Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, October 07, 2018

UPDATED 11 PM! Tropical STORM Michael Forms Sunday... Models Show a Hurricane Making Landfall and Remaining a Tropical Storm All the way Across the SE. Are You Ready for a Tropical Storm Moving FAST? Hope So. NHC Shows Hurricane Michael May Be a Mean Storm.

Cone below.

Discussion is interesting.
Many models show tracks to the West.
Many of the big models go left.
Yet NHC is going with the UKMet and others.
This is the discussion below I'm referring to...

My problem with this is that shear forecasts are notoriously crummy. Sometimes we read the set up well and sometimes the shear disappears. What is most important from my point of view is how well organized Michael is in 24 hours. Often a storm can have strong winds somewhere in one small area but it's not stacked right and leans to the right and overall something is just not right. IF Michael is stacked well, moves over warm water further from land as it's going through the Channel and not crossing Cuba nor the Yucatan it has the potential to be stronger than it is forecast to be tonight. Should shear come on strong and the stronger moisture is far from the center somewhere over Florida it's a messy Gulf of Mexico system. The problem with these systems is they are usually either very messy or they make a big mess. Big Bend of Florida is most under the gun tonight but by tomorrow night we will know with little doubt where this is going and how strong it will be when it gets there.

So updated tonight for the Night Owls or anyone on the West Coast of the US worrying about their family and friends on the West Coast of Florida or many of the cities in it's path after landfall.

Lastly........check this image out.
Remember all of the discussion on the GYRE?
Michael is now wrapping moisture in from the Epac.
Mother Nature often finds a way.

latest72hrs.gif (947×405)

IF he found his center I can see big problems.
If not ... more of the same tomorrow.

And look at that great wave coming off of Africa.
Too late in the season to cross the Atlantic?
NHC watching it though too early to tell.

Something to dream on ...
...Sweet Tropical Dreams.
Lastly ... listen to the NWS in Tallahassee.
Prepare properly.

Good Night Michael....

* * * 

Note rain over Cuba now.
Central America has had flooding rains.
Not just from the part in the Epac.
Atlantic side won out.
Tropical Storm Michael.


Cone similar.
Pulled a bit more to the right in ways.
Right = East.
Please note the code above for the forecast points.
S = Tropical Storm winds.
All the way inland.

All the models are up on Spaghetti Models.
(Yes I like make up...)
Discussion from NHC below.

The link is above. I'm going to wait a bit before I post more. To be totally honest the center didn't really "move" as much as it is still in the process of forming, coming together and due to it's close proximity to land (the Yucatan) with shear still coming in from the West on the EPAC side the situation is fluid and not set in stone. Once it moves away from the Yucatan and wraps up some we will see what we will see and we will all see as it will become apparent. My brother sent me a message ROFL about the center more to the East ... yeah... there is a rush to judge and find a center when it is still developing and coming together. Play the Beatles ... Come Together tune in your mind a bit.

Yes my brother quoted that with ROFL ...
...he lives in Miami he's watching for any Eastward movement.

Holding out the door that this could be movement...
...or more so taking over as the main center.

Globals see a strong hurricane.
And again as it begins to move FAST... stays a Tropical Storm all the way til the Atlantic.
Mind you that route could ben shortened if ... moves more towards the NE earlier.
Or will it go North and then hook East.

It has a nice signature.
Give it time to move North of the Yucatan Channel.
Get up into the Gulf of Mexico.
Note the small kink in the winds E of the Bahamas.
I'm still watching that.

Levi Cowan at
...has good floaters up if you are interested.

He also has models up.

All my kids are back in the USA today.
Carolina Panthers won a fantastic game.
Tropics busy and the State Fair is coming.
And cooler weather will be on the way soon.

Now all we need is for Michael to totally come together.

* * * 

As seen in this picture I show below in the blog.
From earlier.

So yes....Breaking News.
As Expected it's a Tropical Storm.

But now it's official from the NHC.

