic City beautiful again. It was called by locals a "tree trimmer" storm and as it moved away Miami seemed magically safe and sadly future warnings in September were taken with huge bags of salt so to speak. 

In September another storm warning was posted and Hurricane Flags were hoisted and Miami was warned to watch out for a West Indies Cyclone. Miami Weatherman Richard Gray ran about begging people to take note of the storm that was on it's way. Some took it seriously but they were mostly old timers who remembered stories about the few storms that made landfall in South Florida and the Florida Keys. Most of the newcomers in the new city had no clue what would follow that golden dawn in the morning that was said to be the color of burnished copper. The word "clueless" would be an understatement here and it's worth remembering Miami was barely 30 years old as a city with very little hurricane history to remember. 

Compare and contrast those tracks.

Why did I go long with a post about Miami Hurricanes this morning rather than going long on small but tenacious Tropical Depression 4 and the new wave off of Africa? Because I want this to be a stand alone post I can refer to somewhere down the road if needed. And, most importantly I want you to take this particular year seriously. If we get lucky the Magical City of Miami will not get visited by a Hurricane. But, you can't rely on luck even if you can kiss the dice and wish for it often. You can prepare for a Hurricane vs say an Earthquake. Hurricanes happen but they don't JUST HAPPEN you have time to PREPARE and there are numerous sites online where you can find information relevant to your particular life.

Do you have more than one child in diapers? You need to stock up now when you see a sale and not use them until after the season is over in October or November? Buy LOTS of Baby Wipes both for use on the baby and for use when your water is questionable to use and you need to clean up without using up your treasure chest of water that you hopefully are putting away in case you get a visit from a West Indies Cyclone as they used to call them. And, if you get a visitor from the Bahamas lots of luck.

Do you take medicine on a regular basis? Get an extra new inhaler if you have asthma. Do you take Diabetes or Blood Pressure medication? Stock up on Over the Counter Allergy meds as trust me you will need them after the storm as the clean up has it's own unique problems. Buy lots of kleenex and paper products, you can be ecologically minded after the storm. If the storm moves on donate them to a homeless shelter that will use them.

Do you have pets? Do you have a plan? Buy extra pet food especially if you have a large dog..

Do you have elderly members of the family that need to be taken into consideration? Do you live near the beautiful bay or out in the far reaches of the suburbs?

Use these links please! Save them, refer to them and hopefully you will not need to use them.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/prepare/ready.php
http://www.publix.com/pages/publix-storm-basics
http://wsvn.com/news/be-ready-how-to-prepare-for-a-storm/

Please go to those sites, read the information as Hurricanes are one of the few natural disasters you can try and prepare for and as I said make contingent plans based on needing to evacuate from the proverbial BIG ONE vs a Category 1 Hurricane you will easily ride out safely IF you are prepared and knowledgeable in advance.

October Hurricanes that hit Miami from the SW are another sort of storm we will discuss later in September as this season is hot to trot and running a month ahead of track at least.

1979 had strong tropical waves early on...

...much like this year.

While TD 4 is still a work in process... 

This chart below will be filled in by October.

 Between now and then you can prepare for the worst.

Pray for the best, but prepare for the worst.

And I say pray vs "hope" as I know hurricanes.

And I know Miami History.

I love Miami.

Nowhere like it... 

But sometimes those beautiful breezes from Biscayne Bay..

...can blow a strong, steady wind.

And Hurricane Flags are hoisted.

And watches are posted.

And cones are put out by the NHC.

Don't say I didn't warn ya.. 

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter.

Follow me on Twitter for updates in real time.

Check out #HurricaneStrong on Twitter or online.

And understand this year is said to be by many in the know similar to the year 1979. Let's hope it's not like 1926 that began in July with an Atlantic named storm before the Islands.

1st Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO Forms in the Atlantic From 92L. 93L Struggling to Find It's Core.. Watches, Warnings and Thoughts on Early Tropical Warnings. Example Labor Day 1935 Hurricane!

Today is a historic day in tropical meteorology as the first ever "potential tropical cyclone formation alert" has been issued complete with watches and warnings for a storm that has not formed yet. Mind you we have been tracking Invest 92L since it first rolled off of Africa filled with potential and signs of good spin. Eventually it became an early June Invest and soon it should become a Tropical Storm most likely named Bret. Unless 93L does something dramatic over night Potential Tropical Cyclone 2 most likely will get the name Bret. The reason for this new move on the part of the NHC is to be able to give better lead time in warnings for cyclones forecast to develop and affect an area that currently can be given a heads up so they can properly prepare. Understand no one is expecting this storm to become Cleo or Camille, but despite it's small size and low latitude it comes under the designation of Tropical Cyclone when the winds close off and the wind speed is at the appropriate level. Not to make a joke, but to be totally honest, size does not matter when forecasting tropical cyclones. It is what it is and it now it has a historic asterisk attached to it no matter where it goes and how long it lives. All firsts are memorable they say..

