Florence Driving Forecasters Crazy Since She Left Africa. SE On Alert.. Carolinas? Georgia? Virginia? Does she loop or stall? So Far Moving at 17 MPH FWD SPEED
8 AM
This is mostly a "Hold my place" post.
I will update after the 11 AM NHC advisory.
There are many factors at play here.
It's a confusing situation.
I am on the edge of the cone, no watches and no warnings and people who know me well who shouldn't ask keep asking me "ARE YOU GETTING OUT?" (no I can't go to the beach because everyone is evacuating from the Beaches as told to do...) and I'm in Raleigh trying to prepare for the hurricane that the NHC said was coming for sure two days ago but then things got weird. Things always get weird with Florence and she is still very far out at sea so basically things can get a lot weirder. She also has never been good at following the NHC forecasts though they have gotten a better handle on her and the environment with the data from recon and the Gulfstream Jet that samples said environment. There is also a system down in the Gulf of Mexico that is weak and barely expected to develop but it is pumping moisture up into the SE or rather moisture if flowing away from it (as it's not organized) up into the area where Florence may or may not go.
This view shows that story better.
See the moisture far inland over Tennessee?
IF the moisture form the Gulf Player..
..links up with that approaching system.
It could create a stronger pull on Florence.
Or it could be temporary.
There was a trough over the Carolinas.
It died out.
She is still far out at sea.
Again a lot is going on.
There is a yellow circle now..
...directly behind her.
She's at a Chinese Lunch Buffet and ...
...can't decide what to eat.
Why do hurricanes stall or loop?
Because it's a chaotic flow and no real steering current.
So they follow one for a while then stop.
Stall, go slow, loop....
...waiting for a better option.
Basically waiting NOT to be blocked from moving.
She's caught there going the only place she can.
What bothers me is she has not yet slowed down.
"PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H"
She has NOT yet begun to slow down.
She's not totally trapped.
But the models are messy.
A battle of models.
High pressure, trofs, high pressure.
Is she going to move SW or...
..is she going to loop about for a bit.
If so that's good cause there could be upwelling.
Loops or stalls too close to the coast is bad..
Her SW side has been not as strong as her NE side.
Let's look at some loopers.
Some loop away.........
...some loop the other way.
Again this is the cone.
This is the NRL grid.
If you are inside that grid watch it carefully.
Raleigh has equal odds as Savannah.
Think about that a bit.
Or does Florence bust through and keep going anyway?
I'm not sold on the slowly changing NHC forecast track.
Because if I was it negates any faith in the one 2 or 3 days ago.
This slowing before the coast has been in it for days.
Waiting.
"PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H"
Have things to do...
..will do model discussion, thoughts and observations after 11 AM.
...closer to Noon.
Then I will update after the 5 PM.
I know normally......
...it's better to see the storm moving away to your North..
..than to your SW maybe.
As what goes SW tends to loop back with the flow North.
Keep watching.
Messy I know.
No one ever said it would be easy.
We are kind of back to September 3rd.
System down in the GOM
Where does Florence go?
I said then she could stall or loop.
Not much has changed.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps.. models all up on www.spaghettimodels.com
posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:49 AM
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