Updated: 11 AM HURRICANE WATCH POSTED SFL Keys - IRMA 175 WNW at 16 MPH On the Way to South Florida.. Still Going Strong 180 MPH Cat 5. People Evacuate or Hunker Down. Jose Following Behind In Irma's Tracks Into the Islands Perhaps? Katia Moving SW to Mexico. Lee Forms After That. Busy 2017 Hurricane Season to Remember

Wind Map.

Irma makes her move.



Big news is official Hurricane Watch for S FL
In Cuba they extended TS Warnings.

Cone.

3 Day very reliable.

5 Day moves about a lot.

11 AM Cone.

Updated at 5 PM.

AGAIN... that cone follows the EYE.
The cone below shows when TS winds arrive.
It can be a day ahead of the timing above.

Understand much like Hurricane Matthew last year.

The approach to the coast parallel to the coast.

Makes it almost impossible to forecast...

..exactly if a city will get the eye.

Prepare as if you expect the eye.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/145924.shtml?gm_track#contents

Link is interactive. Use it.

The cone above changes again at 5PM

It might not but they redraw it at 5PM

Note BOTH times shown above.

11 AM Discussion.
Winds down some...good.
Otherwise no major change.
Just more of the same.
Warm water, some shear eventually.
Front passes, then short wave grabs it.
You can read it here:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/071452.shtml?



Models pulling right but...
...not all of them.

Part of her circulation is over Hispaniola.

Specifically the Dominican Republic.

Moving steadily WNW.

Long loops.
Shows where it's been.
Strength, moisture it's hauling.



Note when the eye goes over land it closes up some.
Pops back over water.
Closes again over Hispaniola.
Subtle ... I'll take any weakening at all.



You can see this above on Dvorak.
Intensity held in check close to land.
SW side over land smaller.

You can also see the front that moved down..
...through Carolinas.

More obvious on the WV Loop.




How to prepare your home:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wVsMkhtBFLM

Gas App:
Use it and then stop using your car.
Do NOT waste gas.
You may not be able to replace it.

http://www.gasbuddy.com/App

http://www.redcross.org/

'''

8 AM same intensity and forward motion.
New coordinates

MODELS

And this is the story of the day.

People evacuating.

Big wide view below.

As Irma makes her move..

.. many are moving out of her way.

You can see Irma.

You can see the High behind her.

You can see the cold front.

UP above the cold front.

Idaho.. digging dark line.

That's the "short wave" I wrote about

Irma should lift...

...but where?

Earliest arrival of TS winds.

Tropical Storm Force Winds.

Why TS winds?

Because that's when things get sketchy.

The real trouble begins.

You'll have strong early bands before that.

But the real show begins then.

Currently.

My kids deal with this Saturday morning.

I deal with this Monday morning.

That can speed up in future forecasts.

Irma keeps moving a bit faster.

Check that graphic often.

Note it speeds up close to Miami.

Not a wide margin of error.

Newest cities in wind probs.

Again I-95 traveling North inland.

Inland cities perhaps.

Raleigh... Charlotte.

Irma may be a coastal cruiser.

But she is forecast to go deep inland.

She won't be a Cat 4 or Cat 5.

But still brings down trees.

Power Outages for a long time.

Too huge a geographic area.

Takes longer to put it back.

There is the graphic below that shows this.

The trend has been to the right.

Last night Savanna was in the cross hairs.

This morning that moves up to SC.

That big blue view I love below.

It's from last night.

Irma moved a bit WNW.

But you see the story here.

Busy season as forecast.

Statistic... Longest Cat 3 on record.

