Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, October 11, 2018

Updated 5 PM Tropical Storm Michael Moving Through the Carolinas on His Way Back to the Sea... Atlantic Ocean and a Cone That Goes towards England. 50% Orange Circle Where Michael Formed in Caribbean. The Hurricane Season Isn't Over Yet.

This mass of rain is about to move through.
High winds.

Power outages up from when it moved through to the West.

Look at that wind history.

Tropical Storm Michael tapping into moisture again.

I'll do a full update either later tonight..
Or tomorrow.
I want to watch what happens... we are under special warnings.

Michael...Still a Tropical Storm.
Awesome day in Raleigh.
Later...stay safe.
Besos BobbiStorm

Ps... Death toll is rising, even in NC a tree fell on a man in a car.

What I am watching while I type this post.
Drone video from Mexico Beach.
Just gone.... places where storm surge slammed onshore.
Why we beg people to leave and evacuate.
There is no fighting that sort of deadly power.
It's why we call it Ground Zero.
Where a storm surge hits land.
Storm Surge from a strong Category 4.

So where are we now...
..other watching in awe of the power of Michael.

Let's start at the beginning.
In the 5 day we have a 50% chance of development.
The zone is the area that brought you Michael.
It won't be "Michael" but it could be Oscar.
Nadine is out by Africa supposedly a "fish storm"
Leslie is still here after all this time.
Michael is over the Carolinas.
That NE at 21 MPH will increase in forward speed.


Michael one with "The Front"

The front that lifted him... pulled him North.
A strong early October Cold Front.
A strong October Hurricane.
This relates.
The set up called for this to happen.
That's why I wrote about it in July and August.
All September I said "a system riding a cold front"
I'm not a seer... it's a pattern.
A meteorological pattern.
The pattern called for this to happen.

Michael embedded in The Front.

Below shows concerns on where I live.
I'll believe it when I see it.

Yes took things in from the balcony... 
I have batteries left over from Florence if power goes out.
Candles, canned food if I lose power...
...better now with Michael than Florence.
Cool weather pushes in behind The Front.

Look at those temperatures.

40s at night on Friday.
After Wilma in Miami it was easier than...
...after Andrew on Miami Beach.
Hurricanes that ride a front...
...flip the switch and turn the cold air on.
Again hurricanes help move air around the atmosphere.
That is why they exist they transport energy.

Where does Michael go down the road?
It's a long, long road.
Where does Michael go today?
Over my head... over the Carolinas and Virginia.

In Panama Beach there's an Air Force Base.
That's a fighter jet flipped upside down.

Michael knocked a train off it's tracks there as well.

It slammed through a bank and didn't look back.
A well built bank.
But when the wind gets inside... rips everything apart.

And he's still going strong.
Not a hurricane, but less than a day after landfall.
He's moving towards the Atlantic Ocean.
Sniffing fumes of more moisture.
Watch him go...

latest72hrs.gif (947×405)

Here in Raleigh I'm waiting to see what I will see.
If anything happens I'll post here...
...and of course on Twitter.
@bobbistorm on Twitter

So read my thoughts and think on what I said.
And, remember that the Hurricane Season is not over.
It's a busy hurricane season...
..and it came alive late in the season.

As for me...
Still gathering day and processing the data.
Michael was one for the history books.
Also one for meteorologists to study.
In Raleigh we have various warnings on the weather.
Michael and "The Front" are coming through today.
Rarely does Raleigh get real weather.
The problem with that is......
...when we do it makes National News.

Yeah, it's a huge hill hard to see how high.
It glazed over immediately and became ice.
A sheet of ice under falling snow.
What Raleigh really looks like in the snow is below.

Raleigh can be a beautiful place to live.
But got to tell you it's a little boring.
Rarely snows.
Hurricanes don't make it inland.
It's a Season's Lover's Dream.
Long Spring, Long Fall.
Today we are supposed to get weather...
...from Michael and "The Front"
No one wants Michael...
...but everyone wants "The Front"

The views from the Florida Panhandle are stunning.
But what is to be expected from a REAL Hurricane.
Not one of those lopsided tropical storms.
Or your typical barely a hurricane.

The view is the same as of Andrew.

There isn't much I can add today to what happened yesterday. I'm sure I'll update later today and write more. It's a big, huge mess. In some places it's just a mess, but in other places it's devastation. People who went through Michael in Panama City ...they won't want to hear about how people in Tallahassee went through there as the damage is not comparable. Much the way people in Homestead didn't want to hear about how bad Andrew was in Hialeah and Coral Gables. ln truth Coral Gables is a beautiful city filled with more trees than most people usually see in the "Miami Area" and those oaks and hardwoods that make Coral Gables so beautiful were ripped to shreds. People do love their trees. Miamians love their palm trees, Carolinians love their pine trees. No one likes to see them ripped to shreds, but it pales in comparison to a flooded city or a town totally ripped apart by a strong Category 4 hurricane.

