Hurricane Harbor: 5 PM Update. Winter Storm Warnings. Blizzard Conditions Could Happen on the Coast for OBX. TS Force Winds, Gusts Flirt With Hurricane Force. Beach Erosion. Snow Covers Carolina. Virginia. Georgia. Savannah, Charleston, Myrtle Beach All In it. Parts of Alabama and TN Still Recovering From an Ice Storm. Up I-95 Nearby Beach Erosion. Hunker Down Stay Safe in Frigid Single Digit Temps and Wicked Winchill!!

WRAL is very good during storms.
All the news you need often live.
Watch them more now than before...
Good team.

Again Spectrum Weather here is awesome!

Updated info from Allan Huffman.
He is on X and he has a Patreon account.
Only person I follow there that should say much.
He is good with snow and hurricanes.
https://www.patreon.com/c/raleighwx/posts

Down the road in Fay'ville

Love Chick... he's awesome.

And current radar shows snow nearby

But other than early stray flurries...

...supposed to start late tonight*

On Earthnull you can see the storm forming.

The Coastal Low.

The pieces of the puzzle coming together.

How and where and when they interact...

... is what makes this forecast difficult.

Last frame of a loop....

...the Coastal Low shows up.

Forming....

..coming together.

*Bottom line here is we really do not know what will be until we see what will be and once all is said and done and it's deep into Sunday afternoon and the sun tries to show it's face again. We like to think we are getting perfect with forecasting, but y'all know that ain't so. There's literally a model somewhere that will show you what you want to see. That's why the snow totals are so wide and again in one area you the snow can be stolen by a "snow hole" and in another area you feel as if you had a historic storm.

Stay safe. Hunker down. Don't assume you aren't getting snow because some snow hole is temporarily over you and you decide you need to get out for some reason and then the snow hole closes and your area ends up with 7 inches of snow or more and you may have been stuck on a highway where crashes happened because that happens in NC way too often. Enjoy the beauty of a storm, time to do all those things you have been meaning to do around the house and hope and pray you don't lose electric!

Keep reading as the blog is still current and explains the many problems of forecasting this storm.

Mitch did a LIVE broadcast this afternoon answering so many questions. First time he has done one, it was awesome. Your city most likely is mentioned as everyone asked on their city. Again, no forecast is exact it's just an estimate.

Thank you for reading and following along:

Noon on Friday...

An updated map with info for Raleigh area.

Storm doesn't show up yet here...

..can see where it's about to show up.

Visible shows the elements.

The Southern part.

The Northern part.

Once they connect!

Game on!

Maybe will update images around 4 PM

See what we will see.

You can see the cold air pressing down.

The moisture flow that will feed...

...the coastal low that hasn't formed yet.

1st part of the blog is Carolinas, VA, GA

Further down are other areas that'll be impacted.

"Raleigh is in the Risky Zone.

"will depend on the Interaction

between the upper level low

and developing coastal low

5 - 10 inches"

The above is in quotes as that is what Allan Huffman says and I lean heavy on what he says as I live in Raleigh and have gotten to see first hand how incredibly accurate his maps are and well I take him seriously. Not sure if he will update later today or leave it as it is and either way we are getting closer to game on time. Sure he can be off a bit, but it's usually in shades of gray in that there's always a few details with a Carolina Snow Storm that can't be nailed down until the storm shows it's face.

Note he has parts of Virginia and Georgia in this map and that's because we really are one region broken up into separate states, but we are under the same blanket of snow falling to the ground. How strong and how steady and how much falls will tell the actual story. Will this be "wow what a real snow storm for Raleigh" or "historic" or will that tag go to places further East such as New Bern that's closer to the coast.

See this storm has many moving parts. There's a coastal low that is developing in real time and an upper level low inland. As readers of this blog know, I do so low tracking upper level lows as they can be real game changers. In this case you have two parts of a storm that will have dance moves similar to a Fujiwhara effect yet not really. And somewhere the forecast will be busted and someone may get near blizzard like conditions and someone else ends up in the dreaded dry spot deprived of the heavier snow totals the forecast showed on the colorful maps on Wednesday. It happens. It's hard enough to predict a snow storm in detail with one low, let alone two lows swirling around the same dance floor.

Yes, I did say "blizzard" conditions as the possibility is there that in some places a Blizzard Warning could be put out and again I said could as it all depends on what plays out in real time. The NWS has already mentioned blizzard conditions being possible. You don't hear that often around these parts.

Going beyond the Carolinas...

This is such a sad hit for Tennessee that is trying to recover from last week's Ice Storm and now will have areas hit by snow on top of what is dangling from the ice.

