A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Monday, December 24, 2018
Snow.... White Christmas. Music. Memories.Who Wants Snow? I do.... Who is getting it? Not me ... Maybe You?
If you are here for the weather.........
.... this says it all.
Nothing in the tropics.
No December hurricanes.
Not much snow either but ...
...graphics above show where the snow will be..
And a special Merry Christmas to Mike.
Good guy... good friend... food father/husband.
He knows how to enjoy life.
Good for him!
The rest of this will discuss snow.
Or more specifically who gets a White Christmas..
..or who does not.
And why do we want one so badly...??
I bet you get cards like this still...
...or you see them in Hallmark Stores.
Hallmark Stores in the Carolinas are the size of...
...small Walmarts. Honest.
Or scenes like this dance in your brain...
And it bubbles up from deep down inside....
"I want snow for Christmas"
"Just like the ones I used to know.."
You can blame it on Irving Berlin...
...or Bing Crosby and Danny Kaye.
The power of music is amazing in that it conjures up memories that sometimes you never actually ever had happen and yet the songs you love can convince you otherwise. Take White Christmas for instance? It's one of those Christmas songs we love since our childhood. It was written by Irving Berlin who was born Yisroel which translates into English as Israel. He was born in Russia so he probably did have a snow for months out of the year as the region where he was born was practically Siberia. Yet he writes he's dreaming of a White Christmas with all the details as if he was born and raised in Maine or Montana, his creativity flowing fast and beautiful into an iconic song we all love. Somehow I feel deprived in North Carolina if I don't get a White Christmas just like the ones I used to know. Reality check here... I grew up in Miami and I'm Jewish and my mother didn't allow no Christmas Tree in our house even if some called it a Holiday Bush and we didn't get no snow either unless it came out of spray can you spray on the windows to make them look frosty; she didn't allow that either but the stores in downtown Miami did that often. I grew up in a Miami Vice Art Deco colored world with twinkling lights wrapped around palm trees and yet in my mind I grew up with an Irving Berlin White Christmas.
Music does that to us really. It takes us places we have never been and we feel we have been there as we have listened to the songs for hours on end. I feel like I've been to South America because I'v watched Madonna dance in Evita so many times.
I've never been there....
...but I've danced to this tune for years.
Stand back.... whatcha gonna get in me?
Not your usual weather blog.
I can't deliver snow to those who want it...
...or transport those who don't want it to Miami.
Today I'm in a Miami Beach mood.
Maybe I should have gone....
.... maybe I should go to Myrtle Beach.
Both MB....
Hmnnnn.....
If you want snow...
Go North
My brother is gonna be in Rio.
Long story.
I'm very happy for him.
Life is short.
Gotta get out there and enjoy it.
He's my youngest brother...
...if not now when?
!!
Nice pic from the Catskills.
My husband is from North of there.
Looks normal to him I supposed.
He took skis to high school...
...so he could ski after school.
Definitely not Florida.
Thanking Allan for the retweet.
Really I want to be in Seattle...
...but it's expensive to go.
And such a long trip.
You gotta stay a while when you go.
I did go to LA once for a fast weekend.
It was Oscar Weekend.
Nice trip.
Great trip :)
So what are your memories?
Did you really experience them?
Or are they merely a musical memory?
I didn't have a fireplace growing up ....
I had one in Long Beach California.
I'd sit and listen to old love songs.
Stare into the fire and remember.
Music..... gotta love it.
In ways maybe we should hate it.
Love hate thing ya know...
But it is what it is......it's music!
My husband loves Oldie Goldie songs, he is one of those people who doesn't keep up with current music and though he knows who sang "all about the base" he doesn't remember she also sang "Dear Future Husband" so he thinks she was a one hit wonder.... I told him she was not. He did take me to see Evita on stage in Durham one year for a present so we will forgive him for being stuck in the late 1970s and not understanding why I love Country Music because he puts it on the car for me even though I know he doesn't get what the big deal is... but he's a Yankee. To be honest before his family came over from Bialystock and became anarchists and vegetarians (he converted to meat in his 20s) and went upstate New York and opened a hotel his ancestors probably knew snow well but he was raised "Up North" as my Mother would say and has a Yankee perspective and he's a Baby Boomer so they just rock on forever stuck in the 1970s. I prefer not listening to 1970s music and yet I can watch "White Christmas" forever and ever.
My mother had a sign in her bedroom pasted onto her wall near her desk and it said "Music has no age it is timeless" and she told me once while dancing that music was the love of her life and added music will never disappoint you. She was an opera singer when young and she sang a lot of Big Band music and danced with soldiers... some she loved and one I know she loved more than the others as they shared the love of music. My father liked Willie Nelson and Ann Miller and well.... life went on and he was good to her. His motto was basically if she was happy we were all happy; so true, smart Daddy.
