Hurricane Harbor: Winter Storm May Cripple Parts of the Country Not Just the South. Travel Will be Impacted. Planes, Trains and Highway Travel. Ice or Snow or Both? Follow Your Local NWS Often .. Winter Weather Watch Up in Raleigh.

Remember Pink is not your friend.
Blue is nice snow...
Pink is Ice. Freezing Rain.
Purple Pink is a warning...

Again if your town is not covered in Snow.

Travel will be a problem.

Connecting flights from cities ....

This is a huge storm.

Not just about Texas

Not just about Missouri

Not just about Georgia

Nor the Carolinas

Or the East Coast...

I like Gary, he's very good.
One of my go to local meteorologists.

I keep Spectrum News for the Weather.

They go live when needed and are very good!

Look at the list of cities to be impacted.

This model as of today.

Yes air travel will be impacted...

...across the country.

Travel will be impacted.

I wanted to know but "OH WOW!"

Always heard about the 2002 Ice Storm.

Before my time here....

similar but 2026 will have it's own drama.

But analogs are good.

And I listen to Allan Huffman always!

Some similarities to the 2002 Ice Storm

Also note models are trending North

Meaning Raleigh getting into Ice concerns

Again this is not just about the Carolinas

Or Texas.......

This post shows the size of the storm...

...not just about The South.

I wrote a whole long blog late yesterday on models as I said I would and then I deleted the whole thing as it really seemed an exercise in futility and might spread too much misinformation. There are a lot of models and they all were changing in small, subtle ways that make big differences down the line should they verify vs being thrown in the garbage on the next model run.

Winter Storms such as this one that will impact at least a quarter of the USA if not a third when all is said and done. Everyone looks at their area as if the storm has not traveled far to get to them and is moving on to dump wintry weather on someone else further up the road. Remember a large area shut down by a crippling Winter event with ICE and SNOW means deliveries will be slowed from Amazon to Gas Trucks that need to refill your local gas station as well as food to refill the empty shelves at your local grocery.

I talk on Oklahoma/Texas to Tennessee to Raleigh as this sort of storm does seem to travel in that path vs storms that form over Georgia and South Carolina and move up from Atlanta towards Raleigh. It's also impacting Kentucky, Virginia, West Virginia and on up the Eastern Seaboard; oops forgot Arkansas and Missouri and a few other states you may have learned from a puzzle Aunt Martha bought you when you were little for your birthday.

So many questions.

What I love is when a well respected, much loved meteorologist takes the time to answer questions online as Jim Cantore did earlier and I'll add with honest, easy to understand answers. Phil Ferro in Miami does this calmly, cautiously and politely when Miami looks to be seriously in the path of a Hurricane. So posting some of what Jim said here below as it shows the scope of this storm on a geographic level. Some people want the storm, some are wishing it goes away. Everyone wants answers yet it's still too soon to tell for sure who gets what and how much of it over the weekend.

Why? Unlike a Tropical Wave that comes rolling off of Africa looking kickass and determined to get a name .... Winter Storms form in real time and the various aspects and how they align in real time really tell the ending to this story being written as I type. The tropical wave looks great, kind of fizzles, hangs in there and we watch it and study it for days, a week until it pulls together closer in the way Hurricane Melissa did as it got into the Caribbean. Just getting into the Caribbean was a big deal as no other wave developed into a named storm there and there was a sense this long tracked wave that became an Invest would become a hurricane to remember. We also saw which models handled the storm well and which did not. We saw which models were handling track better and which models handled intensity better and we were able to make a better forecast with that knowledge.

There's the Pacific part of it.

The flow from the Gulf.

In motion you can see the parts.

Note this loop shows the Northern part.

It's warming up to the 50s in Raleigh today.

Tomorrow a promise of 60 degrees.

You can't see the Polar Vortex part on this loop yet.

I can show you the wet, moist flow from the South.

When this mixes on the dance floor....

...with the other dancers from the Pacific.

And with the dancer from the North..

