Updated: 11 AM HURRICANE WATCH POSTED SFL Keys - IRMA 175 WNW at 16 MPH On the Way to South Florida.. Still Going Strong 180 MPH Cat 5. People Evacuate or Hunker Down. Jose Following Behind In Irma's Tracks Into the Islands Perhaps? Katia Moving SW to Mexico. Lee Forms After That. Busy 2017 Hurricane Season to Remember

Wind Map.

Irma makes her move.



Big news is official Hurricane Watch for S FL
In Cuba they extended TS Warnings.

Cone.

3 Day very reliable.

5 Day moves about a lot.

11 AM Cone.

Updated at 5 PM.

AGAIN... that cone follows the EYE.
The cone below shows when TS winds arrive.
It can be a day ahead of the timing above.

Understand much like Hurricane Matthew last year.

The approach to the coast parallel to the coast.

Makes it almost impossible to forecast...

..exactly if a city will get the eye.

Prepare as if you expect the eye.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/145924.shtml?gm_track#contents

Link is interactive. Use it.

The cone above changes again at 5PM

It might not but they redraw it at 5PM

Note BOTH times shown above.

11 AM Discussion.
Winds down some...good.
Otherwise no major change.
Just more of the same.
Warm water, some shear eventually.
Front passes, then short wave grabs it.
You can read it here:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/071452.shtml?



Models pulling right but...
...not all of them.

Part of her circulation is over Hispaniola.

Specifically the Dominican Republic.

Moving steadily WNW.

Long loops.
Shows where it's been.
Strength, moisture it's hauling.



Note when the eye goes over land it closes up some.
Pops back over water.
Closes again over Hispaniola.
Subtle ... I'll take any weakening at all.



You can see this above on Dvorak.
Intensity held in check close to land.
SW side over land smaller.

You can also see the front that moved down..
...through Carolinas.

More obvious on the WV Loop.




How to prepare your home:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wVsMkhtBFLM

Gas App:
Use it and then stop using your car.
Do NOT waste gas.
You may not be able to replace it.

http://www.gasbuddy.com/App

http://www.redcross.org/

'''

8 AM same intensity and forward motion.
New coordinates

MODELS

And this is the story of the day.

People evacuating.

Big wide view below.

As Irma makes her move..

.. many are moving out of her way.

You can see Irma.

You can see the High behind her.

You can see the cold front.

UP above the cold front.

Idaho.. digging dark line.

That's the "short wave" I wrote about

Irma should lift...

...but where?

Earliest arrival of TS winds.

Tropical Storm Force Winds.

Why TS winds?

Because that's when things get sketchy.

The real trouble begins.

You'll have strong early bands before that.

But the real show begins then.

Currently.

My kids deal with this Saturday morning.

I deal with this Monday morning.

That can speed up in future forecasts.

Irma keeps moving a bit faster.

Check that graphic often.

Note it speeds up close to Miami.

Not a wide margin of error.

Newest cities in wind probs.

Again I-95 traveling North inland.

Inland cities perhaps.

Raleigh... Charlotte.

Irma may be a coastal cruiser.

But she is forecast to go deep inland.

She won't be a Cat 4 or Cat 5.

But still brings down trees.

Power Outages for a long time.

Too huge a geographic area.

Takes longer to put it back.

There is the graphic below that shows this.

The trend has been to the right.

Last night Savanna was in the cross hairs.

This morning that moves up to SC.

That big blue view I love below.

It's from last night.

Irma moved a bit WNW.

But you see the story here.

Busy season as forecast.

Statistic... Longest Cat 3 on record.

