Summer Solstice 2018 - Flooding in Texas As Expected from No Name System - Mid Atlantic Heat & Weather. Tropical Thoughts.

Only real discussion today is how much rain Texas actually got from a system with no name that originated in the tropics as was briefly labeled Invest 91L. I like to call it #X91L as in today's world it seems everything needs a Hashtag. How much flooding there was will be evaluated today though late yesterday it was very sketchy in some areas and even if it doesn't have a name the result is the same. I'm also curious where the rain is going down the road and it seems it's going to where all the weather has gone as of late. Graphic below from Cranky on Twitter. 

http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e062118.htm

What is in a name?

Won't ask why Cranky chose Storm Hamster.

There are things I don't question.

Happy to have their input.

@crankywxguy

Some thoughts from Twitter

As so often happens in late June.

Texas and Tex Mex area got slammed with rain.

Shelters are open in several areas.

As far as the rest of the Tropics.

Oddly the only game in town is off of Africa.

It's a short lived area to watch.

Generally anything strong there....

...fizzles in the cool waters of June.

Still it begs us to watch.

Note the colder water is the NW of the wave.

African wave. 

More to follow.

Sometimes waves are hard to see.

Showing the SAL image below.

It's current.

The wave is the area of missing SAL.

Each wave takes a bite out of SAL.

Each new wave finds warmer water.

At some point the water warms up.

The SAL is less of a factor.

Waves spin up into systems.

Well sooner or later they do.

There has been much talk on social media about a cooler than average MDR (Main Development Region) and the possibility of El Nino coming on stronger later in the year. There is also some discussion on Kelvin Waves that help give pizzazz to tropical waves helping them develop being aligned in such as way as to help a few of the early westbound, tropical waves in a moisture starved part of the atmosphere swimming in cooler water. Time will tell. At some point the water will warm enough to support some development. The later a wave develops - if it develops - the further West it gets and the less likely it is to be a Fish Storm. The term "Fish Storm" for newbies means that they get stronger faster and tend to curve gracefully to the NW and swim out to sea like a fish. Waves that had problems developing in marginal conditions often can end up like Andrew in 1992 that didn't really develop until later, was almost deactivated and around where the Great Labor Day Hurricane spun up changed directions, tactics and intensified close in to a Category 5 Hurricane aiming for the Miami area. So understand each year and every set up in the Tropical Atlantic has it's own problems to worry on as the saying is so true in that it only takes 1 hurricane; especially a Camille or Andrew to wreck your world. This is 2018 and it is NOT 2017 and there will be less named storms, probably way less ACE and few years in history will compare to 2017 with regard to ACE and tropical misery.

I agree with Mike.

Each year stands on it's own.

Even below average years...

...produce Killer Hurricanes.

This should be an Average Year.

Mike @tropicalupdate (was he so smart to grab that Twitter Handle?) suggested last night on Twitter  that people watch the video I posted below. It's a good video. Much of the information has been out there discussed constantly on Twitter, however Twitter leaves much to be desired and it's way better to listen to Phil Klotzbach explain his thoughts than to read them in parts on Twitter. Like Phil I love Twitter as it is a fantastic source for live reports of weather events in real time that provide us with good information (and discussion) faster than we were able to receive such information previously. As always you have to weed out the nonsense of fake information but it's very relevant and it gives us a new way of devouring and sharing information/knowledge. There were meteorologists years ago who studied hurricanes by reading ship logs and piecing together pieces of information to see the whole picture of what happened and where it happened. If the ship went down in the middle of the Atlantic there was no ship log to read and radio was not invented so there were no "last radio reports" to study to piece together what happened. There was a time before we had radar and a time before we had satellite imagery and a time before we were able to share live breaking weather events in real time as they are happening as we do in Twitter today. You can follow Phil on Twitter @philklotzbach.  

I have great respect for Phil, but the only thing I want to say is that although we all look to the MDR for hurricane action and yes #ACE is highest when that part of the world has low shear and warm water with long tracking CV Hurricanes but disaster can strike and often does from hurricanes that form closer in and are more "Homegrown" sorts of trouble. So keep that in mind while speaking on the cooler water temperatures near Africa out in the MDR region of the Atlantic. To name a few Major Hurricanes that rocked our world that formed close in and the list is way longer that what is below... know that sometimes a storm that rapidly intensifies close to landfall is harder to prepare for or predict than a hurricane that has been heading WNW around a Bermuda High obviously set to make landfall in PR or Florida the way Hurricane Maria and Hurricane Irma did. And, few years will ever have as many hurricanes that could not develop without becoming Major Hurricanes. 2017 was a year to remember and study forever. I'm also adding that Phil is doing an awesome job keeping the memory and lifetime work alive that the incomparable Bill Gray began and his many students are continuing today. 

