Tropical World. Watching Caribbean For a Possible System... Models Showing What We Have Been Talking About. Give Thanks the Tropics Are Quiet Today. They Won't Stay Quiet. October M Storms.

Many people think this is my world.

It's our world.

From June 1st to November 30th...

...it's a view I choose to view often.

Watching the tropics.

The Hurricane Season.

October often brings storms out of the Caribbean.

Sometimes hurricanes form from dead fronts.

Anything can happen in October.

November gets a bit flakey.

Suddenly a storm in the deep Caribbean...

...slices across the basin moving ENE.

The 1st 10 days of October are dangerous.

Today nothing much is happening.

Leslie is there.

I am NOT going to talk about Leslie.

Just showing her.

Fully tropical currently.

Small kinks in the wind field in the Caribbean.

Remember that.

It's not a straight flow.

Note the image below.. only Leslie.

This will change.

Yellow and orange circles will pop up one day soon.

A look at the Caribbean shows us....

A tropical wave westbound mid Atlantic.

Remnants of Kirk in the Caribbean.

Moisture in the Gulf of Mexico.

Leslie out there...

Whether the remnants of Kirk....

...or the new wave in the Atlantic provide the spark.

Something is forecast to light up our lives soon.

Coming out of the Caribbean.

Kirk so far....

His "final" graphic.

Is it final?

Maybe. 

I'm not sold one way or the other.

But til the last rain shower is gone for more than 24 hours.

I'm watching it.

From a friend online.

He's good at sniffing out tropical trouble.

Even before the models show it.

Actually many of us do.

It's basic meteorology more than modeling.

But when the models see it ...

..everyone wants to see the models.

He speaks on this concept often.

It's actually well put.

There is a great map on Cranky's blog shown below.

You see here what I am talking about.

You have tropical waves... 

You have an area you have to watch.

Fronts start pushing down.

The set up screams "something tropical spins up"

Where?

When?

Somewhere in that box.

Note the map below.

Water temperatures.

High. Still high along the East Coast.

Not out where Leslie is spinning.

But along the coast red hot.

This is not a good set up.

Something may form out there and it's very possible it will but where will it go? I don't know. Telling you that plain and simple, but I'm pretty sure by October 4th I will know and I'll go long on discussion. Remember Wilma? Remember Mitch? Remember Matthew? The list goes on and on. There is a reason we watch the Caribbean for the M storm and in the super crazy hyper year of 2005 you flip the M to a W and you get the same system just too many letters down the road in that very busy year. There is a reason North Carolina fears storms that start with F .. Fran, Floyd, Florence and there is a reason people in Florida and Cuba and the Bahamas watch the deep Caribbean when in an average busy year we get down to the M storm in early October. Michael is the next named storm. IF Michael gets anywhere near that oceanic fuel along the East Coast we could have a serious problem. That's a real IF but it's a IF that should make you stay alert and not eat up all the Twinkies in your Hurricane Supplies just yet.

In Raleigh today the News and Observer put out a special section on Hurricane Florence. I knew they would and I knew it would remind me of Hurricane Andrew and it did. But mostly I wonder if the house where the sweet Irish man tends the garden every summer filled with many flowers and varieties of sunflowers will be there next summer. Will someone tear down the house and build a new larger building or will life go on a little longer the way for those of us who drive in from Raleigh, park the car near the house and walk over to the beach by Johnnie Mercer Pier. Routines and traditions are so important to us in this part of the world.

I'll update later today on this.

My world is large.

I have kids in England, Israel and Canada traveling.

I'm watching them online ... virtually traveling with them.

This week is a big Jewish Holiday.

Some days I'm online.

Some days I'm off.

My son backstage with Benny Friedman.

They have worked together for a long time.

Watching him in concert in Jerusalem.

As my world turns.

Do a good deed today ...

..say Thank you to someone.

Be kind.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

I'll update later today.

Probably during the Carolina Panthers Game.

#keeppounding.

Ps.... Toda means Thank You!

Tell someone Thank You today.

I got to watch this video as it was being put together.

One of my favorite songs and videos.

Toda!