EPAC Special Tropical Statement. Questions on El Nino and Winter of 2019 Abound... Stay Tuned for Surprises! Weather These Days is Like the Stock Market...

Eastern Pacific

January 2019

Putting this into the blog today and talking about it because anything that happens out of the ordinary needs discussing and bears watching. Yes I said bear.. it's kind of an old joke to some of us.. but true. And we are all watching the Stock Market even if we don't have money invested as we all have interests that it could affect down the line. The same with a system like this in that what happens there doesn't remain there it gets caught up in the flow. So yes...there's a circle in the Eastern Pacific and the National Hurricane Center decided to put out a Special Tropical Statement about it in January.

Orange circle up.

Discussion below.

Yes I know it's January.

Yes they start earlier than the Atlantic.

But rarely this early.

But weather happens.

Climate is the long term average.

Out of season development can happen.

Regardless of development....

Gale Force Winds likely over the weekend!

Why do we care?

What begins there....

...often ends up here.

Here being the East Coast.

That flow.... 

The signature of the last month.

Put it in motion:

Moisture caught in the flow...

A pattern seemingly stuck.

But is it?

I've spoken about this with a few of my friends lately in that it seems despite all the headlines and comments made we are in a strange time with mixed signals weather wise. There's a lot of volatility going on both in the market and in the weather world. We had an extremely cold winter like period during the fall in November where we had surprise snow storms in New York and Raleigh got a nice sampling of the winter stuff.... however December rolled in with warmer temperatures (that were forecast) and all we've seen is rain, rain and more rain. Raleigh broke records in 2018 for rainfall totals due to a wet year and two hurricanes that dumped huge amounts of tropical rain on us and now deeper into Winter we have rain from a moist subtropical flow. Where do we go from here? Oklahoma City has had warm temperatures yet they cooled off enough to get snow, freezing rain and sleet yesterday finally. Snow lovers there better be happy. But, the snow is going to melt fast the way it did here in Raleigh as temperatures rose fast into the 60s following the snow. Sound a bit like the stock market?

El Nino is constantly being discussed and I mean constantly on any given day in the weather world. As I have said nonstop here online for old timers no two El Ninos are the same and no two hurricane seasons are the same. The variance in the weather patterns as the Northern Jet hands off to the Southern Jet to where they both meet up for a quick fling and then go back to doing their thing defines what our weather is like on a day to day basis on the East Coast.

Add in a big player that produces gale force winds over the weekend and a big sloppy storm into California and that impacts weather in every city from California to New Jersey down the weather road. The big player that seemingly is in hiding is the flow that dips down from the Arctic and until that sleeping bear wakes up we are in for more wet, wicked, unseasonably warm winter rain patterns. As usual when it's warm here it's cold in Europe and it's snowing in Greece as I type this where my brother lives. Weather in the South Atlantic was so problematic a few days ago they rerouted my other brother's cruise ship to a different port. When we don't have the usual suspects on the weather map we often end up with unusual weather. So keep watching. Make sure those weather apps are activated as I'm getting the sense more and more that we may end up with some surprise weather on the East Coast somewhere. There's also a huge area off the East coast producing high surf in some places. And the beat goes on... 

Personally I agree.

Something bothering me too..

Questions that will get answers soon.

May you have an awesome weekend! Don't believe those constant long term predictions of snow that get pushed off every day to a later date on your weather apps but do believe the weather app when it says tornadoes or severe weather or fog may show up in your designated area in the next six to twelve hours. Pay attention!

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter... follow me there for fast weather updates.

Ps.... a chaser chases and when there is a lack of hurricanes or snow to chase they chase whatever is interesting. Mike chased fog last night on Facebook and his viewers were excited to see him go live. And the fog that was ghost like indeed on the field near where he lives lit up by bright lights was enchanting to watch. Make sure you follow him on Facebook... Lord only knows where that boy will show up when he's reading to chase someone or something or some kind of weather ;)https://www.facebook.com/mikesweatherpage/

Orange Area in the Atlantic 40% Moves Close to Bahamas Later in the Week - Tropics November. Fires Califnoria. El Nino Winning...

