Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, October 04, 2018

UPDATED 9 PM. Michael... Does the Wind in the Carib Cry Michael? Maybe .. But the EPAC Also Has Action. Two Sides to a Tropical Question. Model Discussion. Thoughts on Tropical Development in GOM & Landfall Possibilities.

Pacific 30%
Atlantic 50%

Atlantic Side Winning!!

We may have a winner!

* * *
Keep reading if this is your first time today... 

Decided to update the blog with the 2 PM upgrade to orange.
And to discuss the continued support of the EURO for this system.

Note nothing has really changed to warrant the orange circle other than the EURO came out with strong support for it's development and moved up the timeline a bit. I could joke and say the formula for the NHC handling these areas of interest is that every time the EURO comes out with a strong signal of support they up the area of interest 10% ---- I'm teasing of course. Kind of....  Shear has not lessened and it's still disorganized having a zero chance of development in the 2 day but based on model imagery the long range chances for it's development go up. You be the judge... 

Leslie is beginning to look like that circle on Jupiter.
It's been there so long now. 
Forecast to move out soon....
Below you see our area clinging to the coastline.
East Pac area broad large circulation. 
Neither seem ready for prime time.

Cranky posted this in his blog this afternoon.
It's similar to what I said this morning.

It's a good way of putting it.
Epac may be "noise" but it's there.

That's definitely the possible trajectory down the road.

Euro today put the pedal to the metal.
Speeding things up.
Front also seems to move faster.

Forms it coming off the Yucatan.
Moves up towards the front fast.
Landfall about the same area as earlier.
Love their ability to show where the weather is...

The GFS....
Less impressed.
Shows something but...
..doesn't do much with it.
Again the ensemble is more aggressive. 

Another view.

Now has it inland on October 11th.

Moving shore 2 days later.
Note it shows a new L in the Caribbean.

I'm pretty sure people know his maps anywhere.
But making sure you know I'm using his maps.

Adding in the CMC.
Because I like it's consistency.

It's consistently hit this general area for days.
The EURO wiggles back and forth.
Sees it, loses it, sees it again.
But the Canadian has been consistent.
That does lend credence to the EURO.
Note Canadian has it moving slower than the EURO.
keep watching.

My thought process hasn't changed much.
This is a slow motion event.
It may move faster as it approaches the front.
Depending on if the front dives or moves faster.
But getting there is the slow part.
Once up into the GOM timing is important.

No Invest yet.
Usually it needs to have a higher percentage.
At least 50/50
Or if the GFS jumps on board.
And the next EURO run stacks up the same.

Compare and contrast with earlier yellow X.

Keep reading if you have not.
I'm still waiting to see the 2 areas duke it out.

Will Michael form and move towards the Bayou?
Or... swing more to the left towards AL/FL?
We need convection and we need a center.
We need rain. Wind.
Closed circulation.
A center.
Til then it's all conjecture.

Keep watching.

I'm leading with this yellow X.
This is the spot the NHC is watching in the Atlantic.
Caribbean is part of the Atlantic Basin.

Remember that location please.
Now I want to show you something.
There are two parts to this equation.
It's a mathematical equation.
Will it develop?
Good question. 
Which area are you talking about?
Did you know there was a second area in the Epac?

The tabs at the NHC site show both.
You have to hit on the EPAC tab.

Go to the Epac and you will see this.
Oh.... yellow circle there too.
30% also
But.... 10% in short term.

You see this is a complicated set up.
It's easy to say there is a CAG (gyre) there....
But it's got something festering on both sides.
Rarely do both form at the same time.
They kind of take turns.
Only so much energy out there.
One wins out, other has to wait it's turn.

Something going on ....
..on both sides of Central America.

The one on the EPAC side today looks stronger.
Could form faster.... move away a bit.
Then our Carib system can breathe more.
By breathe I mean ventilate.
Build up a bit into the atmosphere.
It's dealing with shear right now.
Why is there shear?
Obviously some shear from EPAC.
You got to always look at the bigger picture.

