Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, June 14, 2018

91L Still Hanging On. Strong EF2 Tornado Last Night in Wilkes Barre. Worried on the 2018 Hurricane Season as Mid Atlantic is at a High Risk. Early Strong Tropical Waves That Could Develop After Crossing the Atlantic Close In Over Hot Water.Updated 8 PM!

8 PM Update.
10% in 5 days
0% in 2 days.
Time is running out.

Convection but nothing more tonight.
Again more convection in E GOM
And off E Coast literally of FL 
Maybe tomorrow.....
... 91L still has some running room.

Models show they have come around to Tex Mex.
If you remember I've said this most likely is a Tex Mex system.

If you remember I said where this system forms if it forms makes all the difference. If it had formed further to the East or on the tip of the Yucatan that would bring it into the GOM. If it doesn't form until it moves into the BOC than it's a Tex Mex system in total congruence with CLIMO for June systems this time of year. Often they ramp up just off shore when they can smell the scent of suntan oil on sunbathers and the NHC upgrades them to TD status or even TS status if the models show support. It's an iffy set up and hard to totally rule out so we are watching it and nothing more.  Remember models can often be wrong and it's important to know when to use a model and when to use discretion.  Remember when the cone for Matthew bended so far SE and then South that on one advisory they put South Florida back into the cone. Matthew did not do what the models indicated it could do. This is the graphic before that last one. Models are great but sometimes they come up short.

And, speaking of the Atlantic....
There is a purple blob in the Atlantic.

One of those waves that SAL didn't quite kill.
Just something to watch.

Update on the Wilkes Barre Tornado.
It was updated to a strong EF2 Tornado.
And that area I showed over Iowa...
...produced flooding rains today.
Flooding at Iowa State University.
Weather is always happening.
Invest 91L has designation ...
...but there's way more weather happening elsewhere.
That wave Mid Atlantic is impressive in that it is there.
Feels more like late July than early June.
Stay tuned.
Keep reading if you didn't earlier.

* **

Over the Yucatan.
Over land.
Not ready for prime time yet...

Cranky provides good insight.
Messy scenario still.
May produce something yet.

Not much happening currently.
Low chances given by NHC.

But it's got a Hashtag
So TWC will play up the possibilities.
Cause as always it's hard to let go....

In truth there is much to discuss in the Hurricane Basin aside from Bud weakening but moving towards landfall as a much weakened remnant of the Major Hurricane that it was the other day. Again keep in mind Rapid Intensification is a thing and can occur often even when it is not talked about as a possibility.  There are many things not talked about.  Babuh talks about them and explains what to look for in areas that have that "look" going on... and have mild support by upper level conditions and historical analog. He doesn't just point to a spot in the ocean and go "THERE LOOK!!" there is a method behind his pretend madness.  One official place to look for possible trouble is actually the NHC as they put out regular information on tropical waves they are watching that matter even though they do not have a name or a Hashtag yet. It's worth a read every now and then so you don't get blind sided by something entering Stage Right while TWC is showing graphics for Stage Left.  Happens and what also happens is tropical weather over very warm water popping up close in to shore.

That's a lot of tropical waves.

What is unique about this wave over Africa that has since jumped into the still cool waters of the Atlantic is that is it way ahead of schedule. Not it's presence, but it's latitude as normally this time of year they roll off lower and not as developed. This is the Lolita of early tropical waves before even June 15th. Google it ...  And mid Atlantic is the the remnant of the previous wave that was impacted by SAL (Saharan Dust) but it did not kill it as it rides along westbound trying to get to a place in the pool where it can touch bottom. Remember when you were a child and learned to swim? Maybe you weren't a great swimmer but you could tread water enough to pass the "deep water test" in camp but every time you felt like you might drown but you didn't want to look stupid and NOT go in the deep end with the cool kids. So you frantically doggy paddled while trying to smile and look calm while inside you were freaking until you got to that part of the pool where your feet could finally touch bottom and you could relax. That's what those early July waves do as they roll off Africa trying to hit that spot by Dakar earning them the attention of the people at the NHC. This is June, we are way ahead of schedule. We have had early derechos and flash flooding in the Mid Atlantic very reminiscent of 2012. And the Mid Atlantic has been in play for days and days with one weather story after another. Tornadoes are scarce in Oklahoma but touching down in Pennsylvania. Think about it a while. I don't think I have to draw you a map for the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

I'm not saying nothing will come from 91L
I'm saying bigger things need to be thought on.

Things unseen in the middle of the night.
A probable tornado touched down in Wilkes Barre PA
Something wicked touched down there.
Tore up a Panera Bread store ...
...Barnes and Noble.
Large structures with severe damage.
Yet TWC was not there.
They had their taped "Tornado Alley"show running..
...while a tornado was seen in a large metro area.
You really can't make this stuff up.
And...they did not break in for live coverage.
Do they lock up the building at 9 PM?

In the realm of you can't make this up everyone on Twitter connected to weather was trying to get real live time reports as to what exactly happened. The area was highlighted by both the government sources as well as the usual excellent online weather sources and yet there was no coverage on TWC. I thought for sure at the end of the "Tornado Alley" show they would go top of the hour live with a little bit of coverage but they began a segment on sinkholes and other odd things that go bump in the night. What was going bump in the night was the town and the economy of Wilkes Barre. 

Unbelievable indeed.

This morning TWC led with Invest 91L.

You can see the shear there present still.
More potential for trouble in the Mid West.
Wondering on consistent energy off Florida.

The 2017 Hurricane Season really has not totally left the crime scene. The ongoing arguing over what the real death toll is in Puerto Rico is a bit crazy and I imagine if no one actually says over 1,000 people died or even 500 people died and they keep saying 64 then it makes PR look like a safer tourist destination? The USA government really let the ball drop on this one I believe as PR is a US territory and they American citizens yet it's treated like it's a far away island like Fiji not just a short plane ride from Miami close in and well what can I say that hasn't been said. When you have a complete breakdown of civilization it is hard to get an exact death toll as parts of PR are still trying to keep the power on and the get back to normal. In the Florida Keys nothing is really normal down in the Middle to Lower Keys where housing is expensive and practically impossible to find unless you are the rich and famous. In South Florida homes still have blue tarps and investors are buying up property people do not want to repair and on the larger scale they are buying up golf courses that took a huge hit during Hurricane Irma to build condos and townhouses. Land is valuable and rather than keep taking chances on this year's hurricane season many are selling out to those with money to invest and who can afford the risks.

Yes... I'm worried this season could be similar to 2012.
Or maybe the 1954 hurricane season.
Every day that passes.
Every 100 degree temperature in sight in June ...
...brings us one step closer to tropical trouble.
Or 1985. I don't have to paint you a picture do I?
Google those years... dangerous coastal storms.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

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