Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, July 06, 2018

Beryl First Hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season.....TD 3 Forms in the Atlantic From Invest 96L....Will It REALLY Do? Oh and Maria in the Pacific is Channeling Maria From Last Year in the Atlantic. Huge Storm, Small Storms. We Cover Em All...

Breaking News...
Tropical Depression 3 Forms in the Atlantic.
Home Grown.
Off Carolina SE Coast.

Out of an abundance of caution...
...and uncertainty as to track.
The NHC maps are very wide...

The Cold Front and TD3

Nice sat image from Canadian Weather Center..

It shows the cold front well.
And shows TD3 well.
Below is a very large area being warned.

Actual Cone.

Pretty much most cities from Carolina to Maine are in wind probs.
The chance of this going inland is slim
But if you city (like mine?) is in there.
Pay attention to this until we see what we shall see.

Take those wind probs with much salt.
But be aware they were put there for a reason.

One of the better Tweets today explains this well.

Some discussion here is necessary and some explanations. Currently the stronger winds are to the East of the Center far out in the ocean. The front that was supposed to pick this area up and interact with it is indeed on the move through the Caroinas. However it's not supposed to grab it and take it anywhere. As the High builds in, retrograde patterns continue the area should loop about off the Carolina coasts. High surf may be a problem and in general everyone just needs to watch it. There is high uncertainty as to what exactly it will do and it is reliant in part on the cold front now creating flash flooding in the Raleigh area and strong thunderstorms that is moving through the area.... well until we see what the cold front does in the next few days and what the high does it's basically up for grabs what TD3 will do. TD 3 could become Tropical Storm Chris down the road. I agree with everything that the NHC has said in this last package. It's complicated and on top of that there is a large area of convection to the SE of TD3 that could end up interacting with TD3 more than the actual cold front. Time will tell. Recon is supposed to go into the area on Saturday and we should know more after they take a look up close. 

So let's look at Hurricane Beryl. Oh it seems there is the same uncertainty with regard to the future of that storm as well. Sometimes you just need to be honest and tell it like it is...  Due to the small size of Hurricane Beryl without recon and better data everyone is just taking a stab in the dark trying to do the best they can to provide the most warning for those in it's path. It's a small path but it's a path that currently could take strong tropical storm force winds over the islands if not even hurricane force. I just want to add that I do not believe Beryl is moving all that fast. 15 MPH is as steady and normal as it gets in that part of the Atlantic. 20 MPH is speeding, Beryl is not speeding. May make a good headline but it's not accurate. 

New models for Hurricane Beryl.
Where Beryl "dies' now seems up for grabs.
Most models kill it off in Carib.
Some take it up towards Florida.
Maybe following TS Chris?

Nice front in the Carolinas.

Earlier information.
Some important discussion if you have not read it.
Please read.

11 AM.

We went from tiny Beryl to Brazen Beryl
Things change fast in the tropics.
That's not a dimple... it's an EYE.

We also expect watches to go up soon for the Islands.
Let me blow that up.
Gitmo is now in the grid......

Cities keep getting added to "wind probs" 

The tropical wave that wasn't supposed to survive survived. The tropical wave became an Invest and it wasn't supposed to get that far. The Invest became a Tropical Storm and we now have an intensifying hurricane continuing to move West in a relatively positive environment that will allow it to keep strengthening for the time being. If you watch the loop below you will see a few things that help explain what has gone all here with Beryl. Note the blue colors keep getting shoved out of the way by the minuscule much maligned Beryl as people online like to make fun of it's size. Laugh but it's got hurricane force winds and if... big if...they can make it to the Islands it could impact a small area with intense winds. Or slide between two islands, but never the less it's a hurricane so deal with it. 

latest72hrs.gif (947×405)

Also notice the wave behind it pushes out a red orange band of moisture out over Beryl cutting off the dry air helping Beryl stay healthy. The size of Beryl helps it as small cyclones have less impact from SAL than big, huge ones do. It takes less time for them to form, wrap and move ... much like a small red sports car. 

