Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, October 09, 2018

Updated 11 PM. 125 MPH MAJOR HURRICANE Michael Moving Towards Landfall Along Florida Panhandle. Forecast to be a Cat 4. Tornado Threat in N FL All Day. Pay Attn to Local Weather Authorities. TS Nadine Forms in E Atlantic. Leslie Heading Back to Africa. Yellow Area 30% in Caribbean Could become Oscar.

The eye of Michael.
I cut this down from a larger image obviously.
Says it all... why we call it an EYE.

Still moving North.
Still getting stronger.
Note please what Dr. Rick Knabb said tonight.

This is basically what I wrote in my blog below.
What I wrote earlier tonight waiting for the 11 PM to come out.

Last hurricane this strong was Eloise in 1975.
People on air saying they have rode out every storm ...
....for fifteen years and were fine.
Were not there in 1975.

Arrival of winds.

Timing ... know the timing.

Discussion from NHC

NHC forecasting it reaches Cat 4.
Before landfall.
This could change.
It could get stronger.
Might get weaker.
Either way ...does it matter?
Yes ... no.
5 MPH is a statistic.
Squalls could have gusts way higher.
That gust hits your pine or oak tree..
It's landing in the next county.

Please pass this around.
This link...
To anyone in the cone.

Compare with now.... to earlier below.

Consistently consolidating.
Keep reading my thoughts please.
I wrote long on my thoughts.
With prayers for all in the path of the storm.

My favorite satellite image above.
Love the dark blues and deep reds.
Shows delineation so well.
Front off to the left.
Going to be severe weather there... 
Tight eye of Mike.
Cat 3 Major Michael 
Huge rain shield.
He owns the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.

One of my favorite Miami mets just posted this...
... Expect stronger winds on the 11 PM.
Barometer dropping.
Tightening up and moving fast.
More on that later.

This one sort of takes an XRAY of sorts.
Looks down into the structure.

That satellite view shows how precise this is... neat the eye is and right on track.
Maybe drop W of track but just a drop.
Satellite loops are odd sometimes.
Each different satellite shows something different.
Hard to really see things sometimes.

Could watch this all night.
And I am... 
I could see this going to Cat 4.
But not predicting that.
Wouldn't take it off the table.
Something about the eye makes me think... will soon do an eye wall replacement cycle.

Cone below.

Note how much closer to the coast is it now.
I really think this has been moving a bit faster than 12 mph.
Just my feeling.
I also think it has been taking the left side of the cone.
Yes I know it's forecast to hook right.

So I'm going to give you my late night thoughts. Know that these thoughts are just thoughts, flying fast off of my head and they have been rolling around inside my brain. Earlier discussion that I didn't post because I went out for a Smoothie and to walk around town a bit here.... talked on how it was moving North but would soon get picked up by the Westerlies. Then it mentioned it's strong, strengthening and expected to be stronger. I feel like those statements contradict each other. Yes... it is going North now and YES it will at some point bend back to the right. But every mile it moves North now it has to bend sharper to the right to be in the middle of the current cone. I'm splitting hairs here I know, I'm not saying it's going to curve off like that weird less respected green model showed earlier. I think it stays within the cone for sure but... a hurricane this strong wants to go poleward. There was talk on this the other day in the NHC discussion but then dropped over time. And it's running out of room frankly to stop lifting poleward. And I say "lifting" as it's "lifting" more than moving... it's aiming North, being pulled North caught in the flow and the need for a Major Hurricane to go poleward. So where exactly does it begin to curve more to the right? It makes all the difference for some beach town in it's path.

hicbsat_None_anim.gif (768×496)

I'd guess it's moving closer to 14 MPH North.
I might be splitting hairs with the forecast.
But every mile North makes a difference.
The front is moving but not that fast.

WV Loop

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

Lifted North.
High pushing down on the right.
Front is calling it.
It's moving North.
Where does it bend a bit to the right?
Soon it will be completely on the radar.
There it is down there...
moving into view.

NOTE the yellow circle in the Caribbean.

Opening bid at 30% on the 5 day is confidence.

Let's go back to Michael.
We can worry if this is Oscar another day.

NWS watches and warnings below.
More will fill in tomorrow.

I've been harping on the threat of tornadoes.
Back to our monster Michael.

I'm a purple girl.
That does me in....
Mean tail forming there too.

Cranky can be critical often of strength.
BUT... he always warns of dangers others do not.
He sees the big picture.

