Will a Major Hurricane Hit the Miami Broward WPB Area This Year? I Hope Not... But it Could They Are Overdue for the EYE of a Hurricane.

 

This is a map made by Brian McNoldy

https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy

He's excellent to follow.

If you live in South Florida....

...or anywhere during the Hurricane Season.

While things are quiet and not much is going on I'm trying to put links to sites to use and people to follow on social media who are excellent sources of reliable information. In his case, he is prone to unique, original ways of presenting valuable material that helps you understand better some of the finer points of a particular situation be it a current set up or historical information.   If you were playing a paint online game you'd be trying to figure out what color line to draw across the Miami to West Palm Beach metropolitan area and that's concerning as that area is overdue for such a hurricane.  Many in Miami and the Ft. Lauderdale area would argue that and point to all the trees down and their roof damage from Hurricane Irma in 2017 and that's because they fail to remember they did not get the EYE of Irma nor the brunt of it's power, they had all that damage from a brush with Irma that made landfall in the Florida Keys but due to it's immense size delivered a wicked punch to North Miami Beach, Walnut Creek and other places far to the North and East of where Irma made landfall. A similar smaller storm would not have impacted the Miami area if it moved quickly through Marathon in the Florida Keys so remember with hurricanes not only strength but size matters! 

Also what is worth remembering is that the general Miami area was in the Cone often for both Irma and Dorian and Matthew scared Miamians greatly even if the cone showed it could stay offshore. The NHC did a good job with those hurricanes and they did veer away from a visit to Miami. This is a very DANGEROUS set up as what happens after these sort of brushes with danger is that people begin to believe Miami is safe and all the hurricanes will veer way from the coast as Dorian and Matthew did but many such as the 1926 and 1928 Hurricanes did not, nor did Betsy, Katrina nor Andrew that made a due West beeline for Miami and never took the road that David did in 1979 when it took aim at Miami and then veered up the coast. Why is this important? I knew many people in Miami during Andrew that refused to believe that Andrew would not do what David did and it would go somewhere else. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1928_Okeechobee_hurricane

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_David similar but made landfall along the N Central coastline.

Miami is a city that always has new people who have moved into the area and never experienced a Hurricane. Old times tell them about Donna and Betsy and Andrew and they think they will be fine, they will not be if a Major Hurricane makes landfall at Hollywood Beach or Aventura just North of Miami but all part of the same metropolitan area demographically and otherwise. Also we have a huge transitory population of people who are they college students or employed in the HUGE hotels and restaurant business that makes up a giant slice of the Miami economy!

Sadly Andrew taught me that the worst case scenario can and does happen. For years I kept this poster in my living room as a reminder that the worst case scenario can play out and a major hurricane can and will make a landfall in your living room if you live in Florida long enough.  Note that also goes for Savannah, Jacksonville and Tampa! 

Orange ... high pressure. 

H for Huge High.

A nice wave over Africa... 

There's online chatter on something in 10 days or so...

.. maybe down in the Caribbean headed North.

Or by the Yucatan.... or out in the Atlantic.

Models keep showing long term possibilities.

But nothing expected to form for the next 5 days.

Use this time wisely for Hurricane Preparation.

This IS Hurricane Season.

June Hurricanes have happened making landfall...

... up from the Carib towards Florida.

Currently the huge High Pressure is in place, so use this time wisely. As I said in a previous blog, my friend Sharon was sure we would get a hurricane in the very dead summer of 1992 when the first named storm didn't show up until Mid August named Andrew. Sharon rinsed out bottles of Publix Soda and filled them up with tap water and stored them away and bought inexpensive bottled water when on sale. When Andrew changed course for Miami, as she thought it would do as she didn't trust that weak cold front in August, she had close to 80 bottles of water stored in her garage to use for drinking or washing. After Hurricane Andrew on Miami Beach far from the eye but getting strong impressive winds, we had no water for a long time and we had no electric even longer and we had no cable to watch TWC until late November. 