So here we are.... it's gonna be a wet, wet Christmas for most of the people in the lower 48 and especially in the Deep South and whether you are Jewish or Christian or Baptist or Episcopalian or even an Atheist (God Forbid..) if you are dreaming of a White Christmas you should have gone to Asheville! Laughing.... or chuckling or giggling. I love the holidays and the fact that our emphasis tends to be on good cheer, presents, love and salvation and a better place or the promise of a better place where it snows on Christmas and then the snow melts fast and doesn't turn dark or get dirty like it does in NYC but they never show it in the movies and you can run between the raindrops in a sappy commercial and never actually get wet and you can eat a chocolate a day for at least the next 150 plus days.
To all those I love and there are many... all sides and faces of them .... to those who have put up with me, loved me, adored me, stolen words I said and put them into works of art (you know who you are) and to those who thought we were merely ships passing in the night in high school or on AOL.... I still love ya....still crazy after all these years.
May you have the weather you want and if you don't want it... figure out a way to love it and when you have the chance go to where the weather you love and party like it's 2019!
I'm going shopping... oddly that is how I connect. I wander through the mall and look at decorations and listen to music and buy marked down presents for my kids, my grandkids and my friends and maybe just something for me. I have some Chanukah gift cards still and a few birthday present cards from DressBarn and Victoria's Secrets as my birthday is December 30th so I am in a holiday... birthday state of mind. And, hope to watch White Christmas some time soon. When I was young in Drama my best friend Linda and I did an onstage dance routine to this song and she died when I was very young but as my mother said music has no age and is forever. She's with me always... if only in my dreams. Oh... I had odd dreams last night and no Linda was not in them. Hmnnn
Just being me... anyone send me pics of snow you are enjoying I'll post them ;)
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps...Sorry for the run on rambling blog today but who really reads it deep in December? And.. I needed to write.... did you really think I was gonna put up a Carpenters Song or "buttercup" or Herman's Hermits? Nah........... nope............ but those songs are with me forever and luckily I wasn't killed in that road trip on Biscayne Blvd while trying to remember the name of that stupid song... rolling eyes.
This is who I am.... my Twitter feed is almost all filled with winter weather notifications and a few geological ones thrown in peppered with some politics and a few Chanukah menorahs along the way. I do weather, a lot of weather and now that I live in the Carolinas I do winter weather or more so I spend most of my time wishing on winter weather. I wear a snowflake charm or a bracelet with white snowflakes as if somehow that will insure me of at least some of the white stuff falling in North Carolina this winter.
Chanukah comes early this year and as so often happens when that happens it seems winter also comes early. The Jewish calendar is based on the moon and the civil dates differ from year to year greatly, over time I've noticed often in years when holidays come early so does the winter weather. This is not a science anymore than me wanting to believe if I wear a snowflake it will snow soon ;) But well... it seems to be working and if you don't believe me look at my 7 day weather forecast! Those are snowflakes for the weekend!
I'm in Raleigh this Chanukah, not sunny bright hot Miami and not Crown Heights which is lit up with menorahs and Chanukah decorations everywhere but in the Carolinas where Chanukah sometimes is harder to see. In Miami the Miami Herald newspaper runs a banner on the top of the page on the days of Chanukah, in Raleigh there was no real mention this morning in the News and Observer newspaper that Chanukah started but imagine eventually it will show up... like the snow... eventually. Spectrum News did nice coverage though as they do of weather and other local news.
Truth is I love 'holiday time" and as I grew up when little in a not very Jewish area all my friends had beautiful trees each decorated differently and every family would invite me over to help decorate as they knew we didn't do Christmas. So basically I got to throw tinsel on everyone's tree... I grew up Down South where tinsel is like glitter ... it just isn't a party without some glitter or tinsel on the decorations. Go figure they were a bit envious that I got presents for 8 nights and would come over sometimes to play with my dreidels and liked the menorah my parents lit in the window every night of Chanukah. I like Raleigh, it's a nice place where people are warm, friendly and say things like "have a blessed day" and when they do I smile because how awesome is it to live somewhere where people take saying "have a blessed day" as important as "take care now" or "gotta go"...