He's pointing out that tail.
Don't be blinded by the eye....
The tail will carry tornadoes and strong weather onshore.
Far to the right of the cone.
Remember NHC says dangers are outside the cone.
The cone is the center.
Weather will slam into the Big Bend.
Don't say I didn't warn you.

If you live safely to the East of the eye in Florida.
Do not feel you are safe.
You are safe from the core of the eye.
You are NOT safe from the WEATHER.
Severe weather.
TWC won't be there...
...they will be at the beach.
But the tornadoes will spin up fast.
Bring huge trees down fast.
Losing power is your smallest problem.
Don't say I didn't warn you.

What do I think?
I think people are clueless.
Not to be mean or cruel.
Just honest.

Before Andrew slammed into Miami Dade County everyone in the stores trying to grab anything they could find that wasn't perishable were also in total denial it would make landfall. There was a high ridge as hard as granite and no escape route with a CAT 5 Hurricane barreling West towards Miami and people were bitchy and annoyed they "had to go shopping" because they were sure it would turn "just like Hurricane David did" in 1979 when it did turn away from Miami. It was 1992 but they were still replaying and complaining about David in 1979. A little secret about Miami is that it rarely gets slammed by a hurricane. They slide by offshore or they slide South and go through the Keys like Irma did but rarely do they slam into Miami. Miami gets lucky always... it's the Magic City.

This part of the Panhandle has always been in the path of poorly formed Tropical Storms and weakening hurricanes that barely have a punch. Opal blew up fast and strong and fell apart just before landfall though it caused a mess. Hermine... Alberto... the list is long of storms that came in not that catastrophic and I'm not even going to talk on Earl. Further to the West near the Alabama border then have seen some strong big storms but usually this part of the country can ride out the storm. Locals have tales where they were at the bar and this strong gust came and............  Honestly heard the same stories over and over when I was in St. George Island in November of 2017.  The big hurricanes like Camille and Katrina go West towards the middle part of the GOM almost always. But sometimes ...on any given sunday... a Major Hurricane makes landfall and comes in with the promise that the NHC makes in their forecasts. This is tomorrow guys... not three days away. There isn't much that can happen to stop this though we can hope something does and it's weaker on landfall. Could it be a Category 4? It could... not going to deny that though I think a strong Cat 3 is a given. And some places will feel Cat 2 winds and some other places Cat 1 winds and the whole area is going to be slammed by storm surge and if the forecast verifies it is going to take off like Rocket Man and speed along giving few people a chance to take a last minute precaution. This is not Yo Momma's Storm... this is your storm. It's real and I don't think people are prepared for a real Major Hurricane to come calling. 

Look at that space between forecast points.
It moves... moves .. moves..
Then hits Warp Speed mode.
No one in North Carolina I spoke to tonight... expecting anything.
Maybe they are right.
But it's moving so fast... 
Whatever happens... happens.

So going to leave you with these thoughts.
I may repost them tomorrow.
I'll be honest.
Wish I was there.
If you haven't chased a hurricane... wouldn't understand.
I have friends there chasing.
I'm in Raleigh writing.
Giving you my thoughts.
Skeptical what I'll see here...
as weather tends to go around Raleigh.
But time will tell.

I'd say prepare if you live in N FL.
But the time to prepare was yesterday.
Earlier today.
Hunker down if you didn't evacuate.
Stay safe.

Prepare for the worst...
...hope for the best.

Time will tell.
I'll update the 11 Pm later.
But tomorrow is prime time.
When and where does it make that hook?
We will know tomorrow at this time.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,
@bobbistorm on Twitter..

Ps.. Read up on these two hurricanes.

Both of those hurricanes delivered a real blow.

Different but worth reading up on a bit.

* * * 

Spinning in the Gulf of Mexico.
Moving Towards Landfall

The eye is impressive.

Takes up the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.


Note power outages will be over a wide area.
Not just at landfall.

Right on track.
No real changes.
Always expect odd wiggles of movement.
Especially with a Cat 3.
Eye wall replacement cycles occur.

Moving North.
Expected to bend to the right a bit.

A note from Cranky on Twitter.
This explains my concerns after landfall.

Landfall will be mean.
High storm surge.
Forecast to be the strongest in ages.
Let's see what happens.
Inland tree damages, power outages.
Fast moving ...

Stay tuned.

It doesn't get more clear than this.
NHC hangs with their forecast cone.
Advisory after advisory.
And should it be a Cat 2 at landfall not a Cat 3?
The impact will be the same.

Don't focus on "but it's 5 mph weaker"
Or "OMG it's 5 mph stronger"
It's about deadly storm surge.
Hurricane force winds moving fast.
Tornadoes far from the eye or in eye wall.
Inland flash flooding...
..especially in areas with elevation.
Trees crashing down...
...power outages.