This will be a short post as I'm up north in Upstate New York where it snowed briefly today. Not very tropical like... but the Hurricane Season lasts until November 30th so we are still watching the tropics. The NHC has designated an area to be watched for possible development and it is not yet an Invest. So we watch it and it's worth remembering that as fronts are on the move a front is expected to catch this system before it makes landfall. However some effects could be felt if it develops and moves West, especially in the Bahamas and possibly later something for Bermuda to pay attention to...

This is the position of the Low pressure area.

Not the weak stalled out front.

Note more fronts moving South.

It's that time of year.

This is a long range map for this coming week.

At some point tomorrow (Sunday) I'll update the blog and we are all watching the models. But for now it's just an area that can develop and it's within the frame work of past storms that have formed in November. Many form, most are swept out to sea.

Again as I said on Thursday Night with El Nino in play and the current weather pattern we are having Fire Storms in California that are typical during such patterns but this particular fire is devastating and if Fires were rated the way hurricanes would be this would be a Major Hurricane. I lived in LA in the 80s and drove along fires on the side of the highway where the warmth could be felt the fire lit up the sky. Friends lost homes and there was little warning or a chance to prepare the way we do in hurricanes. They are horrible. It may be "fun" and exciting to watch "fire tornadoes" on social media but they are destructive, horrific and something from the devil. Pray for those people and pray they get the fires under control.

Lastly, I complained on the blog on Thursday about the ongoing mess in parts of South Florida especially Broward County though there are problems in other towns within the general region. Let me explain why this bothers me so much. 

One year I walked over to a polling place near my house on Miami Beach and presented by voter card, told them my name and waited for the really sweet gray haired lady to find my ballot so I could vote. It's awesome people give their time to do this, actually my mother did for a while. It was Early Voting and I wanted to get the voting out of the way as I was expecting a baby any day. I sign for the ballot to vote and realized she gave me my brother's ballot. My brother was out of the country and probably would have voted in that election differently from me.. he may have done so absentee. I told her that was my brother, he had a guys name I have a girl's name and I was 9 months pregnant. She asked me .."are you sure?"  Um, yeah... I was sure. The baby kicked as if annoyed as if to say "let's get this show on the road" so she spent a good ten minutes checking with someone and found my ballot. Mind you if I was the devious type I could have taken my brother's ballot, voted for whoever I wanted to be President and then gone down to the other nearby Early Voting location and voted again using my name. No one would have known the difference. The reality that happened was to be bizarre but as I was leaving a guy walked over to me and quietly said "she gave me my father's ballot" which really surprised me. He said..."his father had been dead for 4 years" but apparently no one notified the bureau of elections. I said naively, "wow what did you do?"   He smiled kind of jerky like and said "Oh I voted for my father... figured he'd be happy he still got a vote" and walked away laughing.  No words. Really no words. 

The  next election I was voting in Aventura... I was voting for Kerry to be honest and waiting in line as some man came at me with a sign for the other candidate and asked me if I was voting for Bush I believe... I said "not really" and he got angry and started yelling me in Spanish as I suppose I look Spanish?? and he spoke Spanish and I walked slowly away and he followed me way onto the area where they are not allowed to do that. I mentioned it inside, they said "he had been warned but they don't want to start up with him" and told me they had a problem with another guy pushing people to vote for Kerry. ... It was a zoo, people were afraid to walk into the polling place. When I asked as I was leaving if there was a receipt or something I was told that after the "hanging chad" problem they fixed it so that they can't do a recount and they don't give receipts. Understand you can't walk out of Walmart without showing a receipt but there was no way I could get a receipt and there was no way to recheck the ballots. Seriously? 

Then the next election there were voting inconsistencies in Broward and after much discussion they insisted they would fix the problem and find new ways to make voting easier, faster, safer and get results in a timely fashion. A good 10 years or so down the line we are still dealing with the same problems. That's just wrong. It's not about being a blue voter or a red voter.. it's about the security of each person's vote and those votes being registered in a timely way so as not to make people feel that one party or the other or one candidate or one person is trying to "throw an election" or perhaps just laziness.

