Hurricane Harbor: Invest 94L in the Caribbean. Circle in the Carib 40% Orange Today. Hurricane Hazel Anniversary. Cat 4 Hurricane in October in the Carolinas All The Way Into Maine. Hurricane Matthew and The Johnston Flood Discussion. Reminder to Give Charity as $$$ is Needed in Hard Hit Areas. Thank You.

Yes there is something in the Caribbean again.

It's name today is Invest 94L.

It's being studied for possible formation.

Some models try to take it North I'm not gonna lie.
But many take it into the Pacific...

..after more heavy rains for Central America.

Invest 94L shown below from the NRL.

Models from www.flhurricane.com

I can't discount one of those west bound waves...

...doesn't end up making trouble down the road.

Not today... but if it hits the right spot.

Models are not hot...

...but I watch just the same.

Invest 94L in the Carib.

A low riding wave in the Atlantic.

The tropics today show us an orange for Fall 40% circle in the Caribbean. We spoke about this last week that it was very possible after Hurricane Michael was long gone low pressure would try to form in what is a climo favored area in the SW Caribbean in October. There is no voodoo here going on, it's where the tropics are usually active in October and the pattern this year makes it possible for another storm to form. It's also worth noting ironically the MDR is finally warming up and there are several healthy tropical waves moving Westbound towards the Caribbean as I type this post. This year is unique in that the EPAC is still going strong in October so perhaps it will go there vs up into the Gulf of Mexico. Time will tell. Just watching today. And, the warm water in the MDR and along the East Coast makes it a priority to keep watching the tropics into November this year.

Note how Dabuh tracks the waves.

He explains the set up that usually develops storms there.

You don't need to speak Spanish to understand the one below.

They are not Invests they are waves and they are numbered.

And they are watched and studied.

Fronts often stall out off the East coast so we watch there too.

Cranky explains with great maps.

Snow and storms.

October it has it all.

Sadly it also has Santana Winds and Fires as well.

But this is about the tropics today.

I lived in California a long time...

..October always makes me remember Santana Winds.

Mike's traveling back to Florida he is seeing up close and personal..

...the damage from Hurricane Michael.

Knowing him as I do he will talk on this in depth.

It's humbling to see that sort of damage.

Now for some Hurricane History as today is a huge milestone in Hurricane History as it's the anniversary the strongest hurricanes to slam into the Carolinas and in the middle of October yet. Maybe Global Warming started back decades ago or maybe we don't have historic records of hurricanes that made landfall in the Carolinas in October during the Crusades or the Roman Empire or the days when the Vikings were coming to America before the English ever came here. History is the long, long, long term study of life on our planet and when it comes to weather history other than odd scribbles we can't totally decipher on cave walls in Spain we don't really have reliable information before the middle of the 1800s. Seafaring explorers and pirates kept some records and Columbus wrote about an out of season Hurricane and he knew the difference between a Gale in the Winter and a Cyclonic system; he once used knowledge of an soon to happen eclipse to get out of being a victim in the Caribbean. Old time seafaring people knew more than when we give them credit for without satellite imagery, the ever maligned GFS or highly touted EURO and they knew storms.

https://www.space.com/27412-christopher-columbus-lunar-eclipse.html

They say history repeats and in truth it repeats often. Matthew was like the second coming of Hazel except it was kinder and pulled away from the coast rather than plowing far inland. It also made landfall as a shadow of it's former self intensity wise but it still packed a huge punch.

Compare the track to Matthew below.

Hard to believe two storms could have such similar tracks.

But then in 1954 and 1955 six storms had similar tracks.

1954 and 1955 were horrific, legendary years in Hurricane History in modern times along the East Coast of North America. Six hurricanes in two years took aim at OBX that juts out into the Atlantic seeming to scream down to the West Indies "Hit me with your best shot, fire away" and Mother Nature did on a regular basis.... but six in two years? Those charts above look similar but they are two different years that aimed cyclonic fury at the Carolinas and the Eastern seaboard. I'm guessing the water was unusually warm along the Eastern Seaboard as it has been this year to maintain that sort of energy that far North.

Actually Hurricane Hazel caught that front and went straight to Canada.

The pictures below are from Wilson, NC

Note how far inland Wilson is....

Wilson is a charming town that was once one of the capitals of tobacco country; the County Seat and it has grand old buildings that hint at it's history back in the day. I could show you pictures from Raleigh but I like this pictures, the pictures from Raleigh look the same. I spent some time at the Wilson Public Library talking to the man in charge of the history room and he showed me pictures and told me stories and he made it clear that in "our lifetime" no hurricane did what Hurricane Hazel did to towns far inland. Yes, Hugo hit Charlotte and yes Fran hit Raleigh but according to him no hurricane round these parts did the damage or had the fury far inland as Hazel did in 1954.

Whole books shown above have been written just about Hurricane Hazel that raced North to catch a cold front in Mid October the same way Hurricane Michael did early this month and Hazel made landfall as a Category 4 much further North than Michael delivering hurricane force winds far into the interior part of North Carolina and parts of the Eastern Seaboard. A good blog post from Wilson explaining Hazel in their own words.

https://wilsoncountylocalhistorylibrary.wordpress.com/2014/01/30/hurricane-hazel-in-wilson-1954/ Wilson is a beautiful, inland town in North Carolina but the damage was what you usually see along the coastline.

