UPDATED! 5 PM. Death Toll Rises to 5 from Florence... . Cajun Navy Doing Water Rescues in New Bern. Hurricane Florence Makes Landfall .. Moving Slowly Inland. Raining Now in Raleigh. New Bern Storm Surge Flooding 10 Feet. Rescues Ongoing. Wilmington Area Takes the Brunt of Florence. Where Does She Go Next? And In the End... NY LI SNE and Canada. Flash Flood Warnings. Tornado Warnings

5 PM.

"CATASTROPHIC FRESHWATER FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA...

This is the real problem with Florence.

Yes New Bern flooded ...

..Yes Wrightsville Beach took it hard.

And yes Wilmington was hit hard.

Now the real concern is the fresh water flooding.

If the forecast holds and it rains for days......

...while she moves slowly westward at 3 MPH..

Torrential rains will pound parts of NC/SC for days.

IF so the rivers will rise... 

..and there will be worse flooding than Matthew.

So I want to take you back to another M Hurricane.

Hurricane Mitch was huge and a Cat 5.

Late season hurricane in the Caribbean.

That happens, hopefully won't happen this year.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Mitch

The flooding that claimed the huge loss of life..

..was from inland flooding when he was a TS.

Inland as a Tropical Storm he moved barely at all.

Torrential rain, hills, mudslides, people died.

But this happened when he was a TS not a Cat 5.

So just because Florence is a TS... 

...don't let your guard down inland.

3 MPH...that's a crawl basically.

And as the topography rises inland.

Rains increase and floods become worse.

So stay vigilant.

Also we have tornado warnings currently.

And that should continue all night.

And tomorrow.

Doesn't look much different does it.

Good symmetry!

Good form.

Has a strong core.

Lower winds.

Lots of rain.

Stay tuned....

Leaving the video at the top.

As few waves have gone so far...

...at a high latitude approach to NC.

Amazing video really.

Came on just to share it.

Though I was thinking on posting this below.

Amazing ride and it's not over.

Besos BobbiStorm.

@bobbistorm on Twitter.

I'll update tomorrow evening.

For now going to take a rest.

And we will see what we will see!

Stay safe.

3 people died so far.

I heard 5 but waiting for confirmation.

By that time it could be higher.

Many are being rescued and in shelters.

Praying the rain totals don't verfiy.

Prayer is good but prepare as needed for the worst.

Follow the advice of your local government officials.

West at 5.

Now WSW.

Keep watching.

Also raining in Myrtle Beach as well now.

Pouring heavy in Raleigh now.

A friend lost power nearby.

Tree hit a transformer.

People here really need to understand......

...this is a long term event.

If you don't see the rain you will.

Rivers are cresting.

Towns are flooding.

Cajun Navy in New Bern.

Are they awesome or what?

People helping people.

Orientation of the High Pressure...

...should keep her West bound.

Taking the top side of the Cone perhaps.

Time will tell... 

Big blue band over Raleigh now.

A Flash Flood Warning has been issued for our area.

I'm not in an area that usually floods.

It's very dark out... ominous.

Note www.spaghettimodels.com has great links.

Webcams to storm chasers.

Different areas.

 Know this is only beginning.
Water rescues going on now.

Such a beautiful image below.

Great image here... 

Blue Hurricane...

..crawling her way towards landfall.

You can see the "center" well on this image.

Winds picking up in Raleigh by the way.

We are all watching her general movement..

..carefully with our own priorities.

The images later this week will be flooding.

Water rescues. Tornado damage.

Etc...

Severe damage in Wilmington.

Shown below.

General gust info from NC

She is over land.

Moving very slowly.

Her wind field below.

If you are inside those 2 sets of grids.

You will feel her wind.

Official NHC at 11 AM

Then Updated at Noon.

I waited til Noon to see any changes.

Picking up some speed at 6 MPH.

I'd say she is going west by radar.

Her movement is iffy.

Cranky explains why...

..storms often stair step.

Vs moving in a direct line.

By the way there may be some trouble...

...in the GOM later on down the roead.

Will deal with that after Flo is gone.

Again the tropics are busy ... 

It's not over til it's really over.

Florence has finally made landfall.

Shows you even at 5 MPH you can make landfall ...

...as long as you just keep going you get there.

She made landfall just South of Wilmington.

A community known as Myrtle Grove.

Some video from online.

You may want to subscribe to them.

Awake and watching Florence both on satellite imagery and out the window. She's far away still down by the coast and she has done a good deal of damage in New Bern and on Wrightsville Beach and the associated small beach towns near Wrightsville; remember please that Wrightsville is Wilmington's beach so it's one area separated by a small inlet usually filled with sailboats.  New Bern had the 4th lowest barometer reading they have recorded and the storm surge that flooded parts of downtown was 10 feet at least. They are still dealing with Florence and we will get more exact information throughout the day. The eye slipped South of Wilmington and came ashore near Myrtle Grove which is the area known as Masonboro Inlet. The map is below so you can see where exactly that is but understand the eye is a very small part of a large Category 1 Hurricane still winding down from being a Major Hurricane. This is not to hype Florence, it's to explain it's a different beast from a long term tropical storm that finally attained hurricane force wind.

