Will a Major Hurricane Hit the Miami Broward WPB Area This Year? I Hope Not... But it Could They Are Overdue for the EYE of a Hurricane.

 

This is a map made by Brian McNoldy

https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy

He's excellent to follow.

If you live in South Florida....

...or anywhere during the Hurricane Season.

While things are quiet and not much is going on I'm trying to put links to sites to use and people to follow on social media who are excellent sources of reliable information. In his case, he is prone to unique, original ways of presenting valuable material that helps you understand better some of the finer points of a particular situation be it a current set up or historical information.   If you were playing a paint online game you'd be trying to figure out what color line to draw across the Miami to West Palm Beach metropolitan area and that's concerning as that area is overdue for such a hurricane.  Many in Miami and the Ft. Lauderdale area would argue that and point to all the trees down and their roof damage from Hurricane Irma in 2017 and that's because they fail to remember they did not get the EYE of Irma nor the brunt of it's power, they had all that damage from a brush with Irma that made landfall in the Florida Keys but due to it's immense size delivered a wicked punch to North Miami Beach, Walnut Creek and other places far to the North and East of where Irma made landfall. A similar smaller storm would not have impacted the Miami area if it moved quickly through Marathon in the Florida Keys so remember with hurricanes not only strength but size matters! 

Also what is worth remembering is that the general Miami area was in the Cone often for both Irma and Dorian and Matthew scared Miamians greatly even if the cone showed it could stay offshore. The NHC did a good job with those hurricanes and they did veer away from a visit to Miami. This is a very DANGEROUS set up as what happens after these sort of brushes with danger is that people begin to believe Miami is safe and all the hurricanes will veer way from the coast as Dorian and Matthew did but many such as the 1926 and 1928 Hurricanes did not, nor did Betsy, Katrina nor Andrew that made a due West beeline for Miami and never took the road that David did in 1979 when it took aim at Miami and then veered up the coast. Why is this important? I knew many people in Miami during Andrew that refused to believe that Andrew would not do what David did and it would go somewhere else. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1928_Okeechobee_hurricane

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_David similar but made landfall along the N Central coastline.

Miami is a city that always has new people who have moved into the area and never experienced a Hurricane. Old times tell them about Donna and Betsy and Andrew and they think they will be fine, they will not be if a Major Hurricane makes landfall at Hollywood Beach or Aventura just North of Miami but all part of the same metropolitan area demographically and otherwise. Also we have a huge transitory population of people who are they college students or employed in the HUGE hotels and restaurant business that makes up a giant slice of the Miami economy!

Sadly Andrew taught me that the worst case scenario can and does happen. For years I kept this poster in my living room as a reminder that the worst case scenario can play out and a major hurricane can and will make a landfall in your living room if you live in Florida long enough.  Note that also goes for Savannah, Jacksonville and Tampa! 

Orange ... high pressure. 

H for Huge High.

A nice wave over Africa... 

There's online chatter on something in 10 days or so...

.. maybe down in the Caribbean headed North.

Or by the Yucatan.... or out in the Atlantic.

Models keep showing long term possibilities.

But nothing expected to form for the next 5 days.

Use this time wisely for Hurricane Preparation.

This IS Hurricane Season.

June Hurricanes have happened making landfall...

... up from the Carib towards Florida.

Currently the huge High Pressure is in place, so use this time wisely. As I said in a previous blog, my friend Sharon was sure we would get a hurricane in the very dead summer of 1992 when the first named storm didn't show up until Mid August named Andrew. Sharon rinsed out bottles of Publix Soda and filled them up with tap water and stored them away and bought inexpensive bottled water when on sale. When Andrew changed course for Miami, as she thought it would do as she didn't trust that weak cold front in August, she had close to 80 bottles of water stored in her garage to use for drinking or washing. After Hurricane Andrew on Miami Beach far from the eye but getting strong impressive winds, we had no water for a long time and we had no electric even longer and we had no cable to watch TWC until late November. 

Be like Sharon, don't be that guy at Publix buying perishable deli and ice cream because you are sure this is just a big scare and the next big Major Hurricane aiming for Miami will turn away and crash into South Carolina as Matthew did......  Prepare now! Buy canned food, water, non-perishable food and stock up on your medications. Don't be that person left at Publix who went too late and is standing at the empty aisles staring at cans of oysters and sardines. 