This is a screenshot from my friend Mitch...

Honestly did not listen to it all.

I don't like my mind to be muddied...

...hearing others speak too much.

So that what I put out is my own.

But I wanted the map...

..knew he'd have it.

I live in the Carolinas. This is my blog, my personal weather diary and if you read it a long time then you know sometimes I would rant or be silly or annoyed and vent in my weather diary. These days I try and stay on weather and in the off season I talk more on what I want to vs when a Cat 3 Hurricane is about to do Rapid Intensification and go Cat 5 just before before landfall. Yes this is the off season for me, a time when I lose myself in the beauty of winter, praying for winter storms and following them online. So, excuse me, if I talk too long on the Carolinas currently in my off season. Well, we do get hurricanes too in the Carolinas. Another reason I love living in NC is that we have seasons of all kinds. Miami has football season, mango season, tourist season and Hurricane Season. And, yes I do go down to Miami often to see family and friends and Biscayne Bay but the Carolinas have finally come to feel like home after 16 years here!

Back to our snow storm. Tennessee is still without power in many places. The whole infrastructure was torn apart by the last storm that was more ice than snow. Now some places will have snow as well. A very hard hit in the realm of misery loves company.

Above this general region will have impacts.

Even more so there's a coastal component.

Below the attention is on the coast.

This part of the storm is big.

This area is under the gun.

I use that phrase rarely.

Snow totals can be high.

Beach impacts will be high.

Ice hopefully not.

Maybe a drop of sleet.

Wind so strong it'll feel like...

..a Blizzard.

This storm is bigger than the Carolinas.

Bigger than Virginia.

Bigger than Georgia.

Florida has it's own impacts.

Sliver of a chance for Gulf Snow...

And our mountains get snow...

...ya know how that goes.

Elevation always matters.

Freezing cold temps in other places.

In the Super Storm of 1993...

FL was lashed with wicked, gale force winds.

Wild surf, beach erosion.

Yes Baltimore was buried in snow...

...but dangerous weather is dangerous.

With or without snow

Watching the beaches here for blizzard conditions.

NWS INFO for OBX

Yes out on the Outer Banks...

..they will have Tropical Storm winds Saturday.

Gusts near hurricane force.

Moving on down I-95 South..

Savannah could get snow.

That's really rare.

Almost moved there a while back...

...didn't work out but lack of snow ate at me.

But I do love that city.

My family has a very old history there ....

I worry on the hanging moss freezing...

...falling down again.

I love hanging moss........

As for "Up North"

Well it does snow in NY

It snows up the way.

But this is a coastal low...

...so beaches especially in it.

Lakewood NJ below

Not what we think of as beach wxr!

Stay informed.

Stay aware.

Stay prepared.

That really is all I can say now.

The time for debating a forecast is done.

Winter Storm Warnings in place!

Lastly, many had problems finding winter storm supplies for this storm as all the supplies were bought out for the Ice Storm scenario last week and even their suppliers do not have the supplies. The huge geographic area impacted means that the local hardware stores can't get "Ice Melt" because their own suppliers are out as this is the second storm in the pattern. DaBuh always says the second storm in a set is the worst one, let's see if he's right when it comes to winter weather not just surf and hurricane weather.

As for me I'm nibbling on one of the last cookies we bought at Trader Joes for last week's storm and we bought new stuff last night for this weekend's storm. Eggs were gone, I could not find any though I have left from last week. Bread was mostly out. You know how the story goes .

Winter finally showed up in the Carolinas this year and I am not complaining. Well not yet. Let's see what we get on Saturday and hopefully the electric is on and we have way deep powdery snow. The reason I mention power problems is there are a lot of trees that had a light coating up to .33 inches of ice that did not fall down, but they have damaged limbs and are in a weakened state. The back yard still has some frozen sleet in icy patchwork patterns like a quilt and it's decorated with some young, healthy green pine "candles" lying on the ground as they snapped in the ice storm that did not take the tree but did bring down healthy but young, green needles.

Stay safe. Stay inside.

Wind Chills of Zero are nothing to laugh about.

With prayers for everyone to stay safe. And for those who love snow I really hope you get so much snow. For those who hate snow... well sorry....you're reading the wrong blog.

Besos BobbiStorm

Enjoy the songs. I put in an old school and newer song. Can't find the song I wanted to put in here so will add it in later.... Lyrics were "two part harmony" and that reminded me of this two part winter storm. Some people do so love piano so going with this song that's good for our upcoming Valentines Day (will there be a Valentine's Day Blizzard this year I wonder???) but I did enjoy the second one as well...