This is the link below for the whole list of cities in the Wind Probs that it seems I obsess on, but I do so for a reason. The wind probabilities go out in advance of the  movement of the cone. Sometimes you go to sleep in the wind probs, wake up and you are not in them anymore. But it gives you an early heads up as to what is possible and what may be coming down the way. Sort of a chance to run to Publix, Kroger or Aldi and stock up on your "must haves" before the cone edges into your neighborhood and everyone runs to the store. It gives you a chance to think seriously on what you will or won't do. And, obviously I'm talking for people in Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina... up all the way into Virginia, Maryland and that includes our nation's capital Washington, DC. Del Marva is on the list at some point until we see which way Irma leans. Hmnn as I type this Jim just said "even Raleigh" so I started this paragraph before he started talking fast. Cantore talks faster than me, but not my much.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT1+shtml/070902.shtml

This morning's discussion is written very well. I advise you to read it for yourself. Basically it's an extrapolation of the last discussion with current model analysis added in. Irma is moving under a huge ridge being steered for now by the Bermuda High. The oldest hurricane story in the book in September. A short wave feature is supposed to move down and help grab the storm and pull it North. How fast it grabs it, where it grabs it and the angle of movement North is still up for grabs. Will it go NNW or N very hard to say for sure and each degree can mean the difference of the eye wall over West Palm Beach or it staying just off shore.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/071054.shtml?

In Puerto Rico it stayed just to the North of the island, though they went through the storm as we watched in real time on radar. The small islands it passed over will take a long time to be able to be inhabited again. Honest as I can get here. But the bigger islands like PR and now Hispaniola it has managed to crawl along North of the coastline. Can it continue that sort of track and stay just off shore South Florida or does our luck run out regarding Major Hurricanes and landfall? Obviously places like West Palm Beach that stick out the furthest East have a higher risk of an eye making landfall directly. Some models do take this west through the Keys and pull it up into the SouthWest coast making that turn back across Florida. Some models have pulled further to the East and miss a direct landfall, however Miami, Hollywood and WPB could still get Major Hurricane force winds and their associated damage with Irma's eye offshore. Irma is that BIG size wise and there isn't much in the way to keep her in check once she slides away from Hispaniola. It is worth noting that the Dominican Republic has large mountains and currently, maybe just briefly, you can see the Southwest side of Irma looks a bit ragged. I know it's hard to call a Major Category 5 Hurricane containing winds of 180 miles per hour "ragged" but I think they were a bit generous with the wind speed this morning erring on the side of caution.  We will get recon information throughout the day and see what they do at a 11 AM. I'll update at the top for the 11 AM so you can compare and contrast with the 5 AM information in the same post. Trust me the difference of 5 MPH seems little and it didn't impress me much when they downgraded Andrew 5 MPH but it's a trend and better for it to be winding down than winding up.

That said regarding wind speed; when it leaves the North Coast of Hispaniola and it's coastal waters it will move over warmer water than it has traversed so far and some of the warmest water in the Atlantic. So whatever damage some small interaction with the coastline might do it will be fed high intensity fuel once back over the Bahamas. This hurricane story has been going on since before we have records of hurricanes or ship logs of ships that made it to safety through the storm. This is what happens in that part of the world; we often live in denial in the quiet times for a decade of two that it won't happen again. And then... come September it happens again. Each hurricane is similar and each hurricane is different and unique. The water off the coast of Miami Beach is currently 88 degrees. Irma will love that sort of high octane fuel. Not good for South Florida, even if it stays off the coast.

Leaving you with this image below. It's the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season so far. The map is being worked on in real time and you can see the whole track of Irma since it left Africa; you can see the other tracks as well.

 Interesting image above.

2017 Hurricane Season so far.

Some see Lee forming soon..

A few good Tweets online.

Obviously he buys the pulling E scenario.

Understand there are many.

But this thoughts are clear and concise.

Easy to read and to see.

I don't see any reason to disagree with the above.

He's showing the center of IRMA

Not weather far from it's eye.

Below shows you even if it stays offshore..

How the wind field could look

I say "could" because it's hard to be sure.

I do believe Irma gets picked up.

It should be more clear in 24 hours.

The feature is up over Wyoming and Idaho.

Digging down and SE.

Don't look at the cold front.

Look beyond the front.

See the river of air over Nebraska... 