Thanks for your patience while I was on vacation in Miami visiting my family and attending a wedding for Sharon's son. It was a long road trip after a few days in Charlotte for business before the trip to Miami, a stop on the way back in Savannah and I'm finally back in Raleigh. I learned years back from friends of mine who worked at the NHC that the best time to usually take a vacation is actually early June, before the season ramps up :) Learn from the best ... 

I should be updating every day from now on so follow me as we cruise into the height of the Hurricane Season when SAL begins to let go of his dusty hold on the Atlantic and the Huge High Pressure suddenly fades away and yellow circles pop up South of Cuba or off the coast of Florida in the Bahamas and as always near the Yucatan. 

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps. A dirty little secret is that Miami Beach was trashed by Hurricane Andrew, all the street signs, store awnings and often AC units on condos crashed to the ground below. Massive Ficus Trees were uprooted with most of the yard, pine trees on Pine Tree Drive fell onto homes. My neighbors roof on Flamingo Drive took flight and landed in tact in the back yard of a house on Pine Tree Drive near 41st Street. Bits and pieces of plastic from the Dry Cleaners, the Used Bookstore and Epicure then on Arthur Godfrey Road landed all across my parent's house on 37th and Royal Palm Avenue. My neighbor next door, a photographer who was working for Newsweek got back from covering Homestead and asked what happened on Miami Beach as it wasn't mentioned in the news. As Andrew approached Miami, just before it made that itsy bitsy dip to the South that saved most of downtown Miami... it's approaching wind and wild surf took aim on Miami Beach. I'm grateful that despite all that wild damage (we had no Traffic Lights on 41st Street for half a year, they all were gone with the wind) we were spared the horrific damage the eye did in Homestead. So while thinking on all the debris you had from Irma remember it made landfall near Big Pine Key NOT in Miami nor Hollywood Florida! Prepare now! Use this "quiet" time wisely!!

All the damage in the old blog below was from Miami Beach. They hired people fast to clean it up and laid low and tried to stay out of the news and to get back up and running for the 1992/93 Tourist Season. They were not as lucky in 1926... but that's another blog.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2012/08/hurricane-andrew-look-back-from-miami.html

Yes most buildings were "fine" but everything else went whoosh with the wind... and that beautiful Polynesian style roof some friend of mine had... small square houses do best in a hurricane in Florida... no power for weeks, no cable for months... debris sat until late October after the Andrew Hurricane.

Cristobal a Stormy Story Still Unfolding. Where's Dolly? Will Dolly Be a Deja Vu Storm in GOM? African Waves.... A Look at Hurricane History. Matthew, Florence, Sandy and the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane. Miami Beach History & Architecture

Cristobal inland and still traveling.

Has a passport to Canada...

..and no govt official can keep him out.

I'll do an End Game Post on Cristobal....

...when it's oveer. 

Because the story is far from over.

As for the Tropics today...

..what are we looking at?

Tropical Possibilities.

That's high latitude trouible for June.

June too soon but is it in 2020?

Below is the SW Carib.

Models show a Deja Vu storm forming...

...and moving up into the GOM AGAIN.

Is that Dolly? 

Say it ain't Deja Vu Dolly?

Time will tell.

In motion below.

#MondayMorning #thoughts on the tropics #cristobal & where’s #Dolly? Will Dolly be a #Dejavu #storm? Definitely maybe https://t.co/XLVVLmtkcS #writing #weather #hurricane #history #miami #miamibeach #architecture pic.twitter.com/NGazgGTG0z

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) June 8, 2020

Yes there is in area the Atlantic there is a yellow area.

NHC walking back it's chances so ...

....not gonna talk on it now.

But further out in the Atlantic is a Wave off Africa.

A wave departing Africa higher up...

..where they are supposed to be.

Where they need to be to develop.

5 degrees is too far South.

10 degrees and we have possibilities.

We will talk on that later.

Today I'm looking back a bit at history.

Why????

Because history repeats.

And we learn from history!

These images from Tropical Storm Cristobal isnpired today's Hurricane History part of the blog.

Currently Cristobal is moving up through the center of the Country, still in the South but on his way Northbound carrying with it the potential for severe weather and localized flooding. Honestly, that has been it's legacy as it's distant weather pounded Central Florida with thunderstorms and tornadoes and localized flooding in the delta regions of Louisiana along the barrier islands of Mississippi. People seem surprised because it was "only a Tropical Storm" and a pretty minimal one intensity wise but a wet, tropical storm can carry with it a whole lot of water.