This image makes me think EPAC still got it.
Late in season but they are still going strong.

There's the larger picture.
Area in Carib... moisture displaced to the East.
Area on EPAC side.
Yes I watched Mike this morning.
More on that later.

It is very likely something forms in the Atlantic.
In about a week's time. 
Maybe 5 to 7 day time frame.
Til then it bubbles and boils and struggles to stay alive.

Now I'm going to talk models.

Euro shows a storm... probably a hurricane.
Moves North into the GOM.
Looks like it's headed for Nola...
Then slides NE or ENE towards Alabama/FL line.
We've seen this before this season haven't we?

My thoughts on this are as such and they will change depending on what actually happens as weather flows and is always fluid. Even when steering currents collapse, the water then rains down as it did after Florence was fluid.  This all depends on the front and how strong the front is and the orientation (angle) of the front. If the front is stronger it moves faster, if it's slower the storm moves slower. It is sweeping it grabs it and it can just as easily come in closer to the Big Bend or around where Alberto made landfall back in May. Same set up in that fronts were on the move but weak, now we are on the other side of that and fronts are on the move again but they remain weak. By next week the front may be strong enough to grab it and then what? You see the link on ends right there... around landfall. Does it slide fast to the ENE with a front moving out to the Atlantic and reform in the Atlantic off the East Coast? That could happen. I am not saying it will yet, but I am saying it could. Could the front go flat and it rains itself out in Alabama and Georgia with some possible flooding. That could happen. Much could happen. UNTIL A CENTER FORMS... it's all a guessing game and the models will flip flop back and forth offering solutions like small children in a classroom raising their hands trying to get the teacher's attention. 

Alberto Refresher... shown above.

The GFS below shows nothing, nada, nuttin' happening. Possibly the GFS sniffs out something trying to form in the BOC or Western GOM. The GFS ensemble shows something forming as it sprays the Western part of the GOM with a system. The timing as always is different from the EURO above. We will see where this goes and it's a wait and see situation currently.

Leslie has to move further to the North and ....
...we have to see what happens in the Epac.
If the Epac develops then Atlantic waits a bit longer.

She's weakening and moving a bit further away.
See the NHC Tweets... do you read Twitter?
You don't have to Tweet...
...just read it for the news ;)

Something will form I believe that.
But it's more of a 5 to 7 days.

Til then you will see convection flare up... 
..die down and then move around.
Again look at the top with the X is.
It's not an area where it forms.
It's a formation zone.
It has to get into the zone.
And it has to get North of the shear...
..and into warmer water.

If it forms North of the tip of the Yucatan.
The water is warmer and shear is lighter.

I posted this on Twitter earlier.

Area where it is now has cooler water.
Tip of the Yucatan is entry way to the hot water.

From Spaghetti Models above...
Chances of formation go on next week.
Still has chances now but low.
Notice the wave behind the Low seen below.
We have the RED LOW.
And the black line is a wave.
Often the new wave lights the spark.
Mixes it up with the Low.
Kind of like adding Coca Cola to Rum 
Oh I meant Rum to Coca Cola :)
Or Coke and Jack.

High is strong over Florida.
Low pressure where the NHC X is now.
Closer to the Yucatan it could spin...
...find it's center and then we have a ballgame. 
Till then we are doing warm ups.

Also the shear isn't as strong North of the Yucatan.

This could set us up for some sort of Opal system.
But moves North... close to land develops stronger.
Surprises people who didn't see it coming.
Distracted by OJ trial.
Read up on that... 

Early October storm.

Lili in 2002 was more IF...
IF Kirk had not died.
Did Kirk die? 
NHC says it did.


Lastly I want to talk a bit about Mike.
We are friends and I admire his ability to talk.
To convey, explain and educate others.
And while doing so he's entertaining.

He shows you HOW to use the site properly.
Many do not realize there are so many options.
Impressive always.

I'll leave this here for him as he mentioned him today.
I'm thinking the Wind Cries Michael..

Pieces need to come together.
Then the wind can cry Michael. 


Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... I'll update if anything huge happens later today.

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