Winter came early this year with subfreezing temperatures for a few days and then as always it warmed up to near 70 degrees last night and soon it will plunge back again into the 30s at night. So basically I can wear sandals and boots and live in leggings most of the winter. I love Miami and I often talk on how beautiful the decorations are and being in Key West for the holidays is awesome but more and more the allure and the charm of Carolina during the Holidays does me in. Rarely do I end a sentence purposely with a preposition but it's the only way to say it and really explain the beauty of the Carolinas. I also love wearing leggings ;)
Winter may or may not make a snowy appearance in parts of the South this week and when I say "this week" I mean the "end of the week" and more like the weekend. Amazingly the same system that may bring Oklahoma City snow also aims at the Carolinas and the rest of the South. I'm hoping and if snow falls here you'll know my prayers were answered along with good health for everyone, happiness and just keep on stimulating the economy within reason this shopping season as you buy presents for Chanukah or pile up the presents under the tree. Years back when I was raising all the kids I'd hide their presents in my best friend's closet and she'd do the same with her presents in mine. After a while this became an easy way of hiding anything big I'd want to surprise anyone with as I'd just say "oh those are Sharon's she's hiding them from her kids" and believe it or not... it worked! Love her, she's in Florida with her many grandchildren and children missing me but happy I'm here. She always said it's perfect that "the girl who read Southern Living" ended up in the South. She's a Yankee... she never got the me buying Southern Living Magazine in Miami :) Nice recipe in this month's magazine for "Root Vegetable Fritters" aka Latkes. https://www.southernliving.com/recipes/root-vegetable-fritters
I'll update later in the week as the forecast becomes more defined. Currently I hit my weather app every few hours to see if they took my snowflakes for Saturday and Sunday away or put a few more back in.... this far out it's like doing the hokey pokey a lot of fun but when others see you doing it they make fun. Sometimes in Raleigh the closest I get to snow flakes is the snow flakes on the long term part of the ten day forecast on my weather app.
My son is a Jewish Music Producer and he lives and breathes music and art as he has an abundance of artsy genes from both sides of the family tree. He sent me this link to the most magical music video. You don't need to understand hebrew to understand the message here. He is one of the best new singers in the Jewish Market and each song and each video illuminates the beauty in his voice and in his message. Watch the story unfold and feel the beauty of the story being told.
Chanukah is a holiday that speaks of courage and faith and miracles. As a child growing up it's hard to understand the whole "they found this little bit of olive oil" but we all loved hearing the story. The Meme on Facebook this week really does tell the story.
Now that puts Chanukah into a perspective we all can understand better. As for me our house is scented with olive oil as I fry various fritters and make Southern Fried Chicken on Chanukah and well ... we can diet next week. Oh and donuts are on the menu plan for lunch as a place in downtown Raleigh that makes coffee is making kosher donuts* this year as we have a new Rabbi and Rebbetzin in town working with Young Professionals in Downtown Raleigh... a beautiful couple and amazingly the granddaughter of a good friend of mine... if that doesn't make me feel old what will? But her grandmother helped bring my family closer to Chabad and was a role model when I was young so wow indeed. And my son works with her cousin Benny Friedman... small world getting smaller all the time. Fill it with joy and winter weather and I'll be a happy camper. *only the donuts are kosher but hey it's a start!
Happy Chanukah!!
Gotta Love December!!
Okay...it's my birthday month too!
Ps I remember when they were looking for candles for this video :) yeah, I'm proud and more so the song has been stuck in my head all morning... so light TWO candles tonight on the Menorah!
2018 Earthquake.. 7.0 Alaska - Storms in the South - Wicked Weather & Winter Here to Stay as the Hurricane Season Slips Away.
Today I was planning on writing a blog on the end of the 2018 Hurricane Season but life as it is ...is always happening and one news story replaces another as soon as we find out that there was a 7.0 earthquake in Alaska that caused cracks on huge highways and there is currently a tsunami alert for one area though there is a concern in other areas nearby.
This video shows what happens in the aftermath of such an earthquake when you find a safe space (under a desk is good) and you try to call or text your loved ones to let them know you are safe but scared. As I type this the tsunami alert has been dropped which is good news, however news has come out there there are fires (gas lines break) and the infrastructure is messed up making it hard to even drive home as roads have collapsed or have huge cracks in them. When I lived in LA for years in the 1980s my biggest fear of "the big one" was how I'd get home to my kids and family as I worked close to downtown in the Wilshire District. A relatively short drive on a regular day would be horrendous if the Big One LA is always waiting for happened.
Nothing illustrates how Mother Nature makes news more relevant than a 7.0 Earthquake that will most likely be knocked down to six point something but I'm going with the 7.0 as that is likely how it was originally rated. We can go back and review things after all is said and done and the actual facts come to the surface. For now prayers go out to people there and hoping there were no deaths but we won't know for some time. That region has earthquake drills and they build homes to withstand earthquakes however depending on the soil the homes are built on damage varies. Hard rock doesn't move as much as area where the ground has either been filled in or is closer to river basin ... each area feels the quake differently. When ever I hear about earthquakes and Alaska I remember as a small girl they broke into the news to talk about the 1964 earthquake and tsunami. It seemed so much bigger than life, bigger than hurricanes that I was used to and yet so far away. Still I stood mesmerized as they received video of the area and I remember thinking then and I still think that way now ... I'd rather have a hurricane if you have to have a "natural disaster" as you can prepare for them, hunker down or flee to safety yet when the ground shakes, rattles and rolls you have to roll with the situation and try to remember what you have learned during Earthquake Safety Drills.