Diving down, dipping into the South..

....it pumps up the amount of snow..

or Ice

or Freezing Rain

we will all get.

Don't ya hate hearing:

"too soon to tell"

Sorry but true.

So here are some maps I think are good.

But first more Jimbo

My post before going to sleep last night!

I did this without checking the NWS

or any local meteorologist.

I woke up to this...this morning on X.

Remember the NWS plays it safe.

Cautious and steady.

Making changes carefully.

Will be interesting to see later today...

...how much they change this.

How they change it.

Do they up the ICE?

...probably, will see in real time.

Looks a lot like my post last night.

A little bit of this and that.

In Raleigh we call this a Lasagna Storm.

Layers of Wintry Precipitation.

When it freezes overnight...

..it's layers of crunchy sounds when..

Your foot drops a bit to the next layer.

This is not to say we could not have a historic Ice Storm.

This is not to say we could not have a historic Snow Storm.

This is not to say we could end up with very little winter weather.......

But even if we got freezing rain or just tons of rain it'll all freeze over for days.

Not just Black Ice at night. Temps stay low, in the teens and maybe single digits even.

Some meteorologists insist we go down into single digits AFTER the storm and we may be without power. If you don't believe that can happen... ask @NewThor on X as he will wax long on what happened in Texas when many, many people died from crippling cold and went way too long without power for heat! No not everyone has a fireplace nor a generator.

Again this part of the South is not used to it. All the old timers tell stories of the "big one" but we have a whole lot of newbies who have moved here from Up North and from Florida to the South. They have been lulled into a state of security. My first full Winter here about 16 years ago we had a cold winter and the next was cold and we had deep snow with a crunch on top from sleet that fell on top of the snow so I'm a believer. Many do not believe. Many are clueless. Get a clue and prepare now.

Prepare as if it's a hurricane.

Except you need a shovel and salt to melt snow on your walkways, etc....

Food and Water and whatever else you want to drink for a week or so.

Even if we don't get the worst of the storm the stores will have to restock.

If you know you know and if not trust me it''ll take a while.

Beer and Ice Cream go first then milk and bread. Why Ice Cream and milk you may ask? It'll stay cold in the snow or on your deck especially if the low is 9 degrees or 19 degrees and the high is 29 degrees. Think about it. Can't do that in a hurricane can you ;) so yes we can here! Of course gotta be careful with liquids as they can freeze out there and break if it's in glass. One of my first Winter Storms here in February I left some of the roses in a vase outside on the table on the deck and loved the way they looked with snow flakes on the roses so romantic. It was really pretty. I fell asleep at some point. Woke up to much deeper snow on the table and well the water in the vase froze and the vase broke so lesson learned for the Florida Hurricane Cane girl living in the Carolinas.

Basic thoughts here......

Medication filled.

Gas in your car, fill it up if you can. Gas runs out fast here before a winter storm, seen it happen.

Bread, canned foods, peanut butter and things you can eat without heating. Hand operated can opener!

Gas for your grill if you got one on your deck on in your yard or wherever.

Early on charge any and all battery pack chargers for your phone in case your power goes out.

Gather supplies such as flashlights, candles, matches, lighters and such in one spot.

Next to that spot put any First Aid supplies you will need as well as your medication.

Always best to have things in a spot you can find IF the power goes off.

Been there in hurricanes and lesson learned.

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

Ask an old timer if you are new to your area within this massive Winter Storm... listen to them.

I'll update later today.

Know that Hurricane Hunters have been out flying around trying to get better data for better models. That should tell you something about the historic nature of this Winter Storm. And, oh there's another storm behind it that's consistently showed up on long range models for a while so remember if you tree survived the first bout of Ice and Snow and then the WIND it's weak and may go down in the next storm. Yes, there is a storm after this one if the models verify.

Ethan Clark is one of those people ...

...to listen to and follow.

He knows NC.

If you live in OK or TN or VA...

...find someone who knows your area.

Follow them, trust them.