Pushing SE.

That is the a player.

I don't want to go long on Katia and Jose.

Katia is running away to Mexico.

Jose is following behind.

It is very possible sadly...

...it will add insult to injury to the Islands.

90 MPH Jose.

May clip the islands.

Cone below:

Jose may loop.

Stall, loop back.

End game is unsure.

But islands are in cross hairs again.

Below is the bottom line.

Most likely...

South Florida gets a landfall from a Cat 4

IF it does go inland over Florida.

All of FL could get Hurricane Force winds.

I know you are used to me arguing with the NHC ;) (not always obviously) and giving my own thoughts. It's just so close a call that it's impossible to tell where the extremely dangerous eye of Cat 5 Irma goes as it approaches Florida. While it is possible it goes through the Keys and up the SW coast of Florida history and current atmospheric synoptic features favor it turning at South Florida or just off shore and moving parallel to the coastline very similar to last year's Matthew. However, Irma is much bigger than Matthew. I'd favor the bend just off shore speeding up as it approaches Florida and then down the road it will have some interaction and it could weaken a drop from shear as it moves further North towards another landfall somewhere around South Carolina. And, I'll add that could be the SC/NC border or closer to Georgia. Just way too soon to tell. But the story is getting closer to having it's ending written. 

What can you do? Plan, prepare.. never panic and hunker down in safe spot if you stayed. Keep your family close, in one spot together in an interior room away from windows in the safest spot in your house. Let your family know where you are staying and conserve your phone power. Keep it at full power, at some point the electricity goes out. I remember one hurricane I was on the phone talking to a close friend who does hurricanes and he was telling me the lower pressures were close to me and the power went out... old PC computer sort of went dead. When the power goes out your phones should work for emergency calls to your family to tell them what is going on but do not waste that battery power it goes quickly. And, the cell phone towers could go down as well. Sorry but true.

Lastly............. I could show you pictures of Barbuda that was heavily damaged in Irma. It's there as an island but it's pretty much destroyed. I don't really want to show the pictures as I hope and pray that doesn't happen to South Florida... to Bal Harbor that I know well or South Beach or Hollywood Boardwalk or Bayside or the new beautiful Brickell Centre in downtown Miami but it may. The pictures are passed around online. It looks like a nuclear bomb went off... some concrete structures are partially standing. Take this hurricane very seriously and do not expect a miracle but please feel free to pray for one. And, give charity while you can to places who were destroyed and people in need at the Red Cross. 

http://www.redcross.org/

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter. Follow me for more immediate updates or discussion. I'd love to play a nice Jimmy Buffett song today, but you need this information way more. Stay safe, stay strong! I'll update again at 11 AM at the top and I may add some links here throughout the day for helpful sites.

UPDATED... WNW at 15 MPH...Still 185 MPH Cat 5 Irma Followed By Jose and TD 13 Forms in the GOM/BOC. Evacuations Begin in South Florida.

WNW is the big news.

A drop faster too.

916 MB. Deeper.

Cone below:

I want you to note the cone on the 5th day...

...bends to the North a bit.

At some point Irma will go North.

Note the shaded part of the discussion.

The front is going through.

The trough should begin to dive.

They comment on the models.

The GFS has pulled to the East.

The Euro is heavily favored by the NHC

What the EURO does on it's next run is huge.

Does it stay West or go back East a bit?

So many questions. 

The forecast is for it to stay a Cat 5 for days.

Who knew 140 MPH would sound better?

Wind probs extended up to SC.

Beaufort SC.

I want you to look at the water vapor image below.

You can see the dark air (high) to NE of Irma.

You can see the front moving down.

The short wave trough is hidden a bit ... 

Keep watching.

I'll update first thing in the morning.

Going to sleep.

I need sleep.

We all need sleep.

Again please read below.

There is valuable information for you.

If you have family in Florida.

Make sure they only stay in a house with shutters.

It's hard to even book a flight out currently.

Trust me.. I know.