This is a smaller earthquake but strong enough to knock ongoing politics off the air and have all three major cable channels go to live coverage. I preferred when news stations covered news vs politics all day long and generally I love politics but it's one reason I leave TWC on while working in the house. The Weather Channel broke in with news of the Earthquake. In college in journalism class you had to rate stories as to which ones were more relevant to cover or for a headline. The Hurricane Season of 2018 is in the books and despite all the early dramatic discussion on how mild and weak it would be because of a cool pool of water in the Mid Atlantic ... Mother Nature as always finds a way. Florence found her way across the Atlantic despite dramatic headlines writing her off as a "Fish Storm" and Michael formed and continued to march towards the Gulf Coast as models said he would though many didn't believe it would actually be that bad. Spoiler alert as we know.... it was that bad and worse. Pictures don't do it justice and I may write about that on Sunday but I'm limited on time today. What I was going to say today was that the part of the country that is used to having Spring Tornado Outbreaks was deprived of their season this Spring as tornadoes continued to show up at high latitudes and the Plains were quiet. Now the Plains are busy in the Fall as warm, moist weather from the Gulf of Mexico is racing up towards the Southern Jet enhanced by El Nino creating a clash of the seasons.
Put this in motion and the convection in the GOM...
Watch in real time as they meet up.
It's not going to be pretty.
You can see this on the loop below.
It's a forecast loop.
Winter is on the move.
Models spit out winter storms....
...then models moderate that forecast.
Winter is here to stay.
This pattern will repeat all year.
Storm, snow or rain, then warms up...
...then a new storm system moves in.
Sometimes the Polar Vortex gets a vote.
In my part of the world I'm cooking.
I baked challah for Shabbos. I decorated the house for Chanukah.
I'm watching very long range models...
..and reacting with enough salt to eat pretzels.
In the same way that after shocks will continue...
...fronts will continue.
Winter will continue.
We may be still playing football....
...but it feels like we should be making snow angels.
Stay safe....
...have a wonderful weekend.
Yeah.... I'll take a hurricane anyday.
But you can't always get what you wish for...
...doesn't mean you can't keep wishing.
I'm wishing for Snow...
Just a little snow on chanukah and I'll smile.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps... For some friends who love Carole King
Sorry for any typos... small cut on finger from cooking.
Well from cutting a log of frozen gefilte fish in half..
I'm good, just bandaid makes typing difficult :(
Winter Solstice... Are You Traveling for the Holidays? Snow Wishes and Rainy Kisses
It's cold and rainy in Raleigh.
Not freezing but getting colder.
Seems the Christmas Weekend forecast is an ever moving target in parts of the country. And what happens in one part of the country can affect others not really living there. Let's say for instance you are leaving LA to fly to see your parents in NYC and you have your typical non-stop inexpensive flight that makes a stop in Chicago. Your trip may be severely impacted by wintry weather in the Chicago area. Let's say you are driving from Miami to NYC to see your parents and your sister flying in from LA for a family reunion for the holidays. You may have a long, messy drive up I95 and when you get there you can flip a coin whether the forecast will verify or not. Then there's areas West of the Appalachian mountains that may get crappy weather that could bring snow or just bring more frigid rain so transferring in Atlanta or Charlotte to that family reunion in NYC may put you in shared misery with the sister flying in from LA. Why doesn't anyone stay in one place anymore???
Your Aunt Martha who doesn't like to fly may be nervous about taking Amtrak into Penn Station even though she's thrilled she's not going to get stuck on an airplane in Atlanta because there was or wasn't a fire that turned the power out.
Does anyone really want to travel in this age of virtual reality when we can all do Facetime while opening our presents without battling the elements or the thought of flying, driving or taking the train. Makes you wonder when Amazon or Google are going to come up with that transporter they used on Star Trek. Pretty sure a lot of people would prefer taking their chances with that then traveling this holiday weekend.
Have you ever noticed they make everything these days into an ornament? But, I'm digressing.
The forecast for Christmas weekend has changed so often that I really don't want to put my thoughts onto the blog here just yet.
The freeze line is staying near the Virginia border as they seem to be hogging Jack Frost and holding him hostage. People in North Carolina don't want freezing weather, however they do want snow. Kind of hard to get snow when the temperatures are in the low 50s at Noon. Unless cold wet air moves down this way we will continue wishing on snow and being wet as we take our morning run.
