UPDATED!!! TD 8 and TD 9 Form, Invest 94L Develops & Florence is Looking Stronger...... Cone Moves to the WEST Targets the Carolinas and East Coast. FLORENCE. COMEDY. DRAMA. Tropical Meteorology Like a Wild Ride At Disney or the Greatest Show On Earth. Where's Helene and Isaac?
A lot to talk about today.
The yellow X is now Invest 94L
Tropical Depression 8 and 9 have formed.
Then we have Tropical Storm Florence...
...remnants of Gordon raining inland still.
With regard to Invest 94L
I want to make it clear.
I put this area up here to be highlighted this morning.
Because it has had an impact on Florence.
It may have an impact on Florence later.
It is now Invest 94L
Flo looks low doesn't she?
She is low.
24.8 North.
Basically due East of Miami.
I'm just using it as a point of reference.
You will hear people talk about the E/W flow.
Look at the WV Image above.
You see everything flows from 9 to 3 on the clock face.
East to West.
No big dips.
No diving cold fronts from Canada
You can see TDs 8 and 9 in the East Alantic.
General cloudiness off Carolinas and FL 94L
Florence center stage.
Discussion from the 5 PM Advisory.
Link to this product from the NHC below:
If you are in the cone....
...ramp up your ideas for the best plan.
Note if the wind probs move further inland...
...going to Florence SC or Fayetteville may not be a good idea.
If a watch goes up take it more seriously. ETC.
It is that simple and easy.
There are coastal US cities with wind probabilities now.
These will change with each advisory.
They are a good rule of thumb.
If your city is in the probs think on preparation.
Wes is my favorite Raleigh go to weather source on air.
Note Raleigh is watching Florence.
Wow that looks low doesn't it.
When you see the Bahamas near the cone.
Puts how low it is in perspective.
But it is forecast to turn ;)
It's a forecast.
It's what we are going with...
...it's what we've got.
Florence looks better this afternoon
Cone and models on Florence
Courtesy of www.spaghettimodels.com
You can see why people in NC and SC are watching FLO
Phil in Miami...
who I respect so much is watching everything.
Why?
TD 8 and 9 have people there concerned.
And no matter how many times you say...
"Don't worry on Florence"
People in Miami look at Florence and see Andrew.
It just is the way it is.
If you have not walked in their shoes...
...you will never understand.
Tropical Depression 8
Yes I know it's the newer one.
It's developing fast close in.
It came off looking like a winner.
It will more likely turn faster too.
Much like Flo did.
It has more potential in the short term.
A look at it on satellite imagery shows why.
Right off the African coastline.
Has a sense of circulation.
It's huge.
Some mets have been waiting weeks for this one to roll off.
It's been overly anticipated by many.
We've been watching it make it's way across Africa.
We watch waves while you sleep.
Look at the big wave over Africa now...
Then there is TD 9.
We've been watching it.
Previously 92L
Perspective of Florence and TD 9 below.
Again 8 is by Africa still.
Part of the problem with watching hurricanes is you watch the hurricane and check the models, race back to look at the hurricane and you forget to look around the hurricane at other things that might be hindering her intensity or down the road enhancing her intensity. You know that saying what doesn't kill you makes you stronger; this area needs to be watched for how it relates to Florence later. The shear from this region that went NE towards Florence hurt her badly, if she ends up positioned near this area it can enhance her circulation or affect her track. Or it slowly
disappears into Florence possibly. Too soon to know. But that is why I led with it this morning before it was an Invest. Another reason that Invest 94L is being watched so carefully is that there is discussion that moisture from 94L could get caught up in the circulation of Florence should Florence intensify the way the NHC feels it would so as I said above there is much interaction possible in different ways from these many systems that are carefully being monitored by the NHC to give you information.
