Yellow X Over NC - Development Near OBX? 10 - 20% Chances Something Could Develop. Questions on Cool Water By Africa in the East Atlantic and Why You Shouldn't Really Care. Makes Great Click Bait and a Researcher's Dream But Close In Hurricanes Could Happen in 2018. Despite the Headlines Waves Keep Rolling Off of Africa. Come September We Need to Remember Climo Usually Wins.

Woke up this morning to the site of a Yellow X on the NHC 2 Day map just to the West of me. I always joke that Greensboro gets more weather than Raleigh and obviously that includes yellow 10% areas of possible development from the NHC.  Some models spin this up and spit it out into the Atlantic where it moves in Derecho manner across the open water zooming out to sea. Some models do have it following the warmth of the Gulf stream close up the coast but off the coast sucking in as much energy (available heat from warm water close in) and sliding up towards the banks of Newfoundland. The EURO is more bullish on this system than the GFS that does not see anything of consequence evolving. Remember that as it will be interesting to see which model read this set up better than the other. Well, interesting for those of you who find that interesting ;) 

So let's look at the models.

Using the 850 mb relative vorticity version here of Euro model to try and show the exact "center" of this possible tropical disturbance I'm showing three images below. Again, it is not currently tropical but it may present itself as tropical later in the forecast period. Confusing I know but it's the only real show in town so going to explain it as best as I can in a simplistic way. The orange splotch over NC is the yellow X with 10% chances over North Carolina.

It then shoots it out near OBX into the Atlantic.

Kind of like spitting out a watermelon seed...

It's on it's way the next day.

Fast moving blip.

Could it attain TD status?

Possibly.

Water there is warm.

Remember this map above for later discussion.

For our purposes today there is warm water there.

It has a very narrow window to develop.

Sustainability is a big word used often these days in other arenas of discussion, but going to use that word here today in relation to tropical development as water needs to be warm enough to sustain tropical development. Kind of that simple. It also needs low shear that will not interfere with development.  If you have a well developed low pressure area move over the warm waters off of the Carolinas where there is low shear it has a window where it could develop into a more truly tropical system. 

There is something about the way these low pressure systems over land and how they evolve as they hit the warm water that sometimes spins up a named storm. This is a perfect example of how a set up can produce a tropical system given the right circumstances. And, this is why I am more worried about the water temperatures close in to the coast on our side of the world in June and July than I am about the water temperature near Africa that is historically still cold this time of year. Again, sustainability is a factor and evolution is the process that can make a difference when it comes to Homegrown Tropical Systems. The set up is not ideal, but it is there enough to warrant the low numbers given it from the NHC; that being 10% in the next two days and 20% in the next five days. 

Perhaps the GFS feels there is too much shear there?

Currently today there is severe weather on the maps.

Watches and warnings up from NWS.

Live News feed on Twitter.

There are three points to take away from this blog today. The first is that we currently have a "Yellow X with 20%" chances on the NHC map for a possible, fast forming, fast moving system that could take on tropical characteristics. Many are asking if this could be Beryl, other's see a Tropical Low or Tropical Depression while others see nothing of significance forming or to talk about. Time will tell who is right, but Dabuh watches the surf along with the weather so anything that brings the surf on is of significance to him.

 Two the over concern with the cool water temperatures out near Africa in late June is a matter of Academic significance and scientific discovery.  It matters little how cool or hot the water in the East Atlantic is if you live in coastal towns that have a history of home grown development close in giving little warning time before landfall and making huge coastal impacts. Over the very warm waters of the GOM or Florida hot water and low shear close in can be the best set up available for rapid intensification of a developing tropical system. Watch how fast Wilma intensified just off shore of the Yucatan and one can only imagine what it would be like to have had satellite imagery of the Labor Day Hurricane that formed in the Bahamas in 1935.

When we talk about ACE it is basically the sum total of the intensity of the hurricane season as a whole. That often includes intense hurricanes that form in warm pools of water in the Eastern Atlantic early on and far away that tend to turn NW out into open waters becoming beautiful ocean spinners. They are also beautiful in that they spare the East Coast and the Islands direct hits such as last year's Hall of Fame winners Maria and Irma. There are years where ACE is high and hurricanes happen everywhere yet make landfall nowhere. Those are golden years for hurricane researchers to learn more about the various stages of development and steering conditions that impact hurricanes. However they often stay far away from land, yet oddly years with overall low ACE can present dangers close in that leave their imprint on the coastal towns for years and the list of those storms is long. So yes on one level we will (in theory) have less long tracking CV Hurricanes moving WNW slowly at 15 MPH giving us photogenic images of true Atlantic Hurricanes. On the other hand it means nothing as to what the chances are for landfalling hurricanes in Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina or the Mid Atlantic States in the same places slammed by Hurricane Sandy that came up out of the Caribbean, across Cuba and surfed her way North over the very warm Gulfstream. A look at 1985 is another excellent example of just this sort of problematic years where hurricanes made landfall often yet most formed close in and few formed near Africa. The Southwest Carib was mostly shut down as this year could be as well as shear there is high. Two systems formed out near Africa and made it across, yet many formed closer in and there was a traffic jam of landfalling hurricanes.