Rain remains in the SE
Note Great Lakes = winter weather (duh)
Wyoming.... well it's Wyoming.
If you live in the SW...
...stay there ;)
TWC is doing cat photo contests. I'm not a cat hater. I like cats. But obviously there is a lack of weather to talk about.. if they are doing pet picture contests.
Michael Ventrice puts it well.
And Accuweather....
...well they don't have much to talk about.
Snow in the Great Lakes is par for the course.
Hope springs eternal.
Keep hoping.
Tomorrow is the Winter Solstice.
Yes, winter begins tomorrow.
Officially!!
It's like this... I grew up in South Florida. As a young adult I lived in LA. I'm kind of used to there not being snow during the holidays. Bright neon lights strung up in palm trees while sun baked, brightly burned tourists wandered around town smelling of either Novacaine or sun tan oil. Winter meant the invasion of the NY tourists (snow birds) and hurricane season was far away. We stayed inside in our beds late at night with the AC on high while getting in the mood by watching White Christmas late at night on whichever channel was showing it. If Old Man Winter wants to be a kill joy and keep all the snow in Alaska this year (and the Great Lakes) then... life will go on. Make a Margarita, put on a Jimmy Buffet CD and deal with it!
Snow Wishes Want Snow for Holidays.... Enjoy the Sunshine. Long Range 10 Day Forecasts IFFY ..Someone Gets SNOW
It's beginning to look a lot like that time of year when people try to calculate their odds of seeing a White Christmas. Cold fronts have wandered into the Deep South and it's snowing in Brooklyn. That only means one thing. Those who wake up Christmas morning to no snow are going to feel cheated as it feels a lot like Old Saint Nick has taken up residence in the US this year.
Mike is covering Santa.
I'm shaking the snow globe in NC.
We all be watching the loops.
Wondering on the models.
People are arguing online...
Others are smiling at long range forecasts.
10 days away.
Let me explain it like this. Ten days away is . . . well 10 days away. Yet hope springs eternal even if you live in places where snow rarely falls. Meteorologists grapple with a 3 day forecast yet some dabble at making accurate long term forecasts. Every weather weenie around the world wants to argue what the GFS and the EURO are showing about flakes falling from the sky as hurricanes are long since forgotten. Different weather yet the same argument; we are a weather world divided. The arguing goes on as do the long range projections. In truth... it's just too soon to tell. So I suggest people take it one day at a time and continue shopping for your friends, family and yourself while deals are more reliable than long term forecasts.
It obviously brings out the crazies.
The fakes and pretenders.
Promises of snow...
...naysayers singing let it rain!!
What is Christmas with no snow?
It's every Christmas in Miami . . .
What do people do in Miami and LA?
They bring in snow or pretend ;)
To be honest I'm not very hung up on the snow issue just yet. I will get there (trust me) but for now I'm enjoying the day to day of Chanukah and experimenting with just what keeps me warm. I've made potato latkes and last night we had Lamb Burgers and onion rings. Pretty sure I'm making Southern Fried Chicken tonight. With so many things to do I'm not going to dive just yet into the Great Snow Debate ;) But I will be posting in a few days on the whispers of a storm system in about 10 days that may bring various types of winter P types (that means snow/sleet/iced it's a code word mets use for possible snow) ...
We be doing Chanukah in our house. Enjoy this video from the sons of one my best friends years back and one of them recently sung at my grandson's Bar Mitzvah. My life has a way of weaving itself back and forth in and out as the past doubles over with blessings in the present and who knows what tomorrow will bring.
Updated. Major Hurricane Maria and Puerto Rico... Then Where Does Maria Go NEXT WEEK... Jose Looping.. Lee Out There Somewhere
A look at Cat 5 Maria
You rarely see a hurricane such as this one.
This year oddly we have had several.
I will be offline until Saturday Night for the Jewish High Holidays and the Jewish Sabbath which is over on Saturday at sundown. I'm not 100% sold on any one solution. The models that today say Maria will not regain Major intensity said less than 48 hours ago that it would. Until Jose is either gone or has fallen totally apart I cannot say for sure what will be with Maria. I can say that it should pull North sailing past South Florida (they will be happy to wave goodbye) and it could come awfully close to the coast of the Carolinas. With any luck it will be picked up by a frontal system and taken out to sea. Should that front not grab Maria, then we may have to deal with Maria down the road. Due to upwelling with cooler waters due to Jose continually looping over the same waters the fuel is not currently there for Maria to regain Major intensity. Things often change. And, some shear my exist down the road for Maria.
Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for all information as they are the bottom line. But as always for more information go to Spaghetti Models online as Mike has a pleuthora of information be it loops, maps, models and the whole enchilada. I'll be back refreshed and ready to talk about Maria and any other tropical systems we have to deal with down the road. And, again we are watching an area in the SW Caribbean carefully to see if anything might develop there. It's a favorable area for this time of year and convection has been congregating.