Myrtle Grove is a suburb of Wilmington.

Again it's the part of NC...

..that looks like it should be in SC.

I spoke on this a few posts back... 

The state borders are a bit squirrelly.

Next we have New Bern.

The Neuse and James River come together there.

It's an inland harbor surrounded by water and forests. 

Pirates loved it back in the day.

It was the capital of NC back in the day.

It brought us Pepsi Cola...

..and it's filled with historical places.

They had a historical storm surge from Florence.

Over ten feet of water came up the river.

As there are hills there the hills are dry.

The lower areas down by the river...

..were under 10 feet of water.

North Carolina has many inlets cities such as New Bern.

The water pushes up the river...

...it becomes compressed and rushes inland..

As the storm presses towards land.

New Bern was on the North side of the eye.

Therefore the storm surge was high there.

Kind of what I feared would happen did.

Obviously I love New Bern.

This is the area you saw going under water on TV.

Note two things about this video.

Even on a quiet day the wind always blows.

She did the video in front of the flag.

Very North Carolina.

If you have read a Nicholas Sparks book...

...he lives there and gains inspiration from it's beauty.

This is the coastline.

Cape Fear and Cape Lookout jut out into the ocean.

So now what you wonder?

Good question.

At 10 AM:

That's what the NHC said.

They also said it doesn't really have an eye.

So I find it an odd "headline" from them.

Either it does or doesn't?

It has a center....

... sure there is an eye there somewhere.

Now....

The water begins to move inland.

It's currently moving 

Big bullseye over the SC/NC border.

And note the rainfall moves North.

After it moves W or WSW it moves North.

And up into the Pennsylvania region.

PA has had problems with flooding all summer.

The rains will be felt up in New York.

I'm guessing Canada may feel some as well.

This weather drama is far from over.

A patch of winds over Long Island and SNE.

Think on that a bit.

So the storm moves West to WSW.

Then pulls North near the mountains.

MTNS = more flooding in small towns

Then once back over water..

..it comes back to life again.

That's the forecast for now.

Obviously it won't be a Major Hurricane.

It might barely become a Tropical Storm.

Who knows for sure...

But it will be heavy rain and strong wind.

It came from Africa.

It's as if Florence doesn't want to stop traveling.

Part of Ottawa is in the cone.

So far the NHC doing a good job.

She slowed...

She's moving generally west now.

Sort of South of West.

Maybe WSW then West.

Then eventually.......

She swings NW and speeds up.

I want to make it clear here that it's hard to really judge a hurricane by one scale or one set of statistics. Academics love to slice and dice the storm into facts and figures and debate it's strength from far away in their safe rooms staring at the computer endlessly watching every small change in the shape of the hurricane. I worked in Academia as I ran a library for Touro College in Miami Beach and I know what Academia is and it's a bit removed from the real world. A nice place for people to live and work where they can spend endless hours studying, researching and get paid for it while teaching only a few classes a semester if at all. It's kind of like Oz. Some people love it and it was a good job and I enjoyed it. Storm Chasers are out in the elements with the wind stinging their face, listening to the howl of the hurricane winds and getting sandblasted often by sand picked up from the beach and caught in the wind. It's wild and I've done that too though to be honest talking Tropical Storms and Category 1 hurricanes vs huge Major Hurricanes, as a mother I had responsibilities obviously. One of the windiest storms I was out in was a Tropical Storm that made landfall yet it's winds were nonstop unrelenting for a few hours. Sometimes you get a hurricane and the squalls spin around and come in bands, but no that storm was like being in a wind tunnel. Every storm is different. I've seen hurricanes that weren't as strong as many tropical storms I was in and hurricanes that were wet and caused flooding and others like Andrew raced through leaving barely any traces of rain. Hurricane Irene in Miami was all about the rain.

They keep telling me the rain is coming. I'll believe it when I see it. The weather almost always goes around Raleigh. The snowstorms slide by just to the North and hurricanes slide by to the South of Offshore by the Outer Banks. Time will tell. We have watches up of all kind from a tornado watch to a flash flood warning, as well as we are expecting some Tropical Storm force winds. It's very quiet here and then suddenly it isn't. It's dark and the clouds are moving by very fast and here and there the winds pick up and small twigs and branches from big oak trees go flying in the wind and then........it's quiet again. There are tornadoes in her bands, heavy rain that will come down over the next 48 hours. This is a slow motion disaster not a fast moving Major Hurricane, time will tell how bad it is and where and who gets the worst of the flooding. For now watching and I'll update throughout the day. It just got really dark outside and it's pouring in Raleigh. 

On quiet nice days in New Bern.