UPDATED Florence... Where is Landfall? Where is the Stall or Loop? Timing... Models. In NC Watching Carefully

The discussion on where Florence makes landfall is not as difficult as it is to where it goes after landfall. Anywhere from the SC/NC sate line North to OBX could get landfall and be clear it could be moving slow, stalling, looping or sliding in and then bobbling about after landfall. Compare and contrast this with tomorrow morning's cone and discussion. The "dead lock on track" from 2 days ago is now and unsure forecast on exact location of landfall and low confidence on what it does after landfall. Why? Weak steering currents or rather dying steering currents with a strong, intense hurricane moving towards the coast.

Those are the details above.

NHC kept it at 140 mph...

...recon didn't find 140 mph winds.

NHC is cautious and that's good.

They also made it clear on the problems after 72 hours.

Discussion from the NHC below.

Steering currents not really carved in stone.

Flooding potential.

Note this could change.

But if it dips down into SC... 

..then bobbles back to NC..

Gets caught in the flow..

Where exactly does it go?

We are talking the moisture.

The 140 mph winds are aimed at the coast.

The rain could go on for days.

Creating a historic event for more than just NC

Rain totals below...

..this could ooze around a bit from now til then.

Arrival of TS winds below.

Biggest discussion today among people was..

..if leaving where would they go.

Most said Charlotte or Atlanta.

No that's not really a good option.

And if new models are right...

..Raleigh will get less than other areas.

That too can change.

If you are AT the coast you evacuate.

If not? 

Fear of losing power I get it.

Fear in general.

But unless you are flying out...

..where do you go?

And flights are being cancelled as I type this.

So wait til the next model run.

Wait to see what FLORENCE does.

That's my bottom line tonight.

The appearance of that storm isn't right.

Bottom half is eroded.

That's either from shear or ???

Time will tell and ...

..that time is coming soon.

Keep reading if you haven't as I explain more thoughts.

Stay tuned... 

It's an extremely dangerous powerful storm.

But it's satellite appearance is less than perfect tonight.

And I have low confidence in the models after 72 hours.

As for me I'm in Raleigh.

Staying in Raleigh come what may.

As long as I have power I'll be online.

There is food in the store but...

..no water, bread or bananas.

Some gas stations are out of gas..

..expecting more tonight.

Long lines but patient people.

It's not Miami where people riot.

Being honest.

Compare and contrast with 8 PM.

CAT 4

National News.

Everyone watching Florence....

Especially Weather Obsessed Matt.

Well weather sells......

The cone.

Slight bend to the left at the end.

NHC going with new modeling output.

What will the next model runs show?

Models below.

I want you to remember this picture with all the storms.

I'm going to go back to September 3rd.

We were watching Gordon in the GOM..

..and Florence forecast to be a fish storm.

Remember when...

I wrote about Florence playing chicken ...

...with the Carolina Coast.

Today the models and forecast show that.

I'm showing this one because I felt it was possible..

...way back when on September 3rd.

And because as always which model do we believe.

In truth models are currently very close together.

But does it go inland and rain, rain and then what?

Or does it limp inland in weak steering currents...

...and do the odd loop down to the WSW?

Or that possibility of it staying offshore looping.

Back on September 3rd the Euro showed this possibility.

I've never been the biggest EURO fan ... 

...but this shows the EURO has done a better job.

The GFS showed Florence...

The EURO showed "a bevy of friends to her SE"

The EURO called that...

Again look above at all those systems.

The GFS didn't really see them coming.

The location from 9/3/2018 is off ...

...but not that off.

They had it lower.

They had it close to the coast.

On September 3rd many insisted she was a Fish Storm.

So move her up a bit to where she is today...

..and the EURO was pretty on the money.

The GFS had it out to sea.

Below I mentioned the stall and loop possibility.

I've seen storms do this in years similar to this one.

I live in NC...

The fronts come, collapse and move back as warm fronts.

Seemed illogical she would go out to sea with a front.

 Again I wrote it has happened in the past. Despite what everyone thinks there have been storms that made it across the Atlantic at a high latitude and ended up where they would be if they had gone low and then up and over the Islands. It's not important HOW she got here...the path she took it's important where she is currently and what the steering currents are and as I expected the steering currents could go flat leaving her kind of stuck, squished (as my grandson says) between two weak high pressure areas that offset each other. Look at the image below.

She leans NW or as if she wants to go NW

WNW to NW

Look at the big system in the GOM.

Look at the trof to her East over land.

You start there...

Florence holding on to a moisture feed.

Cut off from moisture to the South And East.

Now we look at the current image.

She found warm moisture.

She also is partially sucking in energy from the Carib system.

Storms need moisture to live...

...to thrive.

She always finds a way to thrive.

She was a Cat 4...

...she's a Cat 4 again.

On 9/3/2018 I said she's tenacious. 

Nothing has changed.

I know she's awesome.

But she's not perfect.

I've seen better Category 4 hurricanes.

Yes she had Eye Wall Replacement Cycles

This is shear coming in from the SW.

So now the models throw us a wild card.

All day today in Synagogue people asked me..

"If we leave where should we go?"

That's the question.Thi

NOT to Charlotte...

And possibly not to Atlanta.

Because if the models are right and it slides WSW ...

...after landfall that might not be good.

I suggested Orlando.. 

My son wrote me after the holiday ended..

...he knows it's serious he saw FPL trucks on I-95 all day.

HEADED NORTH.

I'll update the blog after the 11 PM.

I'm here.

Going out to get a few things ...

...that I didn't get on Sunday.

I just want to say one thing.

IF it slows... and stalls or loops.

Where is obviously the question.

If it stalls over land that means tons of rain.

Historic rainfall rivaling Floyd.

IF it stalls just off the coast..

..and does the odd sliding SW along the coast.

Aside from driving everyone crazy..

..it would keep a good part of her over water.

Hurricanes need water to thrive.

So she would less intensity than..

..if she stalled in one spot and had upwelling.

Looking back at Matthew.

The NHC was sure he wouldn't make landfall.

They even went with the junk models showing ..

..and odd loop back to Florida.

Is this latest model run a junk model run?

Maybe.

But the momentum of a major cane is huge.

And even when you try to slow down.

It's like trying to stop a train.

And Matthew did end up making landfall.

I'd like to see the next model run.

Does it really matter?

Yes.. in the long game.

In the short term NC and SC is getting a hurricane.

Maybe Georgia gets a good part of her rain.

Or her rain goes north up into VA.

For now we follow the NHC and prepare.

I'm preparing.

Raleigh doesn't have a tropical storm watch yet.

The watch stops at the county line.

I'm pretty sure that will change.

Follow the advice of the NHC.

Not Uncle Chip..

well unless Uncle Chip works at the NHC

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Florence

Be back in a bit.

Thanks for your patience.

Besos BobbiStorm

Catastrophic flooding...

..loss of power.

And most of the coast may look different next week.

Places like Morehead City that I love...

...and Atlantic Beach will see massive destruction.

Wilmington Wrightsville....