As for me I think it's very possible that Florence will make landfall somewhere from the Georgia and South Carolina Line up to the Outer Banks and Virginia area. I can't rule out a landfall in those areas and I can't rule out that it might go inland. In truth usually storms threaten to go inland and then after stalling or looping finally something kicks into place and the door is open and they slide up the coast by the Outer Banks (sometimes far inland as far as New Bern) and they go out to sea or move on scaring everyone to the North. It happens. This is as basic as it gets. Without a strong cold front to pick this girl up and kick her out to sea it will be a few days before we know where she is going. And, until she follows the forecast from the NHC (something she has never been good at doing) we won't know if she regains her Major Hurricane status or even her plain old regular Hurricane Status. We have another 24 hours before knowing these things so hang in there. Get a plan, you should have had a plan and keep preparing for the wort and hope for the best. The reason I hate when meteorologists proclaim a wave off Africa as a "FISH STORM" is shown here with Florence below now knocking on Carolina's door. When Florence formed most people declared her a fish storm form day one. Doesn't look so fishy now except in this graphic warning map from the NHC. Looks like Carolina BBQ to me.
Yeah...is that the FISH storm there?
Oh and that's a system behind it.
Not a tail.......
It's never over til it's over.
Stay tuned for more thoughts.
I'll update the blog Saturday evening.
For people who aren't familiar with my blog.
I go offline on Saturday for the Jewish Sabbath.
That's it for now.
Good sites to use
http://hurricanetrack.com/ he lives in the Outer Banks
www.hurricanecity.com Great site.
Jim from Hurricane City knows hurricane history.
He also highlighted the Outer Banks in his city picks.
The Bottom Line always!
Sweet Tropical Dreams
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Good discussion below.
Please keep reading.
Be entertained and educated and...
Y'all check back Saturday evening.
* * *
That's Florence center stage.
To the left of her convection is her center.
The center is visible.
Hey check it out closer to the coast now.
Especially the center (circle) not the red/yellows.
New system bottom right.
Now we are going to decompose this ..
..like a Berry Cobbler in parts.
Watch this area above.
in the loop it swirls, oozes..
Puts out sheer being blasted at Florence.
This is the moisture left over from Gordon..
... that mixed it up with a slow moving trof...
This is the high pressure to the North of Florence pressing down.
Put it all together.
COMEDY....
Someone name that system before it has an eye.
Come on gang let Flo go for a few hours.
Name it, write discussion, make a cone.
Drama...
Spaghetti Models
That about says it all for now.
Until we see Florence come back to life.
Until we see what that trof has up it's sleeve.
Until we see if the ridge builds in.
Until they name the other two systems...
92 and 93 need names..
We watch and wait another day.
I know we keep saying that.
But it's true.
Tropical meteorology is not for the faint of heart.
Helps to have a sense of humor.
:)
I will update later today.
It will be heavy meteorology.
Models and analysis.
This morning I'm having fun.
Writing, thinking out loud.
Enjoy my thoughts.
Feel free to give me your thoughts...
@bobbistorm on Twitter.
Let's start with some thoughts online.
Good thoughts.
Hurricane Tracker App by the way ROCKS
It's awesome.
Their Tweets are always on the money!!
To start off with.......if I made any typos I'll fix them later because I can and I'm still waking up and fighting off the after effects of some allergy medicine. It's a good excuse for a long fun rant on weather, Hollywood and online drama of the weather people trying to figure out Florence. Love you all.. even if you think this is about you to quote a song.
I know it's annoying to hear it but not much has really changed with regard to Florence and the long term future of Florence. Everything you see online is really speculation based on models (computer programs) that are speculating on the future track but until Florence rebuilds we are back to watching and waiting.
As a weaker storm she goes West. If she were not to stay together she'd blow away off to the North Atlantic. If she was still a Cat 4 hurricanes she'd have busted through a ridge and found her ticket North. As a weak storm wandering West, fighting off shear and trying to find air to breathe she sniffs warmer water and weaker shear further West. It's that simple.
