Updated!! African Wave Up to 70% onium Tropical Trouble Comes in Twos. One Near Africa Forecast to be a Fish Storm. Closer to Us EURO Model Consistently Develops It in GOM As a Weak Tropical System.

Evening Update.

The wave is about to come off.

Not the old wave swimming.

The one watching the one swimming.

Just trying to be clear here... 

In the 2 day chances to develop.

Show below.

High odds for a wave that is still over land.

5 Day has 70% odds.

RED

Discussion from NHC shown here.

Those are high odds.

No Invest yet but ....

...should show up soon.

For now models show it being a Fish Storm.

Though not buying models for a wave with no center.

Still over land.

Keep watching.

As for the wave in the Caribbean.

Models play with it but keep it low.

GFS doesn't like it.

EURO here.

We've been here before tho...

Usually the NHC errs on the side of the EURO.

Time will tell.

IF this develops it develops close to Florida.

In the Gulf of Mexico.

Shear is forecast to be light there...

..by the time the wave gets there.

Again time will tell.

I'll leave you with the Mimic loop.

What we used to call the OJ loop.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif

People ask why that wave?

Not the last wave that came off?

Why will that wave be the one?

Big money is on that wave being Florence.... 

Don't say I didn't warn ya.

If the Caribbean wave develops...

It would be the G storm.

As in OH GEE ;)

Models... 

New wave, old wave, still rock and roll to me.

I'll update in the morning.

Sweet Tropical Dreams, 

Bobbistorm 

www.spaghettimodels.com

Where to go when the NHC is confusing.

Where to go when TWC shows development.

Good discussion in real time.

Tropical Discussion on Tropical Waves Today.

A very healthy tropical wave moving closer in.

Why the NHC doesn't have a % circle up?

They will, because the Euro stays with it.

Trying to break down the confusion this morning on the various threats coming out of the tropics this next week or so. Note I say "threats" as currently there are no actual named storms, but things we need to watch while we go about our every day life if we live along the coast where hurricanes often make landfall. What is most confusing is that the area that the NHC has put on their map in yellow and orange today is the area we least need to be concerned with vs what is unseen currently on the NHC main page. What we need to pay attention to is the strong, stubborn tropical wave that is currently down by the Lesser Antilles forecast to pull more to the right in the near future. That "tropical wave" not on the main page of the NHC is battling wind shear and if the models are correct the shear weakens and the wave strengthens. Which model you are asking? The Euro model that is considered the most reliable model has been developing this particular wave into something in the Gulf of Mexico close in the to the coast around the middle of the coming week.

Currently there is an X over Africa.

A yellow X on the 5 day page from the NHC.

That X has a 10% chance of developing.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

On the 2 day page it shows orange.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

Is that confusing or what?

Now we move below to the wave with no circle.

Kind of sounds like a nursery rhyme.

This is the wave that is of possible concern.

Yet it has no circle.

Not yellow.

Not orange.

It should.

Models have consistently developed this wave.

Why haven't they put on it on their main page?

I don't really know.

No one knows.

This is why people online looking for more info.

People want clarity.

People want information.

Knowledge is power.

So much you can do today on a phone or computer.

That's the wave we were watching last night.

Still watching it today.

I think NHC can improve on the 2 and 5 day page set up.

As I said yesterday, perhaps side by side vs 2 pages.

Other government sites hint at something there on the 7th day.

They can't put anything there as NHC hasn't shown it.

Both government sites.

So this site above shows the red line.

The tropical wave is there down the road.

More good graphic we watch shown below.

1st one shows the African Wave.

2nd shows the areas to watch for tropical formation.

3rd one shows water temperatures.