Look at that blow up by the center.
Or wherever the recon finds the center....
Note Mike is going live at 1:30 PM
I'm watching Carolina Panthers.
Multi-tasking day today.

Official TS symbol below.

I know return you to your regular programming ;)

Keep reading all the info if the same

Tropical Depression 14 at 11 AM
A Tropical Storm at 11:55 AM.
Fast changing set up here isn't it?
Forecast to be a Hurricane.
Putting up this graphic 1st.
This is the WIND Speed Probabilities. 
That's a huge chunk of the East Coast.
Most of the SE.
Think I-95 if you are traveling.

Note winds go wide on both sides of landfall.
Even if it makes landfall in Florida.
Winds will be felt over that area.
This cone changes in real time.
So check it often please.
As it is a fast mover.
Worried on wind.
More on that below.

Next is the cone.
Cone tracks the center.
As the large disclaimer above it explains.

Now going to show you my real concern.
3 - 5 Day part of the Cone.
I'll explain this below.
Note the older cone further below.
Not much different.
Still seeing a fast mover.
Currently a TS near Atlanta.
When was that last time that happened?
Moving fast. 
Even more dangerous due to fast forward speed.
It's hauling.... over Raleigh on to Richmond.
NJ by Friday around 7 AM.

Again this is for the CENTER.
Center of the track.
Weather can happen outside this cone.

Look at those cities in the path over a 24 hour period.
With it forecast to stay a Tropical Storm!
Let it soak in a bit.
Are you prepared?
Discussion highlights below.

They are keeping it at TD status for now.
Some data shows it is a TS now.
They are waiting for recon still.

They're staying conservative for now with intensity.

Nearly all intensity models show this will be a hurricane.
Last night models began coming in...
...there were questions on how strong it could become.
Some said Cat 2 or Cat 3 and they were made fun of.
I like to see a center before I commit.
Nothing to make fun of....
They also said a solid hurricane.
That is really all you need to know for now.
AGAIN it's forecast to move FAST.
So you have less time to prepare if this plays out.

"Out of respect for the GFS and EURO.."
Yes it says that.
Read below.

Timing is everything.
The devil is always in the timing details.
Cat 1 at landfall.....
...or more than a Cat 1 at landfall.
Does the track wiggle at landfall?
Currently the NHC is on the LEFT side of the models.
Left meaning WEST.

The forecast is very conservative.
NHC has it at 80 MPH
There will be hurricane winds at landfall.
Sustained or long, strong gusts near landfall.
Outside the cone and up the coast.
Pines will fall, trees will break.
Roads on barrier islands will flood.
Inland it gets messier.
Power goes out.

This is not some slow moving tropical wave.
Lives and dies in 120 Hours out.
Post Tropical/Extratropical in the 5 day forecast.

I think they are a bit too conservative.
But I get it they want hard data from recon...
...then you put that hard data into the models.
That's very logical.
But this is a fast evolving situation.

This is why I ask you to go to your local NWS site.
Below is from NWS Tallahassee 

So that's the hard data from the NHC.
They love hard data.
They love facts.

And, thank God we know what we know today and we have the NHC putting out watches and warnings because there was a time less than a 100 years ago, less than 75 years ago when we did not get a cone or watches and warnings in the way we do today. There was a time there was no television or microwave or computer or smartphone with weather apps you can put on your phone to send you alerts. People encountered storms like this and were blindsided and often they died or loved ones died. And what is so upsetting is that even during Hurricane Florence when everyone hyped it and watches and warnings were out there and 50 lives that were lost that were attributed to Hurricane Florence. That's not right .... we have to take these things seriously and err on the side of caution and don't impulsively do things that put ourselves and our loved ones in danger. I hope and pray that lesson was learned from Florence but I'll keep praying on it.

Keep reading.
The details of my concern for this storm are below.
It's fast moving speed presents unique dangers.

That's the start of my long loop.
Below is NOW.
Look at that.
Check that out.

Looks like a Tropical Storm to me.

What a difference a day makes when it comes to storm development and the models. Let's start with what it looked like earlier below. Then I'll show you what it looks like at 10 AM on Sunday morning.

