Wednesday. Tropics Quiet. Texas Dealing With Quite A Lot of Rain From the Tropics. Extreme Early Heat Across Parts of USA. Manatees Swim North to Warm Water Off East Coast

In South Texas they have had torrential rain.

Over a relatively short period of time.

Flooding ensues when that happens.

However it's not a Tropical system.

You can see the RAIN on Spaghetti Models Main Page.

The NHC grid is there too.

No new Tropical Cyclones are expected . . .

Understand Tropical Rain doesn't get a name or a designation and it's covered by the local NWS offices, the local TV stations, online media and you probably have at least two WhatsApp Groups going on talking about the heavy rain and localized flooding from the remnants of X 91L that never developed. The irony is that had it developed into a small Tropical Storm it most likely would have made less of a mess across the wider area. It might have actually moved inland and been caught up by a diving frontal boundary. If.... we had diving frontal boundaries which we do not as we are in the midst of a Heat Wave in parts of the South and along the East Coast. What we have are West bound Tropical Waves and nothing more. Kind of normal for June during the Hurricane Season. The images below with discussion are from the NWS Discussion this morning at 8 AM.

The last wave mentioned has the most discussion. It's a wave and it covers a large area as it is not organized; it's when we talk about a wave axis. Note it extends from Venezuela to the  Mona Passage. Sometimes, but rarely, a part breaks off and that part makes a run at trying to organize. Or a piece of it makes it into another area where development is more favorable. That is what Dabuh talks about on Twitter when he discusses the area near the Mona Passage. 

Satellite image of the large Tropical Wave.

Bottom Right corner....

...is another smaller, intense, W bound wave.

Running Low in the water.

June in the tropics.

NHC weighs in on Texas.

NWS graphics

Note the orange color along the SE coast.

That's the "Heat Wave"

More on that later in this post.

Texas coast lit up with warnings from X91L

"weak trough" "with little effect"

No cold fronts diving down this June.

Extremely warm water along the East Coast.

It's only going to get warmer.

Speaking of warm water.

Manatee spotted at OBX.

When I speak of "warm water" I do so as foreshadowing discussion down the road of Home Grown possibilities either in popping up seemingly out of nowhere or from Tropical Waves that did not develop further out near Africa and traveled to our side of the world where they find welcoming, warm water that if there is no shear there can bring development close in to the coast. A manatee was seen in waters near the Outer Banks and that's rare for June. While they do wander their way North from Florida they usually only go where they can live and that is where the water is warm. If the water pools it's way North they follow the water and strike out for exotic ports of call. Normally this time of year when we go to the Outer Banks I won't even walk in the water up to my ankles as it is ice cold. Being a very warm blooded creature born and raised in Miami I don't swim in the Pacific and I don't dash into the waves at the Outer Banks screaming "it's not that cold!!" so I know what the water is like generally there this time of year. I remember in 2012 we went there for a bit and not only did my husband stay in the water (usually he seems to need to prove it's not that cold in June by jumping in and then coming out fast... he's from upstate New York not Miami)  I actually played in the water thinking how odd it was for the water to be that warm. It was a beastly hot summer in the Carolinas. 2016 was another year with anormaly warm water close in to the coast and often when that happens Manatees travel further North than normal and stay sometimes too long and then hurricanes move close in along those same waters. 

Only showing the storms close in to the East Coast.

2016.

Hermine was a coastal cruiser.

Julie formed so close in...

..she was named over Florida.

Just some things to think about.

A "heat wave" is defined as "a prolonged period of abnormally hot weather" and that's the short definition. Many meteorologists will argue what exactly is or isn't a "heat wave" indefinitely until the said heat wave has dissipated. People do love to talk about the weather. In truth deciding if several days of excessive heat is a "HEAT WAVE" is  like describing an operation. If it's happening to you it's a major operation, if it's happening to someone else it may be a minor operation. If a Heat Wave comes early in the season before it's officially Summer than panic often sets in as people worry this will go on and on through August. Panic leads to rash actions, depression and arguing over topics such as "what is a heat wave" and that's where we are at today in the South.

Note the video from JULY 27th, 2017 that shows how local news outlets cover heat waves. July not June is usually when we see these long spells of "feels like" 104 degrees more so than June.



There was a memorable heat wave in 2012 in our area. I'm finding parallels to 2012 to this year.

https://www.wral.com/weather/story/11267802/

Sometimes Summer comes early followed by an early Fall and Winter lands too soon at people's door that either love the Summer heat or love to complain about how hot it is . . .

If you believe in MJO know that Joe Bastardi is following Dabuh's tropical wave with references to an expected MJO to show up in that area. There is nothing officially happening. Models are hinting at lower pressures near Florida over hot water down the road. All I can say is you have to watch a pattern that produces Home Grown Trouble also known as coastal cruising Hurricanes or Tropical Storms.

My daughter Dina got that shot.

She grabbed my phone and leaned out the window.

Great pic

In 2014 my daughter and I spent the day at the beach in July in New York watching Arthur pass by offshore and shower the area with strong cells that made for great pictures. These storms do sometimes just pop up off shore of Florida and with an absence of stronger steering currents they travel North with the Gulf Stream visiting exotic Northern coastal Ports of Call much like our wayward manatee. Something to think on during these hot Dog Days of June when the heat came on way too soon and the water temperatures off the East Coast are hot to trot so to speak and very inviting for tropical trouble.

So stay tuned. I'll update when there is something to say.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps Will see how hot it really gets today ....In Miami people would be thrilled to have it in the 70s at 9 AM but round these parts the hottest part of the day is late in the day just before Sunset. Yesterday it was 95 degrees at 8 PM and the feels like was closer to 100 degrees.