Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, October 02, 2018

Tropics Tuesday Night. Leslie Knocking on Hurricane Strength Door and Caribbean System I've Spoken On Now Has a 30% Chance of Developing. The Specifics Need to be Ironed Out.

Leslie in the top right.
Caribbean Trouble bottom left.
Leslie almost a hurricane.
Caribbean Trouble has a look..
Also maintains strong convection.
Stronger than Leslie...
...however Leslie is organized.
And as predicated may be a Hurricane tomorrow.

30% in 5 days.
Trust me it has higher chances in the 7 day.
This is the area I have been speaking on for days.
Models are on board.
Convection showed up.
Right place at the right time.
Prime location for an October storm.

The image below shows Leslie well.

These are the winds.
Leslie has nice structure.
Once below that 30 N latitude....
...they get a hurricane attitude.

In about a week a new storm will own the map.
Most likely.
Maybe even two.
Some strange scenarios.
Full update Wednesday morning.

Okay. I know. You want more.

These are some thoughts around the Web.
Twitter in particular.

Love this Tweet.
Simple and sweet.
Or maybe spicy.
We may have trouble down the road.

Just one model image.
So many images.
So many models.
So many possibilities.

This Tweet below shows what I mean.
Models hitting every part of the SE coast.

Is this a hurricane or a tropical storm?
Is this a GOM crossover FL up the coast?
Or NE into the Bahamas?
Where is not important right now.
What is important.
Strong model support for tropical trouble.

Jim tends to be conservative.
As he said "once Leslie gets out of the way"
"be alert"

And as DaDaBuh says...
always visit the NHC for the official forecast.

Somewhere in this box...
...something forms.
Don't stare at the colored dots.
Note the overall shape.

Anywhere in that map.
Currently it's still setting the stage phase.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter.

Ps... Names to remember:

Because it's 2018...
Joaquin worth remembering.

Don't focus on Sandy and Matthew.
Something pulls up out of the Caribbean.
Typical October set up.

Stay tuned.


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