Raining. Winter Storm Advisory in Carolinas. Rain to Snow to Maybe Freezing Rain. Whoah That's a Carolina Winter Sub.... Lots of Layers. Light Impacts Expected..............

 

oh look snow flakes in the morning.......

........then sunny!

Writing this blog this afternoon as I feel the current Winter System (Storm) moving through should be taken seriously. Obviously, without the panic drama of the storm that models showed would drop huge amounts of snow on Raleigh and it under performed due to a dry slot and left many bewildered on the inconsistencies of forecasting a winter storm in this region. As far as I could see when I was out this afternoon,  they did not brine the roads; they aren't expecting more than a light or strong dusting and to be fair it's raining before the turnover to snow. 

Allan Huffman Map from earlier today on X

Where I live I am in the top part of B.

Dusting to 1 inch. Freezing rain possible.

I'm close enough to the A area to pay attention to it.

These systems can be tricky...

rain moves in from the South

Cold air moving down.

Snow up to the North

Where they meet and when tells the story.

Most sources insisted it would begin raining around 6 or 7 PM. The rain moved in early around 4 PM. The cold weather also moved in early, temperatures dropped fast from a Spring like 45 degrees and I didn't even put the hoodie around me as I walked over to Barnes and Noble, leaving it around my waist because I'm lazy and I was pretending it felt like Spring. It no longer feels like Spring, it's really cold outside. That bone chilling, nasty cold is settling back into my bones. I shut the windows that I had open a bit and the heat is back on. 

It's hard to pin down the specifics of a winter storm in the Carolinas. You don't know what you don't know until you know. That's not a cop out but an explanation from living here over 16 years. That's why we had a dry spot that denied us of 8 or 10 inches, leaving us with 1-3 inches in the Raleigh area. 

Many times a storm that was supposed to deliver a light dusting over produced, especially when the cold air was in place, the ground is still covered in areas by piles of snow and it's followed several other winter storms ........many times one of those storms with light impacts can impact an area more than everyone expected.

I'm not saying I expect this system to overproduce various types of P-types but I am saying it could in some area and people should pay close attention to their weather sources in the morning. Currently schools are on a delayed start as it is in the forecast for Ice to be a problem on the roads from the rain, then wintry mix and then freezing rain providing a "light glaze" but I would not be surprised in some areas if that is changed to not melting by 9 AM. I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't get to above freezing until closer to Noon. Long run on sentence much like this winter here......

So I'd pencil in your commitments tomorrow and wait and see what actually happens. You know when we had a pencil and erased something we wanted to change. Something just is bugging me that it's wishcasting to think there will be no problems from this system considering how cold the ground is and how it's expected to snow into the morning (daytime) and we could have freezing rain. I've never seen a neck of the woods that used the word "could" so much as is used in Raleigh. But then again the phrase "might could" is an old saying here. So let me say, this system might could surprise some with more than they expected so don't assume there won't be changes made to the forecast. And, if not and it's just bone chilling damp and cold, be happy this was not a Carolina Snow Storm that did not deliver more than expected. I had a best friend when young who would not use pens, she was a writer and loved pencils. Sometimes I take out a pencil, smell it ...smile and use it for about 30 seconds. Conceptually there's something good about the concept, while it did erase you can always see a bit of what was there and the reminder that you changed your mind. Mother Nature changes her mind often this year.

That's my thinking on this storm. Then again I'm leaving the emergency supplies in the same spot in case we lose power (God Forbid) until probably March 1st. 

Winter 2026 is not done with North Carolina yet. 

Stay aware, stay prepared.

Stay happy and smile.

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather..........