Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, July 03, 2018

Invest 95L Forms in Atlantic. Models Show Development. Vigorous Tropical Wave. Area Off East Coast Has Potential.

Invest 95L Tagged in the Atlantic.
Some question on why 95L vs 92L...
...but I'm just showing what they put up.
Described as a vigorous wave.
You can see the SAL to it's North.
It's staying low for now.

Note the overall NHC map.

Early models on MDR Tropical Wave
MDR = Main Development Region.

More models shown below.

Not much there.
Let this stand as a bar for tomorrow.
Small sense of circulation.

Behind this wave are more waves.

Lastly worth noting it's still raining on the GOM coast.

 I just want to make it clear that the wave in the Atlantic has low chances of making it into any intense but the fact that it exists and is being tagged and watched should make it clear to you that no matter how many articles are written on how this is a quieter year than 2017 it is far from a nothing year. Something from nothing seems to be the manner of development so far this year. Even in cooler water tropical waves keep moving Westbound into warmer water.

The area closer to the East coast that has 50% chances in the next 5 days has a slim chance of attaining the name Beryl. So far, due to a forecast cold front moving down into the Carolinas , the system is forecast to stay off shore. Time will tell on the cold front and how far off shore it will stay.

We will know more tomorrow. As always in any year be it quiet or strong you need to keep your guard up and be prepared should tropical trouble show up at your door suddenly.

The blue is Cotton Candy Frozen Yogurt.

It's summer in Raleigh.

Otherwise tonight was a beautiful night in Raleigh. The temperatures at 10:30 went down to 85 and we went out for ice cream, sat outside and enjoyed the cool treat. I'd love the temperatures to go down to what they are forecast to be but I'll believe it when I see it. The cold front being this strong was not in the forecast and neither were two systems being watched in the Atlantic when the NHC kept putting up "nothing expected" signs for the last several days. Weather pops up, that's the nature of weather. And, as always models are at their best when they have a solid center to work with. When we are in a pattern such as this where High Pressure is strong to the North it's common for Low Pressure to try and form to the South. This has been going on forever. Stay tuned.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps This morning when I put up the grid with the purple splotches I wasn't being "silly" that was foreshadowing. Things are indeed popping up everywhere.

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