My issue is not with Broward County who by the way has one of the better Library Systems in the State but with whoever runs the election process. Broward County is beautiful, it's people are wonderful as people in Miami and Palm Beach but there is an ongoing pattern of having problems and other big cities across the US have far less problems. I hope it's resolved and fixed. It's not about the beaches or the people who live there it's about the people who are put in place to preserve the integrity of our votes. 

So maybe that clears up my thought process. Not sure if the guy went and voted for himself at another polling place or just figured he's let his Dead Dad get a chance to vote. No words. 

I've lived in LA, NYC, Carolina, Minnesota and voted in those places and of course the Miami area and the only place where there has been consistently a problem is in the South Florida area and often Broward "finds ballot bags" or boxes which really is against the laws in place. Perhaps the people need to vote again and they need to hold the results and they need to try and watch the voting process there to get it right this time and in the future. And 12 sides of ballots mostly on referendums is crazy. I lived in NYC and had less pages on my ballot than the most recent ballot in Broward County. Makes for long lines in the hot sun waiting to get in and vote for the person you wish to have as Governor or Senator be a long, exhausting process. I spoke to a few people who told me they had to go home and feed their kids and it was impossible to even finish voting. In 2018 we need to get that better so everyone's vote counts.

So it's an issue that particularly bugs me as if something isn't broken it shouldn't be fixed but if something is broken it needs to be fixed. 

Thanks for reading.

If you live in Florida it doesn't hurt to keep your eyes on the area just in case but most likely you are praying for a cold front. I'll be back in Carolina later this week but the weather will follow me there. Miami will be a welcome burst of warm weather next time I'm in town. I vote in Raleigh these days. 

Sorry for any typos.

My daughter lives out in the country.

Service is weak and I have to sit on one spot on the sofa..

All the way to the left and not move or I lose service :)

Besos Bobbistorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Sneaky African Wave With Yellow Circle as Another Nears South America. A Look Back at Hurricane Audrey and the Rule Breaking Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2017

Yes we are starting off with Africa this morning.

Going to try and keep today's post short and sweet, on the money as they say. There is a yellow circle in the far distant Atlantic off the coast of Africa again in June. This cannot be ignored and not for the reason you would normally think but solely for the reason that it is merely there. There shouldn't be yellow circles off of Africa in normal years in June, but there hasn't been anything normal about 2017 since Arlene formed in the Atlantic in April. And note I said "the Atlantic" vs some swirl in the Gulf of Mexico or off the coast of Florida but out in the Atlantic. Something to think on and discuss in depth after the season is over, however the pattern for an early Atlantic Hurricane Season was set back in April.

So let's look at Africa.

Several waves can be seen.

None dynamic but it's June.

June 2017

And the African Waves have been sneaky this year.

They are low this time of year.

That's within the framework of Climo.

Hurricane History since time began.

Early season waves tend to come off Africa at a lower latitude and that low ride hurts them as they have to lift a bit for them to really spin up as too close to the Equator you run into the dead zone for tropical formation. Bret was a rare spinner that low down close to the no go zone, however will more follow Bret this year that is the question. It's a two step dance, one part is staying away from the high dry air that sucks the energy out of fledgling tropical systems. On the other hand they can't go too far South or they lose their mojo. There's a thin line for development and it helps to have a wave with a lot of potential and not sure this wave has all that much potential. 

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitE/movies/splitE5.html  SAL loop.

A while back a beautiful wave came off of Africa, but it was ignored. No yellow circle and yet it's on it's way to Trinidad and Tobago. You can see this wave flaring up on satellite imagery below. Nice little compact, red circle in a pocket of moisture. Riding low as another wave comes off of Africa. And note there are numerous waves coming off of Africa as the ITCZ has stayed moist this year South of the region where SAL dominates in June and July. You can also see a front draped across the Northern part of the Sunshine State. Many have said this morning in NY feels like September not June. Get over it, it's an illusion and summer heat will return soon. But it's interesting to watch as the season unfolds as this season's tropical waves don't always follow the rules.

You can see this low riding wave below.

Looks like a bright, white mole moving West on the loop above.

You can also see a small cyclone named Dora in the Epac.

Small, quick lived fast moving Dora.

Hurricane Dora formed an eye.

And the eye opened up wide.

