Updated Monday AM July. SAL is in Charge of the East Atlantic. Waves Keep Rolling Off of Africa. Models Suggest Development Close In Along GOM of "Something" and Area E of FL Should be Watched. How Are You Beating the Heat? A Trip to Siler City in NC and a Look Back at 2012 A Year of Heat Waves, Derechos and Finally Hurricane Sandy.

https://www.surfline.com/surf-news/ts-fabio-likely-rapidly-intensify/29114 

Not there yet....

...still forecast to become a Hurricane.

NHC headline this morning.

Fabio is the only game in town today.

Why do we care?

Well if you have any surfer friends on the West Coast.

They care. Surf's up there!

Want to know what's going on in the weather?

Ask a surfer they always know.

It's wave season in the tropics.

Tropical Wave Season that is....

In the Atlantic Basin...

Lot's of areas to watch today.

The coast of the GOM is once again being watched.

Yesterday Satellite view below

Today's satellite view below.

GOM bloby area flirting with the water. 

Convective swath in the Atlantic.

That's Westbound by the way.

Westbound across FL into the GOM.

Atlantic Tropical Wave still there...

...despite Saharan Dust to it's North.

July in the Tropics.

Many GOM storms started out E of Florida.

Katrina to name one.

Katrina a rare hurricane to mention.

Again they don't always form near Africa.

1935 another hurricane formed in the same spot.

Tropical systems can develop this way..

...from convection that moves Westbound.

So keep watching.

But enjoy a stellar July 4th Week!

Note how the energy moves about.

Surges, oozes.

Very fluid.

Watery fireworks.

Moist, noticeable ITCZ

Surging slowly West.

Lifts over time.

So what do we think on today?

1. It's worth watching the area close in along the Gulf of Mexico for possible development down the road very close in. Models regularly develop something, but nothing tremendously strong. But even a slow moving wet mess can make misery for many as we learned a few weeks ago. Out in the Atlantic to the East of Florida is an area where pressures are lowering as pressures to the North of it are high and that usually allows pressures to drop to the South of said strong high pressure. Every day in every way there is more color in that area off of Florida and more moisture lingering over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Officially nothing is happening according to the NHC. 

2. It's also worth noting that even though the waves coming off of Africa are falling victim to the strong SAL now in control of the East Atlantic they are flaring up as they move into the Caribbean. This mornings discussion from the NHC spoke of a wave moving through the Islands kicking up some weather. Seems as strong as SAL is it's not totally killing the waves off as much as we would like.

3. I know it's hot. Everyone's talking about it. Maybe that's what adds to the hot air? Embrace the heat ;) Enjoy a cold drink or a dip in the pool or just stay home and keep taking cold showers. The struggle is real but there's always a way to enjoy the day. Often it involves Ice Cream ;)

I'm putting up some thoughts and links to actual research on topics we have seen tossed about as both click bait and headlines during these quiet days in the tropics. There is so much reposting of the same headlines regarding the possible arrivals of El Nino before Santa Claus is even done making your newest toy. There are headlines about cool water by Africa much cooler than last year and that would mean less hurricanes in total than last year. With or without cool water by Africa or a possibly developing El Nino the chance of having as powerfully, active a year as 2017 is slim to none for any number of reasons. In truth....there are so many factors that need to come together to have a busy hurricane season with storms strong enough to make it across the Atlantic Basin and make landfall along the Atlantic Coast. Often it's easier to hit the Caribbean Islands if Cape Verde storms are in play, but then again it's just as easy for them to become Fish storms swimming far away from even Bermuda. And, then you have to worry on hurricanes that form in the Caribbean and move North such as Hurricane Sandy, Hurricane Camille and Hurricane Katrina that formed just off of Florida and moved West into the Gulf of Mexico.

Let's look at the El Nino factor. Are we heading into an El Nino Year or is this a Neutral year? El Nino is called El Nino because we tend to expect him to show up the same way holiday decorations show up in November heading into the Christmas Season. It's not called Juno or Julio it's called El Nino for a reason. And, some years such as 1997 El Nino shows up whenever he wants to... wherever he wants to. But the 1997 El Nino was just as rare as the busy hurricane season of 1995 and the crazy intense hurricane season of 2017 when a hurricane couldn't form without ending up a Major Hurricane.

For the record 1997 was the Mother of El Ninos.
1995 was considered a weak El Nino year.
2017 was considered a weak La Nina year.
The jury is still out on 2018.

