Cindy's Aftermath.Flooding, Tornadoes. Moving E and NE. EPAC Busier, Atlantic Takes a Short Break For You to Prepare for Hurricane Season. Hurricane History Miami, Tampa Due for a Real Direct Hit. Forecasting in 2017 vs 1917. Who Am I?

A look at Cindy's remnants in motion.

The exact location of Cindy's "center" above.

New Madrid area actually...

...sorry how my mind works.

As usual forecasting the worst weather in the weather mass formerly known as "messy Cindy" has not been easy for the NWS. They have erred on the side of caution with flood watches and warnings with some mention here and there for possible tornadoes and severe weather. Yesterday, out of nowhere and far from the "center" of Ex Cindy a tornado danced over Metro Atlanta. Not far away in Northern Alabama a tornado decided to visit a liquor store. Apparently it was picky as only some aisles saw debris while other aisles still had the bottles stacked as if nothing had happened.

This really does happen.
No walls left standing.

But some of the bottles upright as if a Twister wasn't just there....

Fairfield Alabama now on the map thanks to Cindy.

Pointing out two things here.

Above note the interior room structure remains..

Note the Mtns or high hills off in the distance.

There has been much discussion here as well as elsewhere as to the effect of topography and how it makes a bad situation worse if it's in the path of the remnants of a tropical cyclone in search of a frontal boundary. The issue of elevation intensifies the weather leading to possible flooding problems if rainfall is high or small random twisters starts to spin. And, the reason they tell you to go to an interior room in a tornado is you have a better chance of surviving.

After Hurricane Andrew people noticed similar patterns of wind flow that left some houses on a block barely touched while homes on the corners often were torn apart. A friend in Kendall had just bought a new bedroom set for her baby daughter. The wind entered the room and tore at things a bit, but nothing was broken. However the new furniture was scratched up by things unseen hitting it at high velocities. It then whooshed through the hallway into the next bedroom tossing everything about. The photos on the wall in the hallway were not even at an angle, as if nothing had happened. She and the baby spent the night of Andrew in a bedroom closet praying they would all survive. Her husband stayed outside with his back to the closet door hoping it would hold tight. The family photos just hung perfectly all through the hall where wind raced on it's way to destroying the back bedroom. Happens.

So Cindy is inland and her weather mass is moving North and East bringing potential problems with it and the NWS is doing a great job of warning everyone in it's path. Those watches and warnings along the Ohio Valley and the SE will move East over time so check in often with your best local source for weather news. nws.noaa.gov is the link for the NWS. Just enter your zipcode and I'm sure you know your zipcode so just do it if you live East of those warnings above as this whole mess moves East and North. Weather in Kentucky may get dicey later today! This is not just your every day cold front or summer weather moving through. And please make it move through faster as it's way too hot and humid in Raleigh today.

As for the rest of the tropics.

The Epac has an Invest.

As usual the Epac screams "my turn, my turn!!" 

... after an Atlantic storm dies out in June.

They seem to take turns sometimes.

There's a real scientific reason for it but ...

...let's just say energy moves about.

In the Atlantic you can see the curvature of a tropical wave.

Waves will be departing Africa that are more viable in a week or so.

Nothing is currently being shown by the models.

But models update often and so should you.

Always stay on top of the weather.

The tornado that formed over Atlanta...

..had no Tornado Watch.

See the map from yesterday below.

When the tornado was spotted...

..NWS put a Tornado Warning up immediately. 

Weather can happen like that...

Climate is always.

Weather can be like a one night stand...