Hot in the GOM

What bugs me this morning? The wave coming off of Africa and the one behind it are highlighted because the models develop them and they nothing is currently there but typical convection coming off of Africa. This area that maintained itself after falling apart (partially), staying together and flaring up still intact as a wave has great model support yet no circle. Perhaps the NHC doesn't want to yell "shark in the water" unless they are 100% sure it will develop. In this case they could at least call it "guppie in the water swimming West" and yet we are waiting for the shorter term threat to be on the map on the main page of the NHC. Note if you go back to the orange circle you will see I cut and pasted a snip of it the way I did because I wanted to show you where it will go and understand that this wave most likely will be a Fish Storm, developing faster out by Africa and moving up into the ocean. It is worth keeping this in the back of your mind that often early models can be wrong and the high allows it move more to the WNW and NW and then the models change as the high snaps back into place and it curves back to the right for a while waiting for a cold front to pick it up and take it out to sea. Fish storms like to go out to sea. It's too soon currently to know 100% what any of these areas will do, but when the Euro shows the same scenario for multiple days the consistency of the better model heightens the concerns.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2018/08/viable-waves-is-story-today-new-wave.html

Please refer to the link above for more info later.

As I pointed out yesterday in depth the water temperatures are extremely high in the Gulf of Mexico and near Florida. Should this little wave make it into the Florida Straits or cross Florida it could develop over the warm waters of the Eastern Gulf of Mexico while heading towards Louisiana and Texas. Again cold fronts are in play and unpredictable at the end of August in the South, a TD or TS being a Low moves towards the low pressure of the diving cold front but sometimes they stop diving near the coast and linger and that creates a problem.  

Again currently not a threat.

Proposed Fish Storm.

Currently a concern for the GOM

Tropical Wave down by the Islands.

Surging a bit as it moves towards the Islands.

It will continue to move towards Low Pressure.

Once it rises in latitude some.

Models consistently show this...

...models keep the intensity low for now.

I'll update later today.

If you did not read yesterday's post.

Please do.

Also TWC doing a good job today.

Not hyping the Caribbean wave.

Just showing it's there.

Relatively close in... 

Model support for a weak system.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps Good video from the TWC early coverage shown below of Hurricane Katrina. Today is the anniversary but before it went into the GOM it hit Miami. Similar pattern but not similar intensity. No models shows even hurricane force winds for the Caribbean wave and most (like the EURO) keep it at Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm status though that could change. It might not develop and just stay rain. It might get a name. Note how much the forecast for Katrina changed... over time. 

Summer Solstice 2018 - Flooding in Texas As Expected from No Name System - Mid Atlantic Heat & Weather. Tropical Thoughts.

Only real discussion today is how much rain Texas actually got from a system with no name that originated in the tropics as was briefly labeled Invest 91L. I like to call it #X91L as in today's world it seems everything needs a Hashtag. How much flooding there was will be evaluated today though late yesterday it was very sketchy in some areas and even if it doesn't have a name the result is the same. I'm also curious where the rain is going down the road and it seems it's going to where all the weather has gone as of late. Graphic below from Cranky on Twitter. 

http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e062118.htm

What is in a name?

Won't ask why Cranky chose Storm Hamster.

There are things I don't question.

Happy to have their input.

@crankywxguy

Some thoughts from Twitter

As so often happens in late June.

Texas and Tex Mex area got slammed with rain.

Shelters are open in several areas.

As far as the rest of the Tropics.

Oddly the only game in town is off of Africa.

It's a short lived area to watch.

Generally anything strong there....

...fizzles in the cool waters of June.

Still it begs us to watch.

Note the colder water is the NW of the wave.

African wave. 

More to follow.

Sometimes waves are hard to see.

Showing the SAL image below.

It's current.

The wave is the area of missing SAL.

Each wave takes a bite out of SAL.

Each new wave finds warmer water.

At some point the water warms up.

The SAL is less of a factor.

Waves spin up into systems.

Well sooner or later they do.