Are you prepared?
THAT is the bottom line here.

Live Blogging so stay tuned updating in real time.

GFS sees a strong hurricane, moving slower down the road than the other models staying strong as it makes it's road trip across the SE from Florida to the Carolinas. Wednesday landfall, as in tomorrow.

Note Nadine in the Eastern Atlantic.
Leslie holding down her fort in the Mid Atlantic.
Michael making landfall as a Cat 3 Major Hurricane.
950 MB. Hopefully that's wrong.

Then it keeps on cruising going strong all the way to OBX

Michael hauling TS winds the whole way.
Could that happen?
Sure anything could but not many do.
Odds are on our side.
Prepare in your area accordingly.
Take in those hanging plants....
Your BOO Halloween ornament might take flight...

Worth noting this is in fairly good agreement with the EURO.
Last EURO run.
Second verse ...same as the first.
(remember that song?)

Again these are from

Michael makes landfall on Thursday 
952 MB.
Major Cane.
Then moves up over GA and SC

Then exits and is off OBX 

Hurricane Strength again?
Can this really play out this way?
Again this is a short term forecast.
3 day forecast not 5 nor 7.

And pointing out what remains below.
Bottom line... another storm could develop.

MOST models show this possibility.
Nadine is in the East Atlantic now.
So if this forms it would be OSCAR.

2018 is a very busy hurricane season.

Well you asked for the models.
Now I have shown them.

My bigger concerns.

1. People just don't understand the cone. I'm sorry I do but most do not. My husband has a friend who lives in the path of Michael and when I say the path I don't mean the cone or the middle of the cone. She lives in a beautiful town across from the water that comes in from the bay and it will funnel up into that area the way the water did in New Bern. She has some disability, been there along time and could evacuate but she is waiting to see if they keep pulling the cone East and then she'd be on the edge of the cone. People do not get the cone. They see the cone as the path of the storm. I understand how they can make that mistake but it's wrong. It's following the winds in the center of the eye. And.....the eye can cross many towns and beaches but only the town or beach at the exact center of the eye will get the official landfall. The water is being pushed all the way towards Louisiana where high tide will be high especially during a King Tide. Along the East coast of Florida and Georgia tides will run higher and along the whole of the Florida Panhandle to the Big Bend the storm surge could be historic and devastating. But because she and another person I spoke to is WEST of the middle of the cone they feel they are safe and it will be okay to ride it out. Someone told me Jim Cantore didn't come to their town :(

No words.

If you are in the cone or have a watch or warning it's there to tell you to watch out and be warned.

There is a disconnect how people comprehend the cone in their mind.
Both people are within the red part of the cone at landfall.
But they are on the left edge of it....

The cone is about wind, center of the eye.
Dangers exist outside this region.
And just because other storms fell apart or made a hard right..
..doesn't mean Michael will.

2. Tornadoes are a massive threat. Especially with this set up where a cold front is racing out of the West towards the area where Michael is making landfall so you have winds from the West mixing with winds from the South and SW (bad) and add in the old wild card off the E coast of Florida pushing in from the E and add that up and you get the need for things to spin within the overall system known as Michael. You get fast moving, deadly tornadoes that appear out of nowhere and rush off fast. People die in hurricanes always from random tornadoes in distant bands. The discussion is in wind speed and being a Major Hurricane and storm surge but the tornado could get you even if you are far outside the cone. More on this later in the blog below so keep reading.

Flash Flooding concerns inland.
Trees crashing down taking out electric.
Hopefully not killing people but...
...pretty sure this name is going down not to be used again.

3. The convergence of moisture from the remnants of Leslie that spun off of it days ago and continued moving towards Florida (remember all those "what's that area off of Florida's East Coast" questions you have been asking? That area is approaching from the East... you can see it above... rain coming in ahead of Michael that then links up with the moisture in Michael and the front pushing in from the West at a rapid pace moving East. That area is already causing rain along the Florida Georgia border and as it spreads up into the Carolinas ahead of Michael and then with Michael you have more chances for tornadoes and more chances for trees in wet soil to tip over and either crash into a home killing someone or luckily just knocking out their power. This is a bad set up. See the image I made below.

See that becomes an additional battleground.
Yes it's moving fast.
It will clear out.
Temperatures will be cooler...
...should you lose electric that's good.

Please keep this in mind below.

*Note TD 15 Formed in the East Atlantic.
Forecast to be Nadine.
At the end of this blog more info on Leslie too.