This is the link below for the whole list of cities in the Wind Probs that it seems I obsess on, but I do so for a reason. The wind probabilities go out in advance of the  movement of the cone. Sometimes you go to sleep in the wind probs, wake up and you are not in them anymore. But it gives you an early heads up as to what is possible and what may be coming down the way. Sort of a chance to run to Publix, Kroger or Aldi and stock up on your "must haves" before the cone edges into your neighborhood and everyone runs to the store. It gives you a chance to think seriously on what you will or won't do. And, obviously I'm talking for people in Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina... up all the way into Virginia, Maryland and that includes our nation's capital Washington, DC. Del Marva is on the list at some point until we see which way Irma leans. Hmnn as I type this Jim just said "even Raleigh" so I started this paragraph before he started talking fast. Cantore talks faster than me, but not my much.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT1+shtml/070902.shtml

This morning's discussion is written very well. I advise you to read it for yourself. Basically it's an extrapolation of the last discussion with current model analysis added in. Irma is moving under a huge ridge being steered for now by the Bermuda High. The oldest hurricane story in the book in September. A short wave feature is supposed to move down and help grab the storm and pull it North. How fast it grabs it, where it grabs it and the angle of movement North is still up for grabs. Will it go NNW or N very hard to say for sure and each degree can mean the difference of the eye wall over West Palm Beach or it staying just off shore.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/071054.shtml?

In Puerto Rico it stayed just to the North of the island, though they went through the storm as we watched in real time on radar. The small islands it passed over will take a long time to be able to be inhabited again. Honest as I can get here. But the bigger islands like PR and now Hispaniola it has managed to crawl along North of the coastline. Can it continue that sort of track and stay just off shore South Florida or does our luck run out regarding Major Hurricanes and landfall? Obviously places like West Palm Beach that stick out the furthest East have a higher risk of an eye making landfall directly. Some models do take this west through the Keys and pull it up into the SouthWest coast making that turn back across Florida. Some models have pulled further to the East and miss a direct landfall, however Miami, Hollywood and WPB could still get Major Hurricane force winds and their associated damage with Irma's eye offshore. Irma is that BIG size wise and there isn't much in the way to keep her in check once she slides away from Hispaniola. It is worth noting that the Dominican Republic has large mountains and currently, maybe just briefly, you can see the Southwest side of Irma looks a bit ragged. I know it's hard to call a Major Category 5 Hurricane containing winds of 180 miles per hour "ragged" but I think they were a bit generous with the wind speed this morning erring on the side of caution.  We will get recon information throughout the day and see what they do at a 11 AM. I'll update at the top for the 11 AM so you can compare and contrast with the 5 AM information in the same post. Trust me the difference of 5 MPH seems little and it didn't impress me much when they downgraded Andrew 5 MPH but it's a trend and better for it to be winding down than winding up.

That said regarding wind speed; when it leaves the North Coast of Hispaniola and it's coastal waters it will move over warmer water than it has traversed so far and some of the warmest water in the Atlantic. So whatever damage some small interaction with the coastline might do it will be fed high intensity fuel once back over the Bahamas. This hurricane story has been going on since before we have records of hurricanes or ship logs of ships that made it to safety through the storm. This is what happens in that part of the world; we often live in denial in the quiet times for a decade of two that it won't happen again. And then... come September it happens again. Each hurricane is similar and each hurricane is different and unique. The water off the coast of Miami Beach is currently 88 degrees. Irma will love that sort of high octane fuel. Not good for South Florida, even if it stays off the coast.

Leaving you with this image below. It's the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season so far. The map is being worked on in real time and you can see the whole track of Irma since it left Africa; you can see the other tracks as well.

 Interesting image above.

2017 Hurricane Season so far.

Some see Lee forming soon..

A few good Tweets online.

Obviously he buys the pulling E scenario.

Understand there are many.

But this thoughts are clear and concise.

Easy to read and to see.

I don't see any reason to disagree with the above.

He's showing the center of IRMA

Not weather far from it's eye.

Below shows you even if it stays offshore..

How the wind field could look

I say "could" because it's hard to be sure.

I do believe Irma gets picked up.

It should be more clear in 24 hours.

The feature is up over Wyoming and Idaho.

Digging down and SE.

Don't look at the cold front.

Look beyond the front.

See the river of air over Nebraska... 

Pushing SE.

That is the a player.

I don't want to go long on Katia and Jose.

Katia is running away to Mexico.

Jose is following behind.

It is very possible sadly...

...it will add insult to injury to the Islands.

90 MPH Jose.

May clip the islands.

Cone below:

Jose may loop.

Stall, loop back.

End game is unsure.

But islands are in cross hairs again.

Below is the bottom line.

Most likely...

South Florida gets a landfall from a Cat 4

IF it does go inland over Florida.