Dora moved West towards cooler water.

No shear but maybe the eye was too big?

Seriously it's now been downgraded.

Maybe it's the name.

Dora 2011 had a huge eye too.

However 2011 Dora was a strong, big Hurricane.

Both had huge eyes.

25 to 30 miles wide in 2017

While June is usually a good deal for cruises in the Caribbean it's usually unfriendly for tropical systems as the pieces of the puzzle fall into place a bit later in the season. You can see how unfriendly it is and yet we have a yellow circle with 20% chances in the 5 day and that's interesting. Interesting for how it may relate to later in July and August before we even get to Remember September. 

Look at all those waves swimming West.

Moisture in the Caribbean in June.

Fronts dangling across Florida.

Warm waters in the GOM and the Bahamas.

Epac squeezed out a small storm nothing more.

The signs point for this to be an above average year.

Where the hurricanes go is the question.

Northern Hemisphere.

Small pretty cyclonic signature in EPAC

And lots of moisture to work with for waves.

And no El Nino.

Waves lined up in the Atlantic.

Purple circles in the Atlantic.

Yellow 20% CV Waves.

Stay tuned....

....connect the dots!

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Follow me on Twitter for faster updates in real time.

Ps... Anniversary of Hurricane Audrey.

This old image was once new and amazing.

Audrey a rare June Hurricane.

A good look back is below.

.

http://www.alabamawx.com/?p=31159

Start of Hurricane Season. Predicting a Busy Season With Possible Landfalls to US so PREPARE NOW!

State of the tropics above.

Quiet and nothing happening.

Now is the time to prepare.

Get a plan. Buy stuff.

Everyone has different needs.

Medication vs extra diapers?

Beer vs Soda

Pet food?

How much water do we really need...

Unlike the baseball season there is no first pitch thrown out by the President, although the NHC regularly makes a pitch to the President for more money for the NHC. Money is key to research and better forecasting so we don't have to be reliant on the EURO model that currently is the Top Gun in forecasting leaving the American GFS model in the dust often. Sad, but true. I think they should give the NHC more money and help make the GFS GREAT AGAIN!

There is some chatter about a system in the Epac crossing over into the GOM and having some tropical possibilities down the road. I'm not a big believer in the crossover predictions as much as the possibility of moisture hanging out at the tail end of a cold front lingering too long over warm water near Florida. Happens and is more likely than crazy crossover scenarios though to be honest sometimes they do happen. So stay tuned.

http://www.publix.com/pages/publix-storm-basics

The link above is about as good as it gets to learn how to prepare for a Hurricane should you be new to South Florida and really who isn't? It's a state where locals often leave in search of cooler pastures and others move South for the warmth, jobs and a tropical lifestyle. Obviously part of a tropical lifestyle is the danger of tropical storms and hurricanes coming to visit when you weren't expecting them. So, read and take action by making a plan. Making a list of things necessary to you such as having an extra asthma inhaler or extra diapers in case Publix loses power... or it's roof and there is no new truck coming in with your favorite diapers. Happens.

I'm in Miami currently for a Jewish Holiday named Shavous and I'll be at my best friend's house (let's call her Magda to protect the innocent and make the guilty laugh) and we will be sipping red wine and nibbling on chocolate cheesecake for the duration of the holiday. Her birthday is June 1st and she is definitely a Category 3 or 4 Hurricane. There may be other food and activity involved but I'll be celebrating the start of the season and her birthday down here in Miami. See the picture below.. isn't she adorable? She's the blonde...obviously!

She makes me smile...or giggle or a little of both!

Thank God for best friends.........

Older picture above but you get the idea.

A close friend used to just call us both "trouble" 

And yeah...she's born on June 1st...

Duh...

Bobbistorm's Bottom Line on this Hurricane Season is expect a Hurricane to make landfall in the US and if we get lucky and it misses us thank your lucky stars! 

The water is hot, the air temperature is record breaking and that only heats up the waters near the coastline. Shear will lessen and Saharan Dust may not be able to save us as time goes by. Oh and El Nino is not currently predicted to pose a danger to tropical waves forming into Hurricanes this year!! The high temperature in Miami the other day beat the record for 1996 by five degrees. 1996 was a busy year for hurricanes. Every year is different. It's like picking a card out of a deck to see what you get when it comes to any one hurricane season. But I think it's safe to predict we have lots of trouble on the tropical horizon this year!!!