As a writer I try to stay light here and explain the dynamics of tropical weather in a way that is easy for the lay person to understand. I don't tout my meteorological knowledge or education but let me say that it's extensive. From studying meteorology and geography in college to a point that it was obsessive to learning from people I have.. collaborated with online and in person while doing research at the NHC Library. And reading my whole life books on hurricane history that were then out of print and that are almost impossible to find today. I've been through numerous hurricanes, done storm chasing and been chased by a few too many hurricanes. Trust me it's way better to chase a hurricane than to be chased by one. Chasers move about with knowledge of both roads, weather conditions and other chasers. You cannot pick up a two story, 13 room home built four blocks from the Atlantic Ocean. You can do your best to protect it and you and pray the storm hooks to the right or left and leaves it in better shape than that ABC Liquor Store in Alabama. My house on Miami Beach in Hurricane Andrew was high and dry and in good shape. A block away a ladies roof took off and set sail in the wind landing in her neighbors back yard pool and the yard and partially on her house. 

As a writer I try to put this into a frame work you can understand rather than talking in academic language that if you understood you probably wouldn't be reading this blog. Or maybe you would as I have some friends in the world of academia who seem to enjoy reading my thoughts.

Bottom Line:

Weather can spin up fast and the NWS moves fast to stay on top of changes in real time to a forecast. Forecasters dealing with multiple models giving totally different solutions did the best they could and they did a very good job at the NHC with Tropical Storm Cindy. Kudos to the rule changes that allow for faster dissemination of information by way of watches and warnings before an actual center has shown itself. We can do that based on trust and reliance that we have now days in model forecasts for tropical development. We are lucky these days, in the old days people were not lucky they were caught without warnings often by Killer Hurricanes that suddenly swerved or made a turn where no ship could relay that information. 

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/sfl-1919-hurricane-story.html

We have been extremely lucky the last few decades as some areas were hit over and over by dangerous hurricanes in the past that have not been hit in recent times. Key West has been lucky that the worse they have seen was Wilma or Georges as the 1919 Hurricane was a big blow and then it went on to slam into Texas as well a a very bad hurricanes in 1910. Read the text above a few times and try to picture it in your mind. And understand the weather service back then did the best it could to protect the people in the path of storms, but there wasn't much lead time when they were wrong. Now we can warn people with a Tropical Storm Warning before the tropical storm is done forming.

Tampa is so overdue for a Major Hurricane pushing up into Tampa Bay that it makes some wonder if they paid off the devil. 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1921_Tampa_Bay_hurricane#tampa

Lastly no matter how many times we say September Remember it's been a long time since downtown Miami and the beautiful adjacent city of Miami Beach was hit by a Category 4 Hurricane. The last record we have of wind speed was before the anemometer was blown off the a rooftop of a hotel on Miami Beach. We have been very lucky and at some point our luck may run out. Trust me I hope not but I'm realistic and so should you be. Andrew hit Homestead directly Miami only felt it's destructive energy.

https://www.weather.gov/mfl/miami_hurricane

Read it and look through the pictures.

Be #Hurricanestrong go on...

We used to forecast by the barometer.

There are a lot more buildings there now...

...for ships at sea to be tossed into!

Trust me on this there is so much information online. At www.hurricanecity.com Jim Williams has a list of cities and he shows the history for most cities in Hurricane country. Miami is shown below. You learn from history so you can prepared for the tomorrow when a hurricane is coming straight at your town. Trust me. I said Cindy would hit the Sabine River area between Texas and Louisiana when asked by friends on Twitter over and over days before it made landfall there. I made it clear Cindy might move a bit more to the west or east but in that general region. And, I said that when other meteorologists insisted it would hook left into Mexico or aim at the coast of NW Florida. I know hurricanes and I know weather and on any given day weather can change fast and the NWS does their best to change the forecast. You have the final responsibility to stay on top of the weather.

http://www.hurricanecity.com/city/miami.htm

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter.
Follow me on Twitter for faster news and updates!