All of FL could get Hurricane Force winds.

I know you are used to me arguing with the NHC ;) (not always obviously) and giving my own thoughts. It's just so close a call that it's impossible to tell where the extremely dangerous eye of Cat 5 Irma goes as it approaches Florida. While it is possible it goes through the Keys and up the SW coast of Florida history and current atmospheric synoptic features favor it turning at South Florida or just off shore and moving parallel to the coastline very similar to last year's Matthew. However, Irma is much bigger than Matthew. I'd favor the bend just off shore speeding up as it approaches Florida and then down the road it will have some interaction and it could weaken a drop from shear as it moves further North towards another landfall somewhere around South Carolina. And, I'll add that could be the SC/NC border or closer to Georgia. Just way too soon to tell. But the story is getting closer to having it's ending written. 

What can you do? Plan, prepare.. never panic and hunker down in safe spot if you stayed. Keep your family close, in one spot together in an interior room away from windows in the safest spot in your house. Let your family know where you are staying and conserve your phone power. Keep it at full power, at some point the electricity goes out. I remember one hurricane I was on the phone talking to a close friend who does hurricanes and he was telling me the lower pressures were close to me and the power went out... old PC computer sort of went dead. When the power goes out your phones should work for emergency calls to your family to tell them what is going on but do not waste that battery power it goes quickly. And, the cell phone towers could go down as well. Sorry but true.

Lastly............. I could show you pictures of Barbuda that was heavily damaged in Irma. It's there as an island but it's pretty much destroyed. I don't really want to show the pictures as I hope and pray that doesn't happen to South Florida... to Bal Harbor that I know well or South Beach or Hollywood Boardwalk or Bayside or the new beautiful Brickell Centre in downtown Miami but it may. The pictures are passed around online. It looks like a nuclear bomb went off... some concrete structures are partially standing. Take this hurricane very seriously and do not expect a miracle but please feel free to pray for one. And, give charity while you can to places who were destroyed and people in need at the Red Cross. 

http://www.redcross.org/

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter. Follow me for more immediate updates or discussion. I'd love to play a nice Jimmy Buffett song today, but you need this information way more. Stay safe, stay strong! I'll update again at 11 AM at the top and I may add some links here throughout the day for helpful sites.

UPDATED 11 PM... 5 Day Cone Extended UP through NC, SC, GA...Cat 5 Hurricane IRMA Makes Move Towards PR then Takes on FL. People Evacuate or Hunker Down. Then Where Does She Go. 3 Hurricanes in Atlantic Jose Following Irma... Katia Running Away SW Towards Pacific...

11 PM

Forecast points still slide along the coast of Florida.

No way of knowing for sure yet if it makes landfall.

Either way the HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL.

When we say "landfall" we mean the center of the eye.

The part of FL that sticks out the most... in danger. 

Then it moves up towards Savannah.

Maybe Brunswick, Georgia area.

I can promise you this cone will change again.

Subtle changes but change it will.

NRL Map ... Huge Area.

Wind probabilities now go up through DC.

This is a story bigger than Florida.

I love Florida.

I'm a Florida girl.......

...living in Carolina.

This storm impacts both my homes.

My family there and friends here.

I have kids on stuck on the Florida Turnpike.

I have kids in Orlando tonight.

I have kids in Hollywood and Walnut Creek.

Broward County.

Here in Raleigh we have our own view of Irma.

Again this is aiming at Florida.

But it's so much bigger than Florida.

Irma could affect the whole East Coast.

Sooooooo... 

Being honest this is huge for me.

Huge for many.

Hugely impacts I-95 cities.

All the way possibly up through DC.

Tomorrow maybe further.

Governor of NORTH Carolina..

issuing State of Emergency in the morning.

See wind probs below.

Discussion highlights from NHC.

Keeping the cone the same.

Models pulling East... 

...but the aren't sold on that yet.

Waiting on over night models.

And the "short wave" to develop.

Add in the final coordinates from NHC 

It's a 5 day forecast.

It can change.

So you are wondering where it is at 110 MPH.

If you put those cords into Google Search.

Near Savannah, Georgia.

That's not a given but a forecast.