As for Michael above.
That's precision within a hurricane.
A strong 100 MPH Hurricane Michael.
On it's way to being Major Hurricane Michael.

I am posting today's track next to yesterday's track.
Doing this because people keep asking on changes.
Rarely do you get so much agreement by  models.
And the NHC track maintains it's cone.

There are always wobbles within the track.
That's why they don't make one single line.
Major hurricanes often wobble as they move.
But the track is set in stone.

BUT... pay ATTN ALL DAY in N FL for Twisters.
This is and has been a huge threat yet...
no one is talking on it that much.
Local weather people are... 
...again watch your local weather people.
Classic set up as the "wild card" moves inland..
.... Michael moves NNW
Front moves in.
You get a collision zone for Tornadoes.

Duval County just had a Tornado Warning 

And as for Michael this is the 3 day forecast below.
This is happening NOW folks!

allfcsts_loop_ndfd.gif (799×559)

This is the 3 day loop.
Fast Moving Michael.
That's the story folks.

Michael approaches the coast.

Tomorrow it has made landfall.
Front visible to the left.

Front clears through.
Michael in the Carolinas 

This is not HYPE.
It's real.
And it's happening close to a King Tide.
So surge will be huge.
And it will come up the E Coast a bit.
During Irma St. Mary's GA had storm surge.
Power outages.
This is not hype.

This is real.
I go to Drudge for the pictures.
Honest he gets the best pictures.

Again... front is making it's move on the left.
RED color below moving East and dipping down.

Moisture to the right of Florida...
...also converging in.

Michael in the middle pulling NNW
Then North... 
They all merge together in one spot.

Ever go to a big concert?
Everyone is going in the same direction.

Once again I'll say it.
Love this image.
The front on the left.
Note the angle and orientation...
Note well defined Michael in the middle.
Moisture already pushing up to the North
(into what was a huge stubborn high)
Moisture on the right.
The old "wild card" that came off Leslie.
Moving in tandem but towards Leslie's moisture plume.

I will update this blog after the 11 AM forecast...
..and as the new model runs come out.
But we are past that guys...
This is about preparation and I mean as in do it now.
Do It NOW!!

Stop expecting it to veer off to the right.
Or fall apart.
Stop replaying Charley and Opal and Hermine.
This is Michael.
Real and in your face.
The bull in the china shop of the GOM.
Moving towards landfall.
The steering currents are set.
This is not Florence.

And if it does intensify towards landfall.
If it does pick up speed.
It will do the worse case scenario.

Please read last night's blog.
I was up late.
Scroll through to find what applies to you...
...or what resonates.

I'll update later.

Fairly certain the name Michael will be retired.

Mike has all the models on Michael.

Incredible array of visual imagery.

This is the real thing.

IF you aren't in the cone....
Watch the video I put up.
You can get a real feel for what that part of Florida is like...
... it's beautiful but it will be a mess to clean up.

Prepare or give money to the Red Cross Now.
Both are important!

As for Nadine... 
Yeah that's happening.
So much for a quiet 2018 Hurricane Season.
That went whoosh out the window.

Leslie still there.
Stacking up the ACE statistics. 
TD 15 below.

Far away.
Nothing to worry on today.
Down the road I have some questions...

Oh and Leslie is going home.
She had a plan all along.

I'll update around Noonish.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps... Again.

Never judge a hurricane season until it's in the rear view mirror.... never judge it in May or June or even July until it starts going in late August and September and a busy October.  Song stuck in my mind, sharing it with you now. Florence made it across the Atlantic at a high latitude all the way to landfall despite SAL, dry air and shear. Michael developed into a 100 MPH hurricane in the GOM against all logic battling shear. You really always got to worry about those storms that don't die when it seems like they should.... like Andrew... the Camille (a CV wave that didn't develop until Caribbean) you just go with them, watch them, do what you can to warn people and well how do you like them now? Bits of KIRK are wrapped up in Michael, they aren't talking on it but bits of convection that never died out are wrapped up into Michael and that part of Leslie that got flung off her days ago is heading towards hooking up with Michael as it moves across North Florida today on a collision course with the front and Michael. You can't make this stuff up... but it happens.

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At 4:58 PM, Blogger okeetee said...

Another "STORM OF THE CENTURY' according to the weather channel that fizzled faster then a wet firecracker made in China! These weather channel people are still reporting 125 mile an hour winds with this himicane and I can't find any town with winds more than 60 miles an hour! And those are dying faster than a Times Square pick pocket!


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