UPDATED... WNW at 15 MPH...Still 185 MPH Cat 5 Irma Followed By Jose and TD 13 Forms in the GOM/BOC. Evacuations Begin in South Florida.

WNW is the big news.

A drop faster too.

916 MB. Deeper.

Cone below:

I want you to note the cone on the 5th day...

...bends to the North a bit.

At some point Irma will go North.

Note the shaded part of the discussion.

The front is going through.

The trough should begin to dive.

They comment on the models.

The GFS has pulled to the East.

The Euro is heavily favored by the NHC

What the EURO does on it's next run is huge.

Does it stay West or go back East a bit?

So many questions. 

The forecast is for it to stay a Cat 5 for days.

Who knew 140 MPH would sound better?

Wind probs extended up to SC.

Beaufort SC.

I want you to look at the water vapor image below.

You can see the dark air (high) to NE of Irma.

You can see the front moving down.

The short wave trough is hidden a bit ... 

Keep watching.

I'll update first thing in the morning.

Going to sleep.

I need sleep.

We all need sleep.

Again please read below.

There is valuable information for you.

If you have family in Florida.

Make sure they only stay in a house with shutters.

It's hard to even book a flight out currently.

Trust me.. I know.

Big decisions tomorrow on Irma.

When South Florida goes in the 3 Day cone...

And lastly pray for the islands tonight.

This is basically a Pacific Typhoon..

In the Atlantic..

@bobbistorm on Twitter

***

Cone:

The difference between KW and Havana is 90 Miles.

Again remember this regarding cone error:

"about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5"

There is so much traffic I couldn't get the NHC site to load.

I had to go to Mike's page to see the cone.

http://spaghettimodels.com/

Understand this cone may change in 6 hours.

It's a fluid cone updated.

It's not a cone set in stone.

Until you are in the 3rd day...

..hard to say what will be for sure.

We now have TD 13 and Jose.

I'll discuss them at the end of this blog.

You can see TD13 in the GOM.

Jose is behind Irma.

Irma is center stage.

Discussion:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/052052.shtml?

Main points I want you to remember are:

Doesn't get much stronger than this.

As for models they disagree.

What else is new.

Good graphics abound.

But they are all long range guesses.

Look at the GFS...

Nice image.

That would be the cone aka GFS.

All models show a hard right turn.

Many hurricanes do that...

...some refuse to make the turn.

Hurricane Donna 1960 turned late.

It's a good analog storm.

I wrote about Hurricane Donna few days ago.

Anthony is a good one to follow on Twitter.

Another good one is Dabuh who I show often.

I agree with him.

Beautiful, but you feel bad saying it.

But look at that image below.

That is about as perfect as it gets.

So let's get down to the busy tropics.

Below we see 3 systems with advisories.

Tropical Storm Jose.

Following along in Irma's wake.

The basics are below.

Not worth doing much with now..

...be aware it is there.

Tropical Depression 13.

It cut that way...sorry.

Not a comment.

I want to show the advisory.

Knowing details teaches you much.

 

So what you see from the models above is:

They are tightly clustered going into the Islands.

Most take it up and over the Islands.

Somehow Hispaniola has not one track over it now.

Odd... 

Cuba is hit by many models.

Then Irma starts to turn.

Somewhere.

The basics are seen on the loop below:

There is a front that is mercifully going to go through NC soon, supposedly, and then a high pressure ridge sets in that keeps IRMA from moving North however Irma does begin to move WNW soon if the forecast is correct. Then what is called a "short wave" comes down and begins to erode that ridge and Irma feels the pull of the poles and begins to pull more to the North and yet we aren't sure exactly where that will be. Why? Because the short wave is not yet on the scene and the front that will help support a ridge has still not moved through. When forecasting weather every factor relies on another factor and it's not easy. Especially in early September when even a "strong cold front" can disappoint and a minor change in the forecast can make a major difference in the actual track of the hurricane. 

Add into the mix a Category 5 hurricane carries it's own High Pressure system aloft, think of it as a portable generator it takes on the road. At some point that High can sometimes help make it's own steering currents. Models are good but have had little real experience with such strong Category 5 Hurricanes and so will they handle Irma properly. Is the GFS correct or the EURO? Does Irma go through the Keys and then make a turn or does it turn before the Florida coast or over the Florida Coast? How much of the Cuban landscape will see Irma or not at all? I wish I could tell you.