Be like Sharon, don't be that guy at Publix buying perishable deli and ice cream because you are sure this is just a big scare and the next big Major Hurricane aiming for Miami will turn away and crash into South Carolina as Matthew did......  Prepare now! Buy canned food, water, non-perishable food and stock up on your medications. Don't be that person left at Publix who went too late and is standing at the empty aisles staring at cans of oysters and sardines. 

Thanks for your patience while I was on vacation in Miami visiting my family and attending a wedding for Sharon's son. It was a long road trip after a few days in Charlotte for business before the trip to Miami, a stop on the way back in Savannah and I'm finally back in Raleigh. I learned years back from friends of mine who worked at the NHC that the best time to usually take a vacation is actually early June, before the season ramps up :) Learn from the best ... 

I should be updating every day from now on so follow me as we cruise into the height of the Hurricane Season when SAL begins to let go of his dusty hold on the Atlantic and the Huge High Pressure suddenly fades away and yellow circles pop up South of Cuba or off the coast of Florida in the Bahamas and as always near the Yucatan. 

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps. A dirty little secret is that Miami Beach was trashed by Hurricane Andrew, all the street signs, store awnings and often AC units on condos crashed to the ground below. Massive Ficus Trees were uprooted with most of the yard, pine trees on Pine Tree Drive fell onto homes. My neighbors roof on Flamingo Drive took flight and landed in tact in the back yard of a house on Pine Tree Drive near 41st Street. Bits and pieces of plastic from the Dry Cleaners, the Used Bookstore and Epicure then on Arthur Godfrey Road landed all across my parent's house on 37th and Royal Palm Avenue. My neighbor next door, a photographer who was working for Newsweek got back from covering Homestead and asked what happened on Miami Beach as it wasn't mentioned in the news. As Andrew approached Miami, just before it made that itsy bitsy dip to the South that saved most of downtown Miami... it's approaching wind and wild surf took aim on Miami Beach. I'm grateful that despite all that wild damage (we had no Traffic Lights on 41st Street for half a year, they all were gone with the wind) we were spared the horrific damage the eye did in Homestead. So while thinking on all the debris you had from Irma remember it made landfall near Big Pine Key NOT in Miami nor Hollywood Florida! Prepare now! Use this "quiet" time wisely!!

All the damage in the old blog below was from Miami Beach. They hired people fast to clean it up and laid low and tried to stay out of the news and to get back up and running for the 1992/93 Tourist Season. They were not as lucky in 1926... but that's another blog.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2012/08/hurricane-andrew-look-back-from-miami.html

Yes most buildings were "fine" but everything else went whoosh with the wind... and that beautiful Polynesian style roof some friend of mine had... small square houses do best in a hurricane in Florida... no power for weeks, no cable for months... debris sat until late October after the Andrew Hurricane.

UPDATED 11 PM... 5 Day Cone Extended UP through NC, SC, GA...Cat 5 Hurricane IRMA Makes Move Towards PR then Takes on FL. People Evacuate or Hunker Down. Then Where Does She Go. 3 Hurricanes in Atlantic Jose Following Irma... Katia Running Away SW Towards Pacific...

11 PM

Forecast points still slide along the coast of Florida.

No way of knowing for sure yet if it makes landfall.

Either way the HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL.

When we say "landfall" we mean the center of the eye.

The part of FL that sticks out the most... in danger. 

Then it moves up towards Savannah.

Maybe Brunswick, Georgia area.

I can promise you this cone will change again.

Subtle changes but change it will.

NRL Map ... Huge Area.

Wind probabilities now go up through DC.

This is a story bigger than Florida.

I love Florida.

I'm a Florida girl.......

...living in Carolina.

This storm impacts both my homes.

My family there and friends here.

I have kids on stuck on the Florida Turnpike.

I have kids in Orlando tonight.

I have kids in Hollywood and Walnut Creek.

Broward County.

Here in Raleigh we have our own view of Irma.

Again this is aiming at Florida.

But it's so much bigger than Florida.

Irma could affect the whole East Coast.

Sooooooo... 

Being honest this is huge for me.

Huge for many.

Hugely impacts I-95 cities.

All the way possibly up through DC.

Tomorrow maybe further.