Big decisions tomorrow on Irma.

When South Florida goes in the 3 Day cone...

And lastly pray for the islands tonight.

This is basically a Pacific Typhoon..

In the Atlantic..

@bobbistorm on Twitter

***

Cone:

The difference between KW and Havana is 90 Miles.

Again remember this regarding cone error:

"about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5"

There is so much traffic I couldn't get the NHC site to load.

I had to go to Mike's page to see the cone.

http://spaghettimodels.com/

Understand this cone may change in 6 hours.

It's a fluid cone updated.

It's not a cone set in stone.

Until you are in the 3rd day...

..hard to say what will be for sure.

We now have TD 13 and Jose.

I'll discuss them at the end of this blog.

You can see TD13 in the GOM.

Jose is behind Irma.

Irma is center stage.

Discussion:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/052052.shtml?

Main points I want you to remember are:

Doesn't get much stronger than this.

As for models they disagree.

What else is new.

Good graphics abound.

But they are all long range guesses.

Look at the GFS...

Nice image.

That would be the cone aka GFS.

All models show a hard right turn.

Many hurricanes do that...

...some refuse to make the turn.

Hurricane Donna 1960 turned late.

It's a good analog storm.

I wrote about Hurricane Donna few days ago.

Anthony is a good one to follow on Twitter.

Another good one is Dabuh who I show often.

I agree with him.

Beautiful, but you feel bad saying it.

But look at that image below.

That is about as perfect as it gets.

So let's get down to the busy tropics.

Below we see 3 systems with advisories.

Tropical Storm Jose.

Following along in Irma's wake.

The basics are below.

Not worth doing much with now..

...be aware it is there.

Tropical Depression 13.

It cut that way...sorry.

Not a comment.

I want to show the advisory.

Knowing details teaches you much.

 

So what you see from the models above is:

They are tightly clustered going into the Islands.

Most take it up and over the Islands.

Somehow Hispaniola has not one track over it now.

Odd... 

Cuba is hit by many models.

Then Irma starts to turn.

Somewhere.

The basics are seen on the loop below:

There is a front that is mercifully going to go through NC soon, supposedly, and then a high pressure ridge sets in that keeps IRMA from moving North however Irma does begin to move WNW soon if the forecast is correct. Then what is called a "short wave" comes down and begins to erode that ridge and Irma feels the pull of the poles and begins to pull more to the North and yet we aren't sure exactly where that will be. Why? Because the short wave is not yet on the scene and the front that will help support a ridge has still not moved through. When forecasting weather every factor relies on another factor and it's not easy. Especially in early September when even a "strong cold front" can disappoint and a minor change in the forecast can make a major difference in the actual track of the hurricane. 

Add into the mix a Category 5 hurricane carries it's own High Pressure system aloft, think of it as a portable generator it takes on the road. At some point that High can sometimes help make it's own steering currents. Models are good but have had little real experience with such strong Category 5 Hurricanes and so will they handle Irma properly. Is the GFS correct or the EURO? Does Irma go through the Keys and then make a turn or does it turn before the Florida coast or over the Florida Coast? How much of the Cuban landscape will see Irma or not at all? I wish I could tell you.

Let's look at 3 hurricanes that could teach us something about Irma and it shows you the problems the models are having agreeing on the 4th and 5th day as well as the long range period.

Hurricane Matthew...

Made a hard right turn...

Went N from the coast of South America.

Crossed Cuba...

..made landfall in Miami.

Traveled US 1 North.

Hurricane Georges refused to turn NW.

NHC forecast a turn over and over.

It just kept going WNW.

Hurricane Donna mentioned above.

Up over and Islands.

Through the Florida Keys.

A mess in Miami.

Turned in South of Tampa.

Crossed the State.

Made landfall again in Carolinas.

Up the coast flooding problems.