Forecasts change.

And there's Irma below.

Probably a whole generation of girls named Irma soon.

Happens. Lots of Andrews born in the early 90s.

Irma's moving at a steady clip.

Note the size below of Irma.

Look at the size of Irma.

Wider than the State of Florida.

This should give you a better perspective of the concerns on the size and intensity of Irma. Should Irma stay off shore of South Florida part of it will cover Florida with Tropical Storm force winds and unknown magnitude hurricane force winds. I say unknown because until we see it's track we won't know if Davie gets Cat 3 force winds or if it gets Cat 2 or if WPB gets the eye and Wellington gets Category 4 or 3. It's too far away still and unknown. What we know is all of Florida can possibly get close to Hurricane force winds anywhere from 75 MPH to Category 5. You thought in 2017 we'd know for sure right? Hey, getting closer. Hey we know it's coming; that's more than most people knew in 1926 when a Category 4 Hurricane came into South Florida moving WNW. SLAMMED IN... few had real warning or an understanding of what a hurricane was... so we at least we know that. We can watch it on our phones travel across the Caribbean. We can watch the radar in San Juan. We have warning to prepare, to board up or to hit the road. The NHC is doing the best it can really. So am I and many of my friends who blog, post and own websites. We are all trying to educate, warn and make you feel you understand what is going on better. For many who have been through a life altering hurricane they feel the need to know details. Knowledge is power. I hope I have given you some extra knowledge tonight and tomorrow I'll write more on models that came in over night and the new track with it's new cone and I'll give you  more my thoughts on what I really think is most likely to happen. Different possibilities and hopefully some ideas that are helpful to get you though the storm safely.

Take care... Sweet Tropical Dreams, BobbiStorm... or really good morning if you read this before I wake up and post again. Some images of Irma in the Islands below and Florida getting closer every day. 

What an eye..

Irma hovering just ENE of PR.

Moving WNW at 16 MPH.

As close as it gets.

Close up of that graphic.

The area North of Miami

From WPB to the Cape..

Most likely to get the eye.

That can and will change.

This is still days out.

But as of today...

In the cross hairs of Irma.

Another link you can use that loops.
Shows Irma touching FL coast.
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

I want to explain something.

It's confusing.

There are 2 "cones" put out by NHC.

Side by side.

One is TS winds. Other is CENTER of IRMA

For some reason this is confusing to people looking at graphics. I keep getting people asking me when the storm is coming as they see two different images. People keep saying different things. The NHC in their official cone tracks the EYE...the center of the storm. They tell you to look at the whole cone, however they show the forecast points. Monday at 2 PM they show Irma just off shore Savannah as of the 5 pm forecast package today. On the right that's the official cone. On the left is the TS winds earliest possible arrival of winds. That same area would be getting sustained Tropical Storm force winds by Sunday way in advance of the Hurricane Force winds. Trust me there is a difference. The reason they put out this product on the left is to tell you the time when you should be totally hunkered down safely inside not venturing out for one last run out in search of donuts and coffee. It's the time when you should be INSIDE and expecting Irma to begin. That doesn't include strong squalls that may have hurricane force gusts bringing down a tree on your patio or the neighbors pine tree snapping from a strong gust above 100 MPH. So keep that in mind That's your guide to be home, in a well boarded up house if you did not evacuate. 

I have several kids in Miami staying in homes with shutters not in evacuation areas but in Broward County and I have several kids on the road North bound. Big family, multiple arrangements. It's going to be a hard time no matter how you cut it. Facing IRMA in South Florida or WPB or VERO BEACH will not be easy. Being in the Carolinas or North Florida being chased by Irma unable to return back to Miami due to severe damage and roads closed will not be pretty either. It's a decision each adult child has to make for themselves. Once years ago we went to my brothers, and two kids said they were staying at a friend nearby in a safe house with shutters. I forgot something important. My brother and I went back and there were several kids sitting with candles in my back family room and I threatened to call the police to make them leave. Being a single mother you often need back up. Police came... told them to listen to their mother. I kid you not and had to leave because there was a tornado down the block. Never easy being a parent. You got to do what you got to do. But, when you are a parent with grown kids they will do what they will do. And, you pray a lot... 

