EPAC Tries. African Wave Tries to Flare Up. June too Soon? July Things Will Come Together. Water Vapor Loop Shows the Beginning of the Changes Coming.

This is an old school Water Vapor Loop.

Over the next few weeks you will see changes.

Everything flows, folds and is always evolving.

We are beginning the signature we see before things begin.

Despite Saharan Dust westbound waves fight their way West.

Moisture from the South is pushing North.

Systems coming of the East coast punch East.

At some point it becomes a clash zone.

Then we finally see what the High wants to do.

Watch the High over the SE dance back and forth.

The small Low off the coast of the Carolinas...

...finally gets picked up and sent out to sea.

The High goes West.......

The High moves into the GOM.

The High goes who knows... 

Why this is so important is down the road when waves become viable candidates for names and fame and begin the process of waking people up and realizing we are going to have a hurricane season you better have a plan. Why and where will they go? They will go where the High Pressure allows them to go. Think of the High Pressure as the General in charge of the battlefield or the Aircraft Control Tower trying to watch them take off of Africa and attempt to make a landing at an airbase somewhere along the hurricane coast.  Do this down the road named storm make landfall in South Florida or skirt the Florida coast or make it into the Gulf of Mexico turning North somewhere is all up to the High Pressure and where it is on any given day. If the High takes up a short term residence in the Gulf of Mexico and breaks apart where will that break form and will it leave Florida open to a landfalling hurricane? Or will it stay strong like some Science Fiction Force Field and protect Florida but not Texas? It's all about the High. 

The devil is always in the details.

In the fine print.

The NHC puts out fine print every day.

And they put out maps.

Note the maps below in particular.

Nicely spaced out.

Tomorrow you see waves.

The Day after tomorrow you see waves.... but wait.

What's that Low doing there to the North.

A frontal boundary.

Watch that loop above again and see the High wiggle West.

It's an atmospheric dance.

You never know what you find on YouTube.

But you get the idea....

When one feature moves this way....

...another feature moves that way.

And the waves move like they are dancing in a Conga Line..

It's also about how strong these waves are and currently they are strong and well spaced apart. Note the discussion today from the NHC on their ongoing wave watch and tropical Atlantic conditions they put out every day. When the shear lessens as it does eventually and the SAL loses control and the MJO makes his moves on the dance floor .... watch out!

"land in Miami the air hot from summer rain"

Yeah this year's pattern concerns me.

This brings me to the reminder that's it's been unbearably hot in Miami the last few weeks and wet, wet and hot and the beautiful Atlantic Ocean is warming up as I type this and listen to Gloria sing and dance. You know that new video going around called Senorita? Love it. So Miami and a bit of LA all mixed together but remember.... it speaks of landing in Miami and feeling the heat. Over 70 Million people have watched this video that was just released. That's HOT!

Currently we have a beautiful wave.....

.... there too soon.

Will more like this one soon follow?

Later rather than sooner one will develop.

This one is trying despite the dry dust guy SAL.

Look at that bright red color down there.

What can that wave be thinking?

Things are evolving.

Maybe something close in spins up sooner rather than later.

Nah just waiting for it's ticket out of town.

But look at that new wave over Africa.

EPAC may be getting their first storm.

Usually you wait a week to ten days for the Atlantic.

I'd say before July 10th or around then we will be busier.

Until then...... shop like Barry or Chantal are coming to party.

Because trust me once they start forming.

2019 will never be the same.

She's great.

Miami girls know hot, humid and sexy.

Trust me... and they know to take hurricanes seriously

;)

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps... did you really think you were going to get another video?

Go prepare. Make lists. Just do it.

If you don't and get slammed by a Cane....

...you will never ever be the same!!

Bottom Right on www.spaghettimodels.com

Lots of links.

Use them!

You got lots of music to listen to while using those links!

EPAC Erupts with an Invest & Special Statements. Storm May Form in Eastern Pacific ... High Moving Into Place in Atlantic. Hawaiian Lava Flows.

INVEST 90E

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=5

Epac 40% Orange in the 5 Day Frame.

Could a storm sneak in under the wire?

Start of EPAC season May 15th.

Some thoughts below:

I've checked several times today on this area as it has shown potential despite being very far off the coast of Mexico, actually over 1,000 miles to be almost exact. We usually look closer in for development and this is where they usually lose steam and unravel. Possibly a sign that this year in the tropics will be a bit different. While temperatures are warm off the coast they are cooler than usual this time of year, however there are pockets of warmer water further out as seen in these two images shown below.

Another wider view below.

Note a warm pool off water off the E Coast.

And in the middle of the GOM

Caribbean is balmy too!

Also worth noting.

Earthquakes in GOM aren't common.

As for the EPAC Invest.

There's a signature below.

Trying to form.

Might not...

...but it's trying.

IF it formed it would be Aletta

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml

This is the time of year I watch the set up and the patterns; the analog years and try to decipher what is unique about this year that may become the signature for 2018. Let's say for instance that this year the water is cooler near Africa and warmer closer in in the Western Atlantic. What could that mean? It could mean less "Fish Storms" and less long trackers, but more storms that could threaten the Islands, the Caribbean and the Bahamas. Oh and usually what gets into the Bahamas and the Caribbean can get into the Gulf of Mexico. There are so many possibilities and long range models can be iffy in years when unusual things happen. So keep watching. What I can say is a huge High is setting up steering whatever weak, westbound waves further west. The long link below with the image shows what could become a big player in the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_14km_wv&width=640&amp

;height=480&number_of_images_to_display=24

The above image is a compilation of 3 different models all showing the strong Bermuda High. Something to think on while you are making preparations for the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps . . . 

Worth noting that TWC has stepped up with more coverage of the Hawaiian Volcano and lava coming up out of fissures seemingly randomly out of the ground. This seems more like a bad Science Fiction Horror Movie vs anything within the realm of "normal" yet as some have pointed out this IS how the island of Hawaii was formed. Yet in times when they volcanoes are quiet we forget and we build and buy beautiful homes in paradise thinking the odds are in our favor. And, they complained about people buying swamp land in the 1920s in South Florida? Hmnn. 

https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/hawaii.html