System off SE Coast... Surfs Up FL ... Windy... Hurricane Season 2 Months Away. Are You Ready? Amber Sunsets and Some Thoughts on Moving Towards April.

Going to talk on the system off the SE Coast.

And talking a bit on hurricane season.

Along with a few other things for various reasons.

Before I talk on this further note....

That huge storm off the NW coast.

That is not a hurricane...

It's cyclonic....

Winter weather is far from over.

Even though we are dipping our toes into Spring.

Today off the SE coast is a small system.

Up close you can see it below.

See the tight gradients along the NE FL coast?

This is a system that is coming together.

TWC is on the scene.

Surf's up.

Windy.

Stormyish.

Locals are barely talking on it.

But for weather people it's weather.

Guessing they are shooting videos for Daytona Beach...

..future episodes about NASCAR or ??

If they had been in Cocoa Beach they'd have seen hail!

Huge hail.

Florida city sees so much hail it looks like piles of snow https://t.co/gIfzPI8O3V via @10NewsWTSP

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) March 27, 2019

When I was a kid in Miami I never saw snow.
But one day the ground was covered with hail.
I mean as in huge hail stones....
No green school yard it was all white like snow.
Happens...
Mike knows it happens.

Mike's Facebook Page has the video.

https://www.facebook.com/mikesweatherpage/posts/

In a month of so another similar system could get a name.

Subtropical Storms are always possible there in May.

It's April in 5 days. 

De Facto April today.

This loop shows the story.

Freezing cold clouds to the North.

Warmer water to the South.

Tail end of fronts...

Swirls that get stuck..

Swirls that swim up along the coast.

Caught in a busy flow so out to sea.

But things begin to change day by day now.

Beach by beach the waters warm up.

My brother posted this picture he took from a S FL beach.

https://www.instagram.com/ronnieschwartz/

He obviously went to the beach early.

Wind not as strong in Miami-Hollywood area.

But that sense of weather out there somewhere.... 

Ironically Jo Malone sent me this advertisement seconds later.

So I'm naming that picture of his Amber Sunrise :)

I have a love hate relationship with Jo Malone.

Most of the scents I hate or they hate me.

Way too strong, expensive 

And sometimes just so wrong.

But sometimes they get it so right.

I have allergies so......

... have to try them on carefully.

Beautiful packaging.

If I had the money I'd buy it for the packaging.

Silly huh?

That's kind of how I feel about TWC being in Daytona.

It's not that strong a storm but hey if you have the money.

You fly off and stand on the beach looking serious :)

And do live updates.

Choose wisely which beach to travel this time of year.

If you want wind... OBX is always good.

If you want warm water... South Beach is always good.

For today Daytona is definitely breezy.

Multiple alerts for high surf and rip currents.

As for my local beach which basically is Wrightsville in NC

(when not in Miami...)

They have a link on their site to water temperatures.

Rising water temperatures coming.

That link takes you to this page below.

This is why OBX usually gets hurricanes in August and September.

Doesn't really get bath tub like until then.

But each year is unique in it's own way.

Link to Wrightsville Beach NC NWS

https://www.weather.gov/ilm/WaterTemp-WrightsvilleBeach

That's me staring at the water in March of 2017.

It was a rare warm March day.

Headed to the beach.

But didn't go in because not a tourist.

Miami girl in NC ya know...

Back in Miami Beach...........

... the water temperature is 77 degrees!

http://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/South-Beach_Miami/seatemp

That's more like it.

Another image from their site is shown below.

Anomalies ...

Gulf Stream warming up.

Beaches near the coast cold still.

Pockets of warm water in the GOM

And just off the Southeast coast.

Prime regions for early development.

Areas to watch in May are same areas in June.

June comes too soon for people who hate hurricanes.

And never too soon for trackers and chasers.

It's kind of like Jo Malone perfume.

Some hate it as it's very strong and often lingers....

.... others love it because it's strong and lingers.

What do you love?

Today I'm in love with the word Amber.

I fell in love with this song below because....

... I loved the lyrics "caramel colored sunset sky"

Awesomeness.

Maybe "amber sunset" needs a country song ;)

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps... kudos to Dabuh he's been on the money.

Before The Weather Channel began talking about it.

Tropical Cyclone Iba Off the South American Coast Near Brazil. Rare South Atlantic Storm.

That's the coast of Brazil.

It's not China and it's not South Carolina.

And that's Iba... 

Tropical Cyclone Iba.

Unless you are a real tropical cyclone person...

..you probably didn't hear about it.

It doesn't show up on the NHC main page.

It says nothing going on in the Atlantic.

I guess they mean North Atlantic..

There are a lot of basins to be fair.

And though not unprecedented it's rare.

2019 Storms ... NRL doesn't show Iba.

But Iba is there none the less.

What's interesting to me is to look back over other years that produced a South Atlantic Cyclone and to see if there are any similarities we can see between this year and that year. This is the time of year when all the mitigating factors that contribute to hurricane development in the Atlantic Basin are studied to see which may be factors in the particular hurricane season.

Everyone online has been watching models.

