Hurricane Harbor: UPDATED 11 PM WSW AGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE ---Irma ..Waiting on Recon. Cone Gets Closer to South Florida. Islands Main Concern & Then Bahamas... Landfall in US Cannot Be Ruled Out...

11 PM.

Cone

Experimental wind product.

For the arrival of winds vs "eye"

Watches and warnings.

Irma so far...

That's one huge dip.

A really deep dipper.

IN NC people are worried on Irma.

Yet Brad in Charlotte showed this tonight.

Even if there is a forecast turn...

It's too soon to rely on it.

So either way you have to prepare.

Oddly in NC Red Cross Officials are moving into place.

Yet when you watch the models....

... it's hard to understand how it misses Florida.

Time will tell.

Going to keep this short tonight. The new 11 PM didn't do much to allay the fears of people living in South Florida. Irma is currently a Major Hurricane AGAIN and AGAIN going WSW at 14 MPH. Compare and contrast with the 5 PM further below. It's often hard to understand how a storm going one way can make such a strong turn. The image below shows Matthew as a wave coming off the coast of Africa. He moved into the Eastern Caribbean and instead of dying thrived, exploded off the North coast of South America and ended up raining himself out over Eastern North Carolina. Storms do this and the stronger they get, the more intense the more they try to go North (if they can...) towards the poles.

Oh...there's other fish in the sea.

Ignoring them but candidates for Jose.

Going to sleep.

Going to try to go to sleep.

Enjoyed Mike's Facebook Live earlier.

Enjoyed Jim Williams program tonight.

Not enjoying Irma's incessant need to go WSW.

Again I wrote about storms that dip for a reason.

I'll update in the morning.

Much to say but gonna pray a bit.
I do that.

You might want to also.

Some models show this stronger than Wilma..

Very strong... huge.

Are the models right?

So many factors.

Up close......

Continue reading you have not so far today.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

* * *

Irma round in all directions.

Evacuating energy nicely.

Long, curved bands.

You may think looking at the image below "what's going on? Miami isn't in the cone?" and you would be correct. This is for arrival of winds out in advance of the eye of the storm. Shows Miami is currently forecast to get some weather (winds) from Irma. Remember the NHC only tracks the "center" of the hurricane. Hurricane Matthew touched the coast of Florida, the eye went over land, but because the "center" of the eye did not go over land it was not considered a "landfall" . . .

Hey it is what it is... so be alert, be aware and be prepared and pray Irma sails past Miami the way Matthew did and our luck holds out. Still a ways a way.

Cone.. moving closer every day.

Multiple views below:

Wind Probs go North to Cocoa Beach, FL.

They also show Tampa on the Fl W Coast.

Currently Irma is having some small problems with structure, the eye is tilted a bit as per recon information and it has been dealing with dry air most of the day. And yet it moves West like the Energizer Bunny steady as she goes. It is forecast to intensify in the very warm bathtub water of the Bahamas and be larger in size and stronger in strength. Note a forecast wind speed of 140 MPH. That could be conservative depending on a few things that may happen down the road.

Models from Spaghetti Models below.

Well Euro and GFS

A bit concerned on the image below.

It's an official gov product.

Shows Irma close to Florida.

But headed more towards Carolinas.

Maybe.

Look how beautiful Irma is from the perspective of classic, text book banding, intense compact area of hurricane force winds and tropical storm force winds far from her center.

Irma reminds me of a Hurricane named Bonnie.

1998. Looked like it was moving towards Miami.

Then it slowed down in the Bahamas.

Bombed out strength wise.

Sat, spun like a dancer.

Eventually took off for NC.

Rob from Crown Weather has much to say.

He gives great info, people pay...

..to read.

Just showing a drop of what he is thinking below:

Agreed models go from bad to worse.

Worth remembering EURO ignores Florida.

GFS likes Florida.

As always most people trust the Euro the most.

The NHC Bottom Line below:

As sunsets on Irma we pause and ponder.

Think and wonder.

Worry and debate what to do.

It's so far away.

Another storm last year was similar.

If you take it from where it will be soon.

Look at the cone for MATTHEW.

Note NOT Irma.

Putting it here to see much they are alike in 2 days.

Recon shows a powerful hurricane.

The data from recon will be in the 11 PM.

That advisory should help more than the last.

The 5 PM was an extrapolation of the previous one.

Recon will answer many questions about Irma.

This is a great site for watching the Island's weather.

http://weathercarib.com/

Earlier I typed up a long post and lost it somehow. Really that never happens much these days. Can we blame it on the Mercury Retrograde please? I want a new computer. My fault but I still want one.

Basically her concern is this..

When you live on a small island everything is different from living on the mainland. When the last boat comes in with supplies there are no more supplies until the hurricane is totally gone and the next boat can get in. Businesses and homes are often built on inclines meaning people have to put boards up over windows what are not on ground level sometimes 30 feet high. Water for washing comes from cisterns and when the pumps don't work because electricity is out; you have to carry the water up the old fashioned way. Everything is based on boats. There are no trucks bringing in supplies and there is no where to evacuate to often unless you fly out early before the planes leave your island for safety somewhere else. Islands often need an extra day to prepare for a hurricane; they can't wait to see if the storm is really coming the way many on land wait to do. It's a different world down there and 'WEATHER" aka "STRONG WEATHER" can arrive as well as swells way in advance of the actual landfall.

I have friends and family in Miami. Miami is mostly out of danger and yet everyone is scared. Scared people panic shop and obsess over every model that shows Miami getting creamed. Hey some exist... some even get into the GOM, but most do not.

MY thoughts would be everywhere from Charleston north to Norfolk need to pay close attention to Hurricane Irma. And, if things work out not right but the wrong way she may veer inland and keep going further than Matthew did when it hugged the coast. I would be a bit more worried from say WPB to the Cape as a secondary target if something drastically changes with Harvey and the steering currents. Main concern SC/NC... secondary FL and please remember the ISLANDS are in the path and it may take a strong swipe at the Virgin Islands.

She seems to have made the turn and is no longer going WSW but moving West as I type this and parts of South Florida are in the NRL grid. I would guess when you wake up in the morning South Florida may be touching the cone. The infamous cone, that changes often just a bit in the 4 and 5 day.

Putting this image up here to remind you where the real hurricane winds are with Irma. She looks so huge at times and yet the cloud cover doesn't all have the real hurricane force winds.