There's a broad area of strong winds.
A few competing centers trying to develop.
Rain being sheared off towards Cuba and Jamaica.
Now look at it below.

Much different set up now.

Tropical Depression 14.
Closed center.
NHC placed the center by radar.
Not always the best way but good for now.
Planes going in and will get better data soon.

I'm going to divide my concerns up into two parts.
Older cone from 5 AM. 
But you get the idea.

Time wise the first concerns.
Where does it make landfall.
Where does the dangerous weather go?
What category hurricane will it be at landfall?

There is potential this could ramp up fast.
Shear could hold it in check.
But the possibility for it being stronger at landfall is there.
That means storm surge, rain, wind, squalls.
As it's aiming for a front it will merge with...
..expect tornadoes to form somewhere.
It's a classic set up.
Has to do with the wind and the directions of the wind.
Add in spin and you get fast spin up rotation in cells.
Those rotating cells could be FAR from the eye.
So draw a shaded area to the right of the center/cone.
And pay attention to your local NWS.
Here's the link.

If you click on that link above you get this:

HMNNN.... if that doesn't catch your attention what will?
Click on it.
You get the information below.

I'm tediously explaining this and many of you know this.
But many do not realize the local info is there.
It could save your life.
Pay attention to local authorities.
This is a fast moving storm at that point.
OR forecast to be ...
And things often change fast.
See the space between forecast points?

Nuff said on that.
In truth after we get information from recon.
The models will have better data to work with...
But the models are in good agreement.
This develops.
This makes landfall.
Timing is a day apart....
...which city gets landfall?
But after landfall.........
Oh my goodness.

Part 2

Look at the distance between the forecast points.
This is more like a rocketman than a hurricane.
And forecast to stay a Tropical Storm for a long time.
Even as a borderline TD/TS far inland... get real impacts.
And I'm not just talking rain........

Seriously this is a real concern for many reasons. Anyone ever read up on the 1938 New England Hurricane? Obviously this would have been forecast days out in today's world and people would have been warned not to go to the beach, go swimming or boating and to hunker down as the hype would be unimaginable in today's world. But back then there wasn't much notice and a fast moving hurricane approaching a frontal system sped up like crazy and slammed into beach goers and people out sailing and they never knew what hit them. This happened often in the old days. Even Hurricane Hazel when it hit Raleigh was moving like a speeding bullet coming in faster than expected according to the locals and when you get strong winds over 40 MPH in areas where there are heavily forested hardwood trees and pines you get a huge Major Hurricane Impact even though you are dealing with a fast moving Tropical Storm. When a storm is moving that fast, if it does move that fast, you add that speed onto the speed of the system itself and it becomes intensified in a way that is much like "feels like" humidity on a hot day when it is 91 degrees but it feels like 101 degrees. As bad as you might think 91 degrees might be you run out to the store and get stuck in traffic and are out longer than expected and the heat is so oppressive you can't function; if you are not properly hydrated you can pass out. 

Speaking of hydration.... the ground in many parts of the Carolinas is still wet, moist from Florence. I walked over to Temple on Saturday cutting through the Church property adjacent to our Synagogue and as I left the sidewalk I could feel it still a bit muddy under the pine needles. After Florence it was muddy so I was careful yesterday but I could still feel the moisture under the ground. They have some beautiful dogwoods and azaleas that are not in bloom currently and I like getting off the busy, noisy Falls of the Neuse Road... (yes that's it's name) and well it hit me how you could still feel the moisture there. Down East.... where the flooding has receded and people are trying to pull out wet drywall and salvage what they can from Hurricane Florence there are places where there is still standing water. So you have the ground in the Carolinas still well hydrated .... and you add a Tropical Depression of Tropical Storm moving VERY FAST over a heavily forested area and hardwoods fall, branches snap and things get very messy. That means the possibility of localized power outages. The exact opposite of Hurricane Florence a storm trapped by steering currents that collapsed lingering for days over the same area. This storm would bring extreme weather over a wide area moving fast so timing is everything. Don't think "oh it won't get here til noontime so I'll just run out to the Chick-fil-A and pick up some fried chicken for the storm as you may get caught out in the storm and your chicken may taste good but it's gonna be cold by the time you get home. Watch your local weather, pay attention to your local coverage people or whoever you follow online and stay home, wait it out and before you stay home make sure you have bread, peanut butter, batteries and all those things you bought in Raleigh for Florence but did not need, because you may need it for this fast moving storm. Things like this really happen round these parts, a friend of mine did that before a snow storm that looked like it was moving slower than expected and it sped up and she and her chicken got stuck in the snow storm. She won't do that again trust me.