NHC & CINDY Divorce Final .. Inland & Passing Cindy Off to the NWS. EX Bret & Wave in Atlantic. Post Game Discussion on Models GFS Victory over EURO (kind of) Cantore Covers Flooding IN Lake Charles Area

A bit of a post game analysis on Tropical Storm Cindy this morning and then I'll talk on a few things to think about down the road. The models overall did an excellent job of sniffing out development where Cindy was concerned despite massive differences. In truth both of the hot shot models were right. The GFS kept smelling huge amounts of rain and low pressure along the NE Gulf of Mexico coast, however it was wrong with it's intensity forecast. The Euro that stubbornly insisted a small tropical cyclone would form and hook left towards Texas was wrong on the extreme left hook to Mexico. And over time the Euro inched itself northeastward towards Mexico and came more in line with the GFS that moved it's landfall from the NW coast of Florida a bit further West. Sometimes the models look as if they are trying to stay out of court and in mediation. Much like a real estate deal where a seller wants an unrealistic price and a buyer wants to get it as cheap as possible it's the realtor's job to convince them both to agree on middle ground.

Back on June 15th the top two models showed the solutions above. That was long range modeling for a system that never really formed a closed center until just before landfall. And, even then it had multiple centers rotating around one oblong, closed center. Now in reality the EURO was WAY off, however in any other year it most likely would have been on the money. The GFS showed an immensely large closed Low moving up in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico moving towards landfall near Mobile or Pensacola Bay. This year in particular the desert SW had some extreme heat planes were forbidden to land in Phoenix and many airlines had to cancel flights. That huge High took over the SW and the SW bleeds into Texas from a meteorological point of view and it made the usual friendly realm of the BOC in June be downright inhospitable. Despite my respect for the EURO I didn't find it's solution to be correct. As for the GFS I didn't think the low would wrap that much nor be so strong and with no strong cold fronts and lack of steering currents it would be hard for a weak kneed large low pressure Gyre to make a run for the gold in Apalachicola. It's akin to turning a big rig on a small country road that has a sharp bend with water on either side; not happening. You need a stronger system and a stronger front to grab a cyclone in the GOM in June and hook it right hard.

Where did that leave the messy, large potential tropical cyclone 3? It avoided the west side of the GOM and found the slight weakness between the high to the right and the high to the left and stayed in the middle drifting slowly North carrying heavy tropical moisture along with it until finally after flirting with an ULL in the NW GOM it tried as hard as it could to inch it's way more to the West and make landfall around the Sabine River between Louisiana and Texas and moved on up to Lake Charles area while it's real weather slammed into the area along Mississippi, Alabama and the Panhandle of Florida. Basically the GFS nailed the precipitation and murky weather while the Euro moved closer to where the weakly developed center of low pressure coughed itself up onto the beaches along the Sabine River with just a part of her moisture officially hitting Texas. Discussion from NHC is below with current location of Cindy.

"Radar imagery from Slidell and Lake Charles, Louisiana along with
surface synoptic data, particularly those from Calcasieu Pass
Louisiana, indicate that the center of Cindy crossed the coast
between Cameron Louisiana and Port Arthur Texas an hour or two ago.
The observations from Calcasieu indicate that the intensity is now
around 35 kt.  Now that the center is inland, steady weakening will
occur and the system should become a depression later today, and be
reduced to a post-tropical remnant low tonight.  In 2-3 days, or
sooner, the remnant low of Cindy should become absorbed into a
frontal zone over the eastern United States."

Now what? It tangles with the new frontal boundary after merging with the old dead frontal boundary and a lot of this will be played out in real time depending on how much gas the new front has in it's tanks and how far it can go. I've outlined the possible flooding conditions that occur when a tropical system merges with a front and elevation of land can lead to huge localized flooding.  Showing Mike's post on Facebook below as it tells the tale again that I have been saying for days. Inland flooding over the next few days is possible across a huge expanse of the SE and then the Mid Atlantic while tropical moisture continues to train in along the beaches of GOM

Mike explains the problem with Cindy well.

I've talked incessantly on the flooding dangers.

So let's move on.

I'm watching what was Bret for two reasons.

Shouldn't have been anything left of it..

...but there is so keep watching.

It also enhances moisture in the long tail of Cindy.

And, I'm watching the wave in the Atlantic.

It does have a purple splotch shown below..