Governor of NORTH Carolina..

issuing State of Emergency in the morning.

See wind probs below.

Discussion highlights from NHC.

Keeping the cone the same.

Models pulling East... 

...but the aren't sold on that yet.

Waiting on over night models.

And the "short wave" to develop.

Add in the final coordinates from NHC 

It's a 5 day forecast.

It can change.

So you are wondering where it is at 110 MPH.

If you put those cords into Google Search.

Near Savannah, Georgia.

That's not a given but a forecast.

Forecasts change.

And there's Irma below.

Probably a whole generation of girls named Irma soon.

Happens. Lots of Andrews born in the early 90s.

Irma's moving at a steady clip.

Note the size below of Irma.

Look at the size of Irma.

Wider than the State of Florida.

This should give you a better perspective of the concerns on the size and intensity of Irma. Should Irma stay off shore of South Florida part of it will cover Florida with Tropical Storm force winds and unknown magnitude hurricane force winds. I say unknown because until we see it's track we won't know if Davie gets Cat 3 force winds or if it gets Cat 2 or if WPB gets the eye and Wellington gets Category 4 or 3. It's too far away still and unknown. What we know is all of Florida can possibly get close to Hurricane force winds anywhere from 75 MPH to Category 5. You thought in 2017 we'd know for sure right? Hey, getting closer. Hey we know it's coming; that's more than most people knew in 1926 when a Category 4 Hurricane came into South Florida moving WNW. SLAMMED IN... few had real warning or an understanding of what a hurricane was... so we at least we know that. We can watch it on our phones travel across the Caribbean. We can watch the radar in San Juan. We have warning to prepare, to board up or to hit the road. The NHC is doing the best it can really. So am I and many of my friends who blog, post and own websites. We are all trying to educate, warn and make you feel you understand what is going on better. For many who have been through a life altering hurricane they feel the need to know details. Knowledge is power. I hope I have given you some extra knowledge tonight and tomorrow I'll write more on models that came in over night and the new track with it's new cone and I'll give you  more my thoughts on what I really think is most likely to happen. Different possibilities and hopefully some ideas that are helpful to get you though the storm safely.

Take care... Sweet Tropical Dreams, BobbiStorm... or really good morning if you read this before I wake up and post again. Some images of Irma in the Islands below and Florida getting closer every day. 

What an eye..

Irma hovering just ENE of PR.

Moving WNW at 16 MPH.

As close as it gets.

Close up of that graphic.

The area North of Miami

From WPB to the Cape..

Most likely to get the eye.

That can and will change.

This is still days out.

But as of today...

In the cross hairs of Irma.

Another link you can use that loops.
Shows Irma touching FL coast.
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

I want to explain something.

It's confusing.

There are 2 "cones" put out by NHC.

Side by side.

One is TS winds. Other is CENTER of IRMA

For some reason this is confusing to people looking at graphics. I keep getting people asking me when the storm is coming as they see two different images. People keep saying different things. The NHC in their official cone tracks the EYE...the center of the storm. They tell you to look at the whole cone, however they show the forecast points. Monday at 2 PM they show Irma just off shore Savannah as of the 5 pm forecast package today. On the right that's the official cone. On the left is the TS winds earliest possible arrival of winds. That same area would be getting sustained Tropical Storm force winds by Sunday way in advance of the Hurricane Force winds. Trust me there is a difference. The reason they put out this product on the left is to tell you the time when you should be totally hunkered down safely inside not venturing out for one last run out in search of donuts and coffee. It's the time when you should be INSIDE and expecting Irma to begin. That doesn't include strong squalls that may have hurricane force gusts bringing down a tree on your patio or the neighbors pine tree snapping from a strong gust above 100 MPH. So keep that in mind That's your guide to be home, in a well boarded up house if you did not evacuate. 