You may want to Google the following historic hurricanes to see where they in fact formed and they did not form deep in the MDR region. 

Camille

Great Labor Day Hurricane of 1935

Sandy

Katrina

Mitch

Hurricane Camille

Hurricane Katrina

Hurricane Sandy

Camille technically was the remnant of a CV wave that did not form. Camille formed in the Caribbean as did Sandy. Katrina formed off the coast of Florida (hitting Miami first as a hurricane before moving into the GOM) in the same area as the 1935 Hurricane. So understand on one hand the MDR is cooler now, it will warm up, but it will not produce the number of hurricanes that we suffered through in 2017. However, storms that form close in and rapidly intensify with less lead time to prepare and evacuate are their own breed of trouble.  Sandy also slammed into Cuba before becoming the huge East Coast threat later delivering a large blow a good part of New Jersey and New York. So again remember data is interesting to study, but the bottom line is that you need to prepare no matter how much shear is there in the GOM today and how cool the water is in the MDR as things have a tendency to change after July 20th when the real part of the Hurricane Season normally begins. 

Thank you.

So those are my thoughts on the Summer Solstice as we are officially into Summer even though we have been dealing with the heat for the last several weeks. On a playful let's have fun level I bought a new eye shadow palette from Cargo that is called Havana and is filled with tropical shades and well put together with names that reflect Havana and in general the tropics. I'm in Raleigh this year for the Summer Solstice. Often in the past I was in Key West visiting friends and even once in Seattle where the day is really, really long. This year I'm here so the closest I can get to tropical vacation is playing with my make up and listening to a Jimmy Buffett song.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps. Always be true to yourself. Whether you are an academic or a salesman be true to yourself. Whether you are a teacher or a life long student be true to yourself. Whether you are an artist who sings, dances or writes or a philosopher or brain surgeon be true to yourself. Enjoy the things you love and do what you love and share what you love with others... as long as you are trying to make the world a better place than how you found it. If you don't like the world the way it is... help make it better and if you don't like the ending of a movie..... get out there and make up your own story. 

Cuba could be in play later in the 2018 Hurricane Season as could the Mid Atlantic region. Time will tell.... I'll be here blogging and sharing it all at Hurricanehabor.blogspot.com and on Twitter @bobbistorm. 

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2016/06/ts-danielle-forms-why-we-need-to-watch.html

Winter Solstice... Are You Traveling for the Holidays? Snow Wishes and Rainy Kisses

It's cold and rainy in Raleigh.

Not freezing but getting colder.

Seems the Christmas Weekend forecast is an ever moving target in parts of the country. And what happens in one part of the country can affect others not really living there. Let's say for instance you are leaving LA to fly to see your parents in NYC and you have your typical non-stop inexpensive flight that makes a stop in Chicago. Your trip may be severely impacted by wintry weather in the Chicago area. Let's say you are driving from Miami to NYC to see your parents and your sister flying in from LA for a family reunion for the holidays. You may have a long, messy drive up I95 and when you get there you can flip a coin whether the forecast will verify or not. Then there's areas West of the Appalachian mountains that may get crappy weather that could bring snow or just bring more frigid rain so transferring in Atlanta or Charlotte to that family reunion in NYC may put you in shared misery with the sister flying in from LA. Why doesn't anyone stay in one place anymore???

Your Aunt Martha who doesn't like to fly may be nervous about taking Amtrak into Penn Station even though she's thrilled she's not going to get stuck on an airplane in Atlanta because there was or wasn't a fire that turned the power out.

Does anyone really want to travel in this age of virtual reality when we can all do Facetime while opening our presents without battling the elements or the thought of flying, driving or taking the train. Makes you wonder when Amazon or Google are going to come up with that transporter they used on Star Trek. Pretty sure a lot of people would prefer taking their chances with that then traveling this holiday weekend.

Have you ever noticed they make everything these days into an ornament? But, I'm digressing.

The forecast for Christmas weekend has changed so often that I really don't want to put my thoughts onto the blog here just yet.