You can look through the lists below and read up on El Nino and La Nina and the various Neutral years.

https://www.weather.gov/tbw/tampabayelninopage

Where are we currently? We are waiting to see what actually happens. But, despite what is happening people keep reposting, rewriting the same articles that were passed around last week and the week before that. Currently we are not there yet...

No real stand out orange red pool of water.

Some warm color off of Peru.

A bit of cold blue water by Chile.

A warm pool of water East of Spain.

Cool blue waters around 15 N.

Yellow warmer water around 5N

Hey warm water off the E coast of Brazil..

Let's compare this to other years.

Whoah! 

You can see how different this year is from those above.

Neither here nor there yet.

As for 1995.... 

Chicago had a Heat Wave from Hell that summer.

http://www.chicagomag.com/Chicago-Magazine/July-2015/1995-Chicago-heat-wave/ 

Will our hurricane season heat up in the same way or does that not factor into analog discussion? There are so many ways to slice and dice historical weather. Let's look at 2012 another year with a historical Heat Wave along the Mid Atlantic. Actually a derecho hit the same area and it looked like the end of the world. Links below show that info. 

http://www.climatecentral.org/blogs/was-the-heat-wave-an-unprecedented-event

Interesting though...

... 2012 got way worse.

Is there a correlation?

Was it a coincidence?

2012 was a moderate La Nina.

Not such a moderate hurricane season though..

Time will tell but the real story will be told in August when historically the East Atlantic Warms up and SAL wanes enough after wave after wave moistens up the atmosphere trying to make a moist, warm atmosphere for August and September tropical waves coming off of Africa. SAL is making big headlines. What the articles don't tell you is June and July are to SAL what September is to the Hurricane Season; this is SAL's time of year. SAL is extremely strong this year. Oddly waves coming off of Africa are just as stubbornly strong for June and early July. Again time will tell. We are not there yet.

2012 below.

Look closer.

Looks familiar doesn't it?

Let's look at this year currently.

Basically pretty normal.

Stronger than average.

Exact time of year we deal with SAL.

Heat Alerts a bit early.

So let's look back at 2012 as a year with a similar early, strong heat wave in late June and July. It turns out we were dealing with strong Saharan Dust outbreaks that year and there were studies done then that are worth reading up on if you have the time and would like to sit a spell in the AC while drinking Iced Tea (Sweet of course) and maybe use a good meteorological dictionary. It's not that hard a report to understand. Good work.

https://www.weather.gov/media/mfl/Dust_paper_July_2012.pdf

Note it says that when SAL is strong it inhibits sunlight and the water off of Africa is noticeably cooler. Makes sense. Note that despite the strong SAL and the various other aspects that affect Hurricane Season 2012 turned out to be a dangerous year for a good part of the Atlantic Basin especially with regard to the Mid Atlantic Coast that was besieged by numerous heat alerts and derechos as well as Saharan Dust making beautiful tropical colored sunsets in South Florida and beyond.

Looking back at my own blog you'll see I was concerned about the weather events in the Mid Atlantic and reminding readers that the 1954 Hurricane Season showed the Mid Atlantic being besieged by Hurricanes. We had strong weather in Iowa (flooding, storms), waves coming off Africa early succumbing to SAL and what apparently was record heat in Raleigh matching patterns for 1954 the same time of year as last week's "epic" heat wave in Raleigh. Nothing new under the sun really. But patterns do exist and need to be watched carefully to see if they repeat but with their own unique spin on a remake of other infamous hurricane seasons.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2012/06/

Above was 2012 in late June.

Sounds familiar doesn't it.

Looks a bit familiar.

Later in the 2012 things changed.

As they so often do.

You can watch yourself.

Note it took a while to get going.

GOM fluff and stuff.

Outbreaks of SAL visible.

Then it gets busy.

Here's a video with time stamps.

2012 had a virtual tropical buffet of all you can eat storms both weak and strong storms, Fish Storms that developed when the SAL waned and zoomed up harmlessly into the East Atlantic and then when the EPAC season waned Hurricane Sandy formed in the Caribbean, trashed Cuba, threatened Florida and took aim on the Mid Atlantic States making historic impacts on the beaches of New Jersey and New York.  A hurricane to remember. But earlier in the summer we were worried on historic heat and derechos and making jokes about SAL and how beautiful the sunsets were in June and July. Then things changed. 

As always time will tell.

1994 and 1995

Note commonality.