Mike is always watching the tropics.

Models are hinting at development of a Low.

But that low is not likely to get a nod from the NHC.

The NWS will be issuing any necessary watches and warnings.

High surf, wind at the coast...

Who can say .... it hasn't formed but seems it will.

Rob's Crown Weather Services is a paid service.

He issues daily reports.

It's worth noting he's been talking on it for a while.

And DaBuh who never let a good wave go to waste....

...has been watching and posting online.

You definitely want to follow him if...

1) you do tropical weather

2) you live near the Florida or East Coast

3) if you surf anywhere near those beaches.

#OBX Low Pressure....

Very possible.

Each new system has followed a similar set up.

Back here to the Carolina coast.

Interesting how there was a large front and then....

..a small mini reflection here shown to the Wouth of it.

As we move deeper into the 2019 year....

..more fronts will fall apart and dangle off the SE coast.

They will need to be watched carefully.

Dabuh has been watching water temperatures a lot lately.

As in daily watching important areas with early development.

The water off the Yucatan is hot enough to boil eggs..

..okay it just feels that warm.

Bathtub Warm.

Early season development likes very warm water.

When the air temperature is in the high 80s in the Florida Keys.

And when the Yucatan is this warm.

Trouble is likely to happen early.

There are a lot of maps on Spaghetti Models.

You might want to scroll down and look around.

They could become useful sooner rather than later.

Just because there's no tropical updates from the NHC...

...doesn't mean there isn't weather in the tropics.

Take care and I'll update soon.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Yellow X Over NC - Development Near OBX? 10 - 20% Chances Something Could Develop. Questions on Cool Water By Africa in the East Atlantic and Why You Shouldn't Really Care. Makes Great Click Bait and a Researcher's Dream But Close In Hurricanes Could Happen in 2018. Despite the Headlines Waves Keep Rolling Off of Africa. Come September We Need to Remember Climo Usually Wins.

Woke up this morning to the site of a Yellow X on the NHC 2 Day map just to the West of me. I always joke that Greensboro gets more weather than Raleigh and obviously that includes yellow 10% areas of possible development from the NHC.  Some models spin this up and spit it out into the Atlantic where it moves in Derecho manner across the open water zooming out to sea. Some models do have it following the warmth of the Gulf stream close up the coast but off the coast sucking in as much energy (available heat from warm water close in) and sliding up towards the banks of Newfoundland. The EURO is more bullish on this system than the GFS that does not see anything of consequence evolving. Remember that as it will be interesting to see which model read this set up better than the other. Well, interesting for those of you who find that interesting ;) 

So let's look at the models.

Using the 850 mb relative vorticity version here of Euro model to try and show the exact "center" of this possible tropical disturbance I'm showing three images below. Again, it is not currently tropical but it may present itself as tropical later in the forecast period. Confusing I know but it's the only real show in town so going to explain it as best as I can in a simplistic way. The orange splotch over NC is the yellow X with 10% chances over North Carolina.

It then shoots it out near OBX into the Atlantic.

Kind of like spitting out a watermelon seed...

It's on it's way the next day.

Fast moving blip.

Could it attain TD status?

Possibly.

Water there is warm.

Remember this map above for later discussion.

For our purposes today there is warm water there.

It has a very narrow window to develop.

Sustainability is a big word used often these days in other arenas of discussion, but going to use that word here today in relation to tropical development as water needs to be warm enough to sustain tropical development. Kind of that simple. It also needs low shear that will not interfere with development.  If you have a well developed low pressure area move over the warm waters off of the Carolinas where there is low shear it has a window where it could develop into a more truly tropical system. 

There is something about the way these low pressure systems over land and how they evolve as they hit the warm water that sometimes spins up a named storm. This is a perfect example of how a set up can produce a tropical system given the right circumstances. And, this is why I am more worried about the water temperatures close in to the coast on our side of the world in June and July than I am about the water temperature near Africa that is historically still cold this time of year. Again, sustainability is a factor and evolution is the process that can make a difference when it comes to Homegrown Tropical Systems. The set up is not ideal, but it is there enough to warrant the low numbers given it from the NHC; that being 10% in the next two days and 20% in the next five days. 

Perhaps the GFS feels there is too much shear there?

Currently today there is severe weather on the maps.

Watches and warnings up from NWS.

Live News feed on Twitter.

There are three points to take away from this blog today. The first is that we currently have a "Yellow X with 20%" chances on the NHC map for a possible, fast forming, fast moving system that could take on tropical characteristics. Many are asking if this could be Beryl, other's see a Tropical Low or Tropical Depression while others see nothing of significance forming or to talk about. Time will tell who is right, but Dabuh watches the surf along with the weather so anything that brings the surf on is of significance to him.

 Two the over concern with the cool water temperatures out near Africa in late June is a matter of Academic significance and scientific discovery.  It matters little how cool or hot the water in the East Atlantic is if you live in coastal towns that have a history of home grown development close in giving little warning time before landfall and making huge coastal impacts. Over the very warm waters of the GOM or Florida hot water and low shear close in can be the best set up available for rapid intensification of a developing tropical system. Watch how fast Wilma intensified just off shore of the Yucatan and one can only imagine what it would be like to have had satellite imagery of the Labor Day Hurricane that formed in the Bahamas in 1935.