Steve means lousy as in intensity.

But in watery misery for those cleaning up...

...it was a messy, crappy storm.

Not intense, but size wise huge and wet.

That's sand not sea foam.

I saw this picture from post Tropical Storm Cristobal coverage and it amazed me that people were amazed that this could or would happen. If you live in a beach town and the tropical wind brings in a tropical storm or hurricane it's common to have your streets near the beach covered in sand; adding especially if the storm has come a long ways to your door to deliver you that sand. It's often not how intense a hurricane is, but on the contrary, how far it has traveled to get to your destination.

Sand covered the boardwalk in Long Beach, NY after Sandy a once Major Hurricane going extratropical tore up the boardwalk and flooded homes, businesses and left a mess after traveling a long distance from the Deep Caribbean.

You have to think of a hurricane as a living breathing thing, that has traveled huge distances carrying with it a dome of water and moving endlessly until it can't travel anymore on the ocean and then it rams itself up onto your door like a wrecking ball. A storm such as Matthew or Florence will do more water damage than a storm that blows up immediately and makes landfall suddenly. Again, I said "water damage" vs strong winds or severe weather. Matthew made landfall as a Caegory 1 Hurricane in South Carolina as it's explosive water footprint stomped far inland into North Carolina a mere ghosts of it's intensity when it churned off the coast of South America as a Major Hurricane. The water pushed inland, far inland filling up every river basin in North Carolina covering farms, homes and towns as it flung itself onto land unable to make that turn away as the Hurricane Center had often predicted earlier that it would before going out to sea. Matthew's wet legacy just kept on coming, like a big, huge train unable to stop on a dime the way a fast sports car would be able to and that is common in such hurricanes. Nothing new under the Tropical Sun as they say.

Hurricane Florence, two years later, drenched the same region of the Carolinas with flooding rains and tremendous water damage as a mere shadow of itself, no longer a Cat 3 or 4 or 5 hurricane but one filled with rain, water and endless misery.

Matthew's track below.

Quite the traveler.

A wave that developed just before the Islands.

Sat on just off coast of South America...

...and had no problems with land interaction.

Below is Florence.

The Hurricane that refused to die.

A fish storm that kept swimming.

All the way across the ocean.

After being an intense Major Hurricane.

It reached it's destination as a shadow of itself.

And yet parts of the Carolinas are still cleaning up from it.

Old picture of Collins Avenue covered in sand.

Beware those long traveling storms.

Almost a hundred years earlier.. 

The 1926 Great Miami Hurricane shown below.

Obviously this started from a wave off of Africa.

Ship reports showed there was a West Indies Cyclone moving WNW.

That's what they called it then...

 And it slammed into Miami as a strong Category 4 hurricane.

And aside from the intense winds, it was a very wet hurricacne.

The streets flooded, sand covered Miami Beach.

From the Ocean to the Bay it was covered with sand.

Locals had to dig out their Model T Fords.

http://docmgmt.miamibeachfl.gov/WebLink/DocViewM.aspx?id

=76141&page=1&dbid=0&cr=1

Wait for it to load, it's worth it ... because nothing like a real obituary of a hero of Miami beach.

A mere snippet of the story...

Rose Weiss, the "Mother of Miami Beach" attained that fame after practically single handledly forcing the dazed and confused survivors of the hurricane on Miami Beach to get out there and start cleaning the sand off the streets and cleaning up the mess the hurricane made. Rose walked up to Lincoln Road and into the offices of Carl Fisher where people had gathered, numb, in shock at the horrendous damage to their beautiful paradise and bullied everyone into getting out there and cleaning it up insisting Miami Beach would be better than it had been before. And, Rosie who grew up as child on Miami Beach was prophetic on that one as I don't even think that Carl Fisher could imagine how amazing Miami Beach would be in 2020.

Rose Weiss believed in Miami Beach, she knew it when it looked like this below from 1925 and it's still going strong. Buildings getting bigger, higher and really I love it but too many people for a mere mangrove Island in the Bay.

That's up near the Deauville.

A narrow part of the beach.

A place where the ocean meets the bay often...

...in a real hurricane!

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/fl-xpm-2001-11-04-0111020746-story.html

Anyone who has ever driven to Miami Beach...

...across the Julia Tuttle Causeway knows this building.

