Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, October 08, 2018

UPDATED Midnight! Hurricane Michael Stronger. Moving Faster.. What Kind of Hurricane Will It Be? Cat 1? Cat 2? Cat 3? NHC SAYS CAT 3 - MAJOR HURRICANE EXPECTED -FAST MOVING Hurricane Becomes FAST Moving Tropical Storm. Stay on Top of YOUR LOCAL EXPERTS. Wind Not Just Rain is the Problem With Michael.

11 PM.
Why you still up?
I know... intensifying hurricane.
Forecast to be Cat 3 Major Cane.

Cone pretty much the same.
Wiggles often by smallest degrees.

NHC Discussion below.
Extremely honest and well written.
"defies traditional logic"
Intensifying under shear....
There it is below.
Eye popping out.

Another view.
Once past the tip of the Yucatan.
This happens ....
Land interaction diminishes.
We see what it's got there.
Still close to land.
Shear there...
Hasn't hit the warmer water yet either.

Expected to be 120 MPH in 36 Hours.
Expected to be 100 MPH tomorrow.

Excellent graphic below.
Estimated rain totals as of tonight.
Florida through the Carolinas.

Again please use this feature from the NHC if you need.
Someone asked about evacuating tonight.

Just use it as you would a zoom map. You can find exactly where you are in relation to the watches and warnings. The specifics pop up and give you incredibly accurate information.  

Satellite imagery below showing the CDO... eye forming, structure and the cone. Be safe.

Know the cone will wiggle back a bit.
Model runs tomorrow will have good data.
So far the models have been in agreement.
Again the cone is for WIND.
Cone is for EYE.
Weather impacts are outside the cone.
Storm surge will be everywhere far from the eye.
Flooding, tornadoes and power outages.

Plan accordingly.
If you have not read this earlier...
Some good model discussion.
Good information on places in the path of Michael.

Keep reading.
Or get some sleep ;)

* * * 

8 PM Eastern Standard Time

Note moving 12 MPH NORTH now.

Good news.
Track seems set in stone.

Impressive especially in the short term.
Near landfall pretty tightly clustered.
Always that one odd ball model.

Cone from the NHC is good.
A few people have asked me what I think.
I think it's a good cone.

Intensity forecast is questionable.
It has an opportunity in the GOM... really strengthen.

Big danger is power outages.
Over a large region.

Models, let's look at the models.
3 Models.

Note GFS has L up near Minnesota NNW of Michael.
High in place.

Euro has the L near Iowa.
NNW of Michael.
 971 vs 962 mb.
High anchored ..a bit larger.

Has the L Iowa/MN border NNW of Michael.
High anchored.

Some very subtle differences but rare to get that much agreement.

This is the location where Michael should shrive.
Up in the middle of the GOM.
Away from land interaction.
Some drier air to the West.
More weather to the East.
This is where he should pull it together.

People keep asking me what I think.
I think the NHC is doing a good job.
A bit concerned on something but...
...can't figure out what.
I feel like we are missing something.

On the a red arrow at a beautiful beach.
 St. George Island.
I mention this as I was there in 2017.
It's typical of the beach communities.
You have to cross the bridge... 
..a tall, big bridge.
And then you are on a small barrier island.
Feels like Carolina but it's in Florida.
People go to be together....
... vacation and hang out.
To get married.

There's a lighthouse.
There's always a lighthouse.
My son Moe got married on the beach.
Twice actually...
once in Miami then once up there.
Kristin is from there....
They waited to do the N FL wedding.
You know why????
She wanted to make sure Hurricane Season was over.
A Florida girl knows this is a thing....
Actually she's a FSU fan.
Those beaches are Tallahassee's beaches.

With the lighthouse as the backdrop.
On the beach at sunset.
Me and my girls.
My daughter Rivky on the left.
My daughter-in-law Kristin on the right.

Judah my Grandson who LOVES Hurricanes...
"cause who wouldn't??"
With his Step Mother.

It's a beautiful beach.
They all are up there.

But really I wanted to say I got a real feel ...
...for the Panhandle beaches.
My grandma grew up going to those beaches.
Her older sister lived in Quincy Florida...
....they'd go down to the beaches to visit.

The eye may go left of St. George Island.
But the storm surge should pile in there good.
The eye could go on either side.
or.....hit it dead on.
Time will tell.
Many of the structures are built up high..
They are used to storm surge there.

Long causeway...

Narrow Beach

Beach homes.

Beach homes up on stilts.
Panama City is a bigger town.
More populated.
St. George Island like Emerald Isle in NC
Or some beach in Texas.