I have several kids in Miami staying in homes with shutters not in evacuation areas but in Broward County and I have several kids on the road North bound. Big family, multiple arrangements. It's going to be a hard time no matter how you cut it. Facing IRMA in South Florida or WPB or VERO BEACH will not be easy. Being in the Carolinas or North Florida being chased by Irma unable to return back to Miami due to severe damage and roads closed will not be pretty either. It's a decision each adult child has to make for themselves. Once years ago we went to my brothers, and two kids said they were staying at a friend nearby in a safe house with shutters. I forgot something important. My brother and I went back and there were several kids sitting with candles in my back family room and I threatened to call the police to make them leave. Being a single mother you often need back up. Police came... told them to listen to their mother. I kid you not and had to leave because there was a tornado down the block. Never easy being a parent. You got to do what you got to do. But, when you are a parent with grown kids they will do what they will do. And, you pray a lot... 

IF Irma moves over Hispaniola in ANY WAY.. even staying North or NE of the coast it could in some small way disrupt it's circulation enough to knock it down. If not... only going to get bigger. With every eye wall replacement cycle it grows a bit in size, the eye gets bigger not smaller and then it hits the very warm, hot waters of the Bahamas. Approaching South Florida from ESE moving WNW. The winds could actually go down but the size (width) could grow making hurricane force winds go out further from the eye than they are now. We have to wait and see this happens or doesn't happen in real time. 

After it begins to turn North after a forecast short wave erodes the High Pressure to the North and it becomes a problem for Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina. Wind probabilities already go North into Richmond, Virginia. That could change, but it's been a pretty set track so far and so far Irma has been hitting it's forecast points so seems the NHC has a good handle on Irma. The updated advisory below gives information and shows it battering the Virgin Islands and moving on to Puerto Rico.

5 PM

18.7 N  64.1 W

WNW at 16 MPH

WINDS: 185 MPH....

Irma in all her glory.

Furious looking Cane.

Dangerous Hurricane 

3 Hurricanes in the Atlantic.

Katia in GOM

Center Stage IRMA

Further East Jose

Another view.

Water Vapor Loop.

Wind Probabilities mentioned above.

Discussion below.

Please read explains the models.

Forecast wind speed over the next 120 Hours.

Models

You can see all the models show this.

They all curve it North.

This happens often.

I took enough classes in meteorology in college to tell you the answer you put on the test is that "hurricanes want to go poleward" and if you say "they go where they want to go" you better go into botany or geology cause you'll do better with rocks that don't move around as much as hurricanes. When it sees an opening it will take it. The ONLY thing that could change this scenario in any way is if a high pressure ridge builds in stronger than expected and the short wave trough expected to weaken the ridge doesn't show up for the party. Katia is way West of Irma moistening up the environment there. Jose is following along behind, sort of docile but a hurricane so at some point it has it's own day in the sun. For now I'm not going to talk about them beyond saying a summary.

Katia seems afraid of Irma and is forecast to go SW to the Pacific. Okay it was nice having you in the GOM seems some prayers were answered there. Jose seems to want to go where Irma has gone. Perhaps it will go out to sea or clip the Outer Banks. Too far out to sea for now but only adds to a sense of misery to continue pointing out we are knee deep into the Hurricane Season. In theory Jose will suffer being in Irma's wake and could wobble, bobble or make loops in the Atlantic. Its too far past the time frame and not important now. Other than to know... there are 3 hurricanes actively in the Atlantic. When the hurricane season gets busy... it rolls.

That's what they said.

Now I want to show you some hurricane history.

Below you will see hurricanes that are similar ...

..to Irma.

Not always in intensity or size.

But in the approach to FL and the SE.

Last Year.. Matthew.

Ignore the Caribbean part ..

Approach up the coast.

I do think Irma will come closer to Florida.

At this point...

...things could change Irma could trace Matthew's track.

Floyd. 

Turned Just off shore before Florida.

We couldn't believe it would.

NHC nailed it.

Floyd turned.

Irma may not turn as fast.

Hurricane David.

A killer in the Islands.

VERY SIMILAR TRACK

Irma forecast not to go over Hispaniola.

Cut NNW and missed Miami ..

Miami was on the SW side.

Moved inland further up the coast.

NRL map is below.

Good map 

I drew this map earlier today.

Before the 5 PM.

Just wondering where Irma goes.

Irma below......

Irma staring at Katia.

You'd run away too...
if she was looking at you.