Ask anyone who went through Gloria....

...how memorable 1985 was.

Keep in mind Gloria formed in the heart of the season.

When water by Africa is at it's warmest.

Gloria formed September 16th.

Climo almost always wins.

It's really not about quantity but quality.

Thankfully it could lessen the danger to the Caribbean.

Cooler waters by Africa means less early hurricanes.

The Islands are rebuilding slowly.

Florida is covered with blue tarps still.

They can use a break in tropical action.

But it means little to the the SE, GOM or NE.

Look at the map below.

June, July and August are about W of 55 Degrees.

Usually, most years.

Note the comment below:

Chick knows Carolina weather.

Again ACE is an academic term and we love to throw it about online and use it as a measure for how "active" a Hurricane Season may be or how busy it was in retrospect; it also makes great headlines and click bait in quiet times such as June and July. In real time you need to worry on what may be knocking at your door after rapidly developing close in the way Andrew did after wheezing it's way across the Atlantic constantly in danger of having the NHC pull the plug only to blow up in waters closer to the coast the same way the Labor Day Hurricane did in 1935. There was NO Ace until late August in 1992 when Andrew developed, yet we spent years rebuilding in South Florida after Andrew. 

Yesterday Allan Huffman posted his thoughts on this topic of water temperatures being below normal close to Africa, yet pointing out that the cool water pool of water ends at 55 degrees West. Is the cup half full or half empty? There are two ways to look at every question and we need to not let our guard down about the 2018 Hurricane Season that will hopefully, thankfully not be as active as 2017.

Watch the discussion that followed.

If you are not on Twitter...

...you should be.

With all it's annoyances....

...Twitter is a great place for real time discussion.

Rob from www.crownweather.com is 100% correct and people need to not let their guard down because there is a current anomaly of cold water near Africa as it doesn't mean that the danger of hurricanes forming close in (especially in this particular year I'll add) do not pose a serious threat and people need to prepare properly for the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season. It also doesn't mean that come September we will have to remember hurricanes form in the East Atlantic the way Gloria did in 1985. I'll write on this more over the next few days. But it's true and Bastardi mentions it often that no models showed the dramatic decline of warm water in the distant Atlantic and that makes me wonder how good the models really are when it comes to long term forecasting especially with regard to this year. Often they are great, however in swing years as this one may be if the much whispered El Nino develops, but some years have contrasting signals and their own unique problems so I beg you to take this year and every year seriously and do what you do need to do to get a hurricane plan set up for how you would deal with a landfalling hurricane or very, slow moving strong Tropical Storm that may dump copious amounts of rain and slam your area with tornadoes. Let's leave the scientific terms used for evaluating a season to the academics and the researchers and prepare as if this is the year that Andrew or Gloria is going to come knocking on your door!

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/prepare/ready.php?elq=996f8a8301544a6f9a72e6ca07b89d7e

Oh and #3 .... despite cool pools of water by Africa and high levels of Saharan Dust the waves over Africa keep on coming. The last one, the newest one earned a purple splotch on the maps we watch to see where development could happen. A little smirk there yesterday on that last wave. The one behind the smirky one has quite the structure, however it's going to plop down in mighty cold water way too early to expect development just yet.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter.

If you are wondering how I am dealing with a Yellow X over my head... I made a tropical breakfast of Avocado Toast and Mango Slices ;) A girls got to do what a girl's got to do . . . and am loving the cooler weather on the balcony listening to the excited birds singing while waiting on the rain to fall. 

Major Hurricane Irma and the Ridge.. Models, Historical Hurricanes and Extremely Severe Weather in Raleigh with Tornado Warnings..Thank You Harvey Remnants.

Irma. Category 3 Again.

Eye wall replacement cycle over.

The map I like for you to pay attention to..

 If you are in the shaded area of this grid you need to carefully pay attention to the storm even if you are far out from where the storm is as it's the best measure of who needs to worry vs watch. Wind probs are as far North as Ponce, PR and down by Barbados. Note they correlate to the map above from the NRL and that is why I tell you to pay attention to that map.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT1+shtml/012050.shtml?

Donut shape of Irma.

Cat 3.