As for the damage from Maria .. power is out, people have lost their homes, their rooftops and mud slides have created havoc, destruction and probably sadly death. It is what it is... it's another of the 2017 Category 5 Hurricanes that have made landfall. Add in the earthquake in Mexico City where they are still looking for survivors. I'll be adding my prayers, for what they are worth, and giving charity to the groups who help survivors of the storms and earthquakes. Be well and may we have better news to talk about down the road then the trio of Category 5 Hurricanes that made the 2017 Hurricane Season historic.
Models
Generally good.
Some concerns there..
Intensity models below:
It stays strong and then weakens some.
However...
Models are horrible at intensity forecasting.
I'd expect it to intensify in the short term.
A frontal boundary begins to approach.
Late down the road.
That would cause some shear.
IF timing is off...
It misses the front.
A ridge builds in above it.
Due to that "however"
I do think Maria could get close to the coast.
The high pressure ridge may strengthen.
I'm talking way down the road.
We have to watch the high pressure.
Best place is on the WV Loop above.
Jose and PR
This highest elevation in Puerto Rico is 4,393 feet. There are mountains along the backbone of the island. And, Hurricane Maria is tracking across the width of the Island and as Maria is a storm small in size the mountains will have a larger impact on her than had she been huge in size such as Irma. On one level the mountains weaken Maria some, on another level small systems ramp up in intensify fast so it may be a temporary weakening not to celebrate about that much. Once back over warmer water, being a compact hurricane, it should become a Cat 5 again soon. And, it will in the most simplistic way in the short term follow Jose so where Jose goes so should Maria go. However, I know there is always a however, rarely does a hurricane exactly trace the track from the one that went before. Jose opens up the door for Maria to escape North and let Florida continue their long term clean up from Irma. However, how close Maria comes to the East Coast will rely on how wide of an opening Jose will make for Maria. Think of this like two children playing in the woods, the first one leaves painted rocks with arrows to show the one behind it which way he went. But, will Maria follow exactly or will Maria do what's best for Maria. Again..... Hurricanes try to stay alive and away from high pressure following Low Pressure (In this case Jose) so what the High Pressure does also has it's own part in the future track of Maria.
(IN ADVANCE... there may be some typos as I am proofing this after I go shopping for the Jewish Holidays and I'll update later this afternoon. Sorry for any mistakes but I just got back from Florida and are still unpacking and rushed for time... )
While you have this time to celebrate not being a Category 5 before she becomes one again I might suggest to get to know Mike's Spaghetti Models better. There is so much information there on that site that you could spend days getting to know different parts of it. And, yet most people go to the main screen and what the main screen at the top shows is the basics. We have two Hurricanes in the Atlantic both affecting land as I type this and Maria may go where Jose has boldly gone already. However, Maria has always been pretty direct in movement and intensity whereas Jose has been a looper. If only the weather from Jose would say offshore as neatly as this cute graphic below. I mean really does Hanna-Barbera make the graphics for the NHC? Sometimes I wonder... note the map below and compare and contrast.
There are many satellite loops on Mike's site.
The water vapor loop is below.
Maria will want to go where it's moist.
It's tropical after all.
Away from the dark black...
..or the muddy, maroon reds.
Maria is cut off from Lee.
You can see that above.
I'm not going to go deep on the NHC discussion this morning or their guidance package. For now this is straight forward and simple. The one thing we have learned, repeatedly, this season is the 3 day product is good and the 4 and 5 day produce it iffy; that continues with Maria . . . You can read the discussion yourself. I'm posting the "main points" you need to pay attention to as there are no surprises in the discussion other than we are not sure what Maria does down the road ... but we have a general idea. It follows Jose. We have been saying that for days.
So let's look at Jose. Remember we were talking for days that New England might not escape totally from Jose without dealing directly with weather impacts? So yeah... that happened. Rather than Jose going out to sea (we didn't expect that) he is looping, again and again. However at that latitude his wind field spreads out (as we have said incessantly already) and his weather is far from the "center" of Jose so ... that happened. Tropical Storm Warnings for parts of New England. And, note we are not saying the "center" of Jose is making landfall but he is sort of blowing windy kisses towards Nantucket. The graphic that shows this best is not the NHC cone. Doesn't get much simpler than that and a really cute, smart guy once told me to Keep it Simple Silly and I am... so Jose is blowing kisses to Maria and Maria wants to follow Jose. Plain and simple. Well........for now.
The typical cone.
As usual....
How close does it get to the Carolinas.
Then how close does it get to ???
I really dislike the NHC cone.