The white area in the red orange area is an EYE.

Good discussion in the link below:

Note that the cone goes into the Islands and it does not fall apart until it nears Hispaniola at this point. I say at this point because the track and intensity level of Beryl seems to be a moving target. Note the pictures below with regard to Invest 96L. Watch the "formation zone" for 96L keep moving West until it actually touches the North Carolina Coast.

Sometimes the details are important.

Watch the progression of SAL.

2 images over time.
SAL is there.... 
...but it didn't put the kibosh on Beryl.

Another good link to SAL forecast:

You can find this and many other good sites...

Models always changing but here are the models.

96L most likely going to develop into TD 3
Or eventually TS Chris.

Cliff notes here basically .... the interaction with the front is not going to be strong enough to melt it's beating heart... it's tougher than it looks. The front is tough, strong and moving faster than expected. It's all a matter of timing. What the front does not destroy sits around and vacillates about trying to decide where to go. Just as an example of what could happen look at the track of Isabel and how it came into NC a whole lot stronger than expected. 

And then there was Bob.

In truth 96L may not amount to much.
But those are historical storms to think on.

Another look at the dense CDO below of Beryl.

I'll update later in the day as things develop.
Expect them to develop.

* * *

Hard to see on some satellite imagery.
But it's there trust me.
You can see the eye in the image below well.
Good tweet.

You can even see it here...

Look close. It's a small pinhole eye.

I know it's a small hurricane.
The latitude line is hiding it's inner core :(

Adding to this buffet of tropical events.

Invest 96L most likely will become Chris.

80% is high odds.
Red alert.
Close to the coast.

I suggest you learn the names.
Though this season should not be as intense.
It's not a dud and they will keep coming.
Small, medium and large we track them all.

Quick post this morning to mark the event of the First Hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean in 2018, the first of several I'm sure. The death of this Hurricane Season was prematurely written on the subway halls and all forms of social media. Again it will not be 2017, it will take a long time to have another hurricane season as active, but it will be 2018 Hurricane Season whatever that turns out to be. Lately it's turning out to be busy on the tropical highways of the Atlantic. Invest 96L has high odds of formation and the forecast is iffy on just what will be with that system. The front is moving down into the Carolinas later today, but the end game on this storm that may linger off the Carolinas for a while waiting for the next bus out of town may go on and on. Meanwhile Hurricane Beryl is kind of barreling down Latitude 10N moving towards the Islands. With luck it will fall apart before the islands but we don't bank on luck we bank on preparation and always staying informed on the storm.

Officially the NHC forecast hopes Beryl will fall apart before the Islands; they are still recovering from Maria and Irma. Hope doesn't really cut it. There was hope that Invest 96L would get swooped up by the cold front and dragged away from the coast. That could play out but we will know more in real time. You see that is what tropical weather is all about. It evolves in real time.

This is Maria in the West Pacific. It's a really big, huge strong hurricane. I'd use bigger words but I'd rather not go there. It's currently on course to hit Shanghai where my youngest son is staying for the next two weeks with some trips to see famous architectural sties. Yeah, well that's totally typical right that a Cat 8 Hurricane is on it's way. It's not Cat 8 I'm making a joke.  My iPhone 6S Plus that I recently started using gave me the black screen white gear screen of death this morning so I had to load all of my social media accounts onto a back up phone I have because I'm BobbiStorm and that took forever. The coffee pot didn't turn on this morning because we turned the timer off yesterday and forgot so the coffee wasn't happening any faster than my iPhone was going to work but thankfully easier to resolve. So now I have had coffee, texted my son in China, taken a shower and put Snapchat and Instagram etc on the other phone so I have a lifeline to people I care about.... and now I am going to the chiropractor. 

I'll be back. I'll update on our Hurricane and our soon to be TD3 or Chris or whatever they call it after Invest 96L. Maria is kind of keeping my enthusiasm on having a hurricane in the Atlantic Basin in check. You understand.......  

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps Option 1 worked!

God Bless YouTube.

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