The freeze line is staying near the Virginia border as they seem to be hogging Jack Frost and holding him hostage. People in North Carolina don't want freezing weather, however they do want snow. Kind of hard to get snow when the temperatures are in the low 50s at Noon. Unless cold wet air moves down this way we will continue wishing on snow and being wet as we take our morning run.

Rain remains in the SE

Note Great Lakes = winter weather (duh)

Wyoming.... well it's Wyoming.

If you live in the SW...

...stay there ;)

TWC is doing cat photo contests. I'm not a cat hater. I like cats. But obviously there is a lack of weather to talk about.. if they are doing pet picture contests. 

Michael Ventrice puts it well.

And Accuweather....

...well they don't have much to talk about.

Snow in the Great Lakes is par for the course.

Hope springs eternal.

Keep hoping.

Tomorrow is the Winter Solstice.

Yes, winter begins tomorrow.

Officially!!

It's like this... I grew up in South Florida. As a young adult I lived in LA. I'm kind of used to there not being snow during the holidays. Bright neon lights strung up in palm trees while sun baked, brightly burned tourists wandered around town smelling of either Novacaine or sun tan oil. Winter meant the invasion of the NY tourists (snow birds) and hurricane season was far away. We stayed inside in our beds late at night with the AC on high while getting in the mood by watching White Christmas late at night on whichever channel was showing it. If Old Man Winter wants to be a kill joy and keep all the snow in Alaska this year (and the Great Lakes) then... life will go on. Make a Margarita, put on a Jimmy Buffet CD and deal with it!

https://www.thespruce.com/fresh-margarita-cocktail-recipe-759317

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps.... if you really must obsess.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/usa

Winter Solstice .. Game On Winter is Here to Stay. But Rain Not Snow for Many These Holidays

No that's not a Survivor Finale.

Nor is it the Fiji Islands.

It's Seattle at the Solstice or more specifically Fremont.

http://fremontartscouncil.org/winter-feast/

Fremont is a funky place any day of the year.

It celebrates the Solstice with festivals.

I was there one year for the Summer Festival.

I can't really show you those videos.

You'll have to Google it!

But for those who hate the short days of winter.

Know tomorrow is the shortest day of the year.

That's got to be a reason to party!!

I used the capital of the USA for the time.

You can check with this site for your town.

https://www.timeanddate.com/calendar/december-solstice.html

Yes the Winter Solstice is here...

South Florida refuses to participate.

Northern Florida is a team player.

South of I-4 no they don't want to play.

You can make out the large High that is holding on tight to S Florida.

You remember it from the Hurricane Season.

What is the Winter Solstice really?

Winter is officially here to stay!

The freeze and frost line is far to the South.

However the snow is not going to fall for the holidays over the East Coast.

If you want snow that bad go to Colorado skiing!

Chilly water down there in the tropics.

A nice loop to watch by the Enya song below.

And Winter Came...

I wish I could give people who want snow better news.

But think of all the places you can go and things you can do..

...if it doesn't snow on Christmas.

I mean really in Miami we do the holidays without snow all the time!!

In short sleeves and sandals outside under the palm trees swaying.

Swaying with the palm fronds :)

You really don't need snow for the holidays!

Though a boat makes it so much finer :)

So even if it doesn't snow...

You can show your holiday spirit...

Be happy, be generous and share the love.

I'll be updating in real time if and when some weather shows up.

Til then I'm shopping, mailing things out and watching loops.

Mind you I am cold in Raleigh this December.

Very cold. My toes are cold.

Very cold... 

But my winter will be interrupted by a trip to Israel in January.

To the Israeli Riviera ...

(that's what she said...)

So I'll be saying goodbye to North Carolina for a few weeks in January.

Is that cool? I'll be blogging from Israel ;)

Maybe on the beach!

My daughter's boyfriend proposed in one of these planes over Netanya.

That was then this is now.

They live in Miami.

 I'm going to meet the Israeli family. 

Kind of like a birthday present!

Never been there ...go figure....

Adore my son-in-law!
 Getting in the spirit here and sharing with y'all...

So I'll just count down the days til warmer weather.

And tomorrow maybe I'll have hot chocolate?

Or a Starbucks Green Tea Latte?

Do something special tomorrow!!

When home in Florida I like to go to Key West!

What I'll do tomorrow...

...only time will tell!

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps Good to have a good sense of humor if you are not in Key West

Personally I'd rather be here ..

...and if you are on Lincoln Road check out the parrots..