Review the blog I wrote days ago discussing long tracking hurricanes that dipped WSW that made landfall around Florida.  It has much good information and shows how sometimes a hurricane turns fast to the right and surprises everyone. Sometimes the NHC hits the nail on the forecast and it stays off shore by 50 miles. A real game of playing chicken with a hurricane. 

I want to bring up a variety of issues for you to think on when debating what to do regarding Irma if you live in Florida. And, again note what I said about many models clustered onto a track North towards Atlanta and South Carolina and the rest of Georgia. During Wilma and Katrina in Miami the whole electric grid went down and most of us had no electric from a week to two weeks. We are talking a relatively weak hurricane; the kind that in the past took out trees and did minor structural damage. Yet, for whatever reason, the electric grid went out and it took forever to fix it. The fact that many across a wide area in Miami Dade County were affected made it more difficult to repair. Many lineman from all over the country are helping out in Texas restore power. I'd say things are spread a little thin and it could slow down the repair in Florida. The strongest part of Irma may miss you and you will still lose power and it will be a while before it's repaired.

Sometimes when preparing it's the little things you don't think on. Since Hurricane Andrew I save small "to go" packages of mayo, ketchup, towel wipes, etc. When you shouldn't be opening up your fridge but keeping it shut tight using those small to go packages is great. Note if your power is out in Miami it will be in the High 80s.. near 90 degrees every day so you can't leave food out... but you can't keep opening the fridge. I've heard people talk on heating up cans of ravioli... It's nice but if you have a large family that's not going to work time wise. Think dry cereal, peanut butter and items that can be easily opened with a HAND HELD can opener.  Remember crayons? They still work to keep kids busy. You need to keep all your devices fully charged and plugged in. You never know when you will lose power and you can't have a long talk on the phone assuring your mother you are safe unless the phone is fully charged. At some point the cellphone towers may go down and you will lose your phone service. If you have power you can still take pictures... Not funny really. It was a mess in Miami after Wilma and that was a minor hurricane over Florida not a Major.

Let's say worse case scenario and Miami gets a Major Hurricane the whole normal of life goes woosh with the wind. Street signs are gone, light signals are gone and there is no cable. I never saw what happened after Andrew hit until a friend sent me video from TWC so I could see their coverage after landfall. It took us MONTHS to have cable again in my area that in theory only had Category 2 winds with strong gusts and some localized tornadoes. MONTHS... without cable.... you'll have to listen to a battery powered radio to find out if we are at war with Korea or some other natural disasters descends on America.

That brings us to the next point. Make sure you have a BATTERY OPERATED RADIO so you can listen to your local news, because you will not be able to watch the news and cable will be out and now we can't watch TV without cable anymore unless you ghetto rigged your old TV to avoid using cable. Oh... NETFLIX and HULU will be unavailable most likely. I hope you have books, magazines and you know how to play checkers and backgammon. My online friends called often after those back to back hurricanes in Miami that knocked out my power and cable for weeks. You start to appreciate the sky, the stars and how really fast it gets dark in the house when you don't have electricity. I used to make the kids sleep in their clothes with their shoes on or near by because by 4 PM the house got dark as we didn't have a lot of windows. Great for being in during a hurricane but no one could find anything by 5 PM and we didn't want to waste the flashlight we needed to make sure that wasn't a fruit rat that ran by inside the living room as we had no electric .... I am not kidding. Life AFTER the hurricane is not for the faint of heart, should you be lucky and survive the hurricane.

That brings us to windows. Do not rely on your 14 year old son to be telling the truth when he says he closed the window tight. Nope... they lie, kids lie. They want to look outside, they thought it was closed... they are lazy. Your home is only as strong as the weakest window that is locked tight. If the wind gets into your house it destroys. All windows for a Major Hurricane must be boarded up. Don't rely on the nice lady who used to live in your house that she went through hurricanes and never had a problem. Make sure they are locked tight. I have a son who lived for a while in a nice Condo on the Penthouse Floor in Golden Beach and the sliding glass door didn't lock. It had a great view, a wonderful balcony and they never had a serious hurricane. Really... in that scenario the wind would enter the apartment and look for a way out. Your apartment building is only as strong as the weakest condo someone never locked up before going on a long vacation last week.