Yes there is the possibility of a system now over America enhanced by tropical moisture from what's left of Gordon that could possibly be strong enough once it's moved more to the East to help grab her away the way hundreds and thousands of storms have moved away from the US coast. The very coastline of the US traces the route of previous hurricanes that came close but then curved gracefully away. Will Florence be one of these rule breakers? Only time will tell and we aren't yet in the time frame where we can be sure. Assurance on track is only five days away at this time. We can squint really hard and try to bring the 7 day into focus, but we are not Superman. So we use models to try and show us what will be and they take what is, what was over history and giggle it around together with their algorithms and put out a product and then they race off in search of a better answer another six hours or so later.
Remember in Smokey and the Bandit when they finally got back with the beer and all their friends cheering them on and you thought it was over and they would bask in the glow of victory? I remember those moments and then there was one more wager and they were off to Boston for crab chowder? This is basically what is going on with the models and the storm, it never ends in the short term and as soon as Florence is finally put to bed the models continue chasing down solutions for Helene and Isaac and then comes Winter Storms.
Enjoy the show, enjoy the trip along the way and think less on the destination. Watch the water vapor loop or whatever loop you like and watch the beauty of Mother Nature and Planet Earth and how air is moved around, shuffled off to Buffalo but tropical systems in the summer helping us have the fantastic atmosphere we have on this Planet that allows us to live in concert with weather. You want to live in the frozen tundra move to Siberia or you can move to the Gobi Desert if you want constant heat.
You know what really pisses me off? I'll tell you as we watch Florence on the satellite imagery battling off the shear. Meteorology is filled with two types of people and that includes all the amateur mets who like to call themselves "Weather Geeks" or "Nerds" as well.
1. The forever cynic, sarcastic, pessimistic type of person who watches as a wave comes off of Africa and almost always immediately lists it's weaknesses and declares it pathetic and gives it low chances of ever developing before it has even hit the water. It's not in the water for 24 hours and they have stuck a fork in it, made fun of it and patted themselves on the back for knowing that crappy wave wasn't going to make it. By the way... often they are wrong and the wave bobbles and swims and can't pull it together and makes it into the Caribbean, gets a name like Camille and races off into history. You know what they do? They kind of pretend it wasn't a CV wave and they immediately start writing copy and making graphics for Camille and pretend it's not the same wave they hated when it came off of Africa. This also happens with home grown systems as well. They are smart and witty but over time it gets hard to really enjoy their brilliance because it's exhausting to watch that much energy put into a story as sad as the Days of Wine and Roses. It's a great movie with incredible performances but it's sad and after the first time you watch it you let it settle in, wash over you and then you go off in search of a comedy to cheer you up. Jack Lemmon was great, but you want to remember him in Some Like It Hot and The Odd Couple.
Flowers for Algernon another great movie.
Award winning.
Sad.
Nuff Said.
2. Then there's the other types who immediately see that wave coming off of Africa on August 9th and they go all wild and get all excited and insist it's the best wave they have ever seen and it's going to go West and then WNW and then it's going to just barely avoid the Islands before slamming into Florida detaching it from the rest of the USA and then once in the Gulf of Mexico it is going to swerve back catching a really fantastic looking cold front and swing back as a Category 4 slamming into Tampa, destroying all the roller coasters at theme parks in Orlando and once back over the warm Gulf Stream it is going to ride the coastline (kind of Matthew like but closer) and destroy Savannah, Charleston, Wilmington before detaching the Outer Banks from the rest of North Carolina before plowing up the Del Marva taking out everyone in the swamp of DC before moving on to New York City and Boston. What a hurricane!! Best hurricane EVER!! No, that's not going to happen. Though if it did I suggest South Florida gets it's own state and the real North Carolina is everything East of I95 and what is left West of I95 be called what it really is East Tennessee. But it's not happening. Movies like that are fun to watch but Jim Carey didn't win any awards for being overly silly but he was fun to watch, it's probably way more fun to watch than watching Jack Lemmon decompose in the other movie. There really should have been a great movie with some tragedy and comedy about meteorologists who fall in love and fight over the tracks of hurricanes they eventually fly into and chase. Can you imagine a forecaster and a chaser and wouldn't Jim Carrey be great in that movie? My gosh... he could play either role kind of like someone with a split personality but that's another movie isn't it. Oh there would be some really sexy dialog with witty allusions to sex and the special effects of the Cat 9 would be awesome!!