Obviously either SAL or lower water temps....

... in the MDR halted action further East.

Looking at the 1954 hurricane season again you will notice one thing about it, a lack of deep MDR action or CV Hurricanes. They seem to form further West and thrive further North than most years. I want to make this clear I am not denying concerns on Global Warming but it's not a basket you can toss everything into or something to blame when history is just repeating. In general we have barely had strong hurricanes over the last decade or two in comparison to the 1920s, 1940s through the 1960s. The last two years have been a throwback to the old days for whatever reason, but if you are going to blame Global Warming you have to explain why we had a lack of landfalling strong hurricanes for a long while before the tropics became active again suddenly and you can't just blame it on El Nino as Andrew and Betsy were El Nino years. I'm sure there's a reason, there is always a reason.

Another example is the back to back Flash Flood in Endicott City. When it comes to Endicott City and the recent flash flooding they have had I wonder how much development of the area has made the flash flooding worse. Easy to blame that on Global Warming but in truth it has become a popular area outside Baltimore and the construction in that area could seriously have made a bad situation worse. It's an example where "MAN" has built up areas beyond the ability the topography has to maintain the flow of water in areas where it's probable if they knew then what they knew now they would not have built it there but somewhere else nearby. In those days cities needed a river and you built near the river and when it flooded, you buried the dead, rebuilt and prayed it wouldn't flood again. We know more now and yet we keep building in areas not meant to maintain such growth.

So.......... know......... hurricanes have always happened in October even Category four hurricanes and flash floods have always happened when cities were built near the river in narrow canyons where the ground below could not absorb any of the water. Recently I learned something I never knew about a historic flood in America. This is a blog worth reading and again man (I use the word collectively) changed nature for their own needs and greed and the outcome was horrific using the Michael adjective of the month. Some of the world's wealthiest men were involved with a hunting and fishing club and they made adjustments to a nearby dam and that sadly led to one of the Nation's worst "natural disasters" that killed over 2,200 people.

"The club did engage in periodic maintenance of the dam, but made some harmful modifications to it. They installed fish screens across the spillway to keep the expensive game fish from escaping, which had the unfortunate effect of capturing debris and keeping the spillway from draining the lake’s overflow. They also lowered the dam by a few feet in order to make it possible for two carriages to pass at the same time, so the dam was only about four feet higher than the spillway. The club never reinstalled the drainage pipes so that the reservoir could be drained."

https://www.jaha.org/attractions/johnstown-flood-museum/flood-history/the-club-and-the-dam/

I'm sure there was no intent to cause a flood.

Ignorance and a bit of greed caused the flood.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johnstown_Flood

From the link above.

"The dam broke after several days of extremely heavy rainfall, releasing 14.55 million cubic meters of water.^[4] With a volumetric flow rate that temporarily equaled the average flow rate of the Mississippi River,^[5] 2,209 people,^[6] according to one account, lost their lives, and the flood accounted for $17 million of damage (about $463 million in 2017 dollars^[3]).

The American Red Cross, led by Clara Barton and with 50 volunteers, undertook a major disaster relief effort.^[7] "

My last comment here is to give money to the Red Cross www.redcross.org and the reason why is simple. They know from experience what people there need and they have the means to get it into the areas to help the most people possible. There are many good charities. I have given Chabad of Tallahassee charity money for years as I know them as some of my children have lived in the area and I know their work well. They are helping people there survive the aftermath of Michael in the Panhandle. https://www.chabadtallahassee.com/

https://www.chabadtallahassee.com/templates

/articlecco_cdo/aid/4162273/jewish/Hurricane-Relief.htm

Please read the story and though it's run by a Jewish group they help "people" in need whenever they can as do most charities who do awesome work. The act of charity is one of the biggest mitzvos (good deeds) you can do and if you have the ability to volunteer and work with a group, a Church or the Red Cross more power to you as it takes a village to rebuild our villages sometimes.

If you know a good charity or organization that is raising money for people in that area then I suggest you research them well to make sure they have the ability and the network to get the job done and if so please donate and possibly volunteer to help them yourselves. So much needs to be done and it will need to be done for months... not just weeks as it will take a long time for the region to rebuild. Not only is it compelling to see convoys of power trucks moving into the area, it's also humbling and compelling to see people in vans bringing baby goods such as diapers or pet food into a stricken area from far away. I saw that after Irma... as we drove South back to Miami next to several vans filled with boxes of diapers on their way to help from New England. God Bless Them.

The Hurricane City is not over and sometimes patterns repeat and it is possible areas that were affected so far could be impacted again. I am not saying it will happen but models show the possibility and the pattern itself lends itself to a repetitive pattern in the Gulf of Mexico and along the East Coast be it a hurricane or a hybrid sort of storm coming together with a front. With fronts on the move concerns are still there but they evole into other set ups that bring trouble both tropical and weather wise.

The real "Perfect Storm" was Hurricane Grace joining together with other weather features to turn into what really was the "Perfect Storm" not just a book and a movie. Watch the video from TWC on how Jim Cantore and the legendary much missed John Hope covered this historic, complex storm.