When we talk about ACE it is basically the sum total of the intensity of the hurricane season as a whole. That often includes intense hurricanes that form in warm pools of water in the Eastern Atlantic early on and far away that tend to turn NW out into open waters becoming beautiful ocean spinners. They are also beautiful in that they spare the East Coast and the Islands direct hits such as last year's Hall of Fame winners Maria and Irma. There are years where ACE is high and hurricanes happen everywhere yet make landfall nowhere. Those are golden years for hurricane researchers to learn more about the various stages of development and steering conditions that impact hurricanes. However they often stay far away from land, yet oddly years with overall low ACE can present dangers close in that leave their imprint on the coastal towns for years and the list of those storms is long. So yes on one level we will (in theory) have less long tracking CV Hurricanes moving WNW slowly at 15 MPH giving us photogenic images of true Atlantic Hurricanes. On the other hand it means nothing as to what the chances are for landfalling hurricanes in Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina or the Mid Atlantic States in the same places slammed by Hurricane Sandy that came up out of the Caribbean, across Cuba and surfed her way North over the very warm Gulfstream. A look at 1985 is another excellent example of just this sort of problematic years where hurricanes made landfall often yet most formed close in and few formed near Africa. The Southwest Carib was mostly shut down as this year could be as well as shear there is high. Two systems formed out near Africa and made it across, yet many formed closer in and there was a traffic jam of landfalling hurricanes.

Ask anyone who went through Gloria....

...how memorable 1985 was.

Keep in mind Gloria formed in the heart of the season.

When water by Africa is at it's warmest.

Gloria formed September 16th.

Climo almost always wins.

It's really not about quantity but quality.

Thankfully it could lessen the danger to the Caribbean.

Cooler waters by Africa means less early hurricanes.

The Islands are rebuilding slowly.

Florida is covered with blue tarps still.

They can use a break in tropical action.

But it means little to the the SE, GOM or NE.

Look at the map below.

June, July and August are about W of 55 Degrees.

Usually, most years.

Note the comment below:

Chick knows Carolina weather.

Again ACE is an academic term and we love to throw it about online and use it as a measure for how "active" a Hurricane Season may be or how busy it was in retrospect; it also makes great headlines and click bait in quiet times such as June and July. In real time you need to worry on what may be knocking at your door after rapidly developing close in the way Andrew did after wheezing it's way across the Atlantic constantly in danger of having the NHC pull the plug only to blow up in waters closer to the coast the same way the Labor Day Hurricane did in 1935. There was NO Ace until late August in 1992 when Andrew developed, yet we spent years rebuilding in South Florida after Andrew. 

Yesterday Allan Huffman posted his thoughts on this topic of water temperatures being below normal close to Africa, yet pointing out that the cool water pool of water ends at 55 degrees West. Is the cup half full or half empty? There are two ways to look at every question and we need to not let our guard down about the 2018 Hurricane Season that will hopefully, thankfully not be as active as 2017.

Watch the discussion that followed.

If you are not on Twitter...

...you should be.

With all it's annoyances....

...Twitter is a great place for real time discussion.

Rob from www.crownweather.com is 100% correct and people need to not let their guard down because there is a current anomaly of cold water near Africa as it doesn't mean that the danger of hurricanes forming close in (especially in this particular year I'll add) do not pose a serious threat and people need to prepare properly for the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season. It also doesn't mean that come September we will have to remember hurricanes form in the East Atlantic the way Gloria did in 1985. I'll write on this more over the next few days. But it's true and Bastardi mentions it often that no models showed the dramatic decline of warm water in the distant Atlantic and that makes me wonder how good the models really are when it comes to long term forecasting especially with regard to this year. Often they are great, however in swing years as this one may be if the much whispered El Nino develops, but some years have contrasting signals and their own unique problems so I beg you to take this year and every year seriously and do what you do need to do to get a hurricane plan set up for how you would deal with a landfalling hurricane or very, slow moving strong Tropical Storm that may dump copious amounts of rain and slam your area with tornadoes. Let's leave the scientific terms used for evaluating a season to the academics and the researchers and prepare as if this is the year that Andrew or Gloria is going to come knocking on your door!

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/prepare/ready.php?elq=996f8a8301544a6f9a72e6ca07b89d7e

Oh and #3 .... despite cool pools of water by Africa and high levels of Saharan Dust the waves over Africa keep on coming. The last one, the newest one earned a purple splotch on the maps we watch to see where development could happen. A little smirk there yesterday on that last wave. The one behind the smirky one has quite the structure, however it's going to plop down in mighty cold water way too early to expect development just yet.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter.

If you are wondering how I am dealing with a Yellow X over my head... I made a tropical breakfast of Avocado Toast and Mango Slices ;) A girls got to do what a girl's got to do . . . and am loving the cooler weather on the balcony listening to the excited birds singing while waiting on the rain to fall.