So let's look at a map from Canada.
Canadian Hurricane Centre.
They do their own graphics.
They are better.
Sorry just telling it like it is...
This is a map.
It shows details.
It's got a cone.
The middle of the cone
Details.
It shows Jose .. up North.
It shows Maria...down South.
It shows Maria following Jose.
Nuff said ... for now.
As for our looper Jose.
He does what he does best.
Yeah...
Go to NHC site.
Read all about that graphic.
Main issue here is below.
I and everyone else online who does what I do has been telling you for days that Jose may impact Southern New England (including Cape Cod) and there would be beach erosion along the beaches of New Jersey. And, NHC discussion has tried hard to direct Jose out to sea and each update wanders back and forth slowly trying to get the forecast correct. As I have said before over and over a looper always loops and it does so to stay alive. If you were dying in the desert while trying to get from point A to point B you would not be following the map the NHC put out for you but along the way trying to find water to stay alive. And, that is what Jose is doing... he's knocking on doors of closed gas stations along the way trying to find water and in this case water would be gas for him to keep on going, looping and looping until one day... finally he goes out to sea or gets exhausted from looping. I'd say water temperatures will be impacted however he is already looping in cold waters and always walking the line between tropical and subtropical so that's a mute point.
One thing I have learned this Hurricane Season is less people than I thought actually go to the NHC site and get to know it. As I said earlier, Mike's site is rich in details, yet most people just look at the front screen as it if's a Snapchat image getting ready to look at the next image. If you don't understand that, you may not have a Snapchat account. But you get the idea and now days people go to other sites that repackage the graphic from the NHC and put pretty graphics of their own and then the average Joe moves on and checks out the Mexican Earthquake and to see who #Rocketman is and if we are or aren't going to war with Korea or if there was a terrorist attack in Europe or why Jimmy Kimmel is trending in Twitter.
Part of the problem is the NHC as they move so slowly in a fast paced world they almost become irrelevant as they refuse to stay relevant and timely. In a world where Joe Jr can go online and see the actual data from the recon plane and find out fast that the pressure in Maria has been dropping down below 909 MB they have no time or interest in waiting to see on the next scheduled advisory the NHC will bring up the winds. They get it... the pressure goes down and the winds go out and most likely the NHC will put out a special update and by that time they are sadly irrelevant for those who are most interested. And, many aren't interested they are checking out celebrities and watching Netflix and keeping up with Maria on Snapchat. It's a fast paced world and we move even faster than a New York minute these days and that includes baby boomers like me who talk to my kids on whatever social media they are using and that's a fast moving target itself.
They are the bottom line and their work hard on their site to explain how it works. Why don't you study it over the next few days while Maria begins her northward trek. I don't think there are youtube tutorials but you never know.
The next part is finding other voices you trust online, as it has become apparent to me that most people just repost something their friend sent them or share on Facebook what their Aunt Martha posted. There are great sources, good sources, okay sources and "oh my gosh what is he saying" sources. There are people posting great graphics and doing graphical shoot outs with models to see who best can show you the model. Sigh....... go to spaghettimodels.com and see what works best for YOU. But, if you are going to really follow someone's advice make sure they really know what it is to be in a real hurricane. A hurricane, a Major hurricane, is NOT a snowstorm or a Noreaster or a Winter Storm. It's a whole different sort of animal and unless you have been in one and watched it rip parts of the roof off of one house, leave another mostly untouched as a large flying object did not knock the shutters off your friends house but yours went flying in the wind ... they are clueless. They are good with graphics and great with computer programming and they have studied the details in college and aced courses but until they have been out there like Cantore or Goodloe they are merely watching an interactive video game. They may be great at playing the game but they don't feel it inside ... they can't feel the tremor of the building under their feet, the pain in their ears as a hurricane brings low, low pressure nor the sound of the roar of the wind over the nonstop rainbands slamming into the house they pray is holding together.
And for anyone who says "the Florida Keys" are just fine they have to clean up I'll add get a life or wake up and smell the coffee. I'm sorry there are stuctures standing and that all traces of life were not erased but spoiler alert those homes that don't look so bad from the air or as you drive by have all been damaged. Even the nice, expensive white boxes on pilings meant to withstand a Cat 5 need repair. Some trailers were smashed to smithereens and their debris smashed into another home that is badly damaged and others oddly look just fine. It's as if Irma was a tornado not a hurricane. I've seen it up close and without going into details there isn't a structure in the Florida Keys (Lower and Middle Keys) that does not need some repairs and many will need to be repaired and rebuilt or the lot will be sold to someone else who wishes to live in paradise while they move back to wherever they came from before they bought the beautiful cottage on Cudjoe Key or in Marathon. They can fish somewhere else ... And others will stay even if it means facing another hurricane next year. But don't think every thing is hunky dory. Lastly if you do not within 48 hours start ripping out moldy walls, floorboards and panels then you are kind of screwed. And, as the first responders were looking for bodies and being sure you could drive across the highways home no one was allowed in so by now the mold issue is as big as the roof leaking and the windows being blown out. It's easy to say it's not so bad when you can go home to your nice air conditioned home that has the most minor tree damage and go on with life. Life is not going on so fast in the Florida Keys or Naples as it is in Miami Dade county where gas is available again and power is back on (though I have some friends without power still) and the cell towers are working again. The oak tree was trimmed and the palm tree actually fell over rather then doing it's bending dance but it was a tree trimmer storm and you didn't get the real hurricane.