Speaking of local people. I often say I want to move to Charlotte just because he is so good at covering local Carolina weather, though he focuses on Charlotte. It's an old Facebook Live but one worth listening to and it's worth friending him and paying attention to him tomorrow and the day after tomorrow.  And to illustrate how good he is at getting the message across this is his pinned Tweet. Explains so much so well.

Of course he and everyone else up here is looking towards cooler weather.

The silver lining of an October Hurricane is... helps flip the switch to ON for Fall.

Someone I got to know online on Twitter who knows this area well and who I trust totally is a guy name Chick :) and his special area of interest is the Sandhills down to the South of Raleigh. 

I asked him what an analog storm might be.
He said Gordon 2002.
See...the devil is in the details.
I should have just Googled Hurricane Gordon 2002 :)

Giving y'all a little taste of Carolina here...
Charlotte has a great NASCAR museum.
Even if you don't like NASCAR you should go.
Great history, a tilted track you can walk on..
Fantastic museum.
My Step Son who doesn't like NASCAR loved it.
Try it you will too if you're in the Charlotte area.

In Raleigh our lives are focused on the State Fair.
And local college football.
And I'm watching the Carolina Panthers today!

But I'm aware that this is Hurricane Season.

And there could be storms more than Michael.
Nadine may be in the wings.
Can we get to the O storm in 2018?
Note the image below.
Intensifying or organizing Michael.
Leslie still crazy after all these years.
Nadine way out there?
And moisture in the ITCZ continues.
Is that a wave coming off of Africa?
And odd swirl near Florida.
(swirl broke off of Leslie)

This is my satellite loop of choice this season.
Fell in love with it.
So deal with it.

My old always and forever love.

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

In truth this is the Anti-Florence. It's a fast moving, developing tropical system that could easily be a strong Hurricane at either Cat 1 or Cat 2 strength depending on shear out of ahead of it or how well stacked it's center becomes down the road. The road is a long road but it seems like a short road as it's moving fast. And after the Football Games end today and tomorrow on this 3 Day holiday weekend of Columbus Day you might want to head out to the store and stock up on anything you might need should the trees snap, limbs come crashing down taking out your electric or you get stranded on I-95 driving somewhere later this week. Close to shore are certain concerns, farther away if the NHC is correct, we will have a Tropical Storm cruising through Georgia, the Carolinas and parts of Virginia even maybe. So prepare accordingly and keep your head about you if this forecast plays out the way it is expected to. No one likes the weather person who has to drive home these points. It's easier to call it all hype and expect the best and not prepare for the worst. Been a while since we saw such a fast moving storm. And the cooler air at the end reminds me of Wilma. Everyone wants a cold front in October but no one wants a hurricane, but often they come together in the same package.

I'll update later today with information from recon at the top and add in any new model information that is relevant. 

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Dadabuh posted this earlier today. He really is psychic in ways :) I was thinking on this song last night, couldn't remember it exactly but now I have the lyrics. He... we... me... have been going on and on about a big hurricane coming out of the Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico and impacting the East Coast for days... weeks... most of the hurricane season. The set up has been there for a while, but until the fronts begin to move and we get closer to colder air nothing was there.

He's awesome.
Lot of people round here are awesome.

More fun song I know.
But there's a lot to be said for music....

Going to show some local 

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