There has been much talk on social media about a cooler than average MDR (Main Development Region) and the possibility of El Nino coming on stronger later in the year. There is also some discussion on Kelvin Waves that help give pizzazz to tropical waves helping them develop being aligned in such as way as to help a few of the early westbound, tropical waves in a moisture starved part of the atmosphere swimming in cooler water. Time will tell. At some point the water will warm enough to support some development. The later a wave develops - if it develops - the further West it gets and the less likely it is to be a Fish Storm. The term "Fish Storm" for newbies means that they get stronger faster and tend to curve gracefully to the NW and swim out to sea like a fish. Waves that had problems developing in marginal conditions often can end up like Andrew in 1992 that didn't really develop until later, was almost deactivated and around where the Great Labor Day Hurricane spun up changed directions, tactics and intensified close in to a Category 5 Hurricane aiming for the Miami area. So understand each year and every set up in the Tropical Atlantic has it's own problems to worry on as the saying is so true in that it only takes 1 hurricane; especially a Camille or Andrew to wreck your world. This is 2018 and it is NOT 2017 and there will be less named storms, probably way less ACE and few years in history will compare to 2017 with regard to ACE and tropical misery.

I agree with Mike.

Each year stands on it's own.

Even below average years...

...produce Killer Hurricanes.

This should be an Average Year.

Mike @tropicalupdate (was he so smart to grab that Twitter Handle?) suggested last night on Twitter  that people watch the video I posted below. It's a good video. Much of the information has been out there discussed constantly on Twitter, however Twitter leaves much to be desired and it's way better to listen to Phil Klotzbach explain his thoughts than to read them in parts on Twitter. Like Phil I love Twitter as it is a fantastic source for live reports of weather events in real time that provide us with good information (and discussion) faster than we were able to receive such information previously. As always you have to weed out the nonsense of fake information but it's very relevant and it gives us a new way of devouring and sharing information/knowledge. There were meteorologists years ago who studied hurricanes by reading ship logs and piecing together pieces of information to see the whole picture of what happened and where it happened. If the ship went down in the middle of the Atlantic there was no ship log to read and radio was not invented so there were no "last radio reports" to study to piece together what happened. There was a time before we had radar and a time before we had satellite imagery and a time before we were able to share live breaking weather events in real time as they are happening as we do in Twitter today. You can follow Phil on Twitter @philklotzbach.  

I have great respect for Phil, but the only thing I want to say is that although we all look to the MDR for hurricane action and yes #ACE is highest when that part of the world has low shear and warm water with long tracking CV Hurricanes but disaster can strike and often does from hurricanes that form closer in and are more "Homegrown" sorts of trouble. So keep that in mind while speaking on the cooler water temperatures near Africa out in the MDR region of the Atlantic. To name a few Major Hurricanes that rocked our world that formed close in and the list is way longer that what is below... know that sometimes a storm that rapidly intensifies close to landfall is harder to prepare for or predict than a hurricane that has been heading WNW around a Bermuda High obviously set to make landfall in PR or Florida the way Hurricane Maria and Hurricane Irma did. And, few years will ever have as many hurricanes that could not develop without becoming Major Hurricanes. 2017 was a year to remember and study forever. I'm also adding that Phil is doing an awesome job keeping the memory and lifetime work alive that the incomparable Bill Gray began and his many students are continuing today. 

You may want to Google the following historic hurricanes to see where they in fact formed and they did not form deep in the MDR region. 

Camille

Great Labor Day Hurricane of 1935

Sandy

Katrina

Mitch

Hurricane Camille

Hurricane Katrina

Hurricane Sandy

Camille technically was the remnant of a CV wave that did not form. Camille formed in the Caribbean as did Sandy. Katrina formed off the coast of Florida (hitting Miami first as a hurricane before moving into the GOM) in the same area as the 1935 Hurricane. So understand on one hand the MDR is cooler now, it will warm up, but it will not produce the number of hurricanes that we suffered through in 2017. However, storms that form close in and rapidly intensify with less lead time to prepare and evacuate are their own breed of trouble.  Sandy also slammed into Cuba before becoming the huge East Coast threat later delivering a large blow a good part of New Jersey and New York. So again remember data is interesting to study, but the bottom line is that you need to prepare no matter how much shear is there in the GOM today and how cool the water is in the MDR as things have a tendency to change after July 20th when the real part of the Hurricane Season normally begins. 