East Atlantic storms form later in the season.

Almost always.

Even weak systems can cause misery.

An excellent compare and contrast hurricane research study is posted below as relates to the image above from said report. The report compares the 1994 hurricane season to the busier 1995 hurricane season. This is what we do basically we study and research and try to figure out how to better warn people when a hurricane is actually on the map and tracking towards a possible landfall. This year may be a way quieter year with less ACE as it's doubtful we will have as many hurricanes let alone as many major hurricanes as 2017 produced. However as always time will tell and we won't know until the year is over. And, then .... we will study the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season for clues to better warn people in 2019; maybe finally figuring out the holy grail of better being able to predict rapid intensification. This is what meteorologists do... they study, they research, they compare notes, collaborate and re-evaluate what we knew in the past with what we know now. 

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<1106>2.0.CO%3B2

We compare, we contrast, we complain it's slow then we complain we can't keep up because it's so busy. Nothing new under the sun. We wait for summer to begin, then we count down the days until cooler weather in the Fall. Are we ever really happy? Sometimes I wonder...

Today was a beautiful, extremely hot day in Raleigh. It was record breaking hot in many places especially along the East Coast. The press getting a vacation from ongoing polarizing news stories from the left to the right camps is suddenly talking about weather. Really, I'd rather talk weather than politics any day.

I went for a ride with my husband out towards Pittsboro where I got some awesome books at one of the best used book stores around. We then drove out to Siler City as I've always wondered what was such a big deal about Siler City as Andy Griffith was always going there on the Andy Griffith Show. It was a nice drive, rolling hills, forested areas, farms and apparently the actress who played Aunt Bee is buried there. Now I know the rest of the story. Cross that one off my Bucket List. It's changed a lot since Aunt Bee died as the Walmart moved in and it's the busiest part of town... the bank was busy, the Subway was busy and well things change but things don't change all that much. 

https://www.facebook.com/pages/biz/topic_book_store-pittsboro/Circle-City-Books-Music-212946965498739/

https://www.findagrave.com/memorial/1457/frances-elizabeth-bavier 

(She was in the Day the Earth Stood Still??? Wow!!)

Nice day......... 

This is July 4th Week... some people took off this weekend, some took off next weekend and some if they can are just taking off the whole week! Jordan Lake on the way back was busy with boaters, hawks and eagles circling in the sky while I watched the clouds fly by. North Carolina is as beautiful and real as Aunt Bee said it was ... and even if it was 94 degres with a heat index of 105 the AC was cool, the view was beautiful and listen it's summer. This is what happens in the summer. It gets hot. And, then it gets not so hot. Then cold fronts try to move again just as tropical waves really begin to find their groove and suddenly no one is talking about Cousin SAL anymore. The El Nino discussion will continue until he either arrives on time, early or not really at all. 

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps..........  Keep watching the Gulf of Mexico very close in and the area off the East Coast that shows promise for some development. Enjoy those colorful sunsets, they don't last forever; the same way the fireflies of June disappear in July stronger waves begin to be contenders as we move towards August. Have a wonderful July! I'm making a late night dinner of BBQ Chicken, fresh corn from the Piggly Wiggly in Pittsboro and a beautiful sald. Oh... Sweet Potatoes also! Y'all come back now real soon. Perhaps we will eventually have something to talk about; even an Invest or a weak kneed tropical storm. 

Summer ...Hot Days, Stormy Nights. Carolina Summer. Will Something Form Off the SE Coast? Maybe. Which Model Do You Believe? 100s in NYC on July 4th or Tropical Trouble Off SE Coast? Models ... Hmnn.

In the Tropical Caribbean above.

In the steamy, warm Carolinas below.

I woke up early this morning and watched the sunrise in Raleigh. Tall clouds off in the distance were illuminated a bit by the bright morning sunrise portending more weather to roll through the area later in the day. Last night a system slid across into the area from Greensboro to Durham and then it kept on rolling all the way to the beach. Should have gone to the beach. Wilder storms the further East they rolled exiting into the Atlantic with stark images tweeted and retweeted online last night. In truth I had a really nice day yesterday in the Raleigh area where despite the intense heat it was beautiful. See the picture above in the parking lot outside the Trader Joes in Cary, NC. This is not a black and white photo below. Love the way the pines look like black lace against a gray sky.

\

Before.

Few hours later.

After.