And people are trying to get out South Florida.

A mass migration North is on the way.

Anyway out of town.

Some are staying.

Some left.

Some are leaving.

Pray for all now please.

What would you do? 

Would you stay or would you go?

God speed to everyone in her path.

Or those seeking safety on the road!

I'll update in real time tonight.

Stay tuned.

Stay safe.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

PS...Listen to the audio. Hurricane David 1979

It was a Cat 5 Killer in the Islands.

Not as strong approaching Miami

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_David

Part of life in Florida.

You go decades with no hurricanes.

Then there's a hurricane warning.

And you got to do what you got to do...

..to survive.

Miami Hurricane History. Learn From History. Prepare Now. Make Plans Be #HurricaneStrong. How 2017 Could Be Like 1979 or 1926? ALL of Florida in Play This Hurricane Season As Well as Neighbors in Our Other States in Hurricane Country.

Today is July 7th and we are tracking a Tropical Depression that has stubbornly refused to die but all tropical systems have their own day in the sun and as I have said before all storms run out of rain eventually. July tropical systems are rare and yet they happen often though one forming out in the Atlantic before the Islands is pretty rare. West bound African Waves in July are usually followed by the die hard trackers and ignored by the long time meteorologists who know July is often too early for African Waves to form into anything that requires designation. In 1926 July was not too early and an early Hurricane formed from an African wave in what would go on to be a historic and memorable hurricane season.

The busy 1926 Hurricane Season is shown above.

Remember it began in July with a west bound tropical wave.

Sadly for Miami in 1926 there were more storms to follow.

A lot to say today even though nothing is immediately important regarding any one hurricane or tropical system. It is worth noting that a cone has been posted by the NHC for a storm that is forecast to fade away. That said some models do show some part of it coming back stronger later down the road. Only time will tell what happened with TD4 and the new wave that rolled off Africa that models are currently forecasting will develop into another named storm in July. Another post will be put up briefly to discuss TD4 and the one that follows that may get the name Don unless something not expected happens with TD4 or if the wave rolling off of Africa becomes another victim of Saharan Dust. Time will tell. Today I want to talk about some storms we can look at in the rear view mirror and we can learn from as history repeats especially if you live in the path of tropical trouble. And, Miami and most of Florida is always in the path of a potential storm and yet rarely gets a direct hit compared to say the Outer Banks in North Carolina. Miami is known as the Magic City and I truly hope that magic mojo we got going continues for a long time.

I'm a Miamian who was born and raised in Miami. My family has lived in Florida since the 1800s. I'm what you call a native born Floridian. I can also claim the title of being an official Conch as my ancestors were one of the earliest Jews to open up shop in Key West and were naturalized as "citizens of Key West" back before the "Turn of the Century" and I do mean the 1900s not the current century. They went through storms in Key West, Miami, the 1921 Hurricane in Tampa and many; so many it's hard to even name all the storms they lived through in Florida. My Uncle survived the 1926 Hurricane as a small child and talked often of stories you don't want to hear on a dark, moonless night with a strong breeze blowing. I know Miami and I know Hurricanes so that said... please read on and the take away message is to use the links posted at the bottom of this post to properly prepare for a Hurricane. And, this year with the new policies in place from the NHC you will have very early warning and I urge you IF warnings are posted for your piece of Florida Real Estate please take them seriously and act accordingly!

My goal this morning is to make people think and take this current hurricane season seriously. Yes ACE has been low and many believe TS Cindy should never been a "Tropical Storm" vs a "Subtropical" and it's easy to point out the A storm back that formed way before the season started... but don't ignore the obvious. We are tracking TD 4 that formed before 40 West in the first week of July from a viable CV Wave that came off of Africa in late June. June wasn't too soon this year and that should tell you something. If you live in Miami or New Orleans or Tampa or Charleston and do not have a hurricane plan for this coming year you obviously like to live by the seat of your pants and are an adrenaline junkie. Or you are totally living in denial and spending way too much time thinking on the August eclipse and not worrying on a busy Hurricane Season.

