Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, July 09, 2018

Wrightsville Beach Day. Tropical Storm Chris Waiting on Upgrade to Hurricane. Expansive Storm the Opposite of Hurricane Beryl. Remnants of Beryl to Follow Chris. More Waves Rolling Off Africa.

Red Flag Warning 
Not so much for the waves or wind...
...but what a Rip Tide.
Strong, nonstop energy.
You can definitely tell a Tropical Storm is off the coast.

Those people look as if they are far out into the water, but they really barely standing in surf to their ankles. The waves are washing in strong and pulling out even stronger. You can stand on Johnnie Mercer Pier and watch this watery, stormy ballet for the inexpensive cost of $2 per adult. Best show in town and what a wonderful fishing pier. Go out to the end where the weather equipment is and the hard core fishermen out there all the time in almost any weather. There's an area closer in by the restaurant where you can sit and lick your Bunny Tracks Ice Cream Cone while watching the show below. Doesn't get much better than that. Oh, did I mention the air temperatures were cool after the "cold front" zipped through and with the clouds out most of the time it's a delightful break from the "feels like 104" temperatures most of the cities round these parts dealt with last week. Don't go INTO the water but feel free to shop around the store in the Pier, enjoy some beach snacks and play pinball if you are tired of being out on the beach. The view from the pier in any weather is a winner.

Note on days like yesterday the waves were breaking far from the shore.
Surfers were out but not as much as usual.
I was told the winds were problematic.
Old video as Hurricane Irene was about to pass by.

Surfers love Wilmington.
Hard not to love Wrightsville Beach nearby.

Not going to do model discussion today.
You know where to find the models.

I'm going to write a bit today. 
So read or watch the pictures.
Some good videos.
Enjoy the music at the end.

Not going to long on discussion here about what will be with Chris because the reality is that at some point it will get picked up and go out to sea. It would have to be an epic forecast bust for this to come ashore and directly impact the coastline. Many storms have busted the forecast and taken a day trip to various parts of North Carolina in similar scenario, however it is not expected to do so. It is currently anchored or rather drifting a bit to the South while doing a loop. Understand water is warm there, warmer to the South but the problem Chris is having turning itself into the 2nd Hurricane of the 2018 Season is systemic to it's size and in contrast to small Tropical Storm Beryl that like a fast sports car was able to make those turns much faster than an 18 wheeler. 

Ever take a trip in a Winnebago? I haven't but know some people who have and they have to plot out the places they can go carefully, because there are some places they cannot go with a large, behomoth vehicle that you can barely park anywhere yet alone take on a high, sharp, twisting bridge. But out on the open road they look wonderful. Some people opt for the smaller kind and well to be honest some people pour their money into a boat and others pour their money into Motorhomes. Usually people who love the call of the open road, the romance of the trailer and many are afraid to fly. 

Think of Chris like a big ole Winnebago.
Big, fun, colorful.

It's harder for a big, huge, expansive circulation.
To ramp up into a hurricane.

But take a small, cute mustang.
Find a long, winding road.
Watch the small sports car do what...
...a large Winnebago could never do.

Because Beryl was so small it could evade the Saharan Dust in cooler water and do what a small, fast sports car could do. Huge, beautiful Chris looping off the Outer Banks and the Carolinas is so big, so large and it's wind field is having a problem contracting and maintaining extreme convection and the high winds it needs to become the hurricane it is forecast to do. This is a long term story, not for the feint of heart who need an immediate ending here. Move on if you are looking for a story told in a day or two. Watch the rescue of the Thai children stuck in the cave with their coach coming out by one one winding their way under water being led out by heroes risking their lives to get these kids to safety. Come back in a day or two Chris will be there. 

Discussion below:

Salient part in blue.


Still forecast to be a HURRICANE.

Now let's talk about Beryl.
I know they killed it off right?
Well...not so right.
They killed it off but....
...they are still watching it's remnants.

Seems like Beryl likes Chris.
Beryl's remnants 40% currently... redevelop.

For now "Beryl" is an open wave.
Note there is a very small swirl on some sat images left.
But it's easy to say it's dead in the water.
Not really.
Kicking up weather in the Islands.
Flaring up on radar bigger now ...
...than it was as a hurricane.

Actually Beryl's Remnants raining over PR
Below you can see our areas we are watching.
Chris off the Carolinas.
Remnants of Beryl in the Islands.
Tropical Wave coming off of Africa.
Moisture in the Caribbean.
Note how Beryl's Remnants are sucking up moisture..
..from the ITCZ
For now "Beryl" has a good fuel supply.

latest72hrs.gif (947×405)

Chris wants to be a hurricane.
Watch for baroclinic and extratropical in discussion.
Expansive Wind Field...

Note the tropics below.

In motion

hiatlsat_None_anim.gif (768×496)

Chris trying to pull it together.
Wearing pretty tropical colors today on NRL

Track from NRL.

Shaded area needs to watch carefully.
Track of Chris in red in the middle.

Below you can see Chris from up above.
You can't see Beryl's Remnants.

Turn the world around.
Maria in the West Pacific.
Moving towards China.

My youngest son is in China this week.
Enjoying Architectural wonders.
I'm home watching on Snapchat and WhatsApp

Yeah praying Maria finds a less populated spot to make landfall.
Then Shanghai or Beijing. 

What do you do about a problem named Maria?
Stop using that name please.
Trying not to think on that.

Let's go back to the beach.
Go, enjoy but stay out of the water.
Sit a spell.
Feel the waves on your toes.
Reach down and feel the water.
Life is good at the beach.

There's always that one guy.
Who needs to touch the water.
Feel it run through this fingers.

He and the others got swamped by a strong wave.
A little bit later. 

It was a wonderful day at the beach.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... I'll update as we get more information from Recon.
This will be a Live Blog at some point today.
If and when Chris is updated to Hurricane.
Til then enjoy the music.

Oh and I have a friend with a birthday today.
This song is for him.

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