It really is beautiful up here in this neck of the woods. The beach is always there. It was a nice, warm sunny, Sunday and then it was not as evidenced by the image above. Last night Mark Sudduth posted this spectacular illuminating tweet on Twitter a few hours after the storms rolled over my place where I sat on the balcony and watched the rain fall and listened to the cacophony of watery, musical nirvana. I love the rain. I love thunder. Yesterday the Carolinas offered it all in one summery package.

In the satellite loop at the top you can see the typical storms down near South America (our hemisphere's version of storms coming off of Africa) and the swirl of the ULL in the Caribbean (something spins ..) and coming off of the Carolinas is a storm system that leaves behind a vague signature that is sometimes prone to spinning up some small system similar to the early BOC weak systems wandering west into Tex Mex. This time of year there are 2 spots where tropical fluff stuff tends to form and more often than not it is usually insignificant. Sometimes they can get out of control like yesterday's storms in the Carolinas and be stronger than expected. As this year June feels more like July and it's late in the month let's go to this beautiful, timeless graphic from The Weather Channel. Usually the Crepe Myrtle is our late summer star keeping bursts of color everywhere until leaves begin to turn colors. Some years it burst into color early such as this year in the same way we are having late July heat in Raleigh in late June. So let's look at July in the Tropics. Where do storms form?

The EURO model has been pushing a possible tropical event off the Carolinas later in the forecast period but not a long ways off. I'm not super keen on this model currently or any model until I see something that shows me it's not suffering from heat stroke. It's very plausible that some mischief could form in that region as we will have another series of storms later today and what's in the Plains now is coming our way later in the week. Add in a moderating "cool front" is moving through dropping out high temperatures down to the high 70s or low 80s for 1 day this week. Obviously that "front" is going nowhere fast and will die out leaving a front boundary off shore with low pressure likely to the South of the deep High pressure to the North of it. This is a classic set up where pressures begin to fall and tropical trouble could occur. June usually begins showing tropical fireworks in the GOM and BOC and July moves the arena a bit further to the East off shore in the Bahamas or along the SE coast. In 2014 Arthur pulled this off, however I'm not convinced that we are going to see such a system. Either way something will try to spin up off the coast and it's worth watching. Nothing much else to watch other than the progression of Tropical waves moving off of Africa adding more moisture into the mix battling the dry Saharan Dust. Note the graphics Dabuh put up showing what is there vs what might be there is you are buying into the EURO solution. Usually the EURO is a top seller and favorable product. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Arthur#/media/File:Arthur_2014_track.png

I'm not buying models just yet.

The GFS went off the rails today in ways.

It's forecasting extreme heat in areas.

Hot on July 4th is logical.

107 degrees for NYC?

Umnnn doubtful.

Imagine tho if the GFS was right...

...and the EURO was wrong.

Oh MY...

Cranky put this up yesterday.

It shows the clash of weather.

The players, the weather makers.

Definitely a spot for battle off the SE Coast.

Meh... 

... maybe.

Strange loop if you wish to click.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

Mixed signals?

Broken models?

Time will tell.

I'm just gonna watch...

..and enjoy the Summer of 2018.

Til things really heat up... 

...late in July and the tropics come alive.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... I want a smoothie!

Smoothies are the shakes of our past.

Wednesday. Tropics Quiet. Texas Dealing With Quite A Lot of Rain From the Tropics. Extreme Early Heat Across Parts of USA. Manatees Swim North to Warm Water Off East Coast

In South Texas they have had torrential rain.

Over a relatively short period of time.

Flooding ensues when that happens.

However it's not a Tropical system.

You can see the RAIN on Spaghetti Models Main Page.

The NHC grid is there too.

No new Tropical Cyclones are expected . . .

Understand Tropical Rain doesn't get a name or a designation and it's covered by the local NWS offices, the local TV stations, online media and you probably have at least two WhatsApp Groups going on talking about the heavy rain and localized flooding from the remnants of X 91L that never developed. The irony is that had it developed into a small Tropical Storm it most likely would have made less of a mess across the wider area. It might have actually moved inland and been caught up by a diving frontal boundary. If.... we had diving frontal boundaries which we do not as we are in the midst of a Heat Wave in parts of the South and along the East Coast. What we have are West bound Tropical Waves and nothing more. Kind of normal for June during the Hurricane Season. The images below with discussion are from the NWS Discussion this morning at 8 AM.