Many killer hurricane seasons were loaded with junk Tropical Storms that never amounted to much, but the pattern was there and the like a pinball machine broken that keeps automatically shooting balls out of the chute one or two big ones make it into the record books. Look at 1992 a relatively weak year all in all yet Andrew is forever remembered by the numbers 1992. Weak season or busy season what you need to wonder on is not the eclipse that can be plotted and waited for (clear skies permitting) is the hurricane season of 2017. Heck you can chase an eclipse in real time the way we chase storms.. changing plans with the weather. IF a Hurricane has your hometown written on it's sleeve you can't pick up your house and runaway. Though a really strong hurricane could pick up parts of your house and distribute parts of it into neighbors yards.

Do you have a plan for the Hurricane Season? If not.. make one. And make multiple options. What you would do for a Cat 1 or Cat 2 hurricane is NOT what you would do for a Cat 4 Hurricane. And what you would do for a slow moving Tropical Storm that will flood your low lying backyard is not what you would do for a Cat 4 Hurricane moving WNW at 18 MPH around a strong High Pressure Ridge. You can pray for a miracle that it will turn and make landfall upstate like Hurricane David did but sometimes like Hurricane Andrew they just keep coming at you like a buzz saw moving closer and closer until it tries to blow your house down. Surviving a hurricane is often either a matter of shear luck or having executed a well developed plan. Thankfully the NHC does all it can to give you the earliest possible warning of real tropical trouble descending on your beautiful tropical town.

Now let's illustrate this with some Hurricane History.

1979 Hurricane David creates long lines and panic in the Miami Area as a Killer Hurricane that was deadly in the Islands takes aim at South Florida. Miami hadn't had a hurricane in a long time and there was a lot of denial as well as many new residents in the Miami area. Spoiler Alert.. David turned away and did make landfall further upstate. Unfortunately for many Miami residents who got in their cars and drove in traffic jams out of Miami that took cheap, poorly made motel rooms up the state near where Hurricane David made landfall. Oops. Their homes were safe but often their motel rooms were wet and they were terrified in unfamiliar surroundings but hey they had homes to go home to ...so Miami got lucky.



In 1992 another hurricane took aim at Miami and half the population went into sheer panic mode (as no one really had to make hurricane plans in years) and the other half shrugged insistent it would turn away like David did in back in 1979. Miami, understand please, goes through long dry periods without landfalls that make the inhabitants sure there is some protective force field around our part of Florida that sticks out into the ocean daring a hurricane to visit. OBX in NC gets hurricanes much more than Miami does and rarely does Tampa get a direct hit. But in any given year a hurricane can show up like an unwanted relative on your doorstep.

David was a hurricane that people watched on the Nightly News slam into the Islands and created panic way in advance of it's actual watches and warnings. There's something about those storms that taste blood in the Islands that make people upstream wake up and so they should as they often go on to do it again. Cleo, Hugo, David are three such storms that people took seriously early on because of the fury it unleashed onto the Islands before continuing on towards the SE coast of America.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1935/3/track.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1992/ANDREW/track.gif

Then you have hurricanes like Andrew that seemingly pop up out of nowhere from struggling Tropical Storms that choose a bad time for the USA to pull it together. Sort of in the same way that the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane suddenly intensified from weak tropical storm status to landfall as a historic Category 5 a few days later. I suppose with our new satellite imagery we would have been tracking the Labor Day Hurricane as a weak Invest forecast to intensify to strong Tropical Storm with one or two models showing crazy scenarios that were discounted early on and trusted later. With our new warning system in place there would have been watches and warnings issued way before it actually intensified over the Gulfstream and those vets would have gotten out of Long Key before the storm surge moved in and took the rescue train that was running late out to sea.



Then we come to the 1926 Hurricane that actually hit Miami dead on as a Category 4 hurricane that created a storm surge that washed over Miami Beach before marching down Flagler Street in downtown Miami testing it's new Bayfront park before the park was even finished.

I want you to look at the 1926 Hurricane Season carefully. For one there is a strong parallel in that a hurricane formed before the Islands in July. It had a different track from Bret and TD4 but the early formation and the strong high makes it worth remembering.