I don't mean to scare you I am being honest from my vast knowledge and way too much experience. Learn from my mistakes and my friends mistakes.

If you are a single mother or father alone with small kids you may want to find another person to stay with you as it's always good to have more adults in a room filled with children. There is some measure of safety in numbers and you can help each other if things get sketchy or a child God Forbid gets hurt. I went to my mother's house that had mostly shutters for a minimal storm because my ex-husband had to go out of town as his mother was dying. She didn't want me alone with all the kids. So she opened up the sofa that had a bed inside and told the children to lie down. One of my little ones started jumping up and down at the excitement of sleeping at Grandma's house and cut himself and needed stitches so in the middle of the weak Hurricane Floyd in 1987 we had to drive to my friend's house on South Beach with light signals swaying in the wind to get him stitched up. Sometimes it's good to have other people there, my brother was with me we couldn't believe we were driving at the height of the storm with me putting pressure on his bleeding so he didn't lose too much blood. Memorable.

Another issue is evacuation. If you want to get out of Miami how are you going to do it? If you want to fly out... do it NOW. And, good luck at the airport cause it's gonna be nuts but if you feel the need do so but do it soon or you will lose your window. I had a long talk with a few of my kids today on this subject. If you want to drive out it's like this. So does almost everyone else. You will be stuck in traffic, low on gas with screaming kids in a car and as you drive North people from Port St Lucie add in and then people from Vero Beach decide to evacuate and it's not an easy choice to make. It may be the right one for you specifically but I can not promise you Miami, as one example, will get the hurricane dead on and not just mild impact. I can't promise you it will to to Miami or Tampa or through the Florida Keys moving WNW into the Gulf of Mexico. Once gone you will not be able to get back for a while so it's a big decision and one you need to make quickly. If you stay... stay somewhere that has a good roof, shutters and is not low lying or close to water than will flood the area. Know your evacuation zones, know your comfort zones and make a decision early. Also be aware in past evacuations of South Florida people were stuck on the highway and ran out of gas and could not get gas. I am not saying not to.. I'm saying if you are doing so do it as soon as possible.

I'll be back with more updates throughout the night. I'll add in thoughts and advice that hopefully is helpful to someone reading this...

http://weather.gc.ca/hurricane/track_e.html

Canadian Hurricane Tracking Map. It's not looking good for Key West, however I can pretty much promise you one thing. The cone will nudge East and West, North and South over the next few days. Miami was in the 5 Day cone for Hurricane Sandy and then we weren't.

Besos BobbiStorm
I'm on Twitter nonstop if you have any questions and I do faster updates there.

Think this out... do what you got to do ..as my Daddy used to say and protect you and your loved ones. If your office is closed down tomorrow ...take with you whatever is valuable it might not be there when you get back if you experience a Major Hurricane.

Keep your gas tanks filled as of NOW ..do not make necessary trips many places in Miami and South Florida are currently out of gas. Don't waste it.

Also MONEY... $$$ get it out of an ATM while they have money because when the storm hits you will not be able to use the ATM and just prior to landfall the machines run out of money. It sounds simplistic like needing a hand operated can opener but with all the stress of a hurricane... people forget the simply things.

Just trying to remind people of simple stuff.

AGAIN... it's just as logical that this monster hurricane stays off of the SE coast of Florida by fifty miles or so and moves up the coast towards a landfall further North. It's not an easy set up, rarely is it ever an easy set up or a slam dunk. The only hurricane I can remember that was a sure thing was Andrew... blocked by a ridge to the North it turned West and had no other track available. It was scary, usually there are options. Currently there are a few options.

Writing this before the 11 PM...it has begun to move WNW... or close to it. Does that mean it's going to make the turn to the right just before Florida? We can hope so but we won't be sure until it does.

So stay tuned.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

Besos BobbiStorm