The last wave mentioned has the most discussion. It's a wave and it covers a large area as it is not organized; it's when we talk about a wave axis. Note it extends from Venezuela to the  Mona Passage. Sometimes, but rarely, a part breaks off and that part makes a run at trying to organize. Or a piece of it makes it into another area where development is more favorable. That is what Dabuh talks about on Twitter when he discusses the area near the Mona Passage. 

Satellite image of the large Tropical Wave.

Bottom Right corner....

...is another smaller, intense, W bound wave.

Running Low in the water.

June in the tropics.

NHC weighs in on Texas.

NWS graphics

Note the orange color along the SE coast.

That's the "Heat Wave"

More on that later in this post.

Texas coast lit up with warnings from X91L

"weak trough" "with little effect"

No cold fronts diving down this June.

Extremely warm water along the East Coast.

It's only going to get warmer.

Speaking of warm water.

Manatee spotted at OBX.

When I speak of "warm water" I do so as foreshadowing discussion down the road of Home Grown possibilities either in popping up seemingly out of nowhere or from Tropical Waves that did not develop further out near Africa and traveled to our side of the world where they find welcoming, warm water that if there is no shear there can bring development close in to the coast. A manatee was seen in waters near the Outer Banks and that's rare for June. While they do wander their way North from Florida they usually only go where they can live and that is where the water is warm. If the water pools it's way North they follow the water and strike out for exotic ports of call. Normally this time of year when we go to the Outer Banks I won't even walk in the water up to my ankles as it is ice cold. Being a very warm blooded creature born and raised in Miami I don't swim in the Pacific and I don't dash into the waves at the Outer Banks screaming "it's not that cold!!" so I know what the water is like generally there this time of year. I remember in 2012 we went there for a bit and not only did my husband stay in the water (usually he seems to need to prove it's not that cold in June by jumping in and then coming out fast... he's from upstate New York not Miami)  I actually played in the water thinking how odd it was for the water to be that warm. It was a beastly hot summer in the Carolinas. 2016 was another year with anormaly warm water close in to the coast and often when that happens Manatees travel further North than normal and stay sometimes too long and then hurricanes move close in along those same waters. 

Only showing the storms close in to the East Coast.

2016.

Hermine was a coastal cruiser.

Julie formed so close in...

..she was named over Florida.

Just some things to think about.

A "heat wave" is defined as "a prolonged period of abnormally hot weather" and that's the short definition. Many meteorologists will argue what exactly is or isn't a "heat wave" indefinitely until the said heat wave has dissipated. People do love to talk about the weather. In truth deciding if several days of excessive heat is a "HEAT WAVE" is  like describing an operation. If it's happening to you it's a major operation, if it's happening to someone else it may be a minor operation. If a Heat Wave comes early in the season before it's officially Summer than panic often sets in as people worry this will go on and on through August. Panic leads to rash actions, depression and arguing over topics such as "what is a heat wave" and that's where we are at today in the South.

Note the video from JULY 27th, 2017 that shows how local news outlets cover heat waves. July not June is usually when we see these long spells of "feels like" 104 degrees more so than June.



There was a memorable heat wave in 2012 in our area. I'm finding parallels to 2012 to this year.

https://www.wral.com/weather/story/11267802/

Sometimes Summer comes early followed by an early Fall and Winter lands too soon at people's door that either love the Summer heat or love to complain about how hot it is . . .

If you believe in MJO know that Joe Bastardi is following Dabuh's tropical wave with references to an expected MJO to show up in that area. There is nothing officially happening. Models are hinting at lower pressures near Florida over hot water down the road. All I can say is you have to watch a pattern that produces Home Grown Trouble also known as coastal cruising Hurricanes or Tropical Storms.

My daughter Dina got that shot.

She grabbed my phone and leaned out the window.

Great pic

In 2014 my daughter and I spent the day at the beach in July in New York watching Arthur pass by offshore and shower the area with strong cells that made for great pictures. These storms do sometimes just pop up off shore of Florida and with an absence of stronger steering currents they travel North with the Gulf Stream visiting exotic Northern coastal Ports of Call much like our wayward manatee. Something to think on during these hot Dog Days of June when the heat came on way too soon and the water temperatures off the East Coast are hot to trot so to speak and very inviting for tropical trouble.

So stay tuned. I'll update when there is something to say.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps Will see how hot it really gets today ....In Miami people would be thrilled to have it in the 70s at 9 AM but round these parts the hottest part of the day is late in the day just before Sunset. Yesterday it was 95 degrees at 8 PM and the feels like was closer to 100 degrees.