Get a plan, buy "stuff" and be prepared because by the time you get to Publix the water, soda and beer will all be gone.......... because the old timers here know when to go shopping.

Besos BobbiStorm

Follow me on Twitter @bobbistorm

Superman can't save you from a Hurricane! Only YOU can prepare and make a plan before the Hurricanes comes to call. It's your call.....

Don't say I didn't warn ya!!

Read previous posts for my forecasts and predictions.

And the list from A - Z on how you know a Hurricane is coming.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2017/05/hurricane-warnings-how-do-you-know.html

Ps ...IF anything forms before Thursday Night...

www.spaghettimodels.com

www.hurricanecity.com

They will have all the details you need!

Welcome to the Atlantic Hurricane Season!

Spring Flooding, Severe Weather & Speculation on El Nino VS La Nina - Tornadoes Possible Today

I could pretty much say "Nuff Said"

Fronts moving West to East across the nation are not a stimulus for tropical development. Sometimes, an early season storm forms at the tail end of a cold front. Not the current front that faded away just before making it to Miami, but the one behind it might be worth watching as it gets further South than the last. We are on a roller coaster still with cold fronts, a carousel in the atmosphere pulling each up and down over and over. Tornadoes are possible today in several places.

http://www.weather.gov/

Put your Zipcode in and find your weather.

Spring Flooding is still the main news with concerns for more severe weather that is typical this time of year as warm air from the GOM slams into fast moving cold fronts. The big question is if the fronts are moving fast or if they slow down enough to mitigate potential problems. This is Spring still and every year this time of year people begin to look to see if there is an El Nino or no Nino or maybe even a La Nina. I'm not sure what it is, perhaps the sexy name, but it captivates bored tropical meteorologists into waxing poetic online about possibilities that are too far out to be certain. Note if TIME magazine has not put El Nino on the cover of their current issue it's probably not a huge issue and something meteorologists can argue over endlessly while throwing darts at empty hurricane tracking maps. Don't kid yourself... hardcore addicts still have hurricane tracking maps. They may not admit it in public, but in private they show them off comparing size, type and quality as if they are.... baseball cards and autographed bats. That said I have a magnetic one, a cork board one and some have much bigger shinier ones than me. 

An interesting article about La Nina:

http://www.weathernationtv.com/news/la-nina-blame-active-tornado-season/

Note when there is no hurricane to follow we enter into obsession and speculation on El Nino and La Nina.

Good discussion online.

We wait and watch.

Well I do.

And I'm still watching the EPAC.

Convection should eventually congeal into something.

Look at that huge complex over S America.

Bullseye over Lake Maracaibo

https://www.rt.com/viral/343819-lightning-capital-world-venezuela/

You thought it was Tampa Bay?

That moisture works it's way N into the Caribbean.

Or more often in May and June into EPAC.

Keep watching.

Add in snow melt and spring floods this month.

There's a lot going on even if there are no hurricanes.

Dust off those hurricanes maps hidden in the closet.

Check out those generators.

Start planning for 2017 Hurricane Season.

Bret will show up eventually.

BOC?

Subtropical Atlantic Storm?

GOM?

Keep reading... 

..and watching those loops.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter. Add me, tweet me your thoughts.

Ps Hey we all have addictions. 

Mine is weather.... 

;)

Not the song I wanted but close enough...

Gulf Coast Weather Moving North Towards Mid West. California Fire Hose Stuck ON. What Does This Mean? El Nino? Hurricane Season?

Quiet today and then the weather comes back again.

An ongoing Seesaw pattern this winter.

I have a few things to say about the weather over the next few days and yet it is basically more of the same. Note the maps above and you see this ongoing busy, crazy, stormy weather and then quiet unseasonably warm across a good part of the country and then it's calm again. And, after discussing US weather trends I will give an honorable mention to the tropics at the end of this post.

Some Gulf Coast action as well as...

...the atmospheric river that's out of control in California.

