Hurricane Harbor: Hurricane Leslie. Caribbean Yucatan System Sitting Down in the Caribbean. 30% in 5 Days. Nada in 2 Days. Then What? Is Florida in It's path? East Coast? Gulf Coast? October Storms Always Difficult to Forecast.

ZERO PERCENT CHANCE IN 48 HOURS.

It's a watch and wait day.

Five day.... 30%.

Compare and contrast.

We have Hurricane Leslie.

We have a 30% yellow circle in the Caribbean.

I wrote this blog between Noon and 1 PM and held putting it out until the NHC updated at 2 PM their Tropical Update. As expected, nothing happening now. Lots of color and flash and nothing of substance. Whatever develops will do so when Leslie moves away, the high eases up, the area being watched finds a center and the shear relaxes. It's in the right spot, but we aren't there yet. So read my thoughts and listen to the music. It's a long blog. I owe you after being away 2 days and updating late today. And, it's a complicated set up and easy to think "oh there it is" but you'd be wrong. The flashes of convection are a red herring. The real show is down the road. And, yes whatever forms near the Yucatan can make landfall somewhere along Florida or the Gulf of Mexico and whatever is near Florida can cross over Florida or slide up along Florida and impact the East Coast. So many possibilities. Follow along. And, have a wonderful, fantastic day!

Here's the satellite image.

Leslie up top all yellow.

A color I call Peter Yellow.

Long story...

And our area in the Caribbean.

But wait....

It's not where it is supposed to be.

Note the yellow x below.

Placed off to the left of the convection...

Hmnnn

The picture above is older.

The latest pictures shows a new story.

Watch the loop.

Here's the link if the loop doesn't load well.

http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/SatelliteLoop/hicbsat_None_anim.gif

You see the convection oozes around.

It moves about.

It's dancing in the Caribbean.

A high to it's North.

The perfect set up for a tropical event to develop.

It's basically cooking.

Don't expect any area of red to be the CENTER.

It's just convection.

Shuffling about, looking for the right place...

...to put down roots and develop.

Shear gets stronger the convection goes East.

Then wait, watch and you'll see it comes back.

Near where the yellow X is from the NHC.

Today's a day to hang back, relax and play hooky from everything in the world and just breathe. At least it is for me. Normally during the hurricane season I feel the pressure to jump in right away and write something up on the tropics as I have friends who like to see something early in the day. I say friends, because they are not just people who drop in and drop out when there's a Major Hurricane, but true friends online and off and as friends do we share our thoughts. I never started this blog to see if I could get a million people to read it (yet that's happened a long time back) but to write on the tropics and this hurricane or that set up in the tropics and yes it has taken on a life of it's own at times. Today I just needed to breathe, loop, talk, listen and try to get a feel for what could be a problem next week coming out of the Caribbean. I was offline for two days for a beautiful Jewish Holiday and didn't write, didn't loop and everything has been crazy but today I played hooky and talked to my best friend for at last an hour on the phone old style.

Leading with the song so Mike can find it easily ;) and later I'll explain why I am leading with it other than to make Mike smile. Great song, going to be stuck in my head all day.

What do the models say?
I know that's what you want to know.
Why the girl who attacked Mike didn't know that..
it's beyond me as you give people what they want.
Mike does.
I do.
Others do.
Thinking out loud here a bit today.

Other than my close, crazy friends who want to know what's going on today with me and the tropics or anyone who is here for some literary reason people want to know if it will form or where it will go. We in the media, both on air and online, are here to inform and warn people so when someone asks to see a model just show it to them. Or explain you will but first you want to explain one thing, you don't lash out and crap on someone using their name "some guy named Mike" you be professional and show your viewers what they want. Nuff said on the "Drunk Monkey" comment as most of you know and if you don't you can Google it as it's become famous.

This is October. The prime formation region in October is where the yellow circle is currently. Again that yellow area I showed before I'm showing below. Compare, contrast you get the idea. It's in the right place at the right time. So the models are not just shooting off phantom odd systems towards Florida and the Gulf of Mexico and the Bahamas... to be honest the models are presenting many solutions.

When ever models put out tropical systems in the right spot climo wise you have to take them seriously. Anytime the models put out storms forming where the pattern calls for a storm to form you have to take them seriously. I have written about this coming down the road since way back in early September. The long term forecasts show a pattern that sets a stage for tropical development. Some great shows have never made it to Broadway but were hits out of town but closed and others end up winning Tony awards. Strong, consistent high pressure to the North especially this time of year creates a weakness to the South where something could develop. Add to it there is a CAG forming which basically means a generally broad area that has a need to spin. You toss in a remnant of Kirk or a westbound tropical wave that didn't develop or even convection that got away from a cold front or the tail of a hurricane and it begins slowly to wrap. This is NOT Harvey. But if you remember the models had this odd solution of Harvey coming together awkwardly when conditions finally were positive and some mets made fun of the models because it's formation was not a fluid, neat thing and yet... it actually did what the models showed it would. So sometimes messy areas in the Caribbean that make their way up towards the Gulf of Mexico can do odd things and develop fast much as Wilma did off the Yucatan. This is NOT Wilma. This will be Michael most likely. I say that because you never know this time of year if something odd develops and the models have showed a few areas that could develop. Who can forget the Mickey Mouse formation zone the models hinted at a few days ago?

