UPDATED 4PM Friday. New Yellow X EAST of Yucatan. ..91L Gone. NHC Watching Multiple Waves. Convection to the EAST of the Yucatan Still Flaring Up. How Important is ACE? Looking Towards a Hurricane Free Father's Day.

What a tangled web we weave....

...when we blindly follow models.

Old school rule:

Watch flare ups of convection for 48 hours!

Upper Level Low.

Trough nearby.

Where will the moisture go?

Stay tuned.

As I said below (please read if you have not earlier read my thoughts) the models that took the once and future Beryl up towards Texas were off base and not reading the situation perfectly. You can't blame them as every small change in a fluid set up will make the new model output old by the time it predicts a tropical storm or hurricane. Until there is ONE closed, verified center of circulation models are poor at best. Better than nothing as they show us where to look for tropical formation. The GFS and EURO have been taking turns showing tropical storms and hurricanes all month since way before Alberto didn't form the previous area being investigated. This is what happens every June for numerous reasons and a good meteorologist has to use his own instincts and knowledge of climo before jumping into bed with any one model. So what now? We keep watching. That's what we do as we are basically all trackers at heart, tracking tropical weather. Some of us study it, some of us chase it and some of us do both. Some spend hours trying to figure out the models and what they are trying to show. Try watching the satellite loops, close in and then far out... go wide and see the upper level flow and where Upper Level Lows are forming or dying or shuffling about as they move in tandem with the whole atmospheric ballet. Luckily we have so many tools to watch convection in the Caribbean.

Up close. Looking good.

Even visible far away.

The problem is not the models.

The problem is how we interpret them often.

Will 91L come back?

Will NHC go with 92L

If... the convection survives.

Time will tell.....

Enjoy the show ;)

* * *

Despite what you may hear...

Invest 91L is dead.

It does not exist.

NHC shows nothing there.

I woke up late this morning and TWC was showing graphics for the Invest and discussing the rain that would fall from the Invest while the NHC site had already deactivated 91L. Which leads me to believe they are going to just call it 91L forever the way a retired Ambassador is always referred to as Ambassador. Or the segments are simply taped earlier in the morning and played without regard to what is really going on in the same way TWC couldn't go live to a real EF2 Tornado in Wilkes Barre and stayed with an old canned show about Tornado Alley. it's become an odd, sad world when a live station pretends to be live but shows canned segments pretending they are live. I watch TWC, I love the fact that there is a WEATHER channel, but I've gotten tired of seeing the same "live" segment of "how to thunderstorms form" shown every 20 or 30 minutes over a 24 hours period. I kind of like LIVE real NEWS way TWC used to be.  There will be much rain across the SE especially Texas but it is not from 91L. The tag 91L was just the "name" they used to run models for an area of bad weather that may have had potential to turn into a Tropical Depression, Tropical Storm or Hurricane. There is a difference between a tag or hashtag and a designated name. That is one reason the numbers repeat all season and we will see another 91L later in the season most likely. There will be only one Beryl in 2018. If the area to the East of the Yucatan gets tagged down the road or an area near Florida from a dying stalled out frontal boundary is being investigated it will be 92L; it could also be a westbound wave that stayed alive despite traveling west through Saharan Dust.

So what really is happening in the tropics today? Look at the wide view below and I will explain it to you. No hype, just real discussion and the honest bottom line of "keep watching" and "see what evolves" and lastly have a wonderful Happy Father's Day. Even if you are not a Father you have I am sure made a difference in some child's life so celebrate that or the memory of your father or the man in your life who made a big difference be it Uncle, Cousin or Grandfather. I know my brother has made a big difference in both my nephew's life and the lives of my children. And, I had an Uncle who I was as close to growing up in a duplex as I was to my father. Happy Father's Day. Enjoy. There are no hurricanes or tropical systems threatening this weekend.

First you will notice what looks like another batch of color off the EAST side of the Yucatan that is pretty intense this nmorning and even has more of a shape than Alberto had at it's strongest. It's a batch of strong convection in the tropics being watched along with several other features. Many models other than the GFS and EURO showed tropical development near Florida and some even showed part of what was to be tagged 91L moving up into the Eastern GOM. That is not what the NHC went with and that story line died. Luke and Laura are no longer a Super Couple on General Hospital. Duke and Anna are not going to tango onto the screen anytime soon so let's move on and deal with the reality of what is vs what might have been. I still want to see Solo even though I've heard it's a flop. Many tropical waves are nothing more than tropical waves, but if you expected them to become Killer Hurricanes they were indeed flops as far as that went. Thank God for those tropical waves that were flops and not the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane.