The High has become to dig in...

The Westward Motion has begun.

Watch for that WSW dip.

Very good discussion at 5 Phttp://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/012050.shtml

Please click and read it for yourself. It's better to read this discussion and get familiar with it than what every person scared on Facebook says about Irma. It's kind of like rumor control. It's the truth vs hype. The Cone is shown below. Note at any point the High can push it more to the West than this cone shows currently. Easy to look at it and say it's going to curve up to the Carolinas but again it depends on the High.

Models.

I just don't want to focus on models today.

Sunday is my day for Model Discussion.

You get the idea..........

....it's coming this way.

You can see Irma below...

..as well as what I'm dealing with as I type.

Yeah.. Look at Inland Harvey.

Just as problematic as always.

You can see Irma out there.

Far away.

Harvey is still causing problems here.

Close up radar of my area.

I'm writing this as Raleigh is under siege from extremely severe weather from the remnants of Havey mixing it up with a cold front that is trying to move South. The mixing the air has caused (and this is a so far list):

Flooding
Hail the size of baseball (not common in NC)
Tornado on the ground
Thunder, lightning.
Heavy Rain.
RDU closed Friday night at the start of Labor Day Weekend.
2 Active Tornado Warnings.
Structures with roof collapse.
Trees down.
Since I typed 2...there are now 3 Tornado Warnings (i type fast)
Huge Power Outages.

There was discussion we would get bad weather but the remnants would go to the North but seems as always Harvey makes his own decisions.

For those of you playing Hurricane Poker a Big Ridge beats an Upper Level Low. A Big Ridge is forecast to build to the North of Irma keeping her Westbound ... until the edge of the Big Ridge. That is the basic steering currents of every long tracking Atlantic Hurricane born in Cabo Verde. Add in the possibility of a trof or low (you'll hear both terms) over North America and the final scene is yet to be written in this weather drama. The players are there and it's a game of improvise in ways as the atmosphere is fluid and there are no dress rehearsals. It plays out in real time and the cities that do not get Irma get a rose and get to exhale and further upstream people worry and prepare.

The cost of gasoline has gone up as predicted by Harvey hitting an area rich in oil, gas and messing up the Colonial Pipeline. Oddly Hurricane Harvey took a bite out of the Labor Day Weekend as many have decided to stay closer to home. A long ride down to the beach is no longer in the cards for many. Several people interviewed on TV today said they feel they should stay close to home and maybe think on how to prepare in case another hurricane makes landfall. There are two types of people. If we are going to get washed away in a hurricane we may as well go party today and those who go shopping FINALLY for food, batteries, medicine and things they may need in case a hurricane really makes landfall near their town. Which kind are you?

People from Florida up to Maine are nervously eyeing Hurricane Irma, back to being a Major Hurricane again, and wondering where she will go if she does not go out to sea. I'm pretty sure survivors of Andrew, Hugo and Fran will to to church and temple this weekend and say a prayer it stays away from land. People who have been there, know what it means to be there...

I want you to look at the 3 hurricanes below. It is very possible that Irma does something like they did in it's own unique way. I have to post this before we lose power as our lights are flicking. No proofing, sorry but it's crazy here in the Raleigh general area. So yeah, tracks like those below could be analogs for Irma.

My TV station just lost connection with their reporters.

Stay tuned. 

I'll be back. 

Rather than worry... prepare.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Tropics Quiet. What Are You Doing For July 4th! Fireworks? Beach? Wave Watching.

Remember that wave that the NHC thought had potential.

Hmnnnn

No yellow circles. Quiet day in the tropics....

You know those daily struggles we all have? Whether you are trying to stay on a diet, go daily to the gym or trying to stay on a budget - you know it's an up and down process. Some days we are better at working towards our goals and other days we feel down in the dumps and overcome; our energy zapped with no will power. Then in a few days the Moon goes into Virgo and we suddenly feel the need to clean out the attic and organize the back of the closet. Okay, it might not be an astrological aspect but when the moon goes into Virgo I know I suddenly want to stay home and organize. I'm a Capricorn so maybe Virgo just works well for me and I'm feeling better. Virgo rules those wild waves that role of Africa and take aim at one of five basic paths. September remember...

I know you are thinking this is way too much astrology for your skeptical Virgo brain, but I've had way too much discussion on the most talked about Eclipse since the one the ancients wrote about after the fact and gave up eating, sex, drinking and ran for their lives when they didn't know why the devil took the sun away and hid it. So you can indulge me a little while I debate getting a hat or a V neck tee shirt for the most over merchandised event we have had since the Millennium and I'm sure many of you remember that!