Let's look at 3 hurricanes that could teach us something about Irma and it shows you the problems the models are having agreeing on the 4th and 5th day as well as the long range period.

Hurricane Matthew...

Made a hard right turn...

Went N from the coast of South America.

Crossed Cuba...

..made landfall in Miami.

Traveled US 1 North.

Hurricane Georges refused to turn NW.

NHC forecast a turn over and over.

It just kept going WNW.

Hurricane Donna mentioned above.

Up over and Islands.

Through the Florida Keys.

A mess in Miami.

Turned in South of Tampa.

Crossed the State.

Made landfall again in Carolinas.

Up the coast flooding problems.

Review the blog I wrote days ago discussing long tracking hurricanes that dipped WSW that made landfall around Florida.  It has much good information and shows how sometimes a hurricane turns fast to the right and surprises everyone. Sometimes the NHC hits the nail on the forecast and it stays off shore by 50 miles. A real game of playing chicken with a hurricane. 

I want to bring up a variety of issues for you to think on when debating what to do regarding Irma if you live in Florida. And, again note what I said about many models clustered onto a track North towards Atlanta and South Carolina and the rest of Georgia. During Wilma and Katrina in Miami the whole electric grid went down and most of us had no electric from a week to two weeks. We are talking a relatively weak hurricane; the kind that in the past took out trees and did minor structural damage. Yet, for whatever reason, the electric grid went out and it took forever to fix it. The fact that many across a wide area in Miami Dade County were affected made it more difficult to repair. Many lineman from all over the country are helping out in Texas restore power. I'd say things are spread a little thin and it could slow down the repair in Florida. The strongest part of Irma may miss you and you will still lose power and it will be a while before it's repaired.

Sometimes when preparing it's the little things you don't think on. Since Hurricane Andrew I save small "to go" packages of mayo, ketchup, towel wipes, etc. When you shouldn't be opening up your fridge but keeping it shut tight using those small to go packages is great. Note if your power is out in Miami it will be in the High 80s.. near 90 degrees every day so you can't leave food out... but you can't keep opening the fridge. I've heard people talk on heating up cans of ravioli... It's nice but if you have a large family that's not going to work time wise. Think dry cereal, peanut butter and items that can be easily opened with a HAND HELD can opener.  Remember crayons? They still work to keep kids busy. You need to keep all your devices fully charged and plugged in. You never know when you will lose power and you can't have a long talk on the phone assuring your mother you are safe unless the phone is fully charged. At some point the cellphone towers may go down and you will lose your phone service. If you have power you can still take pictures... Not funny really. It was a mess in Miami after Wilma and that was a minor hurricane over Florida not a Major.

Let's say worse case scenario and Miami gets a Major Hurricane the whole normal of life goes woosh with the wind. Street signs are gone, light signals are gone and there is no cable. I never saw what happened after Andrew hit until a friend sent me video from TWC so I could see their coverage after landfall. It took us MONTHS to have cable again in my area that in theory only had Category 2 winds with strong gusts and some localized tornadoes. MONTHS... without cable.... you'll have to listen to a battery powered radio to find out if we are at war with Korea or some other natural disasters descends on America.

That brings us to the next point. Make sure you have a BATTERY OPERATED RADIO so you can listen to your local news, because you will not be able to watch the news and cable will be out and now we can't watch TV without cable anymore unless you ghetto rigged your old TV to avoid using cable. Oh... NETFLIX and HULU will be unavailable most likely. I hope you have books, magazines and you know how to play checkers and backgammon. My online friends called often after those back to back hurricanes in Miami that knocked out my power and cable for weeks. You start to appreciate the sky, the stars and how really fast it gets dark in the house when you don't have electricity. I used to make the kids sleep in their clothes with their shoes on or near by because by 4 PM the house got dark as we didn't have a lot of windows. Great for being in during a hurricane but no one could find anything by 5 PM and we didn't want to waste the flashlight we needed to make sure that wasn't a fruit rat that ran by inside the living room as we had no electric .... I am not kidding. Life AFTER the hurricane is not for the faint of heart, should you be lucky and survive the hurricane.