I worked in that building.

I practically lived in that building at times.

It's called the Giller Building.

My kid's pediatrician was in that building.

I once had an After Prom Party there.. really.

My son briefly had an office there but that's a movie.

Giller and Giller Architects had offices in their building.

A family that survived the 1926 Hurricane...

.... how I don't really know. 

Sounds impossible but true.

And then he helped design a city.

Miami Beach was a paradise once again.

The water covered Miami Beach.

The raging ocean covered Miami Beach.

People survived, Norman Giller survived!

Went on to become an Architect....

.... that designed the future Miami Beach.

Understand, the people who survived the hurricane survived it by climbing up above the first floor of apartment buildings and watching as the water met the bay and covered all of South Beach. To this day it amazes me anyone survived that especially when you consider there were waves and storm surge as the waters were not just high but calm, they were a raging ocean. I interviewed a friend of my Grandfather who as a young boy remembers climbing up to the 3rd floor of an apartment building on 3rd Street at the tip of South Beach and watching waves battering the building. He remembered his father leaving the building to walk over to the services for Yom Kippur and having to come back because "there was so much rain the streets were flooding" but it wasn't flooding from the rain but the incoming storm surge of a strong Category 4 hurricane that covered the whole of Miami Beach and yet somehow, miraculously I'd add, some people survived while others died. Many died during the eye when they tried to make their way back to the mainland and the back side of the hurricane swept them off the causeway to a watery grave. Sounds melodramatic but very true. The 1926 Miami Hurricane is called that because it was indeed the real Miami Hurricane as Andrew made landfall further to the South sparing Downtown Miami from a disaster one cannot even imagine.

But Hurricane Betsy covered Miami Beach with sand also as did Andrew and many other storms over time. Miami Beach is basically a barrier island that was just a spit of land covered by mangroves that Miami people rowed over to in their boats for a picnic on Sunday before rowing back before dark while admiring dolphins and manatees in the water that was once crystal clear all the way to the bottom. Oh what a time it was... 

Look at it now!

High up above Lincoln Road.

Where my father had offices.

Where my son the architect loves to hang out.

Me, standing on top of the world of Miami Beach.

You can take the girl out of Miami Beach...

...but you can't take Miami Beach out of the girl.

You know why?

I got the sand in my toes ;)

Have a wonderful day.

When I go long on the Miami Hurricane...

...know tropical waves are rolling off of Africa.

And I see hurricanes on the horizon.

So prepare, do what you need to do.

And we will follow them step by step.

Advisory by advisory.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Know that Twitter is mostly weather.

Instagram is weather and anything I love.

Don't say I didn't warn you,

Invest 94L in the Caribbean. Circle in the Carib 40% Orange Today. Hurricane Hazel Anniversary. Cat 4 Hurricane in October in the Carolinas All The Way Into Maine. Hurricane Matthew and The Johnston Flood Discussion. Reminder to Give Charity as $$$ is Needed in Hard Hit Areas. Thank You.

Yes there is something in the Caribbean again.

It's name today is Invest 94L.

It's being studied for possible formation.

Some models try to take it North I'm not gonna lie.
But many take it into the Pacific...

..after more heavy rains for Central America.

Invest 94L shown below from the NRL.

Models from www.flhurricane.com

I can't discount one of those west bound waves...

...doesn't end up making trouble down the road.

Not today... but if it hits the right spot.

Models are not hot...

...but I watch just the same.

Invest 94L in the Carib.

A low riding wave in the Atlantic.

The tropics today show us an orange for Fall 40% circle in the Caribbean. We spoke about this last week that it was very possible after Hurricane Michael was long gone low pressure would try to form in what is a climo favored area in the SW Caribbean in October. There is no voodoo here going on, it's where the tropics are usually active in October and the pattern this year makes it possible for another storm to form. It's also worth noting ironically the MDR is finally warming up and there are several healthy tropical waves moving Westbound towards the Caribbean as I type this post. This year is unique in that the EPAC is still going strong in October so perhaps it will go there vs up into the Gulf of Mexico. Time will tell. Just watching today. And, the warm water in the MDR and along the East Coast makes it a priority to keep watching the tropics into November this year.

Note how Dabuh tracks the waves.

He explains the set up that usually develops storms there.

You don't need to speak Spanish to understand the one below.

They are not Invests they are waves and they are numbered.

And they are watched and studied.