Love that when you put in any place on the planet into Google.
And it shows if there is a Hurricane Warning.
Awesome really.

Hurricane Michael damage below "Panama City"

Hurricane Andrew damage below.

Hurricane Andrew had stronger winds.
Hurricane Michael had lower barometric pressure.

I would venture to say Hurricane Andrew was stronger in different ways and the damage was more intense when you realize in Miami most homes are built to codes with construction and in most parts of the Panhandle you have homes built to less codes and the homes are more wooden construction. The truth is every intense hurricane is different in intricately different ways. Some have little eddies of crazy wind carving out atmospheric rivers of damage and others are steady, solid bulks of hurricane force winds swirling in a more predictable manner. Some carry huge risks for tornadoes, especially later in the season as they tend to hook up with cold fronts and the tornadoes happen far from the center. Some hurricanes have all their wind in one round, neat center circulating fast around a cloudless eye and a bit further out it's all tropical storm force winds and squalls. And often until it makes landfall we just aren't sure how it will play out. Yes, storm surge is easy to forecast for a small narrow barrier island. But not everything is so simple and even landfall is hard to figure especially with Major Hurricanes where the eye sometimes wobbles within a general track and often the storm comes in parallel to the coast as Charley did or David did so every small variation in the track can mean a huge difference as to who gets landfall. 

Yes, this hurricane formed under strong shear and that's rare but I've seen it before. Yes, Florence punched into dry air the whole way at a latitude that would not support that sort of development especially with SAL everywhere and yet she became a Major Hurricane in her own right in "negative conditions" think of Albert Edison and how a child who could barely make it through school was able to create something that none of us can live without today. Mark Zuckerberg was never thought of as a "friendly" guy, not popular by any means yet he made a fortune and developed a social media platform that is based on being "friends" and being social. Hurricanes defy the rules sometimes and Major Hurricanes defy the rules in major ways. That's where we are today.

I wrote part of this post while talking to my son Moe. It's good to know my in-laws down in Tallahassee are good but their beautiful area took a beating. Nothing like Mexico Beach but trees are down and the power is out and it's a huge mess. My daughter-in-law Kristin is from there and we have become close as a family; I really like her mother a lot.. about as much as I like her and my granddaughter Olivia. Families expand with love over time. Her mother asked me to go back with her for Thanksgiving last year after the wedding in St. George Island, but I had to go back to Miami as I was driving back with my daughter and my grandson Judah; didn't want them alone in the car as it's a long drive. In Miami I had an awesome Thanksgiving with my daughter-in-law Rachel's family that is Cuban where I got to have Flan as well as incredibly delicious food with a ton of kids, relatives and dogs running around everywhere. Where will I be this Thanksgiving? Not sure. New York or Raleigh, probably Raleigh. 

I love writing this blog. I love my kids. I love the stupid pine trees that are beginning to sway in the breeze off and on more on now than off. And, hopefully Raleigh will be okay and I'll go to the NC State Fair next week.

Stay tuned. Stay safe. Michael will be gone tomorrow. But his ugly legacy will live on for a long time while the Florida Panhandle and it's beautiful waterfront property tries to pick up the pieces.

There has been no video from St. George Island.
The one house that shows a storm surge is on the Bay.

As for me.. I'm in Raleigh.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter.

Ps... It's funny my son Moe was trying to find information on St. George Island an interesting way I wouldn't have thought of... Moe is one of those kids who had to learn things his own way as school was not his thing; he has a bit of ADD as a few of my kids do and he found ways to work around the system and survive and thrive. Kids who don't follow rules well when young don't do well in school and kids who want to do other things than sit in a boring class find ways to do other things.  I have a touch of ADD but it never bothered my school learning, I thrive in a classroom he thrives out in the world. So he was going through Facebook looking for Facebook Live Videos of people who lived in Panama City and St. George. He found great videos with live time information. We are all different and that's a great idea. I wouldn't have thought about that ... even though I'm prone to do Facebook Live when out somewhere new or if something is happening. Note his name starts with a M like Michael and Mitch and Matthew :)  He told me if I lost power in Raleigh we should drive down to him and his family in Miami; that's Moe but it's going to be in the 40s here this week and the NC State Fair is opening soon! Wow. I'll update later in the day. Thanks for reading and for all the support and kind words yesterday on Twitter. 

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