That brings us to windows. Do not rely on your 14 year old son to be telling the truth when he says he closed the window tight. Nope... they lie, kids lie. They want to look outside, they thought it was closed... they are lazy. Your home is only as strong as the weakest window that is locked tight. If the wind gets into your house it destroys. All windows for a Major Hurricane must be boarded up. Don't rely on the nice lady who used to live in your house that she went through hurricanes and never had a problem. Make sure they are locked tight. I have a son who lived for a while in a nice Condo on the Penthouse Floor in Golden Beach and the sliding glass door didn't lock. It had a great view, a wonderful balcony and they never had a serious hurricane. Really... in that scenario the wind would enter the apartment and look for a way out. Your apartment building is only as strong as the weakest condo someone never locked up before going on a long vacation last week.

I don't mean to scare you I am being honest from my vast knowledge and way too much experience. Learn from my mistakes and my friends mistakes.

If you are a single mother or father alone with small kids you may want to find another person to stay with you as it's always good to have more adults in a room filled with children. There is some measure of safety in numbers and you can help each other if things get sketchy or a child God Forbid gets hurt. I went to my mother's house that had mostly shutters for a minimal storm because my ex-husband had to go out of town as his mother was dying. She didn't want me alone with all the kids. So she opened up the sofa that had a bed inside and told the children to lie down. One of my little ones started jumping up and down at the excitement of sleeping at Grandma's house and cut himself and needed stitches so in the middle of the weak Hurricane Floyd in 1987 we had to drive to my friend's house on South Beach with light signals swaying in the wind to get him stitched up. Sometimes it's good to have other people there, my brother was with me we couldn't believe we were driving at the height of the storm with me putting pressure on his bleeding so he didn't lose too much blood. Memorable.

Another issue is evacuation. If you want to get out of Miami how are you going to do it? If you want to fly out... do it NOW. And, good luck at the airport cause it's gonna be nuts but if you feel the need do so but do it soon or you will lose your window. I had a long talk with a few of my kids today on this subject. If you want to drive out it's like this. So does almost everyone else. You will be stuck in traffic, low on gas with screaming kids in a car and as you drive North people from Port St Lucie add in and then people from Vero Beach decide to evacuate and it's not an easy choice to make. It may be the right one for you specifically but I can not promise you Miami, as one example, will get the hurricane dead on and not just mild impact. I can't promise you it will to to Miami or Tampa or through the Florida Keys moving WNW into the Gulf of Mexico. Once gone you will not be able to get back for a while so it's a big decision and one you need to make quickly. If you stay... stay somewhere that has a good roof, shutters and is not low lying or close to water than will flood the area. Know your evacuation zones, know your comfort zones and make a decision early. Also be aware in past evacuations of South Florida people were stuck on the highway and ran out of gas and could not get gas. I am not saying not to.. I'm saying if you are doing so do it as soon as possible.

I'll be back with more updates throughout the night. I'll add in thoughts and advice that hopefully is helpful to someone reading this...

http://weather.gc.ca/hurricane/track_e.html

Canadian Hurricane Tracking Map. It's not looking good for Key West, however I can pretty much promise you one thing. The cone will nudge East and West, North and South over the next few days. Miami was in the 5 Day cone for Hurricane Sandy and then we weren't.

Besos BobbiStorm
I'm on Twitter nonstop if you have any questions and I do faster updates there.

Think this out... do what you got to do ..as my Daddy used to say and protect you and your loved ones. If your office is closed down tomorrow ...take with you whatever is valuable it might not be there when you get back if you experience a Major Hurricane.

Keep your gas tanks filled as of NOW ..do not make necessary trips many places in Miami and South Florida are currently out of gas. Don't waste it.

Also MONEY... $$$ get it out of an ATM while they have money because when the storm hits you will not be able to use the ATM and just prior to landfall the machines run out of money. It sounds simplistic like needing a hand operated can opener but with all the stress of a hurricane... people forget the simply things.

Just trying to remind people of simple stuff.

AGAIN... it's just as logical that this monster hurricane stays off of the SE coast of Florida by fifty miles or so and moves up the coast towards a landfall further North. It's not an easy set up, rarely is it ever an easy set up or a slam dunk. The only hurricane I can remember that was a sure thing was Andrew... blocked by a ridge to the North it turned West and had no other track available. It was scary, usually there are options. Currently there are a few options.

Writing this before the 11 PM...it has begun to move WNW... or close to it. Does that mean it's going to make the turn to the right just before Florida? We can hope so but we won't be sure until it does.

So stay tuned.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

Besos BobbiStorm