Hurricane Harbor: PTC14 Forms ... Forecast to be Tropical Storm Michael ... Cone Takes It Towards Landfall Along the GOM

There we have it.

Potential Tropical Cyclone 14

AKA

PTC14

I'm really cool with the early warning set up.

Anything that forms in the GOM...

...makes landfall and is a bull in a china shop.

Some points I want to make here to start off regarding what will be Tropical Storm Michael. Note that it is not organized currently but on it's way to getting there. As I have said for days.... once past the tip of the Yucatan the environment becomes a friendlier place. Shear lessens and there is warmer water though the real warm water is close to the coast. The majority of the weather, unless and until it wraps up into a tightly wound ball, is to the right of the system. That means NOW before it has even totally formed weather is moving up and over Cuba. That weather then continues on to South Florida and the Florida Keys. As it is very unorganized currently and will be for a while the "weather" will be blown over all of South Florida whether or not the storm makes landfall in the Florida Panhandle or Big Bend the weather will find it's way to Florida. That means localized street flooding and the possibility of severe weather so keep that in mind while looking at the cone that is straight up into the Gulf of Mexico far from any land for at least several days. But the weather associated with PTC14 aka Michael WILL be impacting Florida in various ways. This is a typical set up with storms of this kind coming up in October from the Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico with weather being sheared off towards Florida and Cuba.

I came out of my Shabbos shadow where I'm doing other things.

Went online and checked out Mike's page.

It's a great buffet of images.

No calories but lots of excitement.

Then I go to other friend's sites.

And I stare endlessly at loops of PTC14.

Note the two images below.

The top image shows where the warm water is...

...or isn't.

Understand it's warm everywhere.

But much warmer where you see the reds.

On the bottom you see a shear map.

As it moves up into the GOM...

..shear is forecast to lessen.

Know shear forecasts are often iffy.

So that could change.

So it has a window to really strengthen...

...closer to landfall.

While this is moving North.

The "weather" will be moving NE over Florida.

Typical.

What's really worth mentioning I have mentioned before is that Michael will be much like Alberto earlier in the year. Depending on how strong the front or "short wave" is that is dipping down will not only dictate the exact track and timing of Michael's arrival but whether or not Michael begins getting sheared by an approaching front. This set up often produces a high end tropical storm flirting with hurricane strength and often achieving it over the very warm waters close to shore ...however points are taken off for the shear in the intensity equation so it's a watch and wait set up. Most models keep it weaker, a few bring it to hurricane strength easily. It's very early in the game but the game is on so let the model run and watch PTC14 wrap up into Michael and time will tell when we can narrow down the exact point of landfall. Early estimates are North Florida (including the Big Bend area) over to Alabama. Mississippi and Louisiana should keep their eyes on it until a track towards Florida is more set in stone.

As for wind probabilities they are all over the place. In the short term they are closer to landfall and in the long term they move up over the Carolinas and Virginia... depending on the timing and union of Michael with the front calling to him.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT3+shtml/062036.shtml

Short term concerns.