Fronts often stall out off the East coast so we watch there too.

Cranky explains with great maps.

Snow and storms.

October it has it all.

Sadly it also has Santana Winds and Fires as well.

But this is about the tropics today.

I lived in California a long time...

..October always makes me remember Santana Winds.

 Mike's traveling back to Florida he is seeing up close and personal..

...the damage from Hurricane Michael.

Knowing him as I do he will talk on this in depth.

It's humbling to see that sort of damage.

Now for some Hurricane History as today is a huge milestone in Hurricane History as it's the anniversary the strongest hurricanes to slam into the Carolinas and in the middle of October yet. Maybe Global Warming started back decades ago or maybe we don't have historic records of hurricanes that made landfall in the Carolinas in October during the Crusades or the Roman Empire or the days when the Vikings were coming to America before the English ever came here. History is the long, long, long term study of life on our planet and when it comes to weather history other than odd scribbles we can't totally decipher on cave walls in Spain we don't really have reliable information before the middle of the 1800s. Seafaring explorers and pirates kept some records and Columbus wrote about an out of season Hurricane and he knew the difference between a Gale in the Winter and a Cyclonic system; he once used knowledge of an soon to happen eclipse to get out of being a victim in the Caribbean. Old time seafaring people knew more than when we give them credit for without satellite imagery, the ever maligned GFS or highly touted EURO and they knew storms.

https://www.space.com/27412-christopher-columbus-lunar-eclipse.html

They say history repeats and in truth it repeats often. Matthew was like the second coming of Hazel except it was kinder and pulled away from the coast rather than plowing far inland. It also made landfall as a shadow of it's former self intensity wise but it still packed a huge punch.

Compare the track to Matthew below.

Hard to believe two storms could have such similar tracks.

But then in 1954 and 1955 six storms had similar tracks.

1954 and 1955 were horrific, legendary years in Hurricane History in modern times along the East Coast of North America. Six hurricanes in two years took aim at OBX that juts out into the Atlantic seeming to scream down to the West Indies "Hit me with your best shot, fire away" and Mother Nature did on a regular basis.... but six in two years?  Those charts above look similar but they are two different years that aimed cyclonic fury at the Carolinas and the Eastern seaboard. I'm guessing the water was unusually warm along the Eastern Seaboard as it has been this year to maintain that sort of energy that far North.

Actually Hurricane Hazel caught that front and went straight to Canada.

The pictures below are from Wilson, NC

Note how far inland Wilson is....

Wilson is a charming town that was once one of the capitals of tobacco country; the County Seat and it has grand old buildings that hint at it's history back in the day. I could show you pictures from Raleigh but I like this pictures, the pictures from Raleigh look the same. I spent some time at the Wilson Public Library talking to the man in charge of the history room and he showed me pictures and told me stories and he made it clear that in "our lifetime" no hurricane did what Hurricane Hazel did to towns far inland. Yes, Hugo hit Charlotte and yes Fran hit Raleigh but according to him no hurricane round these parts did the damage or had the fury far inland as Hazel did in 1954. 

Whole books shown above have been written just about Hurricane Hazel that raced North to catch a cold front in Mid October the same way Hurricane Michael did early this month and Hazel made landfall as a Category 4 much further North than Michael delivering hurricane force winds far into the interior part of North Carolina and parts of the Eastern Seaboard. A good blog post from Wilson explaining Hazel in their own words.

https://wilsoncountylocalhistorylibrary.wordpress.com/2014/01/30/hurricane-hazel-in-wilson-1954/ Wilson is a beautiful, inland town in North Carolina but the damage was what you usually see along the coastline.

Obviously either SAL or lower water temps....

... in the MDR halted action further East.

Looking at the 1954 hurricane season again you will notice one thing about it, a lack of deep MDR action or CV Hurricanes. They seem to form further West and thrive further North than most years. I want to make this clear I am not denying concerns on Global Warming but it's not a basket you can toss everything into or something to blame when history is just repeating. In general we have barely had strong hurricanes over the last decade or two in comparison to the 1920s, 1940s through the 1960s. The last two years have been a throwback to the old days for whatever reason, but if you are going to blame Global Warming you have to explain why we had a lack of landfalling strong hurricanes for a long while before the tropics became active again suddenly and you can't just blame it on El Nino as Andrew and Betsy were El Nino years. I'm sure there's a reason, there is always a reason.