Otherwise it's a quiet day today.

I want to show several shades of the same system here.

Note the Low winding up, funneling GOM moisture North.

It almost looks like a five year old tried to draw a hurricane symbol.

In the Louisiana, Mississippi area there is weather.

Following the water vapor loop above it moves North.

Up the mid section of the country.

When you have that much warm moisture moving North...

...it will eventually hit colder air and that collision brings severe weather.

Not so stormy today but stormier in a few days.

You can see this atmospheric ballet below.

Also note a lot of weather around Florida.

Dave Schwartz used to say the flip side of air moving down fast...

...was it forces air to move up on the other side.

He loved showing long loops where this played out on air

Know it's there... 

And know the river of misery in California continues.

That fire hose set up aimed at the West Coast ....

...is stuck in the on position.

I lived in LA. 

People lie it does rain.

But it doesn't pour often.

Northern California is beautiful but not used to deluges of rain.

Above you can see the systems lining up to land at LAX soon.

As for the tropics in February my favorite color popped up today.

Hmnnn. 

And it hasn't gone unnoticed. 

It's not a named tropical storm forming

It's a Gale of sorts.  Stormy weather.

We watch patterns, however patterns aren't always facts.

But they are always worth watching.

And something tropical is always forming somewhere.

But even that region of the world is producing low numbers.

Note a lot of people are discussing what the rains in California mean. There's been a lot of discussion on whether we are headed into a strong El Nino or a neutral year or a weak El Nino Year. As far as I'm concerned it's too soon to tell. It's been an extremely awkward year in many ways with mixed signals and I believe this will continue for sometime. I read in one post from a good meteorologist that this flooding in LA and California was the worst since 1995 and 2004 and if that is true it makes you wonder as many are saying this is El Nino related. Note the hurricane seasons of 1995 and 2004 were epic and not what we would consider your usual low numbers in the Atlantic. So facts can be twisted, patterns can be misunderstood and when Mother Nature seems out of whack it's best to stand back and watch it play out before making big conclusions about the future.

If I was a weather doctor I'd suggest Mother Nature take some meds because she's been a bit Bi Polar these days and even a bit Manic. Happens, it's not the end of the world, but she might want to take some Passion Flower Tea or whatever it is that is popular these days to pop to chill out a bit. Whole Foods sells "Happy Camper" Mother Nature might want to check it out.

Just saying.

Maybe sprinkle some in the Pacific for California's sake.

Stay tuned.

Keep appreciating the weather.

If you don't like it... it changes every day ;)

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps Note there is a season to every season.

Some years it all comes at once every other week.

This has been that sort of winter.

December Weather. Everyone Mum on El Nino. Shhhh Let It Play Out in Real Time. Holiday Forecast... Sugar!

A tale of two worlds.

Tropical Weather down in Central America.

Winter reinforcing it's grip on the US.

Nothing unusual about that.

And that perhaps IS the news.

This year is not forecast to be like last year.

After months of arguing on El Nino everyone is quiet.

They are quiet as they are holding their breath.

Waiting to see if this is a Neutral Year...

...or an El Nino year arriving late.

Late as in time for Valentines Day!

A simple search of Tweets brings up this:

Also a lot of holiday displays . . .

There is one thing I can predict 100%

First week in January EVERYONE is dieting!

The second half of December is laden with holidays.

Jews end December with a late season Chanukah.

You don't have to be Jewish to like Potato Latkes...

Then there is Christmas on Sunday this year.

Monday being a holiday as well for most.

Long 3 Day Weekend.

Many people will want to travel.

I'll update on the travel forecast as we get closer.

Goes without saying if you be traveling...

...stay in touch with your airlines or check road conditions.

You may taking a vacation but Mother Nature is NOT!

Stay informed!

Whether you will be eating Fruit Cake

Or Jelly Donuts for Chanukah...

I predict Sugar will make a come back the last week in December ;)

You will be dieting come January 2nd!

No matter what the weather.... 

...you will be dieting ;)

Besos BobbiStorm

Ps on a quiet day in weather I'm shopping for presents.

Wish I could send everyone health, happiness and wealth this year!

Either way... be happy today!