Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, October 05, 2018

UPDATED! Invest 91L - 70% Chances for Development in 5 Days - GFS Jumps On Board with EURO and Others... Hits N GOM with Strong TS or Hurricane. Tropics on Friday TGIF GYRE in the Caribbean and EPAC. Invest 97E in Epac. Stay Tuned....

Invest 91L has been designated in the Atlantic.

 It's a start.

You can click on that link above.
Look to the left at the top.
Atlantic .... 91L and Leslie are there.

Speaking of Leslie I wanted to say one thing.
Some people in Miami have asked me on something.

This is an area that sort got spun off of the tail of Leslie.
Or weather associated with Leslie.
It's nothing to be worried about currently.
A link that shows it is shown below:

hiatlsat_None_anim.gif (768×496)

It's interesting.
Something in the Atlantic close to the coast could form ...
...down the road but not currently.
Today all eyes are on the Caribbean.

My concern here that I want to address is this...
Models will shimmy back and forth.
This is forecast to be a right heavy storm.
Meaning the strong WEATHER would be on the East side.
The new GFS that showed a landfall in FL Panhandle..
Would bring much weather to the Florida West Coast.
And then North Florida as well.


But I want people to remember it down the road...
...should this continue to show up in models.

A good source for information especially ...
... if a storm threatens Florida.
Michael could.

Models will be up soon on all sites.

What changed?

As expected after the GFS joined the EURO in landfall.
The NHC upped their chances of formation to 70%

Image from a little earlier.
Smart weather people know when to pay attention.
They don't need an Invest to investigate.

Will see a full Invest eventually.
It's a mute matter in ways.

Big convergence of energy in the SW Caribbean there..

After days of refusing to blink.
The GFS threw in with the EURO and others.
Intensified Michael into a possible hurricane.
Making landfall.

Begins to really pull together on Tuesday.
Then below.... it makes landfall on Thursday.
October 11th, 2018
(that can of course change.... early runs...)

See below.

Above is the Euro inland.

People are talking. Obviously.
Nothing has formed.
This in theoretical maps based on modeling.
A forecast that can change.
But if the next GFS run stays the same.
Or the EURO ups the intensity.
It's something to watch.
Mostly watch the area itself.
It has not yet formed.
60% chances at 8.

Note it was already on maps before GFS jumped on board.

7 days away.

Again it is battling shear now and marginal water temps.
Once past the tip of the Yucatan....
The water is warmer.
The shear is forecast to be less.

Keep watching.
I'll update later today with important info.

What you need to know if you live along the GOM coast.
Northern GOM coast specifically..
Pay attention.
If you live in the NE GOM Coast...
Pay close attention.

As always things change often.
So make sure you have a good App on your phone.

Great App to get fast updates on Michael.

Once Michael forms... 

* * *

This is Invest 97E 
It's a bit confusing.
Epac has a 30%
Atlantic has a 60%
You would think Atlantic has the Invest.
It's their way of doing things.
97E is closer to the coast....
....more populated cities.
Maybe it's one Invest for the whole thing.
But less drama Invest putting it there.
Who knows...
...but either way it's there.
Easy to access.

Again Atlantic.

Again Pacific.

Here's the actual area.
Very equally distributed in ways.
More round and intense on ATL side.
But the center is closer to the middle.

We don't have a center we have convection.
And this is a long, range, slow burn sort of set up.
A gyre in the Caribbean means...
...there's something big there.
Has an overall look.
Wants to spin.

Often this set up produces Tropical Development.
Models are mostly on board for a TS
Hard to say exactly.
As we don't have a real center.

I also want to draw your attention to this image.

When I look at this image below.

A song came to mind.

Note the area in the GOM?
That's where ATL part is forecast to go by the models.
That area has been lingering there for days.
Moved West from Florida.
Offshore Tampa it blew up...
...drifted West slowly.
Currently the gyre is anchored over land.
Once the area moves away from land.
Up into the GOM.
We have something to talk about.

What bothers me?
Nags at me?

This is a current water temperature map.
If it moved into the N GOM.
The water is warm and in theory.
It would intensify.
But if the front is strong there could be shear.
If anything gets off the East Coast of Florida to Maine.
There is so much warm water there.

Right now I'm just watching.
I'll update this afternoon.

Stay tuned.

Besos BobbiStorm

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