I'm into astronomy, astrology and events that leave indelible imprints in our brains as a collective we love events that unify us in buying tee shirts and booking passages (money permitting) for cruises to watch the whales and an eclipse at the same time. But this has become the merchandising event of the year. And the travel sites that pay big bucks to TWC are paying trust me there are Bed and Breakfasts in Oregon and Charleston that are already sold out.

So let's talk most likely hurricane paths across the Atlantic Ocean.

a) Through the Islands, under a strong High Pressure straight into Central America.
b) Through the islands, curving up just a bi taking aim through the Yucatan Passage at the GOM.
c) Up and over the islands or just brushing the islands, missing the big ones towards FLORIDA.
d) Aiming for the islands but some trof grabs them pulls them NW bypassing FL to Carolinas.
e) Swim little fishy out to sea, be a Cat three but no one watches me....cause I'm a Fish Storm.

Basically with a little variation those five paths are the basics. Now sometimes you get two of the above that merge together such as Betsy and Andrew. Or sometimes you get a Donna like storm that looks like it's going to New Orleans after bulldozing it's way through the Florida Keys and then the track snaps back across Florida and runs the Eastern Seaboard. The point is the track down the road is up for grabs.

This is the wave and it's nemesis that is you note larger than the wave, stronger and going to win the battle with the tropical wave emerging off of Africa. One one side of the ring we have a small, nicely wrapped contender with not enough weight on him. In the other side of the ring we have a contender with ripped muscles and looking hungry.

You get the idea.

Poof goes the Yellow Circle 

We have a champion!

It's June. 

Those waves need to bulk up some!

And they will....

Add in the water is still cold this time of year.

Brrrr........

Ever try going swimming on the Outer Banks in June?

Oh my goodness soooo cold.

It's not the beaches of Miami...

Looking at the loop above you can see the wave that never developed but stayed alive and is kicking up color and weather in the Islands. Still going strong... keep watching it and see how it matches up with the shear at the door of the Caribbean. Something fun to watch.. maybe.

Old danging front across Florida worth watching. 

And more waves coming off of Africa and there is one that looks to have some potential. And that would be why many are looking at long range models for after July 4th. Seems Uncle Sam paid someone off to keep those waves from forming until after his birthday. So stop worrying on the eclipse and figure out what your plans are for July 4th. I'm pretty sure there's a fire works show if you are into tons of smoke and noise or a concert with carefully choreographed fireworks and if not there's always that place in the hood where you live where every kid over the age of 10 has a treasure chest of fireworks he's shooting off for all the neighborhood to enjoy. Except that one neighbor that calls the cops and then the cops come, park down the block and watch the fireworks and then drive away. Happens. And yes I posted this song for the message and for great pics of the Fontaineblue in the 1980s. I grew up a few blocks away, had my prom there and one of my son's knows all the hidden exits to get in to watch concerts. Miami Kids. One generation hung out in the Boom Boom Room and other generations sneak into concerts on the beach and Victoria's Secrets fashion shows. Growing up in Miami is not like any other place in the world. I'm prejudiced....

Pics from the vault.

Powerhouse discussion on where to set up the big ones.

July 4th in the Meyer house was always interesting.

Then there was the year my daughter sold fireworks in Dania.

Summer jobs. 

Half Price off discounts.

Cousin's front yard show was bigger than the Orange Bowl.

Well ...seemed like it.

BBQ

Beaches.

Concerts.

In the front yard on the circular driveway upsetting half the neighborhood or taking all the big vans into the backyard and turning the lights on to light up the yard and blasting the music. Kids grow up and then they get lazy and watch from the show below from their balconies up high in their tropical balconies looking down on the Golf Course where little kids shoot off rockets.

So you just keep on counting, 1 2 3 4 and one of those waves will be something to do something big, bad and dangerous. And then might just curve out to sea and be a fish storm like those sharks at the beach that scared everyone out of the water and then swam off to another beach to scare some other bathes. Analog to the shark scenario would be Hurricane David ;)

1979 a year to remember ...

...to think of this year perhaps.

So enjoy the day, enjoy the week and I'll be back when something starts to spin or some model somewhere goes "oh my goodness" and til then make plans for the 4th of July and enjoy the possibility of a weekend to party, laugh and buy tee shirts!

Love and Kisses... 

Besos BobbiStorm

Follow me on Twitter @bobbistorm for way faster updates.

Ps Growing up we could see the fireworks shot off at the Fontainebleau from our sidewalk. Some kids have a mall, Miami Beach kids have Lincoln Road, the Eden Roc and the Fontaineblue ;) And once in a while a visit by the ultimate tourist of all.. a West Indies Hurricane! And I believe after July 4th the fireworks in the tropics will truly begin..a bit early this year!!