..however models are not in love with it.

Again for a wave to leave Africa in JUNE..

..and be this recognizable as it nears the islands is HUGE.

So that's the state of the tropics today.

The big story may become the flooding from Ex-Cindy.

The plug has been pulled. Last advisory written.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/221434.shtml

Follow Cindy at the NWS

http://www.weather.gov/

Tropics may be quiet for a few days.

But never say never so keep watching.

I'm taking a break myself a bit today and enjoying life. Celebrating my son's sale of a beautiful, luxury lot (vacant land) on Miami Beach about a mile and a half north of where he was raised. Levi Meyer of Compass Realty fame knows Miami Beach and knows how to convince two sides to come together unlike others who held the listing but could not! My son is on the right ;) If you know someone who wants to sell or buy land in the tropical paradise.. Levi Meyer knows Real Estate in Miami like Jim Cantore knows Hurricanes and Thundersnow!!

http://www.absolutemiami.com/mexican-developer-sells-waterfront-pine-tree-drive-lot-for-6-75m/#

Besos BobbiStorm

Follow me on Twitter @bobbistorm 

I tweet faster than I blog.

Ps. GFS may have gotten better.

Euro may just have lost this one.

Time will tell.

UPDATED 8 PM - Problem With Cindy - Now Deadly Tropical Storm as Child Dies in Alabama. Dangers For More Death, Destruction & Injuries Up the Road

Center is still offshore remember that.

Wicked, deadly weather to the East in her bands.

Notice the spirals in her circulation below

In motion:

(remnants of Bret flaring up)

(new wave in Atlantic flaring up)

(ignore things in parenthesis) 

(shhh)

Global view below.

http://wkrg.com/2017/06/21/breaking-crews-responding-to-possible-drowning-of-child-at-fort-morgan/ 

Link to the details in the sad story and some pictures from the scene. It's enough to say wind whip up surf and things happen that wouldn't normally happen. A large, heavy log tossed by the surf seems to have struck the young boy and he died. His family was nearby and he was very close the rental property they were staying in. That's the gist of the story, enough to know he died and others might as trouble happens when a system covers such a huge, immense area of land. The larger the area the higher the risk is for injuries and death. Not because of the strength of Cindy, but due to her size covering so many states.

Again a small compact, fast moving Cat 1 would have been easier.

The issue here with Cindy is her huge tail, massive rain shield and it's movement towards merging with an old dying frontal boundary giving it problems few storms possess. A look back at 1972 when Hurricane Agnes made landfall and then went on to deliver massive flooding rains from the GOM up to through the NE. Weather historians remember storms like Agnes when we see the potential for huge flooding way upstream from landfall from a huge, wet hurricane with a tail down into the Caribbean merging with an old frontal boundary in June.

Compare similarities to the set up.

Hurricane Agnes above.

TS Cindy below.

Not as bad as Agnes... 

...hopefully no where near as bad.

But the potential for similar flooding is there.

Huge rain shield.

Dying front, merged with tropical cyclone.

HUGE tail down into the Caribbean.

Traveling across hilly and mountainous areas down the road.

http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/allfcsts_loop_ndfd.gif

Why I say the cone is less important with Cindy.

The forecast rainfall is the bigger concern.

Watch the loop and watch the tail.

Oh look bottom right...

...what's that?

Hmnnn

There's your cone!

What you need to know is..

There are hills, streams and mountains in it's cone.

Cindy + Dying Front + orographic effect = flooding

Landfall will be messy.

The bigger story may come in a few days.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Follow me on Twitter for faster updates.

***

http://www.al.com/news/mobile/index.ssf/2017/06/tropical_storm_cindy_2017_powe.html

The problem with Tropical Storm Cindy is that it has now claimed the life of a 10 year old boy from what appears to be flying debris. Details are coming in but the death has been confirmed, reported and the term "deadly" has been attached to Cindy. Many will be annoyed people will now report it as Deadly Tropical Storm Cindy and yet death is death and someone has died. And it is not surprising as the sheer size of a geographic area being affected by high winds, squally weather, high seas and debris caught up in strong bands coming on shore makes the situation ripe for the title Deadly. That is why the NHC has erred so much on the side of caution with this system even back when it was a Potential Tropical Cyclone.