(still with me Fishing? stop coughing..breathe.)
That leaves us with what really usually happens. Reality really usually happens. Most hurricanes coming in at the angle Florence is coming in at (CURRENTLY) turn out to sea gracefully sparing North Carolina being separated from Tennessee; Florida gets stuck with Miami. Sometimes a system gets trapped under a strong high pressure system like Betsy, Dora and Andrew and slams into Florida from the East when a ridge builds in. Sometimes hurricanes loop and stall off the coast waiting for their next ticket out when steering currents collapse. Sometimes, usually they curve away and parallel the coast and if you want to put money on a track you can almost always say that and come off looking like you know everything; almost always you will win that bet. I'm not that deeply invested emotionally nor pig headed nor egotistical that I really care about being right. I am often right because to be honest I have studied, been through strong hurricanes, chased storms, done research with some of the best meteorologists who ever lived and listed and learned from them and I know Climo and often I am wrong; we are all often wrong it's life.
I am here because I love the process and beauty of how the atmosphere works be in hurricane season or in the winter in the Carolinas. I am a map slut. Great line but true, never seen a map I could walk away from without looking at it for a few minutes. I enjoy writing and the blog is easier than writing the Great American Novel which often takes a big bite out of a writer; look at Fitzgerald. I don't want to write screen plays... I'll leave to some writers I know as when I did drama it was acting, not writing screen plays. So enjoy the chocolate chip cookies I leave on the table and shake that tambourine and keep on dancing.
Weather is a drama. Weather is comedy. It's the best drama and comedy there is and way more unpredictable than the Bachelor or Survivor. It can be tragic, it can be dramatic...it's comedy tomorrow tragedy tonight or however that song goes. It's compelling, real and happens in real time without a script and while we learn from history every hurricane is different in some unique way. And gotta tell you real storm chasers are as smart and crazy as they showed on Twister but even better ;)
They know...that WEATHER is the GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH!!!!!!!!!!!!
Why are you still here? Oh you want models? Go to www.spaghettimodels.com or www.tropicaltidbits.com which by the way is on Spaghetti Models at the top left. I write. This blog was brought to you by me being bored waiting for Florence to do what the models say she is going to do and tired of listening to the fake bravado of negativity online fighting with the people who think Florence and the new wave that rolled off of Africa is going to cause death and destruction seen recently in Puerto Rico sadly, but most likely the Outer Banks and Miami are going to survive. If the Outer Banks detaches from NC at I95 please may I suggest we make the capital of North Carolina New Bern again?
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps ...This interesting walk down movie history was inspired by Burt Reynolds and his happy wonderful movies that made us laugh, some serious but always entertaining. Oh also Florence, Helene that is forming now and Isaac that will form soon as well. Oh check it out we had a really busy season despite all the negativity from the Academics and the depressed mets who thought that the 2018 hurricane season would never begin. Yeah right...where are those people now. I'm with Mike... I really don't care. I'm here for the weather not the constant whining or nonsense but I do love to have fun along the way... oh the videos repeat, it's okay cause according to my youngest son they were raised on Smokey and the Bandit they must have seen it a thousand times growing up. Explains a lot... Gotta go...got a hot date with Estee Lauder
I'll say it again.
Florence and the Forecasters.
Reminds me a lot of Smokey and the Bandit.
It reminds me of this epic Smokey and the Bandit scene.
This scene reminds me of the models...
...trying to chase a solution for Florence.
GFS and EURO hot on it's tail...
This is the late night crew on Twitter...
..sitting up tweeting waiting for the next EURO run.
My absolute favorite scene ...
...well one of them...
Oh Bandit... we will forever miss you.
posted by BobbiStorm @ 7:05 AM
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