Kirk. TD11 Expected to Be Gone Soon. Leslie Out There Waiting for Her Name. Invests 98L Invest 90L

I would venture to say that Kirk is stronger than 40 MPH.

I also think for now Kirk will take the South side of the Cone.

If Kirk can stay South he has a better chance of down the road.

Note the discussion.

These are the salient points to me.

Note discussion of the "large central Atlantic trough"

Nice name.... it's Invest 90L

You can read the discussion below for yourself. Again watch how Kirk evolves against the actual forecast. Unless an eye pops out they may be slow to upgrade Kirk to a stronger status out in the middle of nowhere beyond the recon stage and just going by other methods of evaluation. Kirk is a fast mover. Everything is timing and where Kirk is in relation to the "large central Atlantic trough" as it's strengthening will tell the tale in the end. That "large central Atlantic trough" may get a real name down the road and it may kill everything in it's path as it is going to suck up all the energy of everything nearby including possibly Invest 98L depending on which model you are looking at ...at any given time. Models change always remember that.

Many of the islands are in the wind probs. If it stays together and out performs the models that are in love with the "large central Atlantic trough" (oh Lord give it a name please) then we will have a different story to tell than what is being talked about currently. My gut feeling is the Southern islands should pay attention. Let's be clear IF this develops it would take the North part of the cone. If it stays weaker, cruises along and can't get it's act together it's going to get further West past Invest 90L's very long reach.

The NHC says TD 11 is a goner so let's not go into much discussion on it. I'm not convinced Kirk is a goner, but as I said we will know eventually won't we? It's far out there and not threatening anything now. It's big and looks strong. TD 11 doesn't look like it will be much more of a burp in Kirk's path.

The big question marks are the two upper latitude Invests.

Look at them.

The huge bit swirl with the long name aka Invest 90L

The small twin size copy of 90L aka 98L.

Remember 98L has DNA from Florence.

That would mean in theory....

...should 90L absorb 98L

Then 90L would get DNA from Florence.

I'd say "who cares?"

But in a world where Ancestry is making a fortune.

Obviously a lot of people care.

I care.

Regarding this graphic above.

I can't. I just can't.

Ever drive in Miami?

Obviously the forecasters at the NHC do...

...so this seems totally logical.

We have the Palmetto Expressway and I95.

The large Central Atlantic Whatever is at 70%

It has been at 70% for a while.

What are they waiting for?

It has a friend now dressed in yellow.

And the original Invest off the East Coast.

Can that one survive?

Models take it in different directions.

Some absorb it into the other.

Stay tuned.

This is a slow moving Soap Opera.

I will be back with a full blog on Tuesday evening as I'll be on vacation for the Sukkos holiday somewhere cooler than Raleigh and probably rainy. My Sukkoth won't have palm fronds and not sure what it will be like but I'll know more tonight. I will most likely update this blog later today especially if things change. So please check back later Sunday. Always fun tracking the tropics from the road.

https://www.chabad.org/library/article_cdo/aid/4784/jewish/What-Is-Sukkot.htm

As always please be very OCD about the tropics as I know you are and follow all the yellow, red and orange areas on www.spaghettimodels.com he has the models and the maps and the graphs and it's site filled with the most links and areas where you can get lost for days. 

Yes I buy make up and shoes  often.

Ignore that...

All the info is there.

By the time I do a long update Tuesday...

We will know more about Kirk...

Leslie and possibly the M storm.

Being honest this is a 2 piece harmony song.

On one level we had a strong Tropical Storm named Kirk.

It's doing what they do this time of year they cruise West.

We have a system in the Atlantic forecast to fill up the Atlantic.

HUGE WIND PRESSURE GRADIENT

It will create shear for other storms.

Then there is the last part ...IE "Down the Road"

Something should become a problem down the road.

Whether it's Kirk or another wave.

Whether it's Kirk or the gyre in the GOM/Carib.

Maybe something forms near the Yucatan.

Pieces of DNA from TD11?

Anything is possible.

But something should form in a week to ten days.

That is the real problem.

Not all the Xs and Ox on the NHC page.

The big Central Atlantic Gyre is forecast...

...to stay in the Atlantic.

Let's see if that forecast verifies.

Kirk really is an unknown.

And I'd venture to say there is another unknown.

Keep watching.

Besos BobbiStorm.

Ps...if there are typos and there probably are...

Sorry I'm supposed to be getting dressed and packing.

For the next few days.

It's all a big maybe.