Note there are a multitude of products shown above.

Below is one of the nicer new features.

Note those are the earliest possible times of arrival.

It may not look like much... 

...don't let size confuse you.

It has spin.

It has some convection.

Most important... model support.

Compact small storm.

Consistent rotation.

Keep watching.

Clearly recognizable with a red dot in the center.

And note Grenada is the city to watch above.

In truth I'd say Trinidad and Tobago.

But lots of islands in the path.

Map from www.hurricanecity.com

Watches and warnings have been posted.

Great interactive map above... 

So check it out at the link below.

Good move by the NHC.

Shows high confidence in their models.

Note models consistently stuck with 92L...

Why you ask 92L vs 93L

Being small 92L aka Potential Tropical Cyclone 2 is barely visible on the loop above. 93L looks big, bright, beautiful and then........whoops it collapses again. This has been an ongoing problem in the Caribbean as the X the NHC posts is to the west of the ongoing flare ups of convection. It's easy to say shear is pushing the convection away but that's really not the whole story. There are possibly two centers competing or it's just basically a large, oozy, mess of low pressure and convection with potential down the tropical road.

This colorful, convective ballet is seen above.

More like hide and seek than pin the tail on the tropical cyclone.

Recon was cancelled. Rescheduled for tomorrow . . . 

And 92L gliding along at 7.5 N steals the historic show.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/182056.shtml

The link above shows the discussion link for PTC2 (as I will call it for now) and at this time forecasts it to be a Tropical Storm with 50 MPH down the road. It will move between West and WNW and affect the islands as indicated in the graphic package shown above. Needs to gain latitude and pull a bit to the North of 7.5 N but let's give it some time to do it's thing. It's not even at 55 West yet when recon usually goes in to take a look for themselves.

As for 93L it's a matter of watch and wait. The image from HurricaneCity shows both models on the map on their main page. There are also links there you can use to show actual ocean and atmospheric data on that map. 

Again note how the X on the NHC main page is not under the convective cluster to the East of the X marks the spot. Until the convection aligns with the X or the X is moved under the convection and it is able to consistently maintain itself it's chances will be lowered down some or hold at 70% even though earlier today they were at 90%. As always weather is fluid and conditions do not always pan out as forecast or expected. Sorry Charlie or maybe Cindy down the road.

Why is the NHC making this change? Let's give a good example. Take a place like Key West which is halfway between Florida and Cuba and only has one road in and one road out. If the forecasters at the NHC see a developing tropical wave moving WNW towards the Florida Keys and they believe it will go through rapid development but that rapid development is a good 24 hours away however the storm is only 2 days away from a possible landfall. Old rules would have held a watch or warning until a system has formed and it takes a few days to evacuate Key West properly. This may seem an unlikely system but if you consider the 1935 Labor Day Storm that went from Tropical Storm status to Category 5 status in a short period of time and you had that storm occur today.... the NHC would be able to issue a Potential Tropical Storm Alert with a complete package containing advisories. 

There were no models nor were there satellite loops in 1935. The infamous Labor Day Hurricane was not even noticed as anything beyond a bit of stormy weather out near the Bahamas. Then BOOM fast it intensified close to land. Look at the point in the above map where it became a strong Hurricane as it moved towards the Florida Keys. It's one example, there are many. And in the landlocked Gulf of Mexico where a storm often forms close to land it forms too close to adequately evacuate barrier island beaches as the storm forms within the evacuation window. Now days the NHC could issue a Potential Tropical Cyclone Alert with watches and warnings helping to alert and save lives in low lying areas. 

So it's an excellent idea in theory and only after this season will we see how it really works and how it may need to be tweaked. There is the possibility that storms do not form and people begin to ignore the product yet I prefer to err on the side of giving early warning to save lives vs worrying on what might happen if a storm does not form. The models these days have been very consistent in early detection of tropical entities. Over two weeks ago the models began to sniff out low pressures in the GOM and they were on the money. The original discussion called for a storm on Monday or Tuesday and we are still within that time frame. We are getting better and better, however it's not a perfect science. 