Another example is the back to back Flash Flood in Endicott City. When it comes to Endicott City and the recent flash flooding they have had I wonder how much development of the area has made the flash flooding worse. Easy to blame that on Global Warming but in truth it has become a popular area outside Baltimore and the construction in that area could seriously have made a bad situation worse. It's an example where "MAN" has built up areas beyond the ability the topography has to maintain the flow of water in areas where it's probable if they knew then what they knew now they would not have built it there but somewhere else nearby. In those days cities needed a river and you built near the river and when it flooded, you buried the dead, rebuilt and prayed it wouldn't flood again. We know more now and yet we keep building in areas not meant to maintain such growth.

So.......... know......... hurricanes have always happened in October even Category four hurricanes and flash floods have always happened when cities were built near the river in narrow canyons where the ground below could not absorb any of the water. Recently I learned something I never knew about a historic flood in America. This is a blog worth reading and again man (I use the word collectively) changed nature for their own needs and greed and the outcome was horrific using the Michael adjective of the month. Some of the world's wealthiest men were involved with a hunting and fishing club and they made adjustments to a nearby dam and that sadly led to one of the Nation's worst "natural disasters" that killed over 2,200 people.

"The club did engage in periodic maintenance of the dam, but made some harmful modifications to it. They installed fish screens across the spillway to keep the expensive game fish from escaping, which had the unfortunate effect of capturing debris and keeping the spillway from draining the lake’s overflow. They also lowered the dam by a few feet in order to make it possible for two carriages to pass at the same time, so the dam was only about four feet higher than the spillway. The club never reinstalled the drainage pipes so that the reservoir could be drained."

https://www.jaha.org/attractions/johnstown-flood-museum/flood-history/the-club-and-the-dam/

I'm sure there was no intent to cause a flood.

Ignorance and a bit of greed caused the flood.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johnstown_Flood

From the link above.

"The dam broke after several days of extremely heavy rainfall, releasing 14.55 million cubic meters of water.^[4] With a volumetric flow rate that temporarily equaled the average flow rate of the Mississippi River,^[5] 2,209 people,^[6] according to one account, lost their lives, and the flood accounted for $17 million of damage (about $463 million in 2017 dollars^[3]).

The American Red Cross, led by Clara Barton and with 50 volunteers, undertook a major disaster relief effort.^[7] "

My last comment here is to give money to the Red Cross www.redcross.org and the reason why is simple. They know from experience what people there need and they have the means to get it into the areas to help the most people possible. There are many good charities. I have given Chabad of Tallahassee charity money for years as I know them as some of my children have lived in the area and I know their work well. They are helping people there survive the aftermath of Michael in the Panhandle. https://www.chabadtallahassee.com/

https://www.chabadtallahassee.com/templates

/articlecco_cdo/aid/4162273/jewish/Hurricane-Relief.htm

Please read the story and though it's run by a Jewish group they help "people" in need whenever they can as do most charities who do awesome work. The act of charity is one of the biggest mitzvos (good deeds) you can do and if you have the ability to volunteer and work with a group, a Church or the Red Cross more power to you as it takes a village to rebuild our villages sometimes. 

If you know a good charity or organization that is raising money for people in that area then I suggest you research them well to make sure they have the ability and the network to get the job done and if so please donate and possibly volunteer to help them yourselves. So much needs to be done and it will need to be done for months... not just weeks as it will take a long time for the region to rebuild. Not only is it compelling to see convoys of power trucks moving into the area, it's also humbling and compelling to see people in vans bringing baby goods such as diapers or pet food into a stricken area from far away. I saw that after Irma... as we drove South back to Miami next to several vans filled with boxes of diapers on their way to help from New England. God Bless Them.

The Hurricane City is not over and sometimes patterns repeat and it is possible areas that were affected so far could be impacted again. I am not saying it will happen but models show the possibility and the pattern itself lends itself to a repetitive pattern in the Gulf of Mexico and along the East Coast be it a hurricane or a hybrid sort of storm coming together with a front. With fronts on the move concerns are still there but they evole into other set ups that bring trouble both tropical and weather wise.

The real "Perfect Storm" was Hurricane Grace joining together with other weather features to turn into what really was the "Perfect Storm" not just a book and a movie. Watch the video from TWC on how Jim Cantore and the legendary much missed John Hope covered this historic, complex storm.

I don't have to remind you Hurricane Sandy...