Thank you.

So those are my thoughts on the Summer Solstice as we are officially into Summer even though we have been dealing with the heat for the last several weeks. On a playful let's have fun level I bought a new eye shadow palette from Cargo that is called Havana and is filled with tropical shades and well put together with names that reflect Havana and in general the tropics. I'm in Raleigh this year for the Summer Solstice. Often in the past I was in Key West visiting friends and even once in Seattle where the day is really, really long. This year I'm here so the closest I can get to tropical vacation is playing with my make up and listening to a Jimmy Buffett song.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps. Always be true to yourself. Whether you are an academic or a salesman be true to yourself. Whether you are a teacher or a life long student be true to yourself. Whether you are an artist who sings, dances or writes or a philosopher or brain surgeon be true to yourself. Enjoy the things you love and do what you love and share what you love with others... as long as you are trying to make the world a better place than how you found it. If you don't like the world the way it is... help make it better and if you don't like the ending of a movie..... get out there and make up your own story. 

Cuba could be in play later in the 2018 Hurricane Season as could the Mid Atlantic region. Time will tell.... I'll be here blogging and sharing it all at Hurricanehabor.blogspot.com and on Twitter @bobbistorm. 

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2016/06/ts-danielle-forms-why-we-need-to-watch.html

What's Spinning in the Tropics Tuesday Morning? XTD4? African Waves? Caribbean Convection? ULL Steals the Show..

Sunrise over the Atlantic Ocean on Visible Imagery

It's really such a beautiful world.

Watching the water vapor loop is a good way to enjoy it.

You an see all the patterns and ribbons of convection.

You can see the highs and the lows.

And when looking for rotation in the tropics.

The ULL in the Atlantic Steals the show.

Another view above with some teal blues thrown in.

It just spins and spins.

It's got XTD4 on a tight lease.

Frontal boundaries weak as they may be moving East.

Then they sort of stall out creating flooding rains.

The ULL in the Atlantic deserves an award today.

Sparing South Florida and East Coast from model madness.

And if ULL was not there those models may have been right.

Note the image below..

ULL has XTD4 on a leash.

It's going to go West.

As a weak tropical disturbance that wants to be a TD again.

What will be with the ULL?

Can't say. It's been around for longer than normal.

Models up on www.spaghettimodels.com

Doubtful any recon will go in today unless something really unusual happens. But the NHC is a fluid sort of place that goes into action when needed to protect the people as that is there job. There is a floater up on XTD4 and it's easy to monitor there as well as NRL which is currently still up. But really nothing is happening and that is thanks to the ULL that the models didn't seem to sniff out as well as they should have it seems. Models did get the location exactly right days ago, possibly weeks ago. And again the Euro beat the GFS and the rest of the pack. Euro showed a weak disturbance not formed in the spot where it is currently. It showed a weak low pressure area approaching Florida with various solutions time wise and placement wise. GFS had other ideas as shown below from an old blog post.

The Euro often showed a tropical disturbance.

A bubble in the force of the Bermuda High.

The GFS showed a stronger systems.

Weak systems go West and at this point XTD4 may do Cuba.

Or South Florida.

Or it may somehow make it into the GOM.

It's an early Pre-Season Drama.

Oddly this July is filled with drama.

He said, she said, "No I didn't say that!"

Locally Miamians are praying the rumors are true...

Then there's the Kremlin drama... 

Then there's Facebook putting out this message..

...at the top of everyone's feed this morning.

Seriously why would Will Smith's son friend you?

And in the tropics the plug has been pulled on the African Wave.

Of course if something happens it will be back.

Models for XTD4 shown below.

Looks bound for the Florida Straits.

Miami should have enhanced rainfall.

Hope it speaks Spanish..

XTD4 is basically a conundrum.

More so as it did not totally die.

As it has held on it's a conundrum.

The models made it a bigger conundrum.