As for a voice I like who does easy to understand graphics here is one below. I'll be adding more at the bottom of this blog today and updating at the top. Look him up on Twitter and do not tell me you don't do Twitter. You go to the bathroom and flush the toilet right? It's that easy. Easier than Facebook as it doesn't beg you to post or tell you how people are responding to your posts. Make a name, it takes about 5 minutes at the most. Go online and find what you are interested in and choose your news sites and regularly scan the news and tweets. You never have to tweet, post a meme or show everyone your cat loves looking out the window or that your child now smiles cute. Just do it... it's super easy and you will get news from reliable sources in real time. I follow the Cranky Weather Guy below. He's not all that cranky but he does have excellent information. Maria's future is that easy to understand and you don't have to wait for the NHC (the bottom line) to put out a scheduled carefully worded advisory. When the new models come out... meteorologists update almost as fast as my kids drink cafecito, do their make up or eat their picture perfect sushi in Florida on Snapchat. Trust me Twitter is easy and as Dabub says if you just want to follow him or me you can get information faster, but pretty sure you'll follow more than just me or him. He also has a website, but he's been trying to come back up to speed after Irma messed up his home turf in Jacksonville. http://dabuh.com/forecast/
As for me...
I have the Jewish High Holy Days coming up tonight and they run through late Saturday. You can Google it but most of you who have followed me over the years know this dance of the Jewish New Year hitting at the same time as the peak of the Hurricane Season. The 1926 Great Miami Hurricane actually made landfall on Yom Kippur that will come along down the road. I am in Raleigh (currently home base) for this year though it seems I'll be back in Florida for the final part on Simchas Torah (most likely) so I'm sort of a moving target this year. I'll be updating after the holiday late on Saturday. I will update later today in between cooking sweet foods and unpacking from my recent trip to Florida.
I learned much on this "vacation" and interviewed many people. When the tropics quiet down I will go long on what I learned. One is that cone needs to go... it doesn't explain the complexities of a hurricane or a tropical system like Jose. This picture was taken in St Marys Florida just North of the Florida Georgia Line and the boats that were washed ashore from the storm surge FAR TO THE NNE of IRMA WHILE Irma was down near Naples still did not prepare anyone from what really happened. There is an eye, an eye wall, storm surge and weather associated with the hurricane that dramatically rearranges the lives of people far from the eye. And in a world where every student of meteorology trying to get his doctorate degree hoping to get a job at the NHC is able to put out elaborate upgraded model versions someone at the NHC should be able to put together a better map with more detail showing you what could happen for people in any particular area. The boat below actually is called the S.S. Minnow... so keep that in mind next time you think you have a cute name for your new boat. There are also sailboats, big ones, wrapped up around the Minnow and the dock is out and until it is fixed no one is taking day trips to the Cumberland Islands. No one I interviewed could remember this sort of damage in St. Marys and that makes sense as Bryan Norcross said that he had never seen on air he had never seen a hurricane like Irma. One of my favorite small towns, trying to pull it together far from the center of the cone that was aimed at the Florida Keys.... Miami or Tampa. Nuff said
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter. Your homework if you are not already on Twitter during the next few days while I'm dipping apples in honey and eating sweet foods with friends wishing and praying on a good year is to make a Twitter account.
My son who is a Jewish Music Producer and is better at graphics than the NHC put this up and I'm going to use the nice graphic the same way I take from everyone else ... wishing you all a very safe, healthy, happy, wealthy ... creative, sweet New Year. Pray for those that were affected by Irma and Maria and Harvey and please give charity when you can to those in need. The Jewish New Year is going to be 5778. It's a thing...
Sandy Koufax didn't play in the World Series on the High Holidays and well I don't write online about them either... it's a thing. But I will be back and I promise you this Hurricane Season is going well into early November or late October so there are many others to pay attention to and I know you all are on Spaghetti Models and listen to Mike on Facebook Live so... handing this over to him. I know he's got it... he's incredible. As for the NHC... fix those cones please....
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