..was a Halloween Hurricane as well.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

www.redcross.org

Great movie.

All I got was a tee shirt. 

A yellow tee shirt from the movie crew...

Tropics Today AND How Do We Repair the Saffir - Simpson Scale to Make It Convey Dangers of a Hurricane Better? It's Not All About WIND... People Die from INLAND FLOODING Not Just Storm Surge and Tornadoes In Bands... Even AFTER A Hurricane Is NO Longer MAJOR or "Just a Tropical Storm"

Note the tropics are not dead...

...because Florence is gone.

High chances for another high latitude system.

Subtropical or Tropical?

We've been here before.

Down in the Caribbean watching 97L

Been watching it for a while.

There is an area that could develop.

It has low chances.

It needs to be watched until it's dead, dead and deader.

There are silent runner waves ...

Getting past the SAL.

A ULL that could work it's way down to the surface.

Convection in the Caribbean.

I'll discuss that more tomorrow.

Today the big storm in the tropics is...

The discussion on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

The way we define hurricanes.

Cat 1 vs Major Cat 4.

Everyone is talking.

Everyone has an opinion.

The debate goes on.

Will change happen?

Or do we wait for the next Cat 1 where 38 people die.

And the dollar amount can't even be put...

...onto the damage yet?

Some voices from people I respect very much.

Note also what Rob said.

This is true... we discussed this on Twitter.

He wanted people to keep their guard up.

He is a paid service...

... he is paid for what he does.

Tho he tweets information to all.

Did the NHC going by the basic scale?

Let the ball drop in ways in conveying the danger?

They work by rules. 

They are the Government not a Private service.

They have rules and ways of doing things.

They show a cone to show where the eye is moving.

That comes up short often with Tropical Storms...

..or Category 1 Hurricanes winding down in strength

Do we find a way to fix the Saffir-Simpson Scale?

Improve it or lose it?

Make a new scale?

There have always been wind speed scales.

But a hurricane is more than just "WIND"

An incredibly useful tool to tell you how strong the wind is blowing was devised in 1811 known as the Beaufort Wind Scale. Try it sometime in a summer storm or a tropical depression... on any very windy day you can really tell how strong the wind is blowing with this scale shown below.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beaufort_scale

Mike has this graphic all the way at the bottom left.

Good to move around his page.

So much there.

www.spaghettimodels.com

Amazingly this scale really works.

Print it out.

You can keep it with you in case power goes out...

And you can really tell general wind speed by it.

It's a great rule of thumb.

Unless you live in some odd wind tunnel area.

Trust me this scale is as good as gold.

But hard to convey to the general public.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_scale

In 1971 the Saffir - Simpson Scale was came along.

It is very easy to convey.

Breaks hurricanes into 5 categories.

Seems logical doesn't it?

From Google:

The truth is they both are good. The Saffir-Simpson Scale is a general way of judging a hurricane in a media based world where they want a headline and the NHC wants to convey the strength of a hurricane and though it isn't officially said ... the idea was to show how dangerous a hurricane is vs ordinary. Obviously no hurricane is ordinary and all have dangers but it's inherently understood a Major Hurricane (Category 3 to Category 5) is a deadly, dangerous hurricane.

I wrote extensively on my blog on my belief that we need to change the way we convey the dangers of hurricanes and the NHC needs to update it's cone to show dangerous weather not just the track of the "center" where the winds are highest in the eye. It gives a poor understanding to the public who figures the worst dangers must be in the "center" that the NHC is tracking and as areas not in the center (parts of NC that were FLOODED) they feel as the intensity of the winds go down their dangers also go down and therefore don't evacuate or drive back to Wilmington from the safety of Raleigh as I met a few people who were doing when she was downgraded to a Category 1 and the NHC put out charts and discussion saying if she made landfall at all she would bounce back or slide SE along the coast as far South possibly as Charleston. I know they were trying to warn people as far South as Savannah they could be in danger but they gave people in North Carolina inland that the DANGER was less ....almost as if a flag had been lowered down to "only a Category 1" and sliding SE along the coast away from North Carolina the danger was less now. Yes, obviously being slammed by a Cat 4 would have been worse, but the extreme danger of flooding, tornadoes and river flooding was there even with a weak Cat 1 and yes the "center" drifted S into South Carolina. The forecast verified, but the true dangers were lost in the shuffle in my opinion.