We are still watching the models and the models are coming together today on a target in the Northern GOM. That could change tomorrow, but this may develop and hang around the GOM trapped under High Pressure looking for a place to make landfall. Large systems take longer to come together and until recently this has been a huge Low Pressure Trough so give it some time and relax. The NHC is on top of things. And right now that "thing" is the once strong wave riding low across the Atlantic on it's way towards islands already warned of it's arrival before it's birth. This is akin to naming a baby after knowing the sex early on in a pregnancy. I have a friend who announced her daughter was giving birth to Grace a few years back early on in the pregnancy. Years ago people waited until the baby was born to find out what the sex was going to be. Now days people put up online announcements complete with sonograms announcing the name along with the sex along with the estimated arrival time. Welcome to 2017, it's an wonderful world!

I'll be back tomorrow with more information. If for any reason either area is upgraded I will update the blog at the top. Til then, enjoy what's left of Father's Day and check back often. Follow me on Twitter for faster news and sharing forecasting ideas from other smart, meteorological minds ;)

Besos BobbiStorm

@BobbiStorm on Facebook

Ps Bottom right on Spaghetti Models there is a scroll of Tweets that are often (but not always) relevant to the weather and usually tropical weather. www.spaghettimodels.com. 

This is my local beach in NC as it's the one closest to where I live part of the year. We go to other beaches but it's beautiful and breezy and the water is too cold for me to swim in but I'm more a picture taker and a walker than a swimmer. I can swim in a pool, I love to stare at the beach.

N view from the pier.

Go Pack.. NC State ;)

Looking towards the pier below.

And strolling along on the beach.

Happy people. Good times.

Living at the beach....

...you learn to enjoy the good times.

Hurricanes Happen...

Hurricane Irene at Wrightsville Beach...

...enjoy those quiet days when you can.

And then go watch the waves before a Hurricane.

NHC Pulls Plug. Good Weekend to Ignore Politics and Get Out and Have Some fun. Hurricane History Yankee Hurricane 1935 Landfall Miami Beach. Election Weather? Obsessing on the Election?

Just a heads up that the yellow dot is gone.

Nothing TROPICAL forming in the Atlantic.

There is something out there but it's not tropical.

There's actually a lot going on in the Atlantic.

But it's not coming towards us.

It all depends on your priorities.

A good discussion on the Atlantic.

http://dabuh.com/

He does surf reports, weather reports.

@DaDaBuh 

Sometimes he puts up good music ;)

But if you are not a ship at sea or a surfer.

It's quiet times across most of the country.

As I said the other day.

This is the In Between Time...

World Series are over.

Impressive Chicago Cubs win..

Election is on Tuesday..

We don't know who is gonna win.

No winter yet. 

No snow.

Even the rain has stayed away from most places.

If you are wondering on Election Day Weather...

So far pretty decent weather to vote if you haven't done so already.

I'll update this on Sunday.

Not trusting the short term forecast lately.

"They" insisted the rain would fall over night.

You know like Camelot

(Google it, song line)

But front moved slower.

It's raining though the sun is peaking out now.

Who do you believe?

The polls?

MSNBC? FOX? CNN?

Buzz Feed?

Facebook News (hahaha)

Accuweather vs The Weather Channel?

Starbucks or Dunkin Donuts.

(Caribou Coffee is really good)

Love their logo but I digress

Seems the weather people disagree less...

..than those running for elections.

For example check out discussion on La Nina.

Just type in La Nina Forecasts.

This is what I found:

A "No-Show" that  may "Bring Colder Weather"

Right. Seems a lot of uncertainty.

And if you think quirky weather only happens these days.

Let's go back to 1935. 

The year famous for the Labor Day Hurricane.

A hurricane bound for the Carolinas turned South.

Then sort of SW then WSW towards Miami.

No I'm not talking about Hurricane Betsy.

But the Yankee Clipper Hurricane.

Started in the Atlantic.

Ended up in the Gulf of Mexico.

Took an odd track.

Growing up it was referred to as the Yankee Hurricane.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1935_Yankee_hurricane

http://www.keyshistory.org/35-hurr-Douglas.html

So when you hear people say "unprecedented" 

Take it with a grain of salt.

Bottom Line.

If you aren't in an impacted area this weekend.

Go out and have some fun.

Because have to be honest.

Winter is coming so make hay while the sun shines ;)

Find a beach....

... Drive up to the mountains if you got em.

Drive out to the Lake.

No lake, no beach no mountains?

Hmmm Try a Park?

Get out and about and enjoy life.

This is the in between time...

..so in the mean time go have some fun!

Besos BobbiStorm

Follow me @bobbistorm on Twitter 

Ps In case you are wondering on election history.. 

A look back at 1928.

Or look back at 1896.

An election many say people today should remember.

If you like the other one better... 

You can obsess on the elections or..

Get out and have some fun.

Pretty sure you'll be watching news next week.

So get out and have fun while you can!