In July a Hurricane took aim at the fairly young city of Miami, yet much like Hurricane David it moved on up the coast and brushed Miami knocking down trees that needed trimming and taking down some poorly built boom time construction with it. People laughed it off as the Winter Season tourists were far away and the early residents used to hard jobs in year round tropical heat went about picking up debris and making the Magic City beautiful again. It was called by locals a "tree trimmer" storm and as it moved away Miami seemed magically safe and sadly future warnings in September were taken with huge bags of salt so to speak. 

In September another storm warning was posted and Hurricane Flags were hoisted and Miami was warned to watch out for a West Indies Cyclone. Miami Weatherman Richard Gray ran about begging people to take note of the storm that was on it's way. Some took it seriously but they were mostly old timers who remembered stories about the few storms that made landfall in South Florida and the Florida Keys. Most of the newcomers in the new city had no clue what would follow that golden dawn in the morning that was said to be the color of burnished copper. The word "clueless" would be an understatement here and it's worth remembering Miami was barely 30 years old as a city with very little hurricane history to remember. 

Compare and contrast those tracks.

Why did I go long with a post about Miami Hurricanes this morning rather than going long on small but tenacious Tropical Depression 4 and the new wave off of Africa? Because I want this to be a stand alone post I can refer to somewhere down the road if needed. And, most importantly I want you to take this particular year seriously. If we get lucky the Magical City of Miami will not get visited by a Hurricane. But, you can't rely on luck even if you can kiss the dice and wish for it often. You can prepare for a Hurricane vs say an Earthquake. Hurricanes happen but they don't JUST HAPPEN you have time to PREPARE and there are numerous sites online where you can find information relevant to your particular life.

Do you have more than one child in diapers? You need to stock up now when you see a sale and not use them until after the season is over in October or November? Buy LOTS of Baby Wipes both for use on the baby and for use when your water is questionable to use and you need to clean up without using up your treasure chest of water that you hopefully are putting away in case you get a visit from a West Indies Cyclone as they used to call them. And, if you get a visitor from the Bahamas lots of luck.

Do you take medicine on a regular basis? Get an extra new inhaler if you have asthma. Do you take Diabetes or Blood Pressure medication? Stock up on Over the Counter Allergy meds as trust me you will need them after the storm as the clean up has it's own unique problems. Buy lots of kleenex and paper products, you can be ecologically minded after the storm. If the storm moves on donate them to a homeless shelter that will use them.

Do you have pets? Do you have a plan? Buy extra pet food especially if you have a large dog..

Do you have elderly members of the family that need to be taken into consideration? Do you live near the beautiful bay or out in the far reaches of the suburbs?

Use these links please! Save them, refer to them and hopefully you will not need to use them.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/prepare/ready.php
http://www.publix.com/pages/publix-storm-basics
http://wsvn.com/news/be-ready-how-to-prepare-for-a-storm/

Please go to those sites, read the information as Hurricanes are one of the few natural disasters you can try and prepare for and as I said make contingent plans based on needing to evacuate from the proverbial BIG ONE vs a Category 1 Hurricane you will easily ride out safely IF you are prepared and knowledgeable in advance.

October Hurricanes that hit Miami from the SW are another sort of storm we will discuss later in September as this season is hot to trot and running a month ahead of track at least.

1979 had strong tropical waves early on...

...much like this year.

While TD 4 is still a work in process... 

This chart below will be filled in by October.

 Between now and then you can prepare for the worst.

Pray for the best, but prepare for the worst.

And I say pray vs "hope" as I know hurricanes.

And I know Miami History.

I love Miami.

Nowhere like it... 

But sometimes those beautiful breezes from Biscayne Bay..

...can blow a strong, steady wind.

And Hurricane Flags are hoisted.

And watches are posted.

And cones are put out by the NHC.

Don't say I didn't warn ya.. 

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter.

Follow me on Twitter for updates in real time.

Check out #HurricaneStrong on Twitter or online.

And understand this year is said to be by many in the know similar to the year 1979. Let's hope it's not like 1926 that began in July with an Atlantic named storm before the Islands.