This graphic is the last one Wundergound posted.

When it was a Tropical Depression.

Dumping HUGE amounts of water on NC.

8.04 TRILLION GALLONS OF WATER FELL ON NC.

Where is that conveyed in warnings?

Where is that conveyed by the Saffir-Simpson scale?

Again many areas outside the "cone" for the "center"

Were swamped by flooding.

Currently there is a storm of controversy over the use of the Saffir-Simpson scale that is not new but often discussed over and over after hurricanes that suddenly drop down in intensity before landfall are suddenly underestimated by the general public as "not as dangerous." This did not begin with Florence as Hurricane Sandy, a once stronger hurricane, was downgraded just prior to landfall much as Florence was as it approached the Carolina coast. Earlier in Sandy's track people in Florida were terrified it would make landfall in Miami as a Major Hurricane and for some time it looked as if it would be stronger. But the NY area rarely gets hurricanes at all so the fears were real but with every drop in wind speed people let their guards down. Then it was downgraded just before landfall as it was falling apart as it climbed in latitude as hurricanes often do and then the damage began on a historic, major level as it flooded communities, swamped subways, leveled trees and became a disaster that some areas along the coast 6 years later are just moving past. Many whole blocks were leveled, torn down and new subdivisions had to be rebuilt. Would people have left the Breezy Point area that was leveled by flood water and a fire at the height of the storm for safety if the emphasis on the dangers of Sandy were based on flooding damage and storm surge and less on wind especially in that part of the world? Maybe.

http://articles.latimes.com/2013/oct/29/nation/la-na-breezy-point-20131030

Not Cat 1 damage.

Again Hurricane Matthew.

A monster Major Hurricane in the Caribbean.

Weakens as it climbs North.

But the damage was Major.

So what is the answer?

Is the problem the scale?

Is the problem the media?

Is the problem at the NHC?

Who and what is the real problem?

Ignorance or denial?

Every area has it's own unique concerns. In Miami, except at the coast where flooding is a problem from storm surge, wind is a huge concern if people do not board up their homes and coconuts or roof shingles go flying in the wind shattering windows not boarded up and once the wind gets into a house it does obscene things. Wind tunneling through skyscrapers does it seem huge damage even when people were told their windows were hurricane proof. While only a Category 2 Hurricane, after being downgraded from Category 5 in the Caribbean, Wilma wiped out the power grid in the Miami area, smashed windows said to be "hurricane proof" and walloped the general South Florida area badly for "only a Category 2 Hurricane" as people complained for weeks waiting for power to come back. Some areas had Category 1 winds yet the whole power grid went out with substation problems and poorly maintained lines prior to the hurricane.

What is the answer?

I don't know.

The Saffir - Simpson Scale is a good one.

The old Beaufort Wind Scale is great.

I think the cone sucks personally.

Sorry... but 38 people died.

The cone did not convey the real dangers.

Again the main page at the NHC...

..should be split with other graphics perhaps?

They are trying so hard to add warnings.

Storm surge was added after Sandy...

The earliest arrival of winds was added.

But the media just shows the cone.

The media just talks about wind speed.

Category 2... WOW ... MAJOR CANE CAT 3

Downgraded to a Cat 1.

What is the answer?

Hope we figure it out.

38 people died at the last count.

Many injured severely.

People homeless from floods.

As I said in my blog before...

The flooding in Mitch was not when she was a Cat 5!

Mitch stalled as a Tropical Storm and people died.

This happens all the time.

We need to get better at warning the public.

That starts at the NHC.

The MEDIA is a huge part of the problem.

And I mean mainstream media.

People like Mike on Facebook spoke on this.

I wrote on it.

The newspapers and TV media needs to change.

Just my thoughts.

Here are some thoughts from online .

Showing this one again on purpose.

I love Spectrum Weather.

Sorry but I don't feel that threat was conveyed well.

With the cone showed below.

We need to find the answer.

Because it will save lives.

Any lives saved are worth it.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Kinston is far inland.

Not sure if it was in the cone.

Doubt it was in the cone.

But the cone went S into South Carolina.

The flood waters inland rose....

Lumberton, Kinston so many communities.

Dillion, South Carolina.

If the audio doesn't work turn it to mute.

It's currently live.

Read the comments.

Not on the coast.

But it floods.

Far from where Florence turned S and went down to South Carolina.

Far from Wilmington NC where it made landfall.