That's a true image.

Just why?

Different areas being latched on to models.

Wow I never knew Coca Cola sponsored Mickey Mouse.

Can you imagine if hurricanes had commercial sponsors.

Just think on that.

Okay back to Michael not Mickey Mouse.

But could Michael get near Orlando?

Something to think about.

I'm going to show the top 2 models.

Makes me think of Top Gun.

GFS is now slow to develop.

But develops it over the Yucatan.

OCTOBER 15th.

This is why it's a yellow circle now.

It's not an Invest yet.

Just an area we are watching.

Again every model run changes.

EURO shows two weaknesses.

The ears on the Mickey Mouse hat.

Then on October 13th there's a Low over Florida.

This will change.

They always change until there is a center.

Models make wild stabs in the dark...

...playing pin the tail on the Donkey.

Oh darn.. I said Donkey.

A few thoughts online worth listening to and remembering while watching loops.

Crown Weather.

He offers several scenarios.

It's a pay service.

He tweets on Twitter for free.

Follow him.

3rd scenario: Tracks towards Bahamas.

High Pressure ridge kicks back in.

Pushes it back towards Florida.

Can't escape, scrapes it's way up the coast.

Warm water still near the coast.

Not a good scenario obviously.

This scenario has been on long term models.

4th scenario: High Pressure to the North weaker.

Then guided North and then NE... near East Coast.

NEXT WEEKEND.

Not this weekend.

https://twitter.com/crownweather

I concur. Very logical.

All depends on when Leslie leaves.

Where the center forms.

Timing.

Oh and the cold fronts....

Short term it's not happening.

High pressure not letting go.

Warm weather in Carolinas.

Thunderstorms in the NE.

http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/allfcsts_loop_ndfd.gif

High remains in place.

Cold fronts blocked for now.

Let's look at the 7 day.

Nothing on the 7 day.

No diving fronts.

No hurricane.

The dotted line over Florida concerns me.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

When models get messy it's always good to use this loop.

Double Barrel High.

Dotted Line over Florida.

With this set up....

The high is strong.

If anything forms it gets pushed West.

That may be what the GFS sees.

Euro sniffs out weakness by Florida.

Go back up and look at what I showed you.

The image of the forecast 7 days out.

Kind of is line with the models.

Visible imagery below.

Nothing really there.

A slight twist, turning movement on loops.

But nothing really there.

Leslie very there.

Water Vapor Loop below.

See how Leslie interacts with the High Pressure ...

...anchored over the US.

Note the two areas of convection.

East of Florida.

West of Florida.

This is important to watch.

Leslie looks beautiful.

3 images I'm leaving you with..

The reality ... Leslie owns the Atlantic currently.

That will change but it's true today.

Until Leslie gets out of there....

...nothing big is happening elsewhere.

Jim said that the other day.

Showing it again.

It's just true on many levels.

The high is shoved West over areas....

...that should be enjoying Fall.

But are stuck in summer.

Note that keeps the water off shore HOT.

If something slides along the East Coast later.

It feels like summer in Raleigh.

But it's just a matter of time....

My bottom line...... the reason today was a good day to play hooky is there is nothing happening. I have laundry to do and dinner to figure out and friends to talk to and kids who are flying here and there to get back home from the holidays. I have mail to read and bills to pay and plans to make. And, nothing is forming today, tomorrow or the day after tomorrow. It's something to watch. And nothing that is going to intensify today into a Cat 4 hurricane off the tip of the Yucatan threatening to wipe the State of Florida off the map. It's just fun to watch. It's a good day to watch.

Some things are compelling. Some people are compelling. Mike is compelling. He is supposed to go to Talladega and he's worrying on it. That's something to think on. Why? Because he loves to go to Talladega and he loves NASCAR and he can watch the tropics from anywhere. But he lives in Tampa an area prone to be impacted in October when fronts begin to move down into Central Florida and there is something in his gut gnawing at him I think and he can't buy into the Talladega trip totally until he feels Tampa and Orlando might not be on Michael's travel itinerary. I can see his mind thinking that and or he worries this blows up fast and moves up into the Gulf of Mexico towards where he's traveling. It's possible. Anything is possible and that's why Rob from Crown Weather who is very clear cut has FOUR scenarios currently.

As for me...... I'm in Raleigh. Some things you should know about me. I'm Southern. I love NASCAR and I love the Carolinas and Florida and the State Fair is coming to Raleigh later in October and usually the first good cold front pushes through about then. Not always sometimes we get rainy weather while a front stalls out and sometimes it's hot. Time will tell. I'll update. Oh and I love Darius Rucker.

My son took this picture below of Daytona the first time we went there. There was no race that day, we just went to take him and climbed way up and watched cars practicing. There is nothing like Daytona or any real NASCAR track. But the soon to be architectural student was taking pictures of the stadium from underneath the way I take endless pictures under a pier.

I guess I should have seen the architecture coming.