 The Hurricane Season is filled with tropical waves every day everywhere in all parts of the basin. The NHC is always watching them but they are covered in discussion vs the graphic map that currently shows no yellow area being watched. It is possible a new yellow area may show up soon or after Father's Day weekend depending on how compelling the wave is and how much model support there is...  No model support is the death knell for a tropical wave unless it makes landfall and gets named Tropical Storm Julia over Florida. Smiling. I can let it go it's just funny in retrospect. And it's true that the general area of tropical showers that brought us 91L is still alive and well it just did not do what the NHC expected it would do.

Loop below:

Feels like Groundhog Day doesn't it?

You will see the area to the East of the Yucatan.

It has remained more or less rooted there.

Being fed as I said the other day...

....from down below.

Moisture coming off of South America.

This will continued to be watched.

The reason "91L" did not develop?

Dry air and strong shear.

You can see that in the image below.

The East side of the Yucatan is a friendlier spot.

Many waves are being watched.

NHC Discussion.

Note mention of the GFS.

Other waves being watched.

4 to be exact.

Dabuh shows one wave.

It's very existence despite SAL is huge.

Orange is moisture.

Blue is not moisture.

Follow the moisture flow.

Despite seasonal SAL...

ITCZ is where it should be for June.

Actually looks more like July than June.

Caribbean as always in June is a hot spot.

ITCZ is alive and well.

Yes MDR may be cooler.

Waves are still there.

This drama plays out every year.

One warning here is to beware the chatter on social media of how dead the 2018 Hurricane Season will be and please ignore the discussion regarding El Nino possibly coming on mid way through the season. Please prepare in case a hurricane does develop and find it's path to your door! Ignore how the cooler water off Africa will lead to lower ACE. Ace is not a measurement of misery from a Category 5 Hurricane slamming into your town and how miserable you will be for weeks and months to come. Hurricane Andrew formed in August in a year with very low ACE and below average tropical numbers.  ACE is an academic term used to measure "energy" from Tropical Storms, Hurricanes etc. When Hurricane Andrew slammed into Homestead we were at record low realms of ACE and then we were face to face with a spinning devil that spun it's way fast across South Florida before moving on to slam into Louisiana. So much for years with low ACE. 

Watch the video below that shows the 1992 Atlantic Hurricane Season. It took several barely there systems before Andrew the first named storm developed in August. Tell someone sitting in Miami with no power for a week in late August that 1992 had been low ACE and that it was a below average season..

Note where it became a hurricane.

We don't need HOT waters off of Africa.

We need to worry about the water close in.

1935 attempt at what it would have looked like below.

Same spot. 

In the years before satellite imagery we may never have noticed Andrew until it popped up in the Bahamas the way the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane suddenly appeared out of seemingly nowhere. Do not buy into chit chat online and click bait designed to make you click onto link after link while marketers try to sell you their merchandise. The animation below is a fake animation I imagine of what the storms would have looked like had we had satellite imagery. Did you know there was a another storm on the map besides the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane? Bet not. Again it formed in waters close in not out by Africa so worry on how warm the waters off of Florida and the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic are rather than worrying on the temperature of the water off of Africa. No it may not be another 2017 or a year like 2005 but it will keep us busy worrying what will and what won't form and more importantly which ones have potential to actually make landfall as a Hurricane.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1935_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Tropical_Storm_Four

No one thinks on ACE when they think back to 1935 or how many other storms there were as it really only took one to change our world forever.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps.... I'll be home in Raleigh enjoying the day and having pulled brisket actually at an event I'm going to. I'll be on Twitter and I'll be checking Spaghetti Models often. My best friend Sharon who may or may not be reading this always says she loves to listen to Mike on Facebook Live and thinks he is a great father to those two adorable girls. I agree. Happy Father's Day. Yeah Mike and his wife took their kids on a trip up the state to see snow when it was falling near the Florida Georgia Line. What a father. Wouldn't YOU want a father like that?  I'll be back with updates as updates are necessary :)