IF Irma moves over Hispaniola in ANY WAY.. even staying North or NE of the coast it could in some small way disrupt it's circulation enough to knock it down. If not... only going to get bigger. With every eye wall replacement cycle it grows a bit in size, the eye gets bigger not smaller and then it hits the very warm, hot waters of the Bahamas. Approaching South Florida from ESE moving WNW. The winds could actually go down but the size (width) could grow making hurricane force winds go out further from the eye than they are now. We have to wait and see this happens or doesn't happen in real time. 

After it begins to turn North after a forecast short wave erodes the High Pressure to the North and it becomes a problem for Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina. Wind probabilities already go North into Richmond, Virginia. That could change, but it's been a pretty set track so far and so far Irma has been hitting it's forecast points so seems the NHC has a good handle on Irma. The updated advisory below gives information and shows it battering the Virgin Islands and moving on to Puerto Rico.

5 PM

18.7 N  64.1 W

WNW at 16 MPH

WINDS: 185 MPH....

Irma in all her glory.

Furious looking Cane.

Dangerous Hurricane 

3 Hurricanes in the Atlantic.

Katia in GOM

Center Stage IRMA

Further East Jose

Another view.

Water Vapor Loop.

Wind Probabilities mentioned above.

Discussion below.

Please read explains the models.

Forecast wind speed over the next 120 Hours.

Models

You can see all the models show this.

They all curve it North.

This happens often.

I took enough classes in meteorology in college to tell you the answer you put on the test is that "hurricanes want to go poleward" and if you say "they go where they want to go" you better go into botany or geology cause you'll do better with rocks that don't move around as much as hurricanes. When it sees an opening it will take it. The ONLY thing that could change this scenario in any way is if a high pressure ridge builds in stronger than expected and the short wave trough expected to weaken the ridge doesn't show up for the party. Katia is way West of Irma moistening up the environment there. Jose is following along behind, sort of docile but a hurricane so at some point it has it's own day in the sun. For now I'm not going to talk about them beyond saying a summary.

Katia seems afraid of Irma and is forecast to go SW to the Pacific. Okay it was nice having you in the GOM seems some prayers were answered there. Jose seems to want to go where Irma has gone. Perhaps it will go out to sea or clip the Outer Banks. Too far out to sea for now but only adds to a sense of misery to continue pointing out we are knee deep into the Hurricane Season. In theory Jose will suffer being in Irma's wake and could wobble, bobble or make loops in the Atlantic. Its too far past the time frame and not important now. Other than to know... there are 3 hurricanes actively in the Atlantic. When the hurricane season gets busy... it rolls.

That's what they said.

Now I want to show you some hurricane history.

Below you will see hurricanes that are similar ...

..to Irma.

Not always in intensity or size.

But in the approach to FL and the SE.

Last Year.. Matthew.

Ignore the Caribbean part ..

Approach up the coast.

I do think Irma will come closer to Florida.

At this point...

...things could change Irma could trace Matthew's track.

Floyd. 

Turned Just off shore before Florida.

We couldn't believe it would.

NHC nailed it.

Floyd turned.

Irma may not turn as fast.

Hurricane David.

A killer in the Islands.

VERY SIMILAR TRACK

Irma forecast not to go over Hispaniola.

Cut NNW and missed Miami ..

Miami was on the SW side.

Moved inland further up the coast.

NRL map is below.

Good map 

I drew this map earlier today.

Before the 5 PM.

Just wondering where Irma goes.

Irma below......

Irma staring at Katia.

You'd run away too...
if she was looking at you.

And people are trying to get out South Florida.

A mass migration North is on the way.

Anyway out of town.

Some are staying.

Some left.

Some are leaving.

Pray for all now please.

What would you do? 

Would you stay or would you go?

God speed to everyone in her path.

Or those seeking safety on the road!

I'll update in real time tonight.

Stay tuned.

Stay safe.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

PS...Listen to the audio. Hurricane David 1979

It was a Cat 5 Killer in the Islands.

Not as strong approaching Miami

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_David

Part of life in Florida.

You go decades with no hurricanes.

Then there's a hurricane warning.

And you got to do what you got to do...

..to survive.