On a sunny day WOW.

Paradise found....
sometimes hurricanes find it too.

Today if you Google Destin, FL
Google tells you there is a Hurricane Warning.

What a world we live in.
100 years ago no one knew they were coming...

A nice video.
It could be any beach up there...
Oh...I'm in Carolina.
It's a beach down there.
Miami brain.

Do what you got to do and prepare.
Prepare along the coast.
Prepare inland for wind damage, power outages.
Prepare in Georgia and Carolinas ...
Strong winds will bring trees down.

I meant to update earlier.
I wasn't feeling well.
I'm feeling better now.
Hurricane Warnings.
Major Hurricane on the way...
Be Hurricane Strong.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

& & &

Cuba is now dealing with this Hurricane.
East Tip of Cuba moving towards Florida Keys.
Important to remember it is right sided.

 Note it has a tail forming.
But the tail is right heavy.
Some of the weather to the SW of the center is strong.
Let it lift up into the GOM ....'s still wrapping up.
And the whole mass of weather is moving N.....

I have nothing to add as it's a watch and  wait set up but in this case we are watching and waiting to see how well Hurricane Michael wraps up and if it properly aligns and is well stacked then watch out. Major Hurricane status is on the table and the NHC put it there not me. The front is still there. Shear is there but it seems to ignore the shear and does it's thing much the way Florence did several times in it's history. Shear is a killer, yet sometimes storms seem to learn how to work around it. The moisture is already being pulled North across Florida and into Georgia. Light misty clouds are moving into the Carolinas far ahead of the storm. And the water is rising along the coast in many cities far from the storm and not directly in the cone. Speaking of the cone. I have a question.

Why can't the NHC put the CONE....
Directly OVER this satellite image?

It would make the inherent dangers easier to see.
It wouldn't detract from the cone.
But define the dangers inside the cone.
And the dangers outside the cone.

The image below is what it could look like.

No I didn't make that graphic. 
It's from a great site.
It has many overlays.
Now you see the whole story.
It's a great site.


You can check pressures. 
You can check wind shear.
Link below.

Again please check with your local NWS.


Stay tuned. 
Full update after the 5 PM ...
...or if something big change.

Eye may pop out soon...


Discussion from NHC explains why.

They also explain why...
NHC expects Michael to be a Major Hurricane.

Again it remains a TS traveling across the East Coat.
Did I say East?
Not just SE...
Refer to maps below.

Forecast wind speeds along the way.
Stays TS the whole way.
Oaks and pines come down in TS winds.
They don't bend like palm trees.
More on that later.

Compare and Contrast with the 5 AM below.

Rainfall Graphics.

WIND Graphics.
Due to fast forward speed this weakens slowly.

Use the link to check your specific area.

Compare the new cone with the old one below.
Hurricane Watches were OUT Along the N FL coast.
Compare N contrast how far S the TS watches warnings go.
All the way down to Anna Maria Island near Tampa Bay.

New cone will be at the top after 11 AM.
Leaving this here so you can...
Compare and contrast.

To quote a song...
"The moment I wake up"
Ends with ...
I say a little prayer people pay attention.
Okay not same lyrics but you get the idea.
Mike does get the word out and I love that.

My concern here is a fast moving hurricane that could become a Major Hurricane before landfall but more so is moving so fast that it stays a Tropical Storm way inland over a large region as it's cruising fast enough that it could audition for NASCAR if you believe some of the models. And one day it can be a strong Cat 1 and less than 24 hours it's knocking at landfall at Major Hurricane strength and people start explaining why they didn't evacuate or prepare. In truth weather is fluid, models make predictions but they respond to changes in the hurricane at every model run and then it's up to the NHC to decide when or if they will adjust the track. So it's important to pay attention and more so pay attention to your local weather people. To put it simply they have your back, the TWC tries to cover the general area and yet your local weather people know your area and it's main concerns. Mike's Spaghetti Model's Lives Updates on Facebook are a great place to go also and note currently over 6,000 people are watching Live as he goes over a wide variety of valuable information. It's worth noting he actually goes back and reads through the comments so he get's a good feeling for what people want to know.

And as Mike said just now it blows him away that people are asking for basic information from the Panhandle from Florida because if he lived there he would already be "freaking out" and that is the beauty of Mike he is honest with his thoughts, emotions and always directs people to the NHC for the best information. October is prime time in Florida for hurricane season and yet he is right people have this attitude that after you get one big Major Hurricane on the East Coast and school starts and it's officially Fall they get a feeling "hurricane season is over" and it's NOT. In fact Florida gets affected most in October, it gets threatened all season long but you get something forming down in the Caribbean as we have been predicting it moves up into the Gulf of Mexico and in October the fronts start to move and dip and they connect and it's the real deal.