The evolution of this situation and the need to convey the dangers inherent aren't easy when you look at the radar and it looks like another summer thunderstorm moving onto the beach. The Satellite signature doesn't scream "WATCH OUT" and for those of you who do not watch TV and don't see the TWC nonstop coverage and are watching HULU or NETFLIX the dangers may fly under the radar. Sadly, debris flies in the wind and it's deadly even in small tropical storms.

The watches and warnings are up and yet it's hard to tell people across a wide area to lay low and wait for the storm to move on. I know life goes on. Rules are often broken and warnings ignored when you are far from a weak tropical storm and you are used to dealing with much larger Hurricanes. And, that is the biggest problem Cindy delivers in that it's "just a weak tropical storm" and it's easy to believe this is all overkill in the media trying to get ratings and attention with lead news stories.

Look at the number of watches and warnings up above for that area.

Note the Tropical Storm symbol shown below.

It may not look like a serious system.

See those strong red cells moving onto shore?

Between them we think we can easily go about business.

Run out to the store, stop at the beach quick.

But they are moving fast in that tail with high gusts.

A rain wrapped tornado can be hidden in a rain band.

You might never see it coming...

Let's look at a map.

http://www.clemson.edu/ces/geolk12/semaps/seregional/screen/digielmap.jpg

Let's look at a random town.

Shreveport, Louisiana

You think to yourself it's far to the North of the coast.

Safer from problems of landfalling Cindy.

And yet there is a Flash Flood Watch.

Cone above from NHC

Warnings from NWS below:

Move further to the East and NE of Shreveport.

Elevation of the land adds to the problems.

So many small towns, rivers, streams and even bayous.

You have areas far inland that rarely deal directly with tropical storms other than a bit of rain as they fall apart. Cindy is merging with a stalled out frontal boundary and the rain will work it's way far inland. It's not being scooped up by a hungry, strong front and swept out to sea like so many Category 2 Hurricanes making landfall along the Gulf of Mexico are prone to doing. This is and will be a slow motion disaster in both dollar amounts and possibly more loss of life. It's a huge area under the gun from rain, wind, tornadoes, flash floods and add in fatigue in that people begin to get tired of staying home. They go out and about figuring they will be safe and sometimes that works and sometimes that doesn't work so well. 

Watch the merging of Cindy with the frontal boundary above.

There has also been a news story being some what attributed to Cindy when an United flight was hit by extreme turbulence and at least 12 have been injured. The FAA is looking into the incidence but if you are flying today along a route near Cindy keep your seat belt on as they often suggest but most people don't do. 

http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/video/dozen-people-injured-united-airlines-flight-due-turbulence-48170433

And Cindy looks more tropical this hour.

And with every hour ...

And that tail will head straight towards land.

Carrying strong wind with it.

Lay low, let it go it's way.

The sun will come out eventually.

Easy to say I know.

Wider view allows you to see the depth of that tail.

Also remnants of Bret are caught up in the flow.

Bret's remnants being fed by moisture off of South America.

An ULL lies between the tail of Cindy and Ex Bret.

Up the road, up hill across the Southeast.

Cindy will continue to spread misery.

Even as a barely there tropical storm.

Think of Cindy more as a Weather Event.

A dangerous weather event.

And now it will be called Deadly Cindy.

Hope and pray it is the last death attributed to Cindy.

Besos BobbiStorm

Follow me on Twitter @bobbistorm

Ps There is more weather out there to talk on in a few days.

It may not develop or it might.

But June this year is more like August in most years.

Waves are moving off of Africa.

This area is highlighted in purple to watch...

Again note the area highlighted below.

The potential for inland flooding is huge.

www.spaghettimodels.com