Word for the day: conundrum ;)

It is a Tropical Disturbance.

A mass of tropical weather moving together.

More than a wave, not a Tropical Depression.

Wave axis with vorticity 

Note the shadow swirl on the N coast of Hispaniola 

Definition below:

Part of a larger definition.

Stages of Hurricane Formation.

Tropical Disturbance is heads up but not there yet.

XTD4 would be a good example.

Old Tweet but still good thoughts.

Just keep an eye on it.......

Watching tropics is locational.

How we watch on E coast is different from GOM..

Lastly from Twitter I'm posting this one for a reason.

Note the small blob of convection over Miami below.

Miami has had flare ups frequently such as this.

Should XTD4 go there it would be messy.

See video below of parking lots flooded again.

Again remember they paved a swamp to build Aventura.

A swamp filled with mangroves by the bay.

That said it's a nice place to live, dine or shop!

See beautiful :)

Tropical ...

It's all about location. 

The location and history of tropical activity makes us watch.

We will talk about the African waves later this week.

Still there we just aren't talking about it.

NHC back to "show me the money honey" attitude.

I always liked the wave behind the one that was highlighted.

Bigger, nicer, better center. Just my thoughts.

Upper left XTD4.

So watch the videos of some storms that came together fast in that zone.

And have a wonderful day today!

Enjoy the drama in the news or go out and shop til you drop!

Unless you want to stay home and shop on Amazon.

Work, live, love and be happy.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps It's very quiet on Twitter today. XTD4 & African Wave in Dog House.

The GFS model is in the process of an official upgrade.

That's why we been watching the Para GFS that's performed better.

Current GFS is on life support along with XTD4.

Stay tuned.

Keep reading if you want about why I posted these videos.

They show what has happened in the past.

Disclaimer .. Reminder (like Facebook..)...

XTD4 Wave is NOT expected to develop.

But other waves in that area have in the past.

So here's a bit of Hurricane History for y'all.

Current image of Gulfstream water temperatures.

Small storms like Tropical Storm Julia.

Bigger storms like Hurricane Katrina...

Again I'm taking a look back today at the formation of a few systems in this zone that have formed into storms in the past. It is worth remembering many never form and rain themselves out over South Florida and flood places like the parking lots in Aventura Mall and life goes on. 

This "zone" is prone to weak, wandering tropical waves spinning up fast and coming together over the warm waters of the Gulfstream. The key here being this happens when OTHER factors are in place and currently we do not have those factors holding out hope for XTD4 a "system" that is moving West. XTD4 is basically a "tropical disturbance" a term not so in vogue these days. It's more than a wave and but not a tropical depression. In this case it's more like a "Has Been... wannabe again" wave that never totally had it's mojo and lost what mojo it had and yet doesn't totally go away. Often when a TD unravels and fades away it's goes away. Then you have the ones that don't die completely and Zombie like spin up again. And often over the very warm Gulfstream they can spin up fast as if they form a center the water below is hot tropical fuel for storms. Fast spin up is especially common in "small systems" and XTD4 has been a small system from the get go so we continue watching where it goes. It's called "monitoring" vs tracking as we don't have exact coordinates or advisories. At any given hour it flares up, flares down and that is a visual explanation of a wave. Think of a "wave" at a football game that the fans do for the cameras. 

Aventura Mall in June 2013 with it's often flooded parking lot.

Most likely rainfall enhanced by TS Andrea moving away.

June in Miami means rain.... lot's of it.

And then the sun comes out again.

It's a tropical kind of place.

And before you start talking on GW and Miami sinking..

Aventura Mall was built on top of a swampy piece of land...

...adjacent to Biscayne Bay.

The land was about as low as it gets.

Fill filled in the low parts.

A massive city was built on top of it.

I'd love to be at Aventura Mall today.

Just my mood... 

My kids live behind the Mall by the Golf Course.

It's a paradise and sometimes it has it's moments.

Friday might be one of those moments.

For Mike and others..