Example of "local people" who know your area best other than the NWS office are shown below:

In Raleigh Spectrum News has a local news station.
They show the weather EVERY TEN MINUTES.
They go live for breaking weather events.
You can't get better than that.
We had Spectrum.... 
... we switched to ATT.
I was annoyed about losing the weather updates.
.... it but figured it's worth a try.
We switched back fast.
Now I take those invites from ATT...
...and tear them up into itsy bitsy pieces.

The graph above shows the concerns for winds.
Everyone is showing the concern for rain.
They did too but few are talking about wind.

In Miami the big palm trees bend in the hurricane wind, everyone knows that. We do have decorative trees that are shredded in the wind, but they are more like ornamental bushes vs large, huge trees. From around Tampa Bay North up through Tallahassee and Jacksonville there are more and more huge oak trees and tall pines and neither pines nor oaks sway in the tropical breeze; they break, snap and come booming down onto homes or next to homes. As Michael is expected to stay at Tropical Storm Strength the whole way across the SE on it's rush towards the Atlantic Ocean moving possibly 25 mph or faster forward speed you will see trees come down, power goes and and it may be very locally as one area gets stronger wind and gusts or isolated tornadoes. This could happen to you if you live near pines, oaks or poplar trees that reach high up into the sky and come slamming, booming down fast in even relatively weak wind but steady wind. Especially with trees that were shaken up by Florence and aren't in the healthiest condition.

Nuff Said.

Chick in the Sandhills knows weather in this area well.
Every area has someone who knows the area well.
Listen to them, pay attention.
Don't listen to rumors.

He's talking on the rain.
If all goes as planned....
The rain is there but it's like:
"throwing a bucket of water out of the window of a moving car"
The wind could be the real surprise.

A good App to put on your phone is shown below.

They update fast and keep you very informed.

Cantore on air and on Twitter is "there'
He does a great job of communicating.

Despite the strong shear....
Michael is there.
You have to worry and be alert on that type of storm.
Shear would have killed off other storms.
The fact that it did not shows it's tenacity.

Recon found strong winds and low pressure.
Note what Levi Cowan said below.

The CORE of this storm needs some work still.
Again as it moves away from the Yucatan.
Up into the GOM... will find it's groove.
Could that groove be a Cat 2 or Cat 3?
Time will tell. 
Keep watching.

Timing is everything and uncertain.
The track moves back and forth a bit.
Each swing gets closer together.
Tomorrow the cone will be more narrow.
Watches and warnings from NWS are expanding.

And those models....

There they are... 
Then a bend.
Will the bend take it to the Big Bend of Florida?
Maybe further to the West...
...but the weather SLAMS into the Big Bend.
Storm surge would be strong.
Because it's N of Tampa it pulls water into Tampa Bay.
Tampa Bay will be far away....
...but as the Center cruises N and makes landfall.
Storm surge is an issue all the way South to Tampa Bay.
Models flirting with Major Hurricane.
Stay tuned.

Updating all day with new information at the top.
I posted a lot of online information today.
I will go longer on discussion and my thoughts later.
So stay tuned, check back often and ....
...check with your local authorities.
Local TV Channels.
Local Wxr Ppl on Twitter.
Or whatever social media you use.
Do NOT go by Aunt Martha on Facebook...
..who is repeating rumors.
Unless Aunt Martha knows meteorology.
Stick with the authorities.

This is the NHC estimate of earliest possible dangers.
Winds mostly but you get the idea.
Are you in THIS CONE?
If so read part 2 of the my bottom line below.
Oh flirts with Long Island and NYC.
Some uncertainty down the road.
Yet it will be moving fastest at that point.

My bottom line again is two part... 
1. Landfall and storm surge. Where and how strong. 
If you live near the coast use this link.

2. As it moves inland maintaining TS winds due to it's fast forward speed.

The first concern is immediate and in your face over a specific area the NHC warns for...
The second concern is over a huge large area affecting many people told to pay attention to the NWS.
This is why the NHC has taken to linking at the top of their page to the local NWS in the cone.
Again weather happens far from the cone. Raleigh was not in the cone when that Pine Tree and all it's pine cones came slamming down inches from the house. 

So check the NWS in Atlanta, Columbia, Charlotte